Five Early-Round Fantasy Football Landmines to Avoid

August 21, 2022

Andersen cautions against taking these five early-round fantasy football players in your upcoming draft as they could end up being busts in the 2022 NFL season.

Every fantasy manager has their own draft strategy. Making a clear plan before it's your turn to pick is essential and will go a long way in your pursuit of a championship.

As much as it is important to identify players and positions that you want to target, you should also know which players you plan to avoid. Why take a player you're not faithful in with one of your premier picks? Here, we'll identify five early-round landmines to avoid—that is, players being drafted in the early rounds who have glaring red flags and should be passed on at all costs.

For the sake of this article, "early-round" encompasses all players with an ADP inside the first 48 picks.

Deebo Samuel

ADP: 18th overall (WR7)

Samuel finished as the WR3 in fantasy football last season. Although most of his production came in the passing game, it was his running usage that allowed him to finish in the upper echelon of fantasy receivers. Armed with a new extension, can we expect a similar season from Samuel? The answer is no.

Heading into 2022, we have to expect Samuel's rushing production to take a massive step backward—regression toward the mean, if you will. Not only does he not want to run the ball as much, but the 49ers are notorious for changing up the look of their backfield game by game.

Samuel will still get involved on the ground, but the backfield belongs to Elijah Mitchell, and perhaps Jeff Wilson Jr., Tyrion Davis-Price, and Trey Sermon. Don't forget that Trey Lance is also going to run more than Jimmy Garoppolo did.

Samuel still provides upside as a receiver and should be drafted accordingly. The problem is that he's currently being drafted as a hybrid-type wide receiver and running back when he's not expected to return to the same role he had in 2022.

If you factor out Samuel's rushing yards, he finished the year with 77 catches, 1,405 receiving yards, and six touchdowns through the air. That equates to 253.5 fantasy points, which would have ranked as the WR12 in 2021. 13 points fewer and you're looking at a dropoff to WR17.

The bottom line is that Samuel is a talented player, but he's being drafted at his ceiling, which was 2021. He's also going to lose touches to Brandon Aiyuk, who has been the star of the 49ers training camp so far. If you can get Samuel in the mid-to-late third round, that's fine. Otherwise, he's far too risky to take with your second selection.

Saquon Barkley

ADP: 13th overall (RB7)

Barkley has been one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football for years now. After finishing as the RB10 in 2019, fantasy managers debated where to draft him the next season. As it turns out, everyone was too high on him because he tore his ACL in Week 2 and missed the rest of the season.

After he rehabbed, the debate surfaced again. Could Barkley be trusted in 2021 as he returned from injury and played in a woeful offense? People took their chances on him and he let them down with an RB30 finish.

Now, as the same debate persists for the third time in as many years, it appears fantasy managers have yet to learn their lesson. Barkley is being drafted as an RB1 when he hasn't finished as such since last decade. Sure, injuries got in the way in 2020, but you can't just write that off. Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Barkley isn't alone. It seems like several Giants skill position players have been hyped up by the powerful New York media, only to disappoint fantasy managers. They keep getting these second (and third) chances, yet nothing seems to come of it.

Almost every week last season was supposed to be Kenny Golladay's breakout game, but that never happened. Evan Engram never got over the hump throughout his years in New York despite analysts and managers alike continuing to view him as a high-end TE2 due to his receiving upside. Even Daniel Jones has been getting the "expected breakout" treatment summer upon summer. At last check, he has never finished a season better than QB24.

There's nothing wrong with drafting Barkley. It's a good strategy to draft running backs based on volume, and we know for a fact that Barkley is going to be the clear-cut No. 1 option in New York's backfield as long as he's healthy. The problem, though, is his hefty price.

Taking Barkley at an ADP of RB7 means that he should be the best running back on your roster. That's a risky choice and sets your team up for failure when the Giants' offense can't stay on the field (again) or Barkley gets banged up (again).

Mark Andrews

ADP: 26th overall (TE2)

This one stings because it was awesome to see Andrews break out and finish as the TE2 last season. He remains one of the most skilled tight ends in the NFL, but fantasy managers need to temper their expectations when drafting Andrews, especially if they're doing so as early as the second round.

Andrews was the top Ravens playmaker last season, but it was out of necessity. He ran 514 routes in 2021, a hefty uptick from his 331 routes in 2020. The tight end was given an increased opportunity and he ran with it. However, he's not going to see the same opportunity in 2022.

The 26-year-old's increased route-running and subsequent production came as a result of injuries to many Ravens skill players. Most notably, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill all suffered season-ending injuries before Week 1, leaving the Baltimore backfield in shambles for the entire year.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson also missed five whole games (plus parts of others). The Ravens' plan heading into the season had been no secret: run the ball with Jackson and the running backs. But they couldn't do that effectively with all the injuries, so they turned to a more pass-heavy approach. As a result, Andrews found success.

Heading into 2022, the Ravens' skillful runners are healthy again and the team is expected to be very run-heavy, perhaps more than it has ever been during the Jackson era. Andrews might still be Jackson's favorite target, especially now that Marquise Brown is gone. However, his routes run are going to take a massive step back, and his production will follow. Andrews being drafted at No. 26 overall is reflective of his peak season in 2021, not the role he's due for in 2022.

Diontae Johnson

ADP: 39th overall (WR18)

Johnson's presence here stems from a massive shift in the state of the Steelers' offense this offseason. Johnson fared quite well when Ben Roethlisberger was the quarterback. The veteran didn't move around much, and whenever there was a pass play cued up, he would take the snap and look to throw as quick as possible.

That translated to some sweet success for Johnson, who saw an insane 169 targets and finished the year with 107 catches, 1,161 yards, and eight touchdowns. The result? Johnson checked in as the season's overall WR8.

Because of Roethlisberger's quick release times, Johnson finished the year with an 8.2 ADOT, which ranked 72nd in the NFL. That drove his success because he saw a lot of shorter targets and therefore was able to finish with triple-digit receptions.

Teammates Chase Claypool and James Washington saw higher ADOTs, checking in at 11.5 and 11.6, respectively. Roethlisberger didn't throw the ball down the field as much, and as a result, Claypool's receptions, yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points decreased from his rookie year to his second season. Washington also had his worst season since he was a rookie in 2018.

Flip the page to 2022 and we have a whole new story. The quarterback position is a major question mark, with Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph competing for the starting job. Rookie Kenny Pickett isn't ready yet, but he is certainly waiting in the wings.

Regardless of who plays quarterback, all three of those players air the ball out more than Roethlisberger did near the end of his career. The chart below shows the air yards per attempt totals of Roethlisberger, Trubisky, and Rudolph over the last two seasons in which they earned meaningful playing time.

With the Steelers almost guaranteed to throw the ball less and throw the ball further downfield, Johnson's production is going to suffer. Not only will he have fewer targets on short routes, but he will have fewer targets period.

His current ADP reflects his high value in a Roethlisberger-led offense, which doesn't exist anymore. The Steelers have turned the page to a new pool of quarterbacks and fantasy managers need to adjust accordingly. Regardless of whether you prefer safe or high-upside selections, you can certainly find much better options than Johnson within the first four rounds.

Gabe Davis

ADP: 21st overall (WR46)

Every year, the fantasy football community seems to identify one player with whom they completely fall in love, leading to a huge rise in that player's ADP. This year, that player is Davis. The hype surrounding Buffalo's No. 2 wide receiver has grown exponentially, leading to a staggeringly high fourth-round price tag.

Let's start by looking at Davis' stat lines through his two seasons in the NFL.

Those are very similar lines and show that Davis has been a consistent depth piece in the Bills' offense. His reliability allowed him to earn Josh Allen's trust and receive more meaningful snaps. His finish as the WR57 in both seasons equates him to a low-end bench piece in most standard leagues.

Now, let's check out some of his opportunity and efficiency metrics.

These metrics aren't terrible by any means, and there are some data points to get excited about. His snap share, routes, and route participation from 2020 are things to get excited about. Last season's 0.44 fantasy points per route run could also translate to success in 2022, especially with Davis occupying a bigger role. (Veterans Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are currently free agents).

Going forward, Davis will occupy the No. 2 role in one of the NFL's most stable offenses, which is worth something. But is it worth a fourth-round price tag on someone who has never finished better than a low-end bench option? No, it is not.

Davis isn't going to change his skill set and be a target hog this season. He has some of the most exciting big-play upside in football, but he doesn't offer the stability needed to be a WR2 in fantasy football. After all, he has finished as a top-36 receiver in just nine of 32 career games. Davis' best-ball upside is obvious, but his weekly fantasy production is far from guaranteed.

Under normal circumstances, a player with Davis' upside and role would be worth drafting around the seventh or eighth round. They would be viewed as, for lack of a better term, a sleeper. However, Davis isn't being drafted as a sleeper. He's being drafted as a guaranteed impact player who is going to be worth starting every week, and we just haven't seen enough from him yet to promise such an outcome. He should be avoided at his current price tag.

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