What's Going On With Trevor Rogers? Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has been a fantasy baseball bust in 2022. Justin Dunbar evaluates Rogers to determine whether he is a hold, sell, or buy-low.

In baseball, it is easy to take its immense difficulty for granted. After all, these are the best athletes in the world, and at the end of the day, we are comparing them to each other as opposed to the average person. This comes with the job, though being able to stay at the top of the league in terms of performance against other incredibly special athletes is much harder than one may assume, regardless of the player's baseline talent level. Thus, when a player comes up to the big leagues and immediately performs at a high level, maintaining that level of production becomes the baseline expectation.

Regardless, every season is its own challenge, and things can change in a hurry. When that happens, we on the outside have to balance reacting too quickly with not being too late to react. Playing professional baseball is incredibly challenging as is, but to perform at a high level as a rookie only adds to the difficulty. As a result, it isn't common for a player's peak season to come as a rookie, outside of injuries, but we do see it on occasion. After all, the league can catch up to you, and when that is the case, the onus is on your to adjust.

In many ways, this appears to potentially be the case for Marlins starter Trevor Rogers. After nearly winning the NL Rookie of the Year award last year, the young lefty has struggled mightily this season, generating a sea of panic in The Magic City. Is this panic warranted, or will Rogers get back to being the pitcher he was last year? Let's do some investigating!

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Trevor Rogers: A True "Lefty With Juice"

When you think of the common spots for elite baseball players to come from, California, Texas, and Florida are likely the first to come to mind. Don't look now, though, but New Mexico isn't doing too bad for themselves:

ACTIVE MLB PLAYERS FROM NEW MEXICO

• SP Trevor Rogers (Marlins)
• 3B Alex Bregman (Astros)
• C Mitch Garver (Rangers)
• RP Ken Giles (Mariners)
• SP Chase Silseth (Angels)

Scouts often drool at the idea of an athletic, projectable pitcher, and as a 6'6" lefty, that's exactly what Rogers' prototype was heading into the 2017 MLB Draft. That being said, there are risks for a high school pitcher who is old for his class, leading to Baseball America going as far as ranking him as the 49th-best prospect in the draft. Fangraphs (22nd overall) and MLB Pipeline (25th) were more bullish on his potential, but even then, none matched the 13th overall pick draft capital he received from the Marlins, who were betting on their ability to develop him into the pitcher he could become.

Immediately, Rogers demonstrated why Miami had faith in him with a 17.7% K-BB and 3.29 xFIP at Single-A in his first professional season. Then, he added to that with a 20.6% K-BB in 136.1 innings between High-A and Double-A, which is quite impressive for a 21-year-old. Generally, a player with this type of pedigree and production will shoot up prospect rankings, but that wasn't the case for Rogers.

In fact, heading into the 2020 season, Rogers was mainly seen as a fringe top-10 prospect just in the Marlins' farm system. Now, this was much higher than the fringe top-20 Marlins prospect he had been ranked, but there was still plenty of skepticism.

Let's start with Fangraphs' report of Rogers:

"We were slow to correct our low pre-draft position on Rogers (he turned 20 the fall after he signed and we were skeptical about his breaking ball) as he enjoyed a 2019 breakout at Hi-A, with a 27% K%, 5% BB%, and a promotion to Double-A for his final five starts. The low-80s slurve is still not great and has been usurped by a mid-80s cutter/slider that, considering how quickly Rogers' fastball/changeup control have developed, should enable him to induce weak contact as he hones it. The lack of a traditional breaking ball will likely be a barrier to true mid-rotation performance, and it's more likely that, if Rogers is ever to be a No. 3/4 starter, he does so via continued improvement of a hopefully elite changeup or command, rather than the unlikely addition of a viable breaking ball."

Next, here is what MLB Pipeline had to say about his future outlook:

"Rogers lacks a true plus pitch but he repeats his delivery and commands his repertoire well. His floor presently stands out more than his ceiling, as he looks like a good bet to become a No. 4 starter."

Notice a theme here? Honestly, considering the usual labels associated with "projectable" pitchers like Rogers, it's shocking to see an extensive amount of skepticism regarding the high range of his potential outcomes. Yet, considering that he was mainly a two-pitch pitcher, the consensus was clear that his best outcome was a middle-of-the-rotation/back-end arm.

That being said, it's clear the Marlins thought much higher of him. Despite the fact he had pitched just 26.2 innings above High-A, Miami felt comfortable enough to call him up to the majors during the shortened 2020 season. While the ERA (6.11) was not ideal during that stretch, it mainly stemmed from poor batted-ball luck; he struck out 30% of the batters he faced over 28 innings, which was enough for him to finally be considered a top-100 overall prospect for Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball America.

Yet, the bust rate of back-end top-100 prospects is incredibly high; it is hard enough as is for the elite prospects to hit. Thus, considering his prospect pedigree, it was more than reasonable to assume Rogers wasn't primed for tremendous success right out of the gate. At the end of the day, though, he was ready to prove once again that "upside" is a myth.

Rogers' Stellar 2021 Season + Arsenal

It wasn't a lock Rogers was going to secure a rotation spot for the Marlins ahead of the 2021 season. However, between his underlying 2020 success and Sixto Sanchez dealing with an injury, Miami had no choice but to give him the opportunity to shine, and shine he did.

In 133 innings, Rogers struck out 28.5% of the batters he faced, posted a very strong 20.2% K-BB, as well as a 3.72 skill interactive ERA (SIERA). Now that does not quite match with the 2.64 ERA and 2.55 FIP he had - a 5% home run/fly ball rate allowed wasn't going to be sustained - but to put up those numbers as a 23-year-old rookie is remarkably impressive.

As a result, Rogers not only made the National League All-Star team but pitched in the midsummer classic. In fact, had he not missed some time for personal reasons, it's extremely likely he would have ultimately won the NL Rookie of the Year award. That doesn't happen by accident, and it was clear that he was ready to outperform expectations placed on him as a prospect. Ultimately, the arsenal was simply too strong.

It always starts with the fastball, which Rogers threw a healthy 57.7% of the time last season, equally to righties and lefties. This is a pitch that the lefty prefers to throw to his glove side (away from lefties, into righties), and although it doesn't have a strong vertical break, featured almost four inches of horizontal movement compared to average last season. Add in the low release height (5.87 ft) and it's easy to see why the pitch had so much success:

According to Baseball Savant, Rogers' fastball ranked 10th in run value (-15). Had he pitched in August, that number would have only been higher, and it makes sense. Even without the vertical ride, not many lefties can sit 94-95 MPH. Plus when you factor in the low release height combined with strong extension, it has all the underlying characteristics you would be looking for. Yet, this isn't close to being his best pitch.

Rather, that honor goes to his changeup, and for good reason. The pitch received a "70" grade on the 20-80 scale from Fangraphs coming into the season and soon became his best friend at the MLB level. After all, it induced plenty of whiffs (33.9%) and ground balls (63.9%), lesion to a very strong .229 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) allowed. Among pitchers with 100 plate appearances faced, that xwOBA ranked in the top-10 in all of baseball, and looks even better from the eye test:

I mean, what can you do with that pitch? In terms of horizontal break, Rogers' changeup is about league average, but it shines with the vertical drop it is able to get, - 5.4 extra inches of drop above average last year. Locating it down and away to righties, hitters struggled to lay off of it (45.5% chase), and you can make the case he should have leaned on it more in the future. In some way, that added to the untapped upside for this season.

To top it off, Rogers also mixed in a slider that received a swing-and-miss on 40.8% of the swings against him. For a pitcher who was criticized for not having a true third pitch, that will more than do the trick. All of a sudden, we were talking about a burgeoning front-line starter with two excellent pitches, as well as another one that was developing into a competent offering as well. Truly, the ceiling appeared to be through the roof. Unfortunately, we've spent most of the time on the floor this season.

Rogers' Puzzling 2022 Struggles

In 2021, even during a slightly turbulent second half to the season for Rogers, there were no signs pointing to future struggles. Unfortunately, baseball has come full circle for him this season.

In 12 starts this season, it has been a very rough go for Rogers this season. For perspective, let's take a look at this year's statistics in 12 starts compared to last year's numbers:

To sum it up, Rogers is missing fewer bats and is walking more batters, which is as bad of a combination as oil and water. Rogers has only eclipsed five strikeouts in one start this season, while he's only reached six innings just once. For context, he had more than five strikeouts in 68% of his starts last year, while he went at least six innings in 36% of them, compared to the 8.3%  he currently sits in both of those feats. Obviously, it's been a major struggle for him. The question, though, is one simple word: why? It's a complicated issue.

Is it an issue with his arsenal? It wouldn't appear to be so. Eno Sarris' stuff+ model does a tremendous job illustrating a pitcher's quality of arsenal with a statistic that stabilizes quickly, and Rogers checked the bill with a 102 stuff+ rating last year (95 on average for starting pitchers). This season, though, he currently boasts a 104.2 stuff+ rating, despite the fact that it only sat at 100.6 a month ago. So, his arsenal is not only checking out slightly better than last year but has improved rapidly over the past month; this is very encouraging.

So, what has been the problem for Rogers? Really, it all comes back to command, which his 98.3 location+ (100 is average) would agree with, per Sarris. That would make sense given the increase in the walk rate, but that's not all command is. In fact, his struggles locating his pitches where they're best placed are almost certainly why the strikeouts are down.

What do I mean by this? Simply take a look at his changeup. As illustrated with the video against Javier Baez above, Rogers' changeup works best down and away to righties, and that is where he located it last year:

In 2022, though, it has been a different story:

As you can see, Rogers' changeup has worked much more into righties than it did in 2021, which is not ideal- it completely aligns with their bat path, leading to decreased effectiveness. Ultimately, the pitch is getting nearly half the whiffs (19.8%) it got against righties last year (33% whiff), and is inducing fewer chases out of the zone (36%) and ground balls (53.2%) as well. He did have a similar outside location of the pitch in the last start based on his horizontal location plots, but there is still a lot of work to be done in this regard.

Really, the changeup is the instrument that drives Rogers' complete arsenal. If hitters aren't threatened by it and aren't chasing, they're able to sit much more on the fastball in advantageous counts, as we saw with Rhys Hoskins on Tuesday night:

Rhys Hoskins - Philadelphia Phillies (12) pic.twitter.com/FIi9plA2xA

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) June 15, 2022

Rogers couldn't get Hoskins to chase on his changeup, leading to a 3-1 count, and it's safe to say Hoskins knew what was coming. While Rogers' fastball does have some interesting characteristics, it's a pitch that mainly plays up due to the threat of his changeup, a la Kevin Gausman. Unfortunately, when the changeup falters, so does the fastball.

Although Rogers' slider did induce plenty of whiffs last season, it also got hit hard against lefties (.363 xwOBA allowed). As a result, Rogers made some notable changes to his slider, adding over seven inches of a horizontal break to it, transforming it into a true sweeper, as you can see here:

Now, compare this to what the pitch looked like in 2021:

As you can see, the latter pitch is a pitch much more conducive to having success against right-hand hitters with the vertical drop it possesses, while the former is more of a pitch to improve his success against lefties. He's seen fewer swings-and-misses with it this year, and thus seems to have gone back to his old slider.

Sure, it is important for Rogers to be effective against lefties, but his success ultimately comes down to who'll he face the most. Having another pitch that can be effective against right-handed hitters is paramount, though it is clear he doesn't quite have the feel for it; it's taken a back seat to his fastball and changeup as of late. Ultimately, the feel should come, though it will take time, as it will with all of his offerings.

Why is this happening? It's impossible to tell. This is clearly an arsenal that can succeed at a high level. At the end of the day, though, it's not an arsenal that can succeed without above-average command, and right now, that's been a problem for him. Now, as evidenced by the tweaks he has made with his slider, he clearly has a growth mindset, and I trust he can eventually sort things out.

When will that happen? That is an ultimate mystery. It could come on Monday against the Mets, or it could come next season. Regardless, though, the most stable reasons he has been successful in the past are still true now. This is still an extremely talented pitcher, and as we've seen with MacKenzie Gore's turbulent minor-league career, Dylan Cease, Triston McKenzie, and others, talent generally will win out, especially when the issues all stem from some inconsistencies with command.

Overview

Baseball is hard, folks.

That being said, since these players are all the best athletes in the world, it is easy to lose sight of this. However, it's very hard to perform at a high level for multiple seasons, particularly as a pitcher; one minor mechanical problem can throw everything walk.

For Trevor Rogers, it may seem as though the league has figured him out, but that isn't the problem here. Rather, the lefty simply has to have issues with his command, particularly with his changeup, which is throwing off his entire arsenal.

See, as righties have no issue making contact and laying off against his changeup, Rogers has fallen much more into troubling situations, leading to hitters sitting dead-read on his fastball. Then, you add him experimenting with a new changeup and then not trusting it, and there is a lot going on here.

Yet, this is a pitcher with above-average "stuff" as a left-handed pitcher; those prototypes don't grow on trees. Eventually, that should win out, though it is impossible to know when that will occur. Hopefully, it's as soon as next Monday, but regardless, faith needs to be maintained. We're living in Mister Rogers' neighborhood, and that should show itself soon enough.

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