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Joe Ryan is a potential 2022 fantasy baseball draft sleeper and ADP value pick. Target the undervalued SP in the later rounds of fantasy baseball drafts.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 180
CURRENT ADP: ~212 overall
ANALYSIS: Ryan was part of the trade that saw Nelson Cruz head to the Rays and Ryan had yet to make his MLB debut prior to the trade. He only made five starts for the Twins (26.2 IP), but impressed with a 4.05 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 6.0 K/BB. Granted, it's a very small sample but his MiLB numbers support this.
In 226.0 IP in the Minors, Ryan had a 2.67 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 6.15 K/BB. ATC projections have Ryan with 141 K in 134.0 IP and all projection systems have Ryan having a K% between 24.6% - 26.1%. If he performs as I suspect he will do and the Twins are in the playoff hunt, as I suspect they will be, he could go over 150.0 IP.
The trend of starting pitchers throwing fewer innings will likely continue given the shortened Spring Training this year and teams looking to be more protective of their starters in the early weeks of the season could mean 150 innings ranks in the top-50 of workloads this year. And his body of work will be better than most.
Ryan's fastball isn't one to light up the radar guns (averaging at 91.2 MPH) but it has plenty of life on it to get batters swinging and missing.
Ryan will likely need to develop his slider, curveball and changeup further and have at least two of them be good pitches to become a true frontline starter but he's shown plenty of ability throughout his young career and his slider and curveball are above average already.
Ryan has been given the nod as the Twins' Opening Day starter, confirming their faith in him and with an ADP of ~216, he's primed to outperform his ADP handsomely.
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