Potential Home Run Risers: Fantasy Baseball Breakouts

March 24, 2022

Which hitters could see a jump in home run production based on Statcast launch angle numbers? Justin Dunbar evaluates these fantasy baseball draft targets who could be breakout performers in 2022.

Oftentimes in sports, we expect progression to be linear, and mainly with young players. However, as simple as it sounds, any player can get better. Particularly in baseball, which tends to be more skill-based than a sport such as football or basketball, development can happen at any time. Just take a look at the San Francisco Giants. Coming into last season, they weren't to projected win more than 70 games. However, with unexpected career renaissance performances from several veteran players, including Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, and Evan Longoria, they wound up with the best record in the MLB. How did this happen? Well, with a new coaching staff in place, they were able to guide their players to new heights, regardless of their age.

See, player development isn't just for prospects and young, ascending players. We've seen plenty of players make clear improvements at various stages of their careers. For pitchers, it could be a mechanical tweak that unlocks more velocity or a pitch-mix change. For hitters, there are a lot of different ways to improve, but the most common is a swing change. See, there are plenty of hitters who have a lot of raw power, yet it doesn't translate to game power. Why? They're hitting too many ground balls. A swing change, though, fixes that.

Today, we'll be looking at four hitters who would benefit tremendously from an increase in launch angle. All of them have plenty of raw power and would increase their stock significantly if their launch angle were to raise. Who are these untapped power hitters? Let's look at these potential breakout candidates.

3B Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Coming into last season, there was a lot of hype surrounding Ke'Bryan Hayes, and for good reasons. For starters, this is a player that has long been at the top of prospect lists, with many excited about his debut.

Then, there was his MLB debut in 2020. In 95 plate appearances, he posted a .306 isolated power (ISO) and 195 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+). This led to him being ranked as the #7 overall prospect by Fangraphs and made many bullish about his power potential.

That being said, there were some clear red flags that appeared to go under the radar. Hayes' 9.2% barrel was encouraging, but it came with a 30.8% line-drive rate, which was almost certainly always going to come down. Furthermore, he also did not have a history of hitting for power in the minors. In the upper levels in the minors between 2018 and 2019, he had just a .150 ISO, while he had just a 92 wRC+ in Triple-A, a time when the offensive environment was higher than ever.

Unfortunately, those concerns reared their ugly head in 2021. Hayes was limited to a .116 ISO and an 88 wRC+. Let's put it this way: he hit only six home runs in 396 plate appearances! Simply put, this was not the season we were hoping for from him.

One factor of Hayes' power struggles was a wrist injury that persisted throughout the season. This certainly cannot be overlooked and is one reason he struggled. However, it isn't the only reason. See, Hayes has long had a ground ball problem, but it reached its worst levels in 2021. The 25-year-old posted a 57.4% ground ball rate, which ranked third among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances, as well as the third-lowest average launch angle (2.6 degrees) among hitters with at least 200 batted ball events.

With batted-ball numbers like that, it's no surprise Hayes only mustered a 5.1% barrel rate. However, that doesn't mean he doesn't have the raw power to work with. He ranked above the 70th percentile in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, which doesn't correlate with such a low barrel rate.

Something interesting about Hayes is how pitchers attacked him. He clearly has some weak points, and, as the season went on, pitchers adapted. Take a look at the average pitch height of fastballs thrown by opposing pitchers last year:

Meanwhile, let's take a look where Hayes is most vulnerable to hitting ground balls:

See the correlation here? With Hayes' flat bat path, he's naturally going to be more adept when it comes to hitting pitches at the top of the zone. There's a reason pitchers started throwing him pitches more down in the zone, and now he's going to have to adapt.

With a swing more geared to lift, Hayes can make the adjustment need to thrive at the MLB level. Based on his track record, I'm skeptical about having it this year, especially as he's being drafted close to a top-10 third baseman; the price is quite high to take a chance on the untapped potential. That being said, he's a nice buy-low target in dynasty leagues and could emerge as a top fantasy third baseman if he makes this change. Again, that's a major "if."

1B Josh Bell, Washington Nationals

From a current Pirate to a former Pirate, Josh Bell was once the top prospect that Pirates fans dreamed of as a future impact slugger. To this point, we're still waiting for that to fully come to fruition.

During Bell's first two and a half years in the league, Bell posted a 110 wRC+, but it came with a .177 ISO. While those numbers are fine, it's not what you want for an offensive-minded first baseman. Finally, though, the breakout came in 2019. Bell slugged 37 home runs in 613 plate appearances, posting an extremely strong .292 ISO and 135 wRC+ in the process. Finally, he had emerged as the player he was expected to be.

Or did he? Since then, Bell's ISO has come down to .193, while his wRC+ is down to 107. He's still a more powerful hitter than he was prior to 2019, but it is certainly a disappointing outcome after such a strong season in 2019. On the bright side, these numbers are skewed slightly by 2020 - he posted a .215 ISO - but there is still more on the table.

Early in his career, Bell's ground-ball rate was a clear problem for him. That appeared to be fixed, but now, it remains an issue again:

Gee, I wonder which season Bell posted his best season offensively? It's almost as if hitting fewer ground balls is beneficial for power! Bell has made up for this slightly by hitting the ball harder than ever, but an 8.8% barrel rate is not okay for someone who ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.

Bell's ground-ball issues are much more consistent across all locations than Hayes. Thus, regardless of how pitchers attack him, a ground ball is the likely outcome. For someone with as much raw power as him, he should be eclipsing 30 home runs with ease, as well as a barrel rate well in the double digits.

This is the type of player who can be a top-five first baseman easily based on the upside if he makes a swing change. You don't want to bank on it, but it is encouraging that he has done it before. So, let's ring the Bell, and hope that gets the swing change we want from the Nationals' first baseman this season!

OF Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers

It's crazy to believe that Christian Yelich was an MVP just in 2018, and was the front-runner to do so in 2019 before fracturing his knee. A lot has certainly changed since then.

Between 2018 and 2019, his first two years in Milwaukee, Yelich's numbers were absolutely absurd. He posted a 170 wRC+, a .304 ISO, and a .327/.415/.631 slash line, establishing himself as one of the top hitters in baseball. Remember, this is a player that, when he was traded to Milwaukee from Miami, many saw as a solid player but someone the Brewers gave up too much for.

Truly, it's astonishing to look at why much of a spike those two seasons were compared to his career average stats:

Prior to 2018, Yelich's career-high ISO was .185 in 2016, and he had just a .158 ISO in 2017. However, immediately upon being traded to the Brewers, he became a true power hitter. What changed. Well, one area is obvious:

Yelich's peak season in barrel rate (15.8%) came in 2019, where he was ground-ball rate finally dipped to a level where his power can be on full display. This is a player who has consistently hit the ball hard, but the barrels haven't been there due to the ground balls:

These are Yelich's percentile ranks in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. As you can see, he has constantly hit the ball hard, but it wasn't until 2018 where that translated into barrels.

So, all solved, right? Not exactly. As you can tell by Yelich's ground-ball and wRC+ charts, 2019 appears to be a clear outlier, while his production has gone down. Last season, Yelich was roughly a league-average hitter (101 wRC+) and posted a .125 ISO. Those aren't the numbers you're hoping for from someone who was generally seen as a first-round pick.

Part of Yelich's issues has simply come from not hitting the ball as hard, which could be tied to the numerous amount of injuries he has dealt with, especially a back injury last season. Assuming he's fully healthy, there's hope that gets back on track, but will he get back to not hitting ground balls? That remains to be seen.

The ceiling that Yelich possesses has been displayed before. He's also now 30-years-old and could be heading into a decline phase. At the same time, he's also young enough to get back on track, especially since a lot of issues tie back to him needing to make an approach change. Like with Bell, we've seen him do this before, which increases the optimism he can do it again. Will it happen, though? I'm sure Brewers fans would love to have their MVP back in peak form!

OF Harold Ramirez, Chicago Cubs

We've focused on "bigger names" up to this point, so I figure I'd throw in more of an under-the-radar hitter to close things out. When the Cubs picked up Harold Ramirez this offseason, it would have been common for it to go unnoticed. However, there is some intrigue with Ramirez that Chicago may also share.

Ramirez may only be 27-years-old, but this will mark the fifth team he's been on. There are some clear flaws that may explain this. For starters, he has just a career 4% walk rate, is a poor defensive outfielder, and hasn't hit for a lot of power. That's not the makings of a very valuable player.

Yet, teams keep picking him. If I had to guess, it all comes down to the potential they see with his underlying batted-ball data. Last season, for instance, he ranked in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity, the 94th percentile in max exit velocity, and the 81st percentile in hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, if you convert his average exit velocity on fly balls and line-drives to an "expected barrel rate," it would be over 11%.

Yet, Ramirez mustered just a 6.3% barrel rate and a .130 ISO last season. Why the disconnect? It all comes down to the trajectory of his contact. Last season, he had a 53.1% ground-ball rate, in addition to just an 18.5% fly-ball rate. By the eye test, he has more of a "tomahawk" style of swing, which explains the ground-ball rate. If he can go from chopping the ball to lifting the ball, he could see much more power from him.

For what it's worth, the Cubs have had success with increased launch angles in the past. That's been mainly in the minor leagues, but a change of scenery (albeit his fifth) is always a good thing for Ramirez. During one of his stops, he could unlock the potential that he has had. A lot of it is dependent on playing time, but with his plate skills and hard contact, there's a lot of average/power potential if it all comes together. It's hard to see it happening, but hey, crazier things have happened, right?

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