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Kevin's six fantasy baseball sleeper pitchers - top pitching prospects for 2025 to add and stash: Jack Leiter, Will Warren, AJ Smith-Shawyer, Richard Fitts, Shane Smith, Sean Burke.
One of the most exciting things about the lead-up to Opening Day is seeing prospects break camp with their major league teams. Top prospects like Roki Sasaki, Jackson Jobe, and Kumar Rocker stole most of the call-up headlines.
However, it's easy to forget sometimes that there are a lot of good prospects not on MLB Pipeline's Top 100. Upon scouring Roster Resource, I saw that there were quite a few pitching prospects outside the Top 100 on Opening Day rosters that offer plenty of fantasy upside.
Let's take a look at a few that should be on your radar.
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AJ Smith-Shawver, SP, Atlanta Braves
After Spencer Strider rose like a phoenix from relative unknown to fantasy superstardom in 2022, many fantasy managers thought the Atlanta pitching factory cooked up another ace in 2023 with AJ Smith-Shawver, who started the season in High-A and quickly stopped in Double-A and Triple-A on his way to the majors.
In 2023, he had a 2.76 ERA and an 18.3 percent K-BB rate in 62 innings across the minors.
His first season in Atlanta was unspectacular as he had a 4.26 ERA and an 8.6 percent K-BB rate. However, the fact that he held his own in the majors at only 20 years old made him a popular breakout pick going into 2024.
The breakout never happened for Smith-Shawver as the acquisitions of Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez, along with the emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach, made the Atlanta rotation very crowded, leaving him in the minors for most of the season.
With Max Fried going to New York and Strider recovering from an internal brace procedure this spring, there was another opportunity for Smith-Shawver to get into the Braves rotation.
He made the most of his opportunity and earned the fifth starter job in the Braves' rotation out of spring training. His 3.97 ERA (2.17 xERA) was nice, but his improved command really stood out. Like many young pitchers, walks have been an issue for him in the past. However, he only walked 7.0 percent of the hitters he faced this spring while striking out 28.2 percent.
AJ Smith-Shawver reaches back for 99 to pick up his fourth strikeout pic.twitter.com/fBBd2b0L8Z
— Gaurav (@gvedak) March 15, 2025
It's crazy to think that prospect fatigue has kicked in for a 22-year-old pitcher who once had so much hype, but that has happened a bit with Smith-Shawver.
Smith-Shawver will need to beat out Grant Holmes to keep his job when Strider returns to the rotation. However, he's worth a speculative add now as his upside is immense if he's able to maintain his spot.
Jack Leiter, SP, Texas Rangers
Remember this guy? The number two overall pick and son of former big leaguer Al Leiter has had a relatively tumultuous career thus far after his illustrious college career at Vanderbilt.
The major problem for Leiter early in his pro career was that he walked way too many batters. He walked over 13 percent of the batters he faced in each of his first two seasons in the minors.
His command improved quite a bit in 2024, which seemed to go a bit under the radar. He reduced his walk rate in Triple-A down to 10.6 percent while still striking out 33.3 percent of batters. The one ray of sunshine in his otherwise horrible stint in the majors in 2024 was that he got his walk rate under 10.0 percent in this small sample.
Going into this spring, it looked like Leiter would probably be starting the season back in the minors. However, an opportunity suddenly arose for him as Jon Gray (wrist) and Cody Bradford (elbow) went down with injuries. Leiter had a solid enough spring to win a rotation spot despite still struggling with walks.
Many eyes were on Leiter on Friday as he was starting the second game of the regular season against the tough Red Sox lineup. He probably had the best performance of his pro career thus far. His stuff was impressive, generating 12 whiffs, and more importantly, he only had two walks while allowing one earned run.
Jack Leiter made his 2025 debut as he struck out 4 across 5.0 IP with 1ER
The Rangers rookie leaned on his new sinker and kick changeup to stifle Red Sox batters. He couldn’t generate many chases, but he made it up with a bunch of whiffs and soft contact
The stuff is elite! pic.twitter.com/No8YbnIMj4
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 29, 2025
I'm somewhat weary of picking up Leiter, but due to his name value and prospect pedigree, you may not be able to wait to pick him up. If he can keep the walks in check, he has upside, especially as the Rangers are counting on him and his former college teammate, Kumar Rocker, for innings with all of the injuries in their rotation.
A clear signal of the Rangers' desperation in their rotation is that they signed Patrick Corbin and his four straight seasons of over 5.00 ERA. I'm thinking about that viral tweet that talks about suddenly becoming super important at your job. That's the case for Leiter and this next pitcher...
Will Warren, SP, New York Yankees
Speaking of suddenly becoming super important at your job. The Yankees' rotation looked pretty stacked going into spring training following the signing of Max Fried. This even led to Marcus Stroman famously proclaiming he was only a starter and not a reliever.
Then, the avalanche of pitching injuries hit with Gerrit Cole needing Tommy John surgery and Luis Gil (lat) and Clarke Schmidt (shoulder) starting the season on the IL. Enter Will Warren, who was, to put it politely, awful in his first stint in the big leagues.
Warren had a 10.32 ERA and 1.90 WHIP across 22 2/3 innings in the majors in 2024.
During his first few starts of spring training, Warren looked like a man ready to rebound and take that fifth starter job in the Yankees rotation as he had a 1.54 ERA and 0.60 WHIP over his first 11 2/3 innings. However, he gave up 11 earned runs over his last three starts to balloon his spring ERA over 5.00.
At this moment, it's hard to roster Warren since he might kill your ratios. However, he's someone who should go on your watchlist. If he starts out well, he has upside for strikeouts and wins along with some runway in the Yankee rotation.
Richard Fitts, SP, Boston Red Sox
Before the 2024 season, the Yankees and Red Sox made a rare trade that sent Alex Verdugo to the Yankees for three pitchers, including Richard Fitts. Verdugo stinking it up last season to the tune of 0.6 fWAR in 149 games already made the trade pretty bad for the Yankees, but Fitts' emergence this season could make it look much worse.
Unlike most of the above prospects, Fitts has always had pretty good command. He never had a walk rate above 8.0 percent in the minors and walked only 8.2 percent of batters in his 20 2/3 innings in the majors.
The walk rate and his 1.74 ERA in the majors last season were pretty exciting. However, his strikeout rate has left a lot to be desired. His strikeout rate in 2024 was 22.6 percent in Triple-A and only 10.6 percent in his short stint in the majors.
This spring, he has seen an uptick in velocity, which will hopefully translate to more strikeouts in 2025.
Richard Fitts was a bit erratic in his first spring start, but the stuff looked great.
He’s posted 9 K’s through 6.1 total innings, FF T99 mph, added 3+ new weapons to his arsenal, and has showcased legit whiff-ability.
Breakout szn 🔜pic.twitter.com/OtWDaFM7yF
— G.G. (@ggeiss_mlb) March 9, 2025
Fitts is currently slotted into the Red Sox rotation as their fourth starter. He had a decent first start of the season, striking out four over six innings and allowing three earned runs against the Rangers. He'll provide solid ratios, but his upside will be tied to how much he bumps up the punchouts.
Scoop him up if you're looking for a back-of-the-rotation arm to provide volume.
Sean Burke/Shane Smith, SP, Chicago White Sox
I'm combining Sean Burke and Shane Smith as both guys are pretty intriguing, but the elephant in the room of rostering a White Sox starter in fantasy is that you likely can't expect them to get you many wins.
Garrett Crochet showed us last year, though, that White Sox pitchers can have value in fantasy despite the lack of win potential. Neither Burke nor Smith is likely to become Garrett Crochet, but no one knew Crochet would emerge into an ace at this time last year either.
At this moment, Burke is probably the best White Sox starter at the major league level (Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith are on the way). He struggled throughout the minor leagues with a career ERA over 5.00. However, he has been excellent so far in his time in the majors.
He had a 1.42 ERA and a 19.7 K-BB rate last year in 19 MLB innings and threw six shutout innings on Opening Day this season against the Angels.
The key factor for Burke is whether he can keep the walks in check. His walk rates have been over 13.0 percent in each of his last two seasons in the minors. The lower walk rates so far in the majors have been very encouraging.
Despite being relatively unknown going into this offseason, Smith has become one of the more intriguing young pitchers in the league. He was the first pick in the latest Rule Five draft after he wasn't protected by the Brewers.
He's had very impressive K-BB ratios over the last two seasons in the minors. His K-BB rate in 2023 was 28.0 percent across Low-A, High-A, and Double-A. His K-BB rate in 2024 was 22.0 percent across Double-A and Triple-A.
Going into the spring, it seemed the White Sox were hoping Smith could be a good reliever for them, but he really impressed, most notably against the Dodgers, and earned a spot in the rotation.
Shane Smith's 5Ks thru 3. pic.twitter.com/7iBPAp81au
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 8, 2025
Both White Sox young starters are ones to monitor in all leagues. Both can be scooped up in leagues right now without wins as a category. Burke has the more stable spot in the rotation while Smith seems to have more upside.
Another unfortunate reality for both pitchers is that the White Sox will likely finagle with their innings in the second half of the season, like they did last year with Crochet. Smith has never thrown over 100 innings in a season in his professional career, while Burke hasn't thrown over 100 since 2022.
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