Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates - American League (2026)

January 16, 2026

Corbin's starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts and sleepers from the AL, most of which have an ADP beyond pick 250. His favorite 2026 SP draft values.

Last season, I was pounding the table for Kris Bubic. He logged 116 innings, with a 2.55 ERA (3.65 xERA), 1.18 WHIP, while maintaining some of his skills via his swinging-strike rate (13.5 percent) and ball rate (33 percent) in 2025. Unfortunately, Bubic missed most of the second half of the season, with a left rotator cuff strain, shortening the breakout campaign.

When looking at breakout starting pitchers, we want players who haven't been pushed up the draft boards based on past success. That typically means these players are being drafted in the middle to late rounds past pick 200 or so, as an arbitrary cutoff. Bias aside, these starting pitchers have some intriguing metrics, team contexts, or potential opportunities to suggest a breakout season in 2026. In fantasy sports, breakouts occur with a mixture of luck and skills, though we could argue the latter matters more. We have three starting pitchers to target as breakout starting pitcher candidates in the American League, plus two more honorable mentions that nearly made the priority list.

Like my typical columns, we'll scour the ADP, examine the skills, and provide actionable data for why these starting pitchers could break out in 2026. These starting pitchers stood out when running different filters based on release points, induced vertical break, and other notable pitch-level metrics to identify early breakout candidates for the 2026 season.

Reid Detmers, SP, Los Angeles Angels

NFBC ADP: 350 (Since December 1)

The narrative surrounding Bubic entering last season was that he couldn't maintain the skill gains he made as a reliever in 2024, after transitioning to a starting pitcher role in 2025. Detmers started in 70 games from 2022 to 2024, then switched to a reliever with 61 appearances in 2025. There was a report in October that Detmers earned a chance to rejoin the starting rotation in 2026.

We'll preface these underlying metrics with the injury concern. However, Detmers's draft cost makes it worth the risk. In mid-September, Detmers missed the rest of the season with an elbow injury that reportedly should heal with rest. That said, Detmers was one of the pitchers who posted an above-average ball rate and a 14 percent swinging-strike rate in 2025, as seen in the visual below.

That suggests these players possess above-average skills that we should target for pitchers, especially starting pitchers. When we filter by pitchers with a swinging-strike rate north of 15 percent, the notable players include Garrett Crochet, Detmers, Hunter Greene, Griffin Jax, Dylan Lee, Cristopher Sánchez, Tarik Skubal, Cade Smith, and Garrett Whitlock.

Detmers's four-seam induced vertical break (IVB) increased from 17.9 inches (2024) to 18.2 (2025). That coincides with more than two inches of extension and a four-seam velocity increase of two mph in 2025. When pitchers shift to a reliever, that's typically what occurs regarding fastball velocity, but the already near-elite IVB might be the most notable aspect.

As a reliever, Detmers saw his slider go from an above-average swinging-strike rate (18.9 percent) in 2024 to near-elite (20.5 percent) in 2025. Furthermore, Detmers's four-seam gained whiffs in 2025, evidenced by his 14.7 percent swinging-strike rate compared to a career average of 10.1 percent. That aligns with the improved four-seamer's IVB and velocity.

Additionally, Detmers's slider dropped 1.5 inches more in 2025 while increasing in velocity by two mph. It's rare to see a slider drop more and be thrown harder, which makes it an intriguing gyro-like slider that can be nasty to either side of the plate.

Detmers fits the Bubic mold of being a failed starter, then shifting to reliever, and showing skills that warrant another shot as a starting pitcher. The difference might be the team context and how the Royals have become a more intriguing team for player development than the Angels. Take a risk at the price regardless of health.

Jack Leiter, SP, Texas Rangers

NFBC ADP: 246 (Since December 1)

Leiter has the type of four-seam that intrigues us. His four-seam nearly gained one mph in 2025, yet lost about a half inch in induced vertical break. Leiter's arm angle fell from 48.8 degrees (2024) to 43.8 degrees (2025). His vertical release point and extension hardly fluctuated, but his horizontal release point moved nearly five inches closer (4.8) to his midline, as seen below.

We saw Leiter's four-seam swinging-strike rate fall from 13.8 percent (2024) to 9.1 percent (2025), though we're dealing with a relatively small sample of 1,347 four-seamers thrown. Theoretically, the horizontal release point change could've helped Leiter command the four-seamer better with improved outcomes against left-handed hitters (.265 wOBA, .300 xwOBA) and righties (.299 wOBA, .357 xwOBA) in 2025.

As seen in the visual below, the most significant outcome changes came via the four-seam against right-handed hitters.

Besides Leiter's four-seamer, the strikeout skills could be limited since his slider (12.9 percent), changeup (13 percent), and curveball (11.9 percent) hovered around 11-14 percent in swinging-strike rate over the past two seasons. Leiter's slider profiles as a gyro-like one that performs better against left-handed hitters (.291 wOBA, .275 xwOBA) than righties (.312 wOBA, .307 xwOBA).

The wild card might be the changeup, which added nearly four inches of downward movement, losing just under one inch of arm-side movement. If he can consistently command the changeup against left-handed hitters, it will give him 2-3 reliable pitches to attack lefties with the four-seam improvements.

When we take a step back, Leiter's profile from a ball percentage (37 percent) and swinging-strike rate (11 percent) can lead to a volatile profile. For context, the league average for ball rate hovers between 34 and 35 percent, with 12 percent being the mediocre swinging-strike rates.

We're buying in the horizontal release point and arm angle changes, which coincide with positive impacts for the four-seam locations and results.

Casey Mize, SP, Detroit Tigers

NFBC ADP: 261 (Since December 1)

Mize had his best season since 2021 from a results standpoint, yet some career-bests in skills, with his 134 BPX, 11.2 percent swinging-strike rate, and 34 percent ball rate. However, Mize's ADP hasn't shifted too much. In 2024, Mize's four-seam showed better induced vertical break while adjusting his arm angle. Both of which we admired.

Those changes for Mize sustained throughout 2025, giving us optimism for him in 2026. Interestingly, Mize raised his vertical release point by over 1.5 inches, with his horizontal release shifting by over four inches away from his midline. The four-seam results have significantly improved against left-handed hitters, allowing a .292 wOBA (.278 xwOBA) in 2025 compared to a .405 wOBA (.376 xwOBA) in 2024.

Mize seemingly has been locating the four-seamer better against left-handed hitters in 2025. That's evident in the visual below, where Mize was deploying his four-seam up in the zone in his favor with the above-average induced vertical break.

Besides a better four-seamer, Mize's splitter was thrown over two mph harder while losing 2.5 inches of downward movement and adding an inch of arm-side fade. Mize's splitter elicited a career-best swinging-strike rate at 18.8 percent in 2025, up from 17.3 percent in 2024 and 15.9 percent throughout his career.

It's worth noting that we would like Mize's splitter to drop more often, though increased velocity can be beneficial. Mize's skills and results have improved, with several inputs supporting the skill changes in 2025, which he can carry into 2026.

Zebby Matthews, SP, Minnesota Twins

NFBC ADP: 292 (Since December 1)

Look past the surface stats in 2025. Matthews has better skills to support potential improved outcomes in 2026. He boasted a 4.22 xERA (5.56 ERA), with a slightly above-average ball rate (33 percent) and swinging-strike rate (13.3 percent). Matthews increased his four-seam velocity by over one mph (1.3) in 2025 across a larger sample.

He maintained his four-seam induced vertical break at 16.5 to 17 inches, translating into an above-average number when paired with good extension. That's mainly helpful because Matthews throws from a lower vertical release point, under six feet.

When Matthews locates the four-seamer in the upper third of the zone, the expected results suggest favorable outcomes. However, we can see that hitters will destroy Matthews's four-seam when he makes mistakes in the heart of the zone, as seen below.

Among pitchers with 250 sliders thrown, Matthews ranks 24th in swinging-strike rate (22.1 percent). That's similar to the sliders for Reese Olson (22.4 percent), Kyle Bradish (22.9 percent), Dylan Cease (22.5 percent), Max Meyer (22.2 percent), Detmers (22.2 percent), and Cole Ragans (22.1 percent). Matthews's gyro-like slider has been deadly against right-handed hitters, evidenced by a .147 wOBA (.168 xwOBA) in 2025.

The main hurdle is whether Matthews can find enough effectiveness with the changeup and slider against left-handed hitters. Matthews's changeup doesn't stand out from a movement profile, yet allows a .235 wOBA (.304 xwOBA) and elicits a lowly 10.6 percent swinging-strike rate. That could lead to hitters attacking the heater (.471 wOBA, .386 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters.

Besides the pitch-level data, the Twins tend to limit their starting pitchers to five innings per start (No. 22), with the 26th-highest percentage of quality starts. All the Twins' starting pitchers face 22 to 23 batters per game, with Matthews at fifth among starters with 75 innings in 2025. Simeon Woods Richardson was last (No. 6) with 20.5 batters faced per game. Regardless of the concerns, take a gamble on a skilled pitcher and a former top prospect at the price.

Joey Cantillo, SP, Cleveland Guardians

NFBC ADP: 279 (Since December 1)

There are no sleepers these days, with many researching deeply into analytics. Jokes aside, Cantillo performed well for the Guardians, with a 3.21 ERA (3.83 xERA), yet some concerns via the ball rate (37 percent) and a decent swinging-strike rate (12.3 percent). If pitchers struggle with control, we want them to have higher swinging-strike rates, though Cantillo's data doesn't fit that mold.

Cantillo boasts an above-average 16.9 induced vertical break on his four-seamer while having near-elite extension (7.3 feet). Theoretically, that should help Cantillo's four-seam perform better than expected when he locates it well. That's especially true when he throws from this high arm angle that stays extremely tight toward the midline of his body.

There were 23 pitchers with a four-seamer IVB at 16.5 inches or better with seven or more feet of extension. Besides Cantillo, Logan Gilbert, Bailey Ober, Bailey Falter, Sean Burke, Tylor Megill, and Chris Paddack were notable starting pitchers that met those thresholds.

Interestingly, it looks like Cantillo fits more into the Ober and Falter mold. However, Cantillo's four-seam has a wildly low 1,842 revolutions per minute (RPM). For context, the league-average four-seam RPM has been around 2,300 over the past three seasons. While that's interesting, that can cause Cantillo's four-seam to drop more than "rise" with the lower spin rates.

Typically, four-seamers with more spin and rise, meaning better induced vertical break, paired with whiffs, lead to more swings and misses. On the flip side, low-spin four-seamers can be an attempt to limit hard contact. That hasn't been the case against right-handed hitters (.334 wOBA, .376 xwOBA) and lefties (.405 wOBA, .412 xwOBA) via the four-seamer.

When Cantillo locates the four-seam in the upper third, it can limit hard contact. Let's see if Cantillo can locate the four-seam better in the upper third with the success in 2025. Cantillo possesses a changeup that elicits a 23.8 percent swinging-strike rate, leading his arsenal.

Unfortunately, Cantillo's changeup doesn't pop from a movement profile. However, Cantillo's changeup has been filthy against right-handed hitters. That's evident in Cantillo's changeup, allowing a .216 wOBA (.216 xwOBA) and eliciting a 26.5 percent swinging-strike rate against right-handers.

Furthermore, Cantillo's curveball generates weak contact against right-handed hitters, resulting in a .215 wOBA (.206 xwOBA), yet barely any whiffs, with a 6.8 percent swinging-strike rate. Cantillo's curveball tends to be this breaking pitch with tons of downward movement, making it a big looping pitch that's hard to square up.

The Guardians tend to allow their starters to pitch deep into games, ranking second in innings per start (5.5), tied with the Diamondbacks and behind the Phillies (5.7). Cantillo might not have the strikeout upside to post a massive breakout, but he could be a stabilizer that eats quality innings.

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