5 Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers: NL East Edition - Scott Engel's Value Picks

March 1, 2025

Scott Engel spotlights five fantasy baseball sleepers in the NL East who are currently undervalued, and going in the middle-to-late rounds of 2025 drafts.

The National League East might be the best division in baseball for the 2025 season. The top three teams in the division are among the favorites to win the NL pennant. If any team in the NL can overcome the Dodgers, it may come from this division.

The Braves have made the playoffs in each of the last seven years. Philadelphia has appeared in a World Series and two National League Championship Series in the last three seasons. The Mets went on a surprising run to the NLCS in 2024 and made the premier statement of the offseason by signing Juan Soto.

The stars and standouts are all firmly established on those teams, yet complementary and less-heralded players could make important contributions during the regular season for the NL East contenders. The Nationals and Marlins will be highly contrasting also-rans who may provide opportunities for more overlooked players to shine. All five teams in the NL East will feature notable fantasy baseball sleepers and value plays to consider during fantasy baseball draft season, and we highlight our top picks from every team here.

Francisco Alvarez, C, New York Mets

NFBC ADP: 147.02

There are a few value types from the Mets to consider, as Mark Vientos, Brandon Nimmo, Kodai Senga, and Sean Manaea could certainly outperform their ADPs. Alvarez, however, is lesser-regarded than those teammates fantasy-wise. He is the 12^th catcher off the board in NFBC leagues. That barely puts him at the back of the No. 1 catcher range in leagues where you must start one player at the position.

Francisco Alvarez spent the offseason changing the load in his swing and Carlos Mendoza is liking the looks of it so far pic.twitter.com/fmok4Crz3j

— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) February 13, 2025

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There is so much attention focused elsewhere in the lineup that Alvarez won’t be under heavier scrutiny to be a top hitter for the team, although playing in New York always does carry some natural pressure. In his first extensive action at the MLB level in 2023, Alvarez hit 25 home runs with an ISO of .228. The .209 batting average was an apparent cause for concern, but the hope was that he could fashion a more respectable BA in 2024.

Unfortunately, the 23-year-old dealt with an early season thumb injury and then logged a very disappointing campaign. The ISO tumbled to .166 and he hit only 11 homers in 100 games with a .237 BA. His HR/FB rate dipped from 21.4 percent to 15.5. The ground-ball rate elevated from 44.0 percent to 52.2 and his hard-hit rate slipped from 35.5 percent to 30.8.

Most notably, the launch angle was at 12.5 degrees in 2023 and 6.9 in 2024, which led to weaker contact and less power, as pointed out by Empire Sports Media. This offseason, through a recommendation from former teammate J.D. Martinez, Alvarez worked very hard at a training facility on refining his swing to improve his approach and generate more consistent power.

There has never been any doubt about Alvarez’s pure power, but his plate discipline and overall offensive game must be better this year to build on what we saw two seasons ago. Playing behind the thick crux of a loaded Mets lineup while working diligently to get more out of his HR potential could lead to more than 25 homers from the Mets catcher in 2025, while the swing changes might also mean a better BA than last year’s.

A youthful power source in a good hitting environment in terms of the lineup and teammates is well worth taking the chance on for homer upside.

Spencer Schwellenbach, SP, Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP: 97.36

It isn’t easy to find a sleeper type on the Atlanta roster, yet Schwellenbach is certainly capable of outperforming his ADP this season. As a seventh-round pick, he might function as a second starting pitcher for a fantasy drafter who waits a bit longer to attack the position.

The 24-year-old right-hander is not an unknown player to the point where he is a pure sleeper, but he is certainly a value target when we extend the definition/parameters of the term.

Last season, Schwellenbach broke onto the scene with a 3.35 ERA that was backed by a 3.34 xFIP. The 25.4 strikeout percentage was good enough, and those who rostered him in fantasy baseball certainly liked the 1.04 WHIP. He only worked 123.2 innings and should now elevate to the 165 to 170 range as the projected third starter for the Braves.

After the loss of Max Fried in the offseason, Atlanta is significantly counting on Schwellenbach to be one of its top starters. Charlie Morton is also gone and there is not a firm return date for the return of Spencer Strider. The team’s willingness to trust him as a prominent member of the rotation should serve as a signal of confidence to fantasy players.

Last season’s rise was not a big surprise to close Braves followers, as Schwellenbach was the No. 3 prospect in the Braves organization. He featured a six-pitch arsenal and displayed impressive control, with a 4.6 percent walk rate last year. Everything in his profile and the role on the Atlanta pitching staff suggests more of a similar outlook this season, as an expanded workload might only lead to a minor dip in efficiency.

There are no obvious markers to suggest a notable drop-off from what we saw in 2024, especially with the team’s decision-makers being willing to keep him in a key spot in the rotation.

Six starting pitchers had 2+ offerings with a 40+% whiff rate in 2024, min 200 pitches for each offering.

Blake Snell (3)
Tyler Glasnow
Jesús Luzardo
Reese Olson
Spencer Schwellenbach
Kyle Gibson pic.twitter.com/aeMZ9MAB0Y

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 8, 2025

Jesus Luzardo, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

NFBC ADP: 316.84

For the price/value draft range, Luzardo is a very appealing flier. Sure, seasoned fantasy players are well aware of his durability concerns. But there is still significant strikeout promise, and a move from Miami to Philadelphia increases his potential for wins, even though we cannot always accurately chase the stat. Playing in a much more competitive scenario, though, does make Luzardo a more attractive candidate as a later pitching pick.

Last season, elbow and back problems played roles in Luzardo posting a career-low 21.2 percent strikeout rate. The 5.00 ERA should certainly be lower this season, as the xFIP was 4.23. In 2023 for Miami, he finished with a 3.58 ERA and 28.1 percent K rate in 178.2 innings pitched.

Although Luzardo has logged just one season of more than 20 starts, it came just two seasons ago, and the stuff is still live. He’s a very tempting later SP pick for a bounce-back campaign.

Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP: 134.66

For where Crews is being drafted, he is a good upside value target. The rookie is reportedly slated to hit second in the Washington lineup this season, and he is in an ideal situation to maximize his speed promise. The Nationals led MLB with 223 steals last season, and with CJ Abrams and Crews at the top of the lineup, opposing catchers are going to be too busy defensively when facing them.

In 2024, the 22-year-old hit .270 in 100 minor league games with 13 home runs and 25 steals, so you can see there is some decent power to take as a bonus alongside the SBs when you draft him.

In his first full season in the majors, you might get 15 homers and 30-plus steals from Crews. He did see action in 31 games at the MLB level last season, and while the OBP was just at .288, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 draft stole 12 bases.

Savvy fantasy baseball players have likely kept close tabs on the rise of this top Washington prospect, but sleepers are not always players who just come out of nowhere to contribute. They are draft targets who can well exceed preseason expectations or ADPs.

Crews should be monitored in the spring and there can always be very tough stretches for rookies. He did log a .351 OBP with a .275 average in two minor league seasons and he will certainly contribute well enough in terms of counting stats when he gets on base for more consistent stretches.

Max Meyer, SP, Miami Marlins

NFBC ADP: 561.19

Meyer is totally off the draft radar, as indicated by the NFBC ADP. Although seemingly almost anyone who has a good year for Miami could be classified as a value play, there should certainly be interest in the third pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. He is reportedly expanding his pitching offerings this spring, attempting to add a sweeper and sinker.

Max Meyer has reached up to 98 mph with his fastball during his live BP today 👀

Slider in the 88-90 mph range. Sweeper and sinker also look good.

— Isaac Azout (@IsaacAzout) February 21, 2025

In 11 MLB starts last season, Meyer posted a 5.68 ERA with just an 18.5 percent K rate. Early in the season, though, he posted a 2.12 ERA in three April starts, allowing 11 hits and walking three with 14 strikeouts in 17 innings. He was much less effective after returning from the minors in late July. Meyer had been sent down to monitor his innings after returning from Tommy John surgery that kept him out the previous season.

The former Minnesota Golden Gophers standout is incorporating the new pitches under the watch of new Miami pitching coach Daniel Moskos, and they can be quality complements to his fastball and featured slider.

“My slider is going to be more down in depth and my sweeper's going to come across the plate,” Meyer told MLB.com. “I feel like with the movement, there's definitely a big separation between those two.”

“My change is going to be a really good pitch, too. I just have crazy confidence in {my pitches} that I haven't had a lot in the past going through the injury. I just feel strong, feel 100%, feel better than I did in college,” Meyer added.

Meyer should have every opportunity to stick in the Miami rotation this season, and he had a 10.5 K/9 rate in the minors. He should not just be rostered in NL-only leagues this season.

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