5 Potential Fantasy Baseball Busts for 2nd Half - Hitters to Avoid Down The Stretch?

Andy's second-half fantasy baseball bust candidates for hitters in 2025. Trade away or sell high on hitters like Jeremy Pena, Ceddanne Rafaela, Zach McKinstry, TJ Friedl and more

During the first half of the fantasy baseball season, we saw many hitters emerge as must-start options. Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz has become a must-start first baseman, while Pete Crow-Armstrong is an MVP favorite.

However, these hot starts often fade by the end of the season. It is crucial to know when to sell high on a player before they hit rock bottom. In this piece, I will take a look at five hitters who could be nearing the end of their hot streaks.

What players should we look to cut bait on in the coming days? Let's dive in. Note that all stats referenced are up to date as of Tuesday, July 29

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Zach McKinstry, 2B/3B/SS/OF, Detroit Tigers

2025 Fantasy Stats: .266/.348/.437, 8 HR, 50 R, 32 RBI, 16 SB

2025 Advanced Stats: .318 xwOBA, .260 xBA, .371 xSLG, 31.0% HH%

Current Standard Roto Rank (among hitters): 79

After going undrafted in almost every league, Zach McKinstry has been a valuable waiver wire target for those who scooped him up. The multi-positional infielder/outfielder currently stands as the No. 79-overall ranked hitter in standard scoring. He has posted a solid batting average while accumulating a high total of runs and stolen bases, playing a potent Detroit offense.

However, the 30-year-old's days of being a locked-in fantasy starter appear to be reaching the end.

Under the hood, he carries the 12th-worst wOBA-xwOBA and the fourth-worst SLG-xSLG among qualifying hitters. When looking at his production against specific pitches, his profile suggests regression could be coming, and may have already begun to kick in.

Through the first half, he has seen four-seamers just under 60% of the time at the plate. As shown below, McKinstry hit his peak in June, boasting a strong .323 wOBA against four-seamers that month, while carrying an impressive .438 wOBA against breaking balls and a .485 wOBA against offspeed.

However, when looking at his xwOBA during the same stretch, it paints a much worse picture. His xwOBA for nearly all three pitches was 100 points lower, suggesting he was greatly overachieving. For example, in June, he posted a poor .285 xwOBA against four-seamers.

Overall, when looking at his Baseball Savant page, you can see several batted-ball metrics sit well below the average marks, such as hard-hit rate and barrel rate. Given how little hard contact he makes, it will be very challenging for McKinstry to maintain this level of production going forward.

Fantasy managers should look to move off McKinstry in all formats. While he will continue to hold value in deeper leagues given his ability to steal bases (75th percentile sprint speed) and with an everyday role in the starting nine, he will likely only be viewed as a streaming option in favorable matchups.

Regression has already begun to decrease his value as he has held a much lower .200/.316/.385 line in July.

TJ Friedl, OF, Cincinnati Reds

2025 Fantasy Stats: .269/.371/.398, 10 HR, 63 R, 36 RBI, 10 SB,

2025 Advanced Stats: .312 xwOBA, .242 xBA, .336 xSLG, 30.5% HH%

Current Standard Roto Rank (among hitters): 70

The Cincinnati Reds outfielder has been one of the biggest overachievers in the first half. While he has been a reliable No. 4 OF in most standard leagues, under the hood, his metrics suggest he will likely be a bench bat by the end of the season.

The 29-year-old currently sits in the 20th percentile in xwOBA, 22nd percentile in xBA, and the eighth percentile in xSLG. In addition, he has generated a mere 30.5% hard-hit rate with a 3.4% barrel rate, both of which are also well below the average marks.

His current batting average and slugging percentage are nearly 30 points higher than his metrics indicate they should be.

When taking a deep dive, it appears his production against fastballs should remain relatively stable, given that his .364 xwOBA is right in line with his base .365 wOBA. However, much of his regression will be welcomed at the hands of breaking balls.

So far, pitchers have only thrown him breaking balls 25.7% of the time overall; however, when looking by month, it appears pitchers have begun to catch on to his weakness.

When facing breaking balls this season, Friedl has generated a weak .261 xwOBA, which is much lower than .327 wOBA on the surface. In addition, the .301 xSLG is more than 100 points lower than the .431 SLG on the surface level.

While his elite eye at the plate (84th percentile K% and 82nd percentile BB%) will help him hold value in deeper points leagues, fantasy managers expecting a 20/20 season from Friedl should temper their expectations severely.

Expect his batting average to drop and power production to plummet, even while playing in a hitter's paradise of Great American Ball Park.

Ceddanne Rafaela, 2B/SS/OF, Boston Red Sox

2025 Fantasy Stats: .262/.302/.451, 14 HR, 58 R, 48 RBI, 14 SB

2025 Advanced Stats: .331 xwOBA, .261 xBA, .470 xSLG, 44.4% HH%

Current Standard Roto Rank (among hitters): 52

While I initially planned on discussing Jacob Wilson, he recently hit the injured list with a fractured hand, and it would seem like a cop-out to include him here. Instead, I will pivot to the emerging star in Boston.

After a rough April where he posted a .241/.315/.367 line, Rafaela has become a top bat in the Boston lineup. Since May 1, Rafaela has posted an impressive .280/.310/.504 slash line with 19 doubles, 12 home runs, and seven stolen bases.

While the 24-year-old possesses elite speed (91st percentile sprint speed) and should continue to be a viable strong contributor for stolen bases, his bat is trending in the wrong direction.

Overall, Rafaela sits in the 51st and 53rd percentile in xwOBA and xBA, suggesting he will likely be a middle-of-the-road batting average asset down the stretch, and will not carry a .280+ AVG much longer.

In addition, the 24-year-old has significantly outperformed his metrics over the past few months, which is not a surprise. In June, Rafaela posted a .482 wOBA and a .378 wOBA facing breaking balls and offspeed pitches, respectively. However, under the hood, he carried a much lower .384 and .334 xwOBA against these two pitch types.

In July, this trend continued, with his .444 wOBA (against fastballs) and .303 wOBA (against offspeed), but his lower .336 xwOBA and .245 xwOBA against these two pitch types.

With his batting skills declining and his lack of ability to get on base via a walk (four percent walk rate), there is an outcome where his stolen base productivity takes a significant drop as well. While he is a solid middle infielder and No. 4/5 outfielder in deeper leagues, fantasy managers should look to sell-high on Rafaela before his value drops to outside the top-100.

Jeremy Pena, SS, Houston Astros

2025 Fantasy Stats: .322/.378/.489, 11 HR, 48 R, 40 RBI, 15 SB

2025 Advanced Stats: .350 xwOBA, .290 xBA, .453 xSLG, 41.5% HH%

Current Standard Roto Rank (among hitters): 38

Unlike the names above, I would not be rushing to sell Jeremy Pena, as he is not expected to see a significant drop in production like the names above. However, if a manager in your league still views him as a top-30 claiber hitter, I would look to sell immediately.

Before hitting the IL with a rib injury, Pena was performing at a near-MVP level, holding a stellar .322/.378/.489 lines while contributing to all standard categories. However, with Pena already back with the team following his rib injury, there will be a brief period to sell high on him before his expected regression kicks in.

Currently, Pena holds the 10th-worst wOBA-xwOBA among qualified hitters and the second-worst BA-xBA, which is a telling sign that regression could be coming. While it does not mean Pena will be "bust" the rest of the way, as his .350 xwOBA is still in the 72nd percentile, he likely will not be performing this well.

While the 27-year-old has hit fastballs well (and should continue to do so, evident in his .399 xwOBA), his inability to hit breaking balls could hurt him during the stretch run. Through the entire first half, Pena has posted a modest .287 xwOBA against this pitch type, which is relatively lower than the .355 wOBA on the surface.

In addition, his xwOBA against breaking balls took a stark drop in June, which could lead to a disappointing second half.

If you have been able to make do without Pena on your team, I highly suggest you find a trade partner as soon as he is activated off the injured list. He still holds the value of at least a top-50 player right at the start of the season, which can be the difference between winning and losing your league.

With him nearing a return to action, his sell window could close quite fast.

Sal Frelick, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

2025 Fantasy Stats: .295/.356/.412, 8 HR, 48 R, 40 RBI, 17 SB

2025 Advanced Stats: .308 xwOBA, .270 xBA, .353 xSLG, 28.4% HH%

Current Standard Roto Rank (among hitters): 53

Rounding out this list will be another "contact" approach hitter in Sal Frelick. Frelick is on pace to smash his previous career-high marks as he sits with an elite .295 AVG, eight home runs, and 17 stolen bases. However, there is a brief sell-high window open, and I would look to act fast on it.

Frelick currently holds the sixth-worst wOBA-xwOBA among qualified hitters, which is a significant indicator that he will take a step back down the stretch. In addition, his .353 xSLG is nearly 80 points lower than his .412 SLG.

While he has overachieved on all three types of pitches, much of his regression will come against off-speed pitches. The 25-year-old has gotten quite lucky against this type of pitch, evident in the .418 wOBA compared to the .314 xwOBA under the hood.

Given how soft he hits the ball (3.3% barrel rate, 28.7% hard-hit rate), Frelick has a minimal margin for error. His below-average .308 xwOBA suggests he could be in store for a massive step back in the second half. I would look to find a league mate who could use batting average and speed, and make a trade for a proven hitter with a much higher floor.

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