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Andy's 5 fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers - hitters and pitchers from the AL to prioritize in 2026 drafts. These upside players are strong value picks.
Everyone is looking for the next breakout. Last season, several budding stars took the American League by storm as Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz and Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero both were league-winning assets.
In this piece, we will look to spotlight the next American League breakouts. However, we will look to avoid the "obvious" breakout candidates like Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen, Kevin McGonigle, and Ben Rice, and instead look a bit deeper to find our next league-winners. All ADP referenced is taken from the NFBC drafts as of February 15.
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Shane Baz, SP, Baltimore Orioles
ADP: 201
Let's kick this list off with a player who was involved in one of the major trades this offseason. The Tampa Bay Rays shipped right-hander Shane Baz to their division rival, the Baltimore Orioles, in exchange for a handful of prospects. Baz is a former top prospect but has yet to showcase his true potential over the course of a full season.
Additionally, Baz missed the entirety of the 2023 season and most of the 2024 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery. In 2024, Baz flashed solid upside, logging 79 1/3 innings to the tune of a 3.06 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He struck out hitters at a 21.6% rate while posting a solid 8.5% BB% and appeared to be a prime breakout candidate heading into the 2025 campaign.
Unfortunately, the move to George M. Steinbrenner Field stalled any breakout season, as Baz was one of the most inconsistent pitchers during the 2025 campaign. Across a career-best 166 1/3 innings, Baz logged a hefty 4.87 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP. While his K% climbed to 24.8%, his walk rate also increased slightly, sitting at 9.0%.
However, a deeper dive into his profile suggests most of his damage was done in the hitter's paradise that was the Rays' temporary home. Baz logged 82 1/3 innings in Florida and posted a high 5.90 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP. However, when on the road, Baz was far more productive, posting a 3.86 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over a similar 84 innings.
On the road, he allowed just eight home runs, while he allowed a hefty 18 at home.
Overall, his 3.88 xERA was nearly an entire point lower than his base ERA, and his .230 xBA placed him in the 64th percentile among qualified pitchers. He also raised his ground-ball rate to a strong 47.0% (73rd percentile), compared to the 39.3% rate he generated back in 2024.
Lastly, the changes Baz made to his repertoire also suggest he could be in store for a career year in 2026. In 2024, Baz deployed his slider as his No. 2 pitch (21.3% usage). But it was quite ineffective, posting a .336 xwOBA with m odest 22.1% whiff rate. However, in 2025, Baz ditched his slider (3.0% usage) and instead used his curveball as his No. 2 pitch (26.9% usage), and his strikeout numbers soared.
This pitch generated whiffs at a 29.5% rate while posting a .249 xwOBA.
The 26-year-old has the upside to post an above-average K% while maintaining solid ratios. Baz is a strong buy at his ADP just outside pick 200.
Chase DeLauter, OF, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 295
While I considered including Addison Barger or Luke Keaschall, I discussed both in a previous breakout piece this offseason and will instead spotlight another name, one of the top prospects in Cleveland.
The 24-year-old is currently considered the No. 46-ranked prospect in the sport on MLB.com but has yet to showcase his true potential. DeLauter has consistently been limited by injuries throughout his MiLB career. However, when on the field, he has produced at a high level and appears poised for a full-time role in Cleveland at the start of the season.
In 2025, he played just 42 games, and the year prior, he appeared in only 39. Last summer, DeLauter spent most of his time at Triple-A Columbus (34 games), posting a strong .278/.383/.476 line with eight doubles, five home runs, and a 23:22 K:BB. The year prior, DeLauter held a .261/.341/.500 line with eight long balls and a 22:19 K:BB with most of his time being at Double-A.
DeLauter has been just as impressive in spring training, holding a .538/.571/.923 line across five contests.
He is currently slated to be the everyday center fielder in Cleveland and has faced minimal competition for at-bats. While he is at a higher injury risk and will likely miss time, the Guardians appear focused on giving him his long-awaited first start in the majors. DeLauter has the side to prove a high average while amassing strong counting stats, given his great on-base skills.
He is a top choice when looking for a No. 5/No. 6 OF with upside.
Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox
ADP: 221
Colston Montgomery is a former top prospect but reached the majors at a low point in his MiLB career. In 2024, Montgomery held a modest .214/.329/.381 line across 130 games at Triple-A. In 2025, Montgomery posted a similar 218/.298/.435 line across his 55 games at Triple-A ahead of his MLB promotion.
However, once he reached Chicago, the former first-round pick flipped a switch. Over his first 71 games in the majors, Montgomery posted a .239/.311/.529 line with an .840 OPS. During this half-season stint, Montgomery launched 21 home runs while adding 55 RBI and 43 runs. On a 162-game pace, Montgomery would have hit 48 home runs.
While managers should go into the 2026 season expecting him to give Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh a solid battle for the AL HR title, he has the raw skill set to hit 30+ HRs, which makes him an appealing target at his price tag.
Under the hood, Montgomery generated an elite .341 xwOBA with a 14.5% barrel rate and a 77.0 mph average bat speed. All three marks were well above average and suggest that his power production was not a fluke. His .501 xSLG was also right in line with his face value .529 SLG.
Additionally, Montgomery generated a remarkable 27.2% Pull AIR% with a 111.4 mph max exit velocity, placing him in the top 8% of the sport.
452 FEET. COLSON MONTGOMERY. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/S7MeNJljG3
— White Sox on CHSN (@CHSN_WhiteSox) August 10, 2025
The only knock on his profile is his 29.2% K% (for points leagues) and his low batting average (.230 xBA). However, drafting a middle infielder with legit 30+ HR upside past pick 200 allows you to protect your batting average earlier in the draft and still have the opportunity to acquire one of the game's top budding power hitters in the later rounds.
With Montgomery slated to be in a full-time role and minimal competition behind him, the young slugger could be a major plus in both HRs and RBIs.
Jack Leiter, SP, Texas Rangers
ADP: 244
The other American League starting pitcher you should look to target past pick 200 is Jack Leiter of the Texas Rangers. Leiter is the definition of a "post-hype" breakout as he entered the majors with an elite prospect pedigree but has yet to show it over a consistent stretch.
The Rangers drafted Leiter out of Vanderbilt with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. Leiter made his MLB debut in 2024 and logged 35 2/3 innings to the tune of an 8.83 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP.
In 2025, Leiter spent most of the season with Texas and began to show some development. While his overall line of a 3.86 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP (over 151 2/3 innings) does not scream the production of a rising star, under the hood, he made several changes to his pitch-mix that open the door for him to provide high-end value at this price tag.
Before the All-Star break, Leiter logged 80 1/3 innings to the tune of a 4.37 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP. However, during the second half, Leiter held a much stronger 3.28 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP, over 71 1/3 innings.
What changed?
From July on, the right-hander leaned heavily on his four-seamer and raised his changeup and curveball usage, while dropping his slider and sinker.
His soldier posted a solid .299 xwOBA but generated a modest 26.3% whiff rate. However, his changeup, which became his new "No. 2" pitch, posted a 32.2% whiff rate with a .298 xwOBA. His curveball also became quite effective, posting a 34.1% hwiff rate with a .293 xwOBA.
The curveball showed promise and could develop into a strong No. 3/No. 4 pitch alongside the slider.
His four-seamer ranked in the 91st percentile on Baseball Savant in Fastball Run Value, which is an excellent sign, given that he nearly deployed it almost 50% of the time over the final two months.
The path is there for Leiter to take an even larger step forward in his second full season. Managers looking for a high-upside strikeout pitcher in the latter rounds should target Leiter at his ADP.
Grant Taylor, RP, Chicago White Sox
ADP: 438
Let's round this list out with a breakout reliever. Even though Grant Taylor is penciled in to the team's setup man behind free-agent acquisition Seranthony Dominguez, he still holds value in standard leagues and could potentially take over the ninth inning later in the campaign.
The former 51st overall pick made his MLB debut last summer on the South Side and logged 36 2/3 innings with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He posted a neltie 34.4% K% but struggled with his command, holding a high 9.6% BB%.
However, he generated a much lower 2.91 xERA with a .213 xBA, suggesting he should see significant positive regression in his pitching ratios.
Taylor relies primarily on three pitches: a four-seamer (55.4%), a curveball (21.6%), and a cutter (16.6%), and occasionally mixes in a slider (6.4%). His four-seamer posted a stellar .262 xwOBA (.292 wOBA on the surface) with a 31.1% whiff rate.
His curveball was elite but was very unlucky, posting a .191 xwOBA (.271 wOBA) with an eye-catching 37.0% whiff rate.
From a batted-ball perspective, Taylor generated a high 51.1% ground-ball rate with a 5.7% barrel rate, both of which would have placed him in the top percentiles if he logged enough innings.
Taylor is a top target in saves+holds leagues, but he should remain on the radar in standard leagues due to his elite K% and the upside to overtake the closer job later in the season. Even if he only chips in 8-10 saves, his high-end strikeout totals and elite ratios will be worth rostering in standard formats.
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