2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA Power Rankings: Top 10 Golfers To Watch

March 4, 2026

Ian McNeill ranks his top-10 PGA Tour players to watch at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. His data-backed insights into who is primed for success.

So how does this field stack up at the top? Who profiles best for Bay Hill’s legendary gauntlet? Where might the betting value lie before Thursday’s opening tee shot? Without further ado, here are my top-10 players to watch at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational!

No. 10 - Ludvig Aberg

Making it look easy from off the green 👊

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An eagle start for Ludvig Åberg has him moving up early in the final round @TheGenesisInv.

📺PGA TOUR Live on ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/5KqPp7XDwU

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 22, 2026

We’ve seemingly had the same conversation about Ludvig Åberg for three events running. As his betting number drifts toward 40-1, the question remains: does the upside case still justify belief? And can he realistically take down a field stacked with elite, in-form competitors despite some recent inconsistency?

Granted, a “bad” stretch for Åberg looks different than it does for most professionals. Outside of a rough (+3) opening round at Pebble Beach, the Swede has played his last seven rounds at a cumulative 23-under par -- highlighted by a Sunday 66 at Riviera Country Club, where he carded five birdies and an eagle to backdoor a T20 finish.

To add further fuel to the fire, Åberg's statistical case at Bay Hill may make even more sense than on either of those aforementioned West Coast venues, as his rare combination of total driving and long-iron play seems custom-built for the game's most demanding layouts. Over the last 12 months, he ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 1st in Approach Proximity from >200 yards.

Åberg also profiles as a strong putter on fast Bermuda surfaces, ranking sixth in this field on a per-round basis. And in three career starts at Bay Hill, he has never gained fewer than 2.0 strokes on the greens -- averaging +3.5 strokes gained per tournament.

These statistical underpinnings make this one of the cleanest course-fit cases on the board. At current prices, he’s hardly a massive investment on outright cards, and even his most skeptical critics must acknowledge the ceiling. His top-end outcome remains a vivid image: standing on the 18th green Sunday evening in Arnold Palmer's iconic red cardigan.

No. 9 - Xander Schauffele

We’re still a start or two away from regaining full trust in Xander Schauffele as a true contender against the game’s elite, but his T7 at Riviera Country Club two weeks ago was easily his most encouraging performance of the young season.

Yes, Riviera played softer and slightly neutered compared to its usual bite. But Schauffele gained strokes in every major category across four rounds and ranked fifth in Greens in Regulation for the week. His +6.33 tee-to-green performance was comfortably his best showing of 2026 -- and perhaps more importantly, the driver finally cooperated.

After spending much of 2025 fighting off-the-tee inconsistencies, Schauffele has gained over 8.3 strokes Off the Tee across his last three starts. That’s a meaningful correction for a club that once felt like a liability.

The problem? Bay Hill is merciless to even minor driving errors. Last year, players who missed the fairway incurred a 0.50-shot penalty on average -- the third-highest mark on Tour. And despite the recent gains, Schauffele still ranks 62nd of 69 players in this field in driving accuracy.

Even beyond the tee ball, it’s difficult to point to a singular elite weapon that profiles perfectly here. He sits outside the top 40 over the past 12 months, both in Around the Green and Putting, and even the long-iron play that once defined his ceiling has dipped below Tour average to begin 2026.

There is still enough class in Schauffele’s game to believe a spike week is coming. But at this stage, betting markets continue to price in a version of Xander we simply haven’t seen consistently in nearly 18 months. Even at his peak, 20-1 was often a thin outright number -- and this current iteration appears a step or two shy of the player who once climbed to No. 2 in the world.

Bay Hill will serve as an excellent barometer. If Schauffele can eclipse his career-best finish of T24 in Orlando, confidence will shift quickly heading into The Players Championship next week.

No. 8 - Si Woo Kim

Fantastic shot, even better reaction.

Si Woo Kim ends his week in style! pic.twitter.com/YlstJX1aXH

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 16, 2025

At a venue that saw the likes of Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, and Corey Conners populate the top of the leaderboard 12 months ago, Si Woo Kim immediately becomes an intriguing fit.

Like those names, Kim thrives on precision over pure power. He ranks second in this field in Driving Accuracy over his last 75 rounds, and his long-iron play stacks up with anyone in the sport. From 150–200 yards, he ranks second in Proximity to the Hole, and sixth from 200+ -- a profile tailor-made for Bay Hill.

What often goes overlooked is the short game. Over that same 75-round sample, Kim grades out above both Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy around the greens, while ranking fifth in average proximity from greenside bunkers -- a skill that will be heavily tested on a layout guarded by 54 bunkers and some of the fastest putting surfaces players will see all year. Two seasons ago, Bay Hill ranked as the fifth-most difficult course on Tour from the sand.

The putter remains the variable. It’s the club that has prevented Kim from converting strong tee-to-green weeks into victories. But recent history here suggests elite putting isn’t mandatory. Morikawa, Conners, and even Scottie Scheffler have proven you can contend at Bay Hill by simply holding serve on the greens. Kim himself has gained strokes, putting in three of his last six appearances in Orlando -- which, admittedly, is more optimism than some of my past Si Woo write-ups have allowed.

On a course designed to expose even the smallest weaknesses, Kim simply possesses too many elite traits to dismiss. If the putter cooperates even marginally, his statistical profile screams contender.

No. 7 - Kurt Kitayama

The 2023 champion of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Kurt Kitayama, enters this year’s edition in even better form than he showed prior to his breakthrough victory three years ago. Since the start of last summer, Kitayama has quietly authored one of the most impressive ball-striking stretches in professional golf.

Over the past nine months, only Scheffler and Kim have gained more strokes from tee-to-green. He's long been known as one of the more proven long-iron commodities on Tour: rating in the 98th percentile in Approach Proximity from beyond 200 yards. On a course that sees nearly 30% of its historical approach shots come from this range, those splits carry a bit of extra weight.

Most recently, Kitayama recorded the best ball-striking display we've seen at Riviera (+9.4) in three iterations of the Genesis Invitational.

Outside of his 2023 triumph, Bay Hill hasn’t been overly kind — highlighted by a missed cut the following year after rounds of 78-73. But current form outweighs distant scar tissue, and few players in this field are striking it as purely right now.

As he proved three years ago, Kitayama will not be frightened in a field filled with the world's best. He stared down and beat the likes of Scheffler, McIlroy, and Viktor Hovland to claim his first PGA Tour title. Given his present trajectory, he firmly belongs in the second tier of players capable of lifting this trophy again.

No. 6 - Russell Henley

With finishes of first and fourth over the past two seasons at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, this week could be the perfect tonic for what has been an underwhelming start to Henley’s 2026 campaign.

Henley still sits seventh in the Official World Golf Ranking, but his missed cut at last month’s Genesis Invitational marked his first weekend absence since last May’s PGA Championship. Combined with his -1.42 rating at Pebble Beach, the -1.65 strokes he lost on approach at Riviera mark the worst two-week iron stretch we've seen from Henley in three full years.

The good news? A return to his beloved Bermudagrass, and a set of green complexes where he has gained a combined 9.24 strokes putting across the past two editions. His lack of distance also becomes less punitive on Bay Hill’s firm fairways, and zooming out, he remains one of the Tour’s premier long-iron players, ranking in the 90th percentile in both Approach Proximity and Strokes Gained per Shot from beyond 200 yards.

Those long-term baselines are what underpin the Henley case this week. His floor feels significantly higher here than it did in rain-soaked Southern California. The only question is whether his current form is sharp enough to replicate the contending efforts we’ve seen in Orlando the past two years.

If there were any lingering doubts about Morikawa’s return to the top tier of the PGA Tour, a closing T7 on the West Coast put most of them to rest. At Riviera Country Club, Morikawa gained strokes in all four major categories, including +5.4 with his ball-striking alone -- good for seventh in that elite field.

Of course, 12 months ago at Bay Hill, Morikawa came within one shot of lifting the King’s trophy. He held the lead for much of Sunday afternoon before Henley’s chip-in eagle at the 16th ultimately swung the tournament.

Morikawa will be hungry for a reprieve in 2026. Through four starts this season, Morikawa ranks 11th on Tour in Total Driving and sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach -- numbers that reaffirm his place among the game’s premier ball-strikers. At this very venue in 2020, he delivered one of the most dominant tee-to-green performances of his career, gaining 4.0 strokes Off the Tee and 10.6 on Approach en route to a ninth-place finish.

With a win already secured in 2026, some of the strongest incoming form in this loaded field, and proven comfort on this layout, Morikawa casts as large a shadow as anyone in Orlando this week. He has been vocal about his desire to reclaim his place at the very top of the sport, and Bay Hill presents another prime opportunity to do exactly that.

No. 4 - Tommy Fleetwood

It doesn't feel as if Tommy Fleetwood has gotten out of second gear in 2026, yet in two appearances on the PGA Tour, he's recorded finishes of seventh and fourth.

This week, he'll return to Florida -- a state where he has a much stronger history than on the West Coast. In nine starts at Bay Hill since 2017, he's logged five top-20 finishes, including a T3 in 2019 when he shared the 36-hole lead.

Elsewhere in the Sunshine State, Fleetwood has posted finishes of third and fourth in three starts at PGA National Golf Club, two top-7 results at TPC Sawgrass, and a T3 at the 2023 Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor.

Statistically, there isn't anyone outside of Scheffler who matches Tommy’s all-around acumen. Over the past nine months, he ranks 10th in Driving Accuracy, 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and third in Strokes Gained with his short game.

That spotless profile should play exceedingly well at a venue that demands competence across every facet of the game. In fact, seven of the last eight champions here have gained strokes in all four major categories.

On a course where 10 of the 18 holes feature Double-or-Worse rates above 2.5%, Fleetwood has proven he’s among the best on Tour at keeping big numbers off the card. He ranks second over the last 12 months in Double Bogey Avoidance and seventh in Regular Bogey Avoidance.

All signs point to Fleetwood as the clear third in command behind Scottie and Rory — and for the first time this season, we have a venue where historical proof of concept aligns with his current form. If he can continue to stack fairways and eliminate mistakes, a breakthrough at Bay Hill feels firmly within reach.

I’ve been highlighting Matt Fitzpatrick as a breakout candidate since the season began -- and Bay Hill feels like one of the best remaining opportunities on the schedule for that long-awaited win.

After leading the field in ball-striking at Pebble Beach Golf Links, Fitzpatrick added another +5.84 strokes from tee-to-green at Riviera Country Club --  good for the fifth-best mark in that elite field. Over the past six months, he ranks third in this field in strokes gained per round combined through driving and iron play.

That ball-striking pedigree becomes even more compelling when you examine his history in Orlando. In 10 career starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Fitzpatrick has never lost strokes on the greens -- averaging over one stroke gained per round in that span -- and he led the field in putting here 12 months ago with a +7.22 rating on the greens.

There is little indication that his recent surge with the long game will fade as the Tour shifts east. Bay Hill’s historical emphasis on long-iron precision plays directly into Fitzpatrick’s strengths. Over the past 12 months, he ranks first in this field in both Strokes Gained per Shot (+0.095) and Greens in Regulation from beyond 200 yards (61.4%) -- a range that accounted for nearly 30% of approach shots at Bay Hill last season.

In addition to those elite approach and putting indicators, Fitzpatrick has gained 8.4 strokes off the tee over his last three events and has lost strokes around the greens just twice across his last 16 worldwide starts.

At this point, there aren’t many statistical arguments left to poke holes in his Bay Hill projection. While he currently sits outside the top tier at No. 22 in the Official World Golf Ranking, it’s difficult to identify more than four or five players in this field who could reasonably be favored over him this week.

Rory has done his part through two starts in 2026 to prove the gap is closing between him and World No. 1 Scheffler. At Pebble Beach Golf Links, he defended his 2025 title with the third-best tee-to-green week in the field (+7.96). The very next week at Riviera Country Club, he mounted a Sunday back-nine charge that came one shot short of Jacob Bridgeman’s winning total -- while lapping the field by more than a stroke and a half from tee to green (+10.08).

That form makes him a compelling second favorite at Bay Hill Club & Lodge -- a venue where he owns a win (2018), a runner-up finish (2023), and three additional top-six results across his last nine starts.

In particular, his driver has stabilized after a year that saw him finish 177th of 180 players in driving accuracy. Over his last 11 worldwide starts, McIlroy has hovered comfortably around field average off the tee -- a meaningful improvement as we arrive at a venue where driving accuracy has been such an important through line for past champions.

If the driver continues to cooperate, this layout rewards Rory as much as almost anyone in the field. His ability to launch high, controlled long irons makes him one of the few players capable of holding firm greens from beyond 200 yards, and his all-around short game acumen has proven it can reliably get him out of trouble when he needs it: gaining strokes around the greens in seven of his last eight starts at Bay Hill.

While he ranks second on this list, it's difficult to argue the gap to No. 1 is as wide as current odds have it listed. I'm very much interested in the current 11-1 outright proposition on McIlroy. He clearly profiles as Scottie's most dangerous challenger, and a prime candidate to add another trophy to his Bay Hill resume.