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Joe Idone's @TourPicks Exclusive Course Preview and Breakdown for the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship. He offers a comprehensive preview and concentrated analysis for TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN, using historical data and current trends to prep for PGA DFS lineups.
We have finally made it to the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the top 70 players in the season-long FedEx Cup rankings are walking in Memphis to take on a familiar course in TPC Southwind. Big-time money will be on the line over the next three weeks and a premium is placed on points to maximize your chances at Eastlake for the Tour Championship and earn yourself a decent starting position in the staggered format.
All players in the field this week are guaranteed 72 holes in this no-cut style tournament. The top 50 in the standings after this week will advance to Castle Pines next week for the BMW Championship. The focus will be on TPC Southwind this week which has been a mainstay destination of the PGA Tour since 1989. Although it only plays as a Par 70, this course offers a solid variety of holes with a closing finish that often becomes a roller coaster ride for those players attempting to close the deal on Sunday.
I wanted to use this piece to hopefully highlight a few different angles and elements that may be less spoken about to provide some value in this course preview. I'm hopeful that you can utilize this to get your research started with a proper understanding of how the golf course should affect which player attributes are the most important for success. In this course preview, we'll delve into some of the distinctive features that make TPC Southwind unique in hopes that it can help is predict the winner!
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An Introduction to TPC Southwind
In 1988, TPC Southwind was opened up in Memphis, Tennessee, an area starved for elite championship-caliber golf courses. The course was designed by architect Ron Prichard, who enlisted the help of PGA Tour players Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller to build a challenging course that was vast enough to host professional tournaments while maintaining a decent playability for amateurs on the weekends.
Zoeller and Green had a ton of input and wanted to ensure that the course put a strict requirement of precision and shotmaking. They did so with water, choosing to line many of the fairways and greens with hazards to place an emphasis on accuracy throughout the golf course. This tournament has drawn some criticism, mostly because of its selection into the FedEx Cup Playoffs course rotation and the decision to play this event in the sweltering August heat of Tennessee. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-90's all week.
The relationship between the PGA Tour, this tournament, and the St. Jude Children's hospital is one of the coolest aspects of this event. It began in 1969 when the original St. Jude Classic was first held, with all tournament proceeds benefitting the hospital. It's part of the reason that this tournament was elevated to a playoff event in 2022 as the PGA Tour wanted to solidify its relationship with St. Jude. This tournament plays a critical role in raising money and awareness for the hospital and the players have really gotten behind the movement as well. It's for the kids, something we can all appreciate.
"This one's for y'all."#FedExChamp | @StJude pic.twitter.com/Riyc004E8E
— FedEx St. Jude Championship (@FedExChamp) August 14, 2023
Scorecard:
Course Specs
Let's get this out of the way to start. It's mid-August, and it's hot everywhere. The temperature difference between Miami, FL, and New York City this week is about 8 degrees. It's also going to be hot in Memphis, but I'm not here for the narrative that this course is a terrible selection based on the weather this time of year alone. Are there other great destinations that deserve more of a PGA Tour presence? Possibly, but I think this event provides ample difficulty and the opportunity for players to fly up/down the leaderboard during the closing stretch which I think matters a great deal.
The defining feature that creates challenges at TPC Southwind is the water. It's not so subtly involved on 11 holes and ranks highly in terms of penalty strokes issued for errant shots every season. The fairways and greens are adequately protected by 75 total bunkers on the property. Golf course superintendent Nick Bisanz is now in his 9th year of preparing TPC Southwind for tournament golf in the August heat, and I think he has done a commendable job. In the last five years, the average winning score has been between -13 and -16 which is remarkably consistent.
The fairways are narrow and often bordered by water on one side of them. The average width of the fairways in the most popular landing areas is only 25 yards wide. Many players error to the opposite side of the water, but the 2.5-inch bermudagrass rough is also very penal and unpredictable. The fairways consist of the perfect bright green zoysiagrass that Tour players gush about, making the importance of playing from the fairway paramount at TPC Southwind.
The greens are microscopic. They average only 4,300 st ft and feature some of the fastest Champion bermudagrass on Tour. The slopes are incredibly slick and you will see a lot of 3-putts despite the greens being so small, just because players have to be so cautious of the downhill putts. That said, by strokes gained statistics, they still rank pretty easy to putt and we have seen several winners here that are able to prevail despite being below-average putters.
TPC Southwind...#FedExStJude
Narrow Fairways + Penal Rough + Tons of Water + Tiny Greens = Ball-Strikers Paradise
Read all the player quotes here: https://t.co/T02gStoVWg pic.twitter.com/8woMPuguo8
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) August 9, 2022
Statistical Considerations
The formula for success is straightforward but not easy to achieve. You have an abundance of water, very challenging rough to judge, and some of the tiniest greens on Tour...meaning you better have a great week BallStriking (strokes gained OTT + Approach). You have to be in control of your golf ball. The advantage position of playing from the fairway into these small greens vs. trying to judge the Bermuda rough is massive.
At 7,200 yards, the distance is not going to preclude any of the shorter hitters from competing here. If you had to pick one, distance or accuracy, I would take Driving Accuracy ten out of ten times. If you look at the top 20 players on previous leaderboards, the majority of them were near the top of accuracy off the tee for the week. The water creates such a different dynamic than courses that only have rough to protect against a bomb and gauge tactic.
Hitting the fairway is only half the battle. Step two is hitting the green. I'm factoring in Strokes Gained Approach heavily. If you want to look at specific distances, last season 75% of all approach shots came from 100-200 yards. That number is roughly 13% higher than the tour average. Players are going to hit a ton of short to mid irons and with greens that are well-protected and small, being proficient with those clubs is a huge indicator for success.
Lastly, a few other stats that I am using in my model include Bermuda Putting, Greens in Regulation on courses with difficult-to-hit fairways, and course history. Another interesting stat that I wanted to look at was how a player performs Tee-to-Green on courses with a ton of water. I filtered SG; Tee-to-Green from the following eight courses to get a look: TPC Southwind, Sedgefield, Le Golf National, TPC Twin Cities, TPC Scottsdale, TPC Sawgrass, Bay Hill, and PGA National. Here are the top 10 players over the last 24 rounds played.
- Scottie Scheffler (duh)
- Si Woo Kim
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Justin Thomas (eyes emoji)
- Rory McIlroy
- Shane Lowry
- Xander Schauffele
- Tony Finau
- Will Zalatoris
- Aaron Rai
Approach Shot Distribution (Datagolf)
RadarPlot (TPC Southwind) vs. Avg. PGA Tour Course
Top 10 Best Adjusted Player Course Fits for the FedEx St. Jude Championship:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Aaron Rai
- Rory McIlroy
- Xander Schauffele
- Collin Morikawa
- Sungjae Im
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Tom Kim
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Davis Thompson
Good luck and enjoy the 2024 St. Jude!
