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Adam Koffler identifies four fantasy football WR sleepers who are undervalued in 2024. Draft these fantasy football wide receiver sleepers in 2024.
What's a sleeper anyway? Generally speaking, it's a player who's either lesser-known or undervalued by the market. It could be a guy people aren't thinking about for a variety of reasons. However, each one of these guys highlighted in this article offers some upside at a relatively cheap acquisition cost.
They're not going to command 150 targets, but each one of these players can far outperform their average draft position (ADP) this season. It starts with being a good player. All four of these players have shown an ability to perform when given the opportunity. This season, they're going to continue getting those opportunities for one reason or another.
A couple of these guys even have contingency upside should a player in front of them on the depth chart be forced to miss any games. Think about it similarly to your favorite handcuff running back. You're taking them with a late pick, but if anything happens to the guy in front of them, they're going to put up numbers that far exceed their acquisition cost. Here are four fantasy football wide receiver sleepers in 2024 that should be on your radar.
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Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
No more Keenan Allen. No more Mike Williams. No more Austin Ekeler. No more Gerald Everett. The Chargers added Ladd McConkey via the 2024 NFL Draft and DJ Chark via Free Agency, but there’s very little competition for targets in Los Angeles these days. Enter 4th-year receiver Joshua Palmer. Lucky for us, we’ve seen Palmer operate as the WR1 with both Allen and Williams missing time in the last two seasons. In those five games, he averaged 70.8 yards on eight targets per game.
Palmer had a target rate of 22% and a target share of 22.6%. Ekeler had 41 targets in those five games as well and we know what he brought to the Chargers’ passing game the last handful of seasons.
But because Palmer is primarily an outside receiver, it’s a bit more helpful to look at his production with and without Williams as opposed to with and without Allen. My friend Jacob Gibbs was kind enough to do that analysis for us, and the results are telling.
The jury is still out on McConkey and Chark could be a decent piece, but Palmer has already developed a rapport with Justin Herbert over the last three seasons. Notice how we have yet to mention Quentin Johnston. His rookie film was rough, and the data unfortunately supports that premise. And while the data suggest QJ isn’t very good, it conversely paints a decent picture of Palmer:
Sure, the Chargers might not pass as much under Jim Harbaugh, but Palmer could easily be WR1 on this team and attain a 23% target share with all those target hogs now gone. 30 pass attempts per game would give Palmer a career-high 117 targets, or 6.9 per game. For reference, that’d be more targets per game than Zay Flowers, Diontae Johnson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins all had in 2023.
Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints
Rashid Shaheed flashed late in his rookie season on limited snaps. It was enough to give him more of an established role in 2023. His routes run increased from 14.7 per game as a rookie to 28.6 per game in his second season. His target share also increased from 10.4% to 14.3%. While 14.3% isn’t anything to write home about, the increase is notable, especially for a receiver who gets a ton of deep targets. Shaheed saw the 15th-most deep targets (25) in 2023 (via PlayerProfiler).
But he’s more than just a deep threat. According to Matt Harmon, Shaheed “can beat man coverage as a real route runner.” And the data tells the same story. Last season, he was 23rd among wide receivers in both route win rate (51.3%) and win rate vs. man coverage (41.5%). Shaheed was winning vs. man coverage at a higher rate than Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and even teammate Chris Olave believe it or not.
In 2024, Shaheed is locked in as the Saints WR2. That’s key, especially when you consider what new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak was able to do last season as the passing game coordinator in San Francisco:
Kubiak got a taste of the Kyle Shanahan offense last season, and the hope is that he can bring some of that with him to New Orleans. Thanks to Seth Walder, we see Kubiak and the 49ers were one of the top teams in motion at the snap in 2023. The other teams at the top produced some fantasy monsters last season, including Tyreek Hill and Puka Nacua. I'm not saying Shaheed is either of those guys, but he’s going to get a boost from Kubiak’s offensive philosophy.
Shaheed is undervalued right now with an ADP of just 110.9 (WR55) on Underdog. That’s below aging veterans Tyler Lockett and Mike Williams that lack a certain ceiling outcome we yearn for in fantasy football. In Shaheed, we’re talking about a young guy with juice that could potentially break out in Year 3 with an increase in opportunity and an adjustment in offensive philosophy.
Demario Douglas, New England Patriots
The Patriots took a flier in the 6th round of the 2023 NFL Draft on an undersized receiver out of Liberty. His name is DeMario “Pop” Douglas, and he actually looked pretty good as a rookie. Despite not seeing a 50% snap share until Week 7, the former Day Three pick found himself in good company last season:
Despite the Patriots selecting Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker in the 2024 Draft, the receiver room in New England is wide open. Rookie wideouts always have a chance to pop (no pun intended), but it’s Douglas who has already proven to be a good route-runner. In fact, he even got the ever-so-important Matt Harmon stamp of approval during his rookie season:
So Douglas showed an ability to get open and command targets as a rookie. Now he heads into Year Two among an ambiguous group of pass-catchers with no clear WR1. Not only that, but it’s possible he’s catching passes from Drake Maye. The rookie quarterback out of North Carolina recently said that Pop reminds him of another receiver he played with in college, Josh Downs. “Can’t guard them in a phone booth, they’re twitchy,” said Maye. Back in 2022, Downs caught 94 balls for 1,029 yards and 11 touchdowns on 120 targets from Maye.
And it’s a new era in New England. Gone are the days of a slow-paced offense under Bill Belichick and Bill O’Brien. The Patriots' offense will now be run by Alex Van Pelt, the former offensive coordinator for the Cleveland Browns. Over the last two seasons, the Browns have averaged a league-high 67.7 plays per game. That included the 4th-most pass attempts per game (37.2) last season. Meanwhile, the Patriots averaged just 32.4 pass attempts and 59.6 plays per game in the last two seasons.
New England has the lowest projected win total in the league and will have to face three high-powered offenses in the AFC East a total of six times. That should lead to a ton of pass attempts, which should in turn lead to a ton of targets for DeMario Douglas. Don’t sleep on what could very well be the Patriots’ WR1 this season. And with a price tag of just WR81 (ADP 183.6) on Underdog, he’s essentially free in drafts.
Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams
After six seasons with the Chiefs and one season with the Ravens, Demarcus Robinson signed with the Rams before the 2023 season. It took until after the Bye last season for him to see meaningful playing time, but once he did, he produced. Believe it or not, between Weeks 13 and 17, Robinson put up 13.3 half PPR points per game. That was good for WR19 during that stretch. He averaged 90.4 air yards per game and was playing between 85 and 95% of the snaps. He had a real role in a high-powered passing attack.
Robinson wasn’t even taking away from teammates Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp during that stretch of games late in the season. Nacua averaged 17.2 half-PPR points per game, while Kupp averaged 14.8. Together, the Rams receivers combined for 45.3 half-PPR points per game. That’s a lot of fantasy points. For reference, Seattle’s three receivers (DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba combined to average 32.8 half-PPR points per game.
Sean McVay loves his wide receivers:
As a result, not only does Robinson have stand-alone value as a possible flex, but he's got a ton of contingent upside should Nacua or Kupp miss any time. Just check out the depth chart after the top three guys. It’s Tutu Atwell (who Robinson passed on the depth chart late last season), Jordan Whittington (a 6th-round pick out of Texas), and a bunch of other guys with little to no production in the NFL. The Rams also gave Robinson a 1-year, $4M contract this offseason, further signaling their intent to use him as their WR3. And he’s free in drafts right now, with an early ADP of 185.9 (WR82) on Underdog.
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