2024 College Football Playoff Picture, Projections, Outlook (Week 15 Update)

We have completed the college football season. What does the new 12-team college football playoff bracket look like before Conference Championship Week? Mike Marteny takes a look.

This was intended to be a monthly update of the playoff picture, but things have gotten wild in the first couple weeks of November. Wild enough that we at RotoBaller thought it was necessary to do a weekly update for the last few weeks of the season. Week 14 saw Georgia survive, and no fewer than six fights broke out during Rivalry Week. It's all we could have asked for.

There was some chaos this week, but Ohio State's loss to Michigan (again) only means they get a week off and don't have to play Oregon a second time. My working conspiracy theory is that the Buckeyes lost on purpose, so they didn't have to face Oregon again. I'm sticking to it. Miami's loss could make the ACC interesting again.

This new playoff system ushers in a new era of college football. I have been openly critical, and I fear that once the novelty of all of these conference games wears off, we will be left with an unimportant regular season and a 32-team playoff. You know they're not stopping at 12. Rivalry week was just as important even though the outcome of "The Game" didn't matter in the grand scheme of things for the Buckeyes.

College Football Playoff Overview

First, we should explain how it works. There are five automatic bids to the playoff. The five highest-ranked conference winners are all in automatically. That will be the Power Four conference winners plus the next-highest-ranked conference champion.

Since the Pac-12 isn't a conference again (yet), Washington State and Oregon State will be treated as independents. That's a moot point this year. The top-four-ranked teams will be given a first round "bye."

BREAKING:

The CFP has just approved the 5+7 12-team playoff model.

5 highest-ranked conference champions + 7 highest-ranked at-large teams will get a spot.

The 2024 CFP will have one less automatic qualifier and one more at-large spot than the previously proposed 6+6 model. pic.twitter.com/Q0tQAcZ4J1

— Sidelines - Bama (@SSN_Alabama) February 20, 2024

That leaves seven at-large playoff teams. Again, we will have a committee to choose these teams. Those seven teams plus the other conference champion will play in the first round. Those games are held at the home stadium of the higher-ranked team.

This will be an exciting time for those teams. Honestly, I have always thought that the college football playoff games should be at on-campus stadiums instead of half-empty ready-made bowl stadiums. That is the one part about this playoff that I am in favor of.

Three-loss teams vying for a championship? If I wanted that mess, I would watch football on Sundays, and there is a reason why I don't.

College Football Playoff Automatic Bids

ACC: 

Clemson has three losses, but two of those are to SEC teams. Both of Miami's losses were in the ACC, so they are on the outside looking in. We'll discuss their prospects later. SMU will face Clemson for the ACC Championship. SMU still gets the bid this week.

Big 12:

The Big 12 is a mess. Four teams finished with 7-2 conference records. Colorado's loss to Nebraska in September keeps them out of the discussion. BYU lost the tiebreaker to Iowa State despite a better non-conference win. Arizona State still has the auto bid in our exercise.

Big Ten:

Oregon will face Penn State in the Championship. Penn State holds the tiebreaker over Indiana. Oregon still gets the auto bid.

SEC:

Texas will get a rematch with Georgia in Athens West. Rematches are so boring! Texas still has the bid right now. Check back again on Sunday.

At-Large Champion:

If Boise holds off UNLV again, they're in. If Boise loses, all hell breaks loose.

College Football Playoff At-Large Bids

ACC:

Can the ACC sneak three teams in? If Clemson beats SMU, this becomes a serious conversation. The committee claims that a loss in the conference championship won't be an excluding event, but is that true of SMU if they lose big? The only currently ranked team that they beat is Louisville.

If it comes down to SMU or Miami, what does the committee do? Miami's schedule is even worse than SMU and they didn't make the conference championship. I could see a Clemson win knocking the ACC down to one bid. The committee proved what they think of the ACC last year.

As of now, I have Miami out. Both losses were on the road, but both were to unranked teams. They needed miracles to beat Virginia Tech and Cal. Where's the big win? All of the SEC teams we will discuss have at least one big win. Louisville just doesn't cut it.

Big 12: 

This is likely a one-bid league. We can discuss a 10-win team that lost in the conference championship up against a 10-win SEC team that didn't make the CCG. We can have it, but the committee won't.

Right now, we can have a real discussion about Iowa State. However, the "big" wins over Iowa and Kansas State aren't that big right now. No one on the committee cares about Kansas playing up to its potential late in the season. That loss still counts as a loss to a 5-win team. As much as I hate to say it, Iowa State is out.

Big Ten:

Loss to Michigan notwithstanding, Ohio State is still in. If the committee compares them to Indiana, they'll stop at the head-to-head even though Ohio State has one more loss. Penn State is in regardless of the outcome.

That leaves three teams and the question of Indiana. I don't know about you, but I want Indiana in there. The score belies how close they were to Ohio State for much of that game. One turnover and one kickoff return changed the game.

I feel like they deserve another shot, especially after what they did to Purdue. Indiana made a statement in their rivalry game. Not many others did. I understand that Purdue is a bad team, but Ohio State lost to the worst Michigan team in the last 10 years. That matters. If we penalize Ohio State for losing to a rival as a big favorite, we need to give Indiana props for handling the game as they should.

SEC: 

Tennessee is one of those teams that will benefit from not having to play in the conference championship. I don't think they'll move up to the 5-seed, but they will still likely host a playoff game. A three-loss Georgia team is still in. If that third loss had come to the Wreck...who knows?

Does the SEC get a fourth team in? Right now, I think they do...and that's exactly what the committee wants. The ACC and Big 12 cannibalized themselves to the point where the committee can render them both one-bid leagues. This model was built with the Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame in mind. It's a committee's dream.

Who's the fourth team? Alabama has all of those top 25 wins but lost to two six-loss teams. South Carolina is a juggernaut right now. If they value how a team has played lately (as I do), South Carolina is in (as they are for me). The Gamecocks have beaten three ranked teams in the last six weeks.

Why South Carolina Deserves A Spot In The College Football Playoff Over Alabama ??? (written by @jswise7)

This is elite level thought by my guy Joe that needs to be seen by Gamecock Nation and the College Football Playoff Committee

Let’s begin the thread:

1. Criteria pic.twitter.com/Qbh2IOQCFB

— J.P. Hovey (@jhovey34) December 2, 2024

Those pesky teams that won't join a conference:

We're only talking about Notre Dame here. Who else would it be? Washington State and Oregon State would love to join a conference. Notre Dame's only loss is to a 7-5 MAC team. The win over Army and how they did it only helped their cause. USC will be dismissed because it's a rivalry. However, the Irish came up with a big play when they needed it. Not every team did.

What I came up with for the seven at-large teams: Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Notre Dame.

College Football Playoff as of December 3, 2024

Byes: Oregon (1), Texas (2), SMU (8), Boise State (10)

Other automatic qualifier: Arizona State (12)

At-large teams: Penn State (3), Notre Dame (4), Georgia (5), Tennessee (6), Ohio State (7), Indiana (9), South Carolina (13)

These super-huge conferences are an issue. They will be the death of the 12-team playoff in a matter of three years or less. If the SEC and Big Ten have their way, it will be the death of college football in the same span. They don't want the other conferences to have a shot. They gobble up any teams that might take away from their accomplishments (Oregon, Washington, Texas, Oklahoma).

I'm going to draw heat for South Carolina, but I shouldn't. Go watch this team at any point in the last half of the season. The loss to LSU is mired in controversy, most of it warranted. I wonder if the SEC wishes it could go back in time and take away from helping an LSU team that they thought was elite in favor of upstart South Carolina.

If you thought whittling the field down to four was tough (it wasn't ... 2023 was the only year of the four-team playoff where it could have been necessary), wait until you see the arguments over 12! I don't know about you, but I would rather be arguing over which one-loss team deserves a shot over arguing about which three-loss team deserves a shot.

If you're wondering what the older (and better) playoff system would look like now, it would feature two Big Ten and two SEC teams. This was by design. The SEC ruined the Big 12 for this reason. The Big Ten ruined the Pac-12 for the same reason.

If we had the old conferences, it would be one representative from the Big Ten (Penn State), Pac-12 (Oregon), Big 12 (Texas), and SEC (Tennessee). Is that so hard?

Here are a couple of games that could have an impact on the final playoff pool during conference championship week.

UNLV at Boise State: A lot is riding on this. The committee clearly doesn't have an issue with letting Boise in regardless of conference affiliation. It has Ashton Jeanty, and Jeanty draws viewers. If Boise loses this game, you'll see the committee move to get rid of the G5 slot in double time.

Iowa State vs. Arizona State: If this is a close game, do both teams get in? I can make a case for it. Many of you could as well if you wanted to. Arizona State has a better shot with a loss than Iowa State does.

Penn State vs. Oregon and Indianapolis: If Oregon loses, who is the top overall seed? It's just a money grab anyway. No one cares that much about the bye (and, in turn, this game). If Oregon loses, they host a playoff game. Not a bad consolation prize.

Clemson vs. SMU at Charlotte: This will be the biggest game of the weekend for playoff implications. If SMU wins, it's easy. They are in and Miami might be too. Should SMU lose, Clemson, in their three-loss glory, would be an automatic qualifier (and I hate it).

A loss by SMU would give the committee the ammunition it needs to hold the Ponies out. However, they will set a dangerous precedent if they do that. They have repeatedly said that the CCG doesn't weigh as heavily. Actions in the past have disputed that claim. Leaving SMU out this year would obliterate it.

We are still college football fans, so we will argue over whatever they tell us to argue about. The picture is mostly clear to me. I hope I'm wrong. We don't need eight teams from two conferences in a playoff.

The ACC and Big 12 are hurt by not having a powerful team in the conference. Had BYU and Miami kept winning, this may look a little different.

More College Football Analysis

More DFS Lineup Picks