2024 College Football Playoff Picture, Projections, Outlook: Selection Sunday

December 8, 2024

The college football season is over. What does the new 12-team college football playoff bracket look like before Selection Sunday? Mike Marteny takes a look.

Here we sit on the morning of the selection of the largest playoff field college football has ever seen. It feels just like I thought it would: gross. Conference Championship Week was more exciting than usual, even in games that featured teams that were already in. That's good.

There was not an armageddon scenario for the committee this year, but they do have a couple of big decisions to make. Do you kill the cash grabs that are the conference championship games, or do you upset the conference that makes you the most money? Decisions, decisions...

This new playoff system ushers in a new era of college football. I have been openly critical, and I fear that once the novelty of all of these conference games wears off, we will be left with an unimportant regular season and a 32-team playoff. You know they're not stopping at 12. After this season, they should likely move to 16 as early as next year. 12 was a joke of a number anyway.

College Football Playoff Overview

First, we should explain how it works. There are five automatic bids to the playoff. The five highest-ranked conference winners are all in automatically. That will be the Power Four conference winners plus the next-highest-ranked conference champion.

Since the Pac-12 isn't a conference again (yet), Washington State and Oregon State will be treated as independents. That's a moot point this year. The top-4-ranked teams will be given a first-round "bye."

BREAKING:

The CFP has just approved the 5+7 12-team playoff model.

5 highest-ranked conference champions + 7 highest-ranked at-large teams will get a spot.

The 2024 CFP will have one less automatic qualifier and one more at-large spot than the previously proposed 6+6 model. pic.twitter.com/Q0tQAcZ4J1

— Sidelines - Bama (@SSN_Alabama) February 20, 2024

That leaves seven at-large playoff teams. Again, we will have a committee to choose these teams. Those seven teams plus the other conference champion will play in the first round. Those games are held at the home stadium of the higher-ranked team.

This will be an exciting time for those teams. Honestly, I have always thought that the college football playoff games should be at on-campus stadiums instead of half-empty, ready-made bowl stadiums. That is the one part about this playoff that I am in favor of.

Three-loss teams vying for a championship? If I wanted that mess, I would watch football on Sundays, and there is a reason why I don't.

College Football Playoff Automatic Bids

ACC: 

Three losses and SMU storming back in the fourth quarter be damned, Clemson is in the first 12-team playoff as the ACC automatic bid.

Big 12:

Arizona State's late-season surge culminated in a blowout of Iowa State for the automatic bid.

Big Ten:

Oregon understood the assignment: win all of your games. They are the only team that did.

SEC:

A second consecutive overtime game, a second consecutive overtime win. Georgia is in.

At-Large Champion:

It was a foregone conclusion that if Boise won, they would be in. What about Army? Their only loss was to Notre Dame.

College Football Playoff At-Large Bids

ACC:

The CFP committee made it very clear that Miami was out on Tuesday.

Warde Manuel goes on fraudulent @espn and still can’t defend the position on why Alabama is rated higher than Miami, SC, and Ole Miss. Instead, he insists that the rankings are set in stone. Unless SMU loses!! So in other words GET ALABAMA IN AT ALL COST!!!!

— publius305 (@TripsCaneMAGA) December 7, 2024

I don't have an issue with Miami being out. Miami should have run the table with that soft schedule. I could even excuse a loss to Syracuse or Georgia Tech but not both coupled with a missed call that cost Cal the game against Miami.

The real issue here is SMU. The CFP set the table for leaving the Mustangs out if Clemson won. You know what? If Clemson had won in a blowout and not on a last-second 57-yard field goal, yeah, leave them out. SMU proved that they belong in the playoffs.

We can argue about the strength of Clemson all you want. We already know that the committee is going to view Clemson's two losses to SEC teams as a knock on the ACC and justify leaving SMU out. Why? SMU doesn't make money. Alabama makes money.

This would obliterate conference championships if they leave SMU out. The Mustangs would have been comfortably in the eighth spot if they weren't forced to play this game for money. Are you telling me they should fall three spots for losing to the 17th-ranked team? That's a bigger bunch of crap than the committee.

Big 12 (16): 

The committee got a favor with Arizona State blowing out Iowa State. The Cyclones had a weak schedule and got blown off the field.

Funniest stat of the day pic.twitter.com/DuOBrJP4OH

— Big 12 Champions Barstool ASU (@tempebarstool) December 8, 2024

Big Ten (18):

Penn State stood toe-to-toe with the only undefeated team in the country. They're in. Same with Ohio State, but the loss to Michigan should hurt them more than it has in the CFP rankings.

The only real question here is Indiana. Their schedule is the worst of all playoff contenders (yes, even Army). The Hoosiers were ranked ninth on Tuesday. That likely means they are in, but after the goings-on last night. I would put someone in over them. We'll get to that.

SEC: 

Tennessee got a favor by having one less game of wear and tear, yet they are comfortably in the playoff. Not a bad gig if you can get it. Texas had a soft schedule, but they took Georgia to overtime before losing to the Bulldogs again. Texas belongs and they proved it.

I hear all of this talk about Alabama, but losing to two 6-6 teams is an unforgivable sin in college football and should keep them out of the playoffs. There were no extenuating circumstances. The Tide just didn't show up. The Vanderbilt loss...I understand. Losing to the worst Oklahoma team in the last decade by 21 points. Unforgivable.

It's comical that we even have to mention this, but that's what a 12-team playoff leads to. If a three-loss team must get in, it should be South Carolina. The Gamecocks won six straight in what the committee considers the best conference in the land. Three wins were against ranked teams. One was against the ACC Champion on the road.

If you want a more comprehensive explanation, see below. A big part of this playoff expansion was to have teams that played well down the stretch get a chance. Arizona would have been in last year. South Carolina SHOULD be in this year.

Why South Carolina Deserves A Spot In The College Football Playoff Over Alabama ??? (written by @jswise7)

This is elite level thought by my guy Joe that needs to be seen by Gamecock Nation and the College Football Playoff Committee

Let’s begin the thread:

1. Criteria pic.twitter.com/Qbh2IOQCFB

— J.P. Hovey (@jhovey34) December 2, 2024

As for Mississippi...get out of here, Lane. Losing to Kentucky -- which was Kentucky's only SEC win -- is an automatic disqualification. I have no pity for bubble teams. All of them have flaws and should have taken their "win or else" scenarios more seriously. The only exception is SMU. Brutal. The Ponies were comfortably in, according to Tuesday's rankings.

Those pesky teams that won't join a conference:

Notre Dame's loss was the worst of any playoff team, but it was also Notre Dame's only loss, and they beat two ranked teams. The committee says they're in.

College Football Playoff as of December 8, 2024

Playoff committee watching Conference Championship Saturday

No beers. No wings. No chip dip

Can’t trust them pic.twitter.com/v5Rtm5Ejsv

— Nick Perkins (@NickyPerkss) December 7, 2024

These are my picks, the way they should be, not what I think the committee will do. We'll cover that later.

1. Oregon: They understood the assignment and won all of their games.
2. Georgia: SEC Champs. Don't have a bad loss. Beat Texas twice. Once with a backup quarterback.
3. Arizona State: Left no doubt against Iowa State.
4. Clemson: Three losses aren't a deal-breaker if you get the AQ spot.
5. Texas: Two losses to the No. 2 team should still get the Longhorns a playoff game at DKR.
6. Penn State: Both losses to top-8 teams.
7. Notre Dame: The Irish had the most wins against bowl-eligible teams this year.
8. Ohio State: I hear you, Tennessee fans, but the loss in Fayetteville is worse than a loss at The Big House in a rivalry game.
9. Tennessee: The loss in Fayetteville. Woof.
10. Boise State: UNLV being ranked for the second meeting is a blessing. It allows Boise to climb past Indiana.
11. SMU: Tough loss to Clemson shouldn't knock them out.
12. South Carolina: I've made my case, and it's a damn good one. Ask any coach which team they don't want to face right now, and I would bet the real USC is in the top three.

I know, I know...where's Indiana? I love Indiana. I was one of the few who had them in the "others receiving votes" in the preseason because of their transfer portal hauls. Curt Cignetti is the right guy, and this team has heart. A strength of schedule ranking in the triple digits is unfathomable.

If the Hoosiers had beaten the only ranked team they faced, they would be in. SMU is in over them because the SOS is better, and I'm not going to punish SMU for their conference by making them play an extra game.

These super-huge conferences are an issue. They will be the death of the 12-team playoff in a matter of three years or less. If the SEC and Big Ten have their way, it will be the death of college football in the same span. They don't want the other conferences to have a shot. They gobble up any teams that might take away from their accomplishments (Oregon, Washington, Texas, Oklahoma).

I'm going to draw heat for South Carolina, but I shouldn't. Go watch this team at any point in the last half of the season. The loss to LSU is mired in controversy, most of it warranted. I wonder if the SEC wishes it could go back in time and take away from helping an LSU team that they thought was elite in favor of upstart South Carolina.

If you thought whittling the field down to four was tough (it wasn't ... 2023 was the only year of the four-team playoff where it could have been necessary), wait until you see the arguments over 12! I don't know about you, but I would rather be arguing over which one-loss team deserves a shot over arguing about which three-loss team deserves a shot.

If you're wondering what the older (and better) playoff system would look like now, it would feature two Big Ten and two SEC teams. This was by design. The SEC ruined the Big 12 for this reason. The Big Ten ruined the Pac-12 for the same reason.

If we had the old conferences, it would be one representative from the Big Ten (Penn State), Pac-12 (Oregon), Big 12 (Texas), and SEC (Georgia). Is that so hard?

What Will the CFP Do?

This committee has been around for a while and through a few different incarnations. It's horrible for the sport to have a room full of people who mostly have ties to the Big Ten (18) and the SEC heading it up. It's a huge conflict of interest and wouldn't be tolerated in any decently-run corporation.

The committee has repeatedly stated that a loss in a conference championship is not a deal-breaker and backed it up once (2003 Oklahoma). They have also used it to keep teams out (2001 Colorado).

The little blurb by Warde Manuel about teams not in action not being able to move is troubling and a new development. He is essentially saying that Clemson winning the ACC means nothing for South Carolina. That's an awful take that would get most removed from such a "prestigious" committee.

There is a precedent for inactive teams getting in. It happened with Nebraska in 2001. Conference Champions have been repeatedly left out thanks to five major conferences and a four-team playoff. This is my best guess at what the CFP rankings will look like.

1. Oregon
2. Georgia. They do love some SEC.
3. Arizona State. Ranked above Clemson to begin the day
4. Boise State. The committee has love for the Broncos thanks to playing Oregon tough.
5. Notre Dame. They've held the door open for the Irish for years. Notre Dame doesn't always walk through it, but this year they did.
6. Penn State. PSU may be at five. It doesn't matter for the first round.
7. Texas. I'm a firm believer that Notre Dame should be below both Texas and Penn State, but it won't happen.
8. Ohio State. Ranked above Tennessee on Tuesday.
9. Tennessee. Don't lose in Fayetteville!
10. Indiana. A painfully weak schedule is a problem that will linger for years to come if the Hoosiers get in. It's a dangerous precedent to set.
11. Clemson. This is the three-loss team the committee didn't want to let in.
12. Alabama. This would destroy any credibility this committee has left, but they have already proven that they don't care.

Leaving SMU out will finish what was started last year and break off the other conferences from the SEC/Big Ten (18). It would prove beyond a doubt that the committee does not see the ACC and Big 12 (16) as equal to the other two conferences.

To be clear, this is exactly what the big two conferences want. They are already talking about expansion again, further weakening the other conferences. The NCAA has let this go on unchecked for far too long. They have no way to rein this back in.

I hope I'm wrong. SMU deserves to be in the playoffs. Losing on a last-second field goal when Alabama and Indiana didn't even play is so very wrong.

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