X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Giancarlo Stanton Rankings Debate: Comparing RotoBaller's Rankers

We continue our series of articles debating the overall ranking of some of the most fantasy-relevant players of the 2018 baseball season with a player who set the world on fire in 2017. New York Yankees outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is an early pick sure to garner a lot of attention after his N.L. MVP season with Miami and offseason trade to the Big Apple.

RotoBaller's expert writers have come up with our consensus rankings for mixed leagues, but that doesn't mean we agreed on everything. In this space, we'll hear from rankers with the biggest differences of opinion on a well-known player and have them defend their position against each other.

We press on with one of 2017's top storylines, New York Yankees OF stud Giancarlo Stanton. Nick Mariano will defend his position that Stanton is a top-5 pick, while Kyle Bishop holds that he doesn't belong in the top 20. Let's get ready to rumble!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2018 Draft Rankings Debate - Giancarlo Stanton

Rank Tier Player Position Kyle Nick Pierre Jeff Harris Bill
13 2 Giancarlo Stanton OF 23 5 16 13 11 6

 

Nick Mariano's Ranking: #5 overall

So, a guy who just turned 28 and is practically a meme for homers, leads the Major Leagues with 59 homers, wins the National League MVP, and then gets traded to one of the most power-friendly ballparks and there’s talk of pushing him outside of the top 20? That’s right, Giancarlo Stanton, the likely three-hole hitter in one of baseball’s most powerful lineups and sandbox-iest stadiums is the victim of disrespect!

Healthy as a Horse

As we said, Stanton is just 28 years old and he just proved that he can play a full season. His 692 plate appearances led to that dastardly 1.007 OPS and downright hilarious .350 ISO, but the ex-Miami masher has been unfairly painted as fragile and that now leads to a draft-day discount for many of you.

I’ll grant the early knee, abdomen, shoulder, thigh and ankle injuries from 2012-13 as eyebrow-raising, but the HBP in ‘14 was obviously freakish and the hamate bone in ‘15 has no bearing on the future. Once it breaks, it’s removed (to my knowledge). His groin strain in ‘16 was concerning, but a healthy ‘17 is enough for me to greenlight him. I have to assume this is what really separates him from Nolan Arenado, a top-10 player that also doesn’t steal.

Non-Violent Power

Stanton has made a name for himself by working for NASA in the Extraterrestrial Contact Division alongside being a baseball player, as sending those poor balls beyond orbit came easy thanks to a 99.7 MPH average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives. That mark was second only to now-teammate Aaron Judge (99.9 MPH) on guys with at least 50 batted-ball events. And Stanton kept this up while lowering his strikeout rate.

In an era where the homers fly and the K’s don’t matter (as much), Big G went from a 29.8% K rate to 23.6%. His swinging-strike rate went from 15.2% down to 12.5%. We don’t like changes without causation, but Stanton closing his batting stance looks to check that box. His 27.4% O-Swing rate was the lowest of his career, so he’s not letting pitchers off easy either.

But Muh Bags!

Stanton stole 13 bases in 2014 but has only tallied a combined six swipes in his three seasons since and there’s no reason to expect those to return. Some folks just won’t rank a guy as high if he can’t provide returns in one-of-five categories, which is a fair stance in most cases. Folks may also worry about his batting average, but his .288 BABIP last season was more than reasonable and if he goes 125-50-125-0-.270 then he’ll be worth the return. According to Fangraphs’ auction calculator, he was the second-most valuable bat last year behind Charlie Blackmon. Dude don’t need any wheels.

Conclusion

Giancarlo Stanton is capable of being a top-five fantasy player in 2018 thanks to being in an offense that should toward the top of the runs scored leaderboard, moving his home park from one that curtailed right-handed homers by 22% compared to a 32% boost from Yankee Stadium (per Baseball Monster) and riding his smooth swing to yet another beastly performance. The health gamble is not as risky as the general perception seems to be, and the upside demands a high pick.

 

Kyle Bishop's Ranking: #23 overall

Y’all got some short memories.

Stanton’s 2017 performance is unimpeachable. He became one of just six players in MLB history to hit at least 59 home runs and put up the gaudy run production you’d expect from that number. Nick did a fine job singing the man’s praises above. I can’t argue with any of these facts, because I am not a crazy person.

But one transcendent season doesn’t make me forget how often Stanton has failed to deliver for fantasy owners. I’m currently doing some preliminary work with the last several seasons’ worth of ADP data - expect some articles built around this data during spring training - and one of the things I’m looking to learn more about is whether particular players (or player types) are typically over- or undervalued in drafts. I used Jeff Zimmerman’s ADP to auction values formula to determine the expected value of Stanton’s ADP and the FanGraphs auction calculator to derive end of season value. Here’s how an investment in Stanton performed over the past five seasons:

Season ADP Expected Value Actual Value ROI
2013 14.5 $29.27 $6.40 ($22.87)
2014 28.8 $23.03 $40.70 $17.67
2015 3.7 $41.70 $6.70 ($35.00)
2016 8.2 $34.46 $5.10 ($29.36)
2017 38.3 $21.00 $56.20 $35.20
Average 18.7 $29.89 $23.02 ($6.87)


Even granting that a couple of the health maladies in Stanton’s history were fluky, there are also a lot of soft tissue injuries sprinkled in there. Before last year, he’d played in more than 130 games just twice in seven seasons. We shouldn’t just hand-wave that away. But let’s say for the sake of argument that, like Nick, you’re convinced he can avoid the disabled list and play 150 games again in 2018. Going back to 2003, there have been just seven 50 HR seasons, excluding Stanton and Aaron Judge last year. The average total for those players declined from 53 to 37 the following season. In a neat bit of coincidence, 37 homers was Stanton’s career high before 2017. Point being, it’s extremely difficult to hit 50 home runs. Most of the game’s best hitters haven’t done it; only a few have managed to do it even once.

It’s tempting to mentally assign Stanton a boost in homers or run production simply because he’s moving to Yankee Stadium and plying his trade in a great lineup. But the park likely won’t be the sort of boon one might expect, and he already led the league in R+RBI batting in a Marlins lineup whose best hitters were comparable to the Yankees’ group. There really isn’t room for improvement here.

My ranking, low as it is in comparison to both my colleague’s and the general consensus (ADP: 9), is still inside the second round at a time when MLB has more elite talent than ever before and a run environment that is what one may be so bold as to call “friendly.” But in the first round, I want as little risk as possible, and Stanton doesn’t fit the bill.

 

More 2018 MLB Ranking Debate Articles




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Alex Bregman

Expected to Return on Friday
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Won't Suit Up for Midsummer Classic
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Expected to Work Out Long-Term Extension
Bernhard Raimann

a Candidate for an Extension This Summer
C.J. Stroud

Could Sign Multi-Year Deal Before 2026 Season
Kyle Juszczyk

Says Christian McCaffrey Looks Healthy, Explosive
Kyren Williams

Showing Improved Explosiveness
Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF