2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Base (1B - January Edition)

This is RotoBaller's third Fantasy Baseball season, and we are bringing you a special treat this year for our Fantasy Baseball rankings.  We've asked nine of our esteemed writers to submit their own rankings, and we have calculated composite fantasy baseball rankings for all positions.  We are understand that rankings from 1 person represent just 1 opinion.  

The goal of these composite fantasy baseball rankings is to give you a good sense of how we as a site view these players, rather than just a single individual's opinion.  We will be releasing all the positional rankings over the next week, before updating in February and releasing finalized preseason rankings in March.  Enjoy!

Editor's Note: Check out all of RotoBaller's in-depth 2015 fantasy baseball rankings articles & tiered rankings, dynasty/keeper ranks & rankings analysis to prepare for your drafts. Let's win some leagues!
 

2015 Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings

We are kicking things off with the big thumpers, the home run hitters, the gold standards for power in fantasy baseball leagues-- the first basemen.  There is no shortage of big-time mashers in this group.  Before we get into the rankings themselves, our writers have put together some opinion and analysis to explain why they like or dislike certain guys differently from the composite RotoBaller consensus.

Brad Johnson (Lead MLB Editor)

Jeff Kahntroff (MLB Writer)

Number one: Miggy will be my number one if he is projected to be healthy by opening day.  Until then, it’s Encarnacion, who produced extraordinary numbers in 2014, despite offseason wrist surgery and a late-season quad injury.  In May and June, E5 hit 23 home runs, with 42 runs and 50 RBI in 56 games.  In 2012-13, he averaged .276 with 39 HR, 107 RBI and 92 runs in 147 games.  And the lineup arguably will be better this year.  Abreu rounds out my top tier. After slugging 29 homers in the first half, teams walked him at almost twice the rate in the second half, leading to only seven home runs.  With a stronger 2015 lineup on the south side, he could receive more pitches to hit and slug more home runs.  I am fine with any of these three as the first  guy off the board.

Justin Morneau: finally over his concussion issues, Morneau is a former MVP who posted an .860 OPS last year and could get a significant lineup boost if the combination of Car-Go (70), Tulo (91), Dickerson (131), and Arenado (111) play more than their 403 combined 2014 games.  Morneau could easily slash .290/25/85/110, with a high floor.

Harris Yudin (MLB Writer and Editor)

The big names remain at the top of the list, but going into your drafts, you should be aware of the returns of Prince Fielder and Joey Votto. I fully expect both players to be healthy and return to top form. 2015 is also the year when we could see guys like Brandon Belt and Eric Hosmer finally break out into the players we have long been expecting them to become. When looking for a 1B2 or a CI, be careful with Steve Pearce. I'm just not sold on his emergence as a serious power threat. At just 5'11", there's a reason he never hit more than four home runs in a season before age 31. Maybe he can still hit 15-20 home runs, but at a position as deep as first base, there are a bunch of more reliable options.

Kyle Bishop (MLB Writer and Editor)

Prince Fielder was a huge disappointment last season, managing only three homers in 42 games before being shut down for the year with a serious neck injury. Some owners will look at his history of production and durability, as well as his favorable home park, and see a classic buy-low opportunity. Not me. His numbers were down across the board even in 2013. You'd have to go back to his rookie year to find a line worse than the .279/.362/.457 he managed. While Fielder missed a mere 13 games in his first eight full seasons, he's on the wrong side of 30 with a body type that is notorious for aging poorly and quickly. And now he's trying to come back from a surgery that is virtually unprecedented in baseball history. Steamer's projection for him is .282/.380/.483 with 24 homers. I don't see him coming anywhere close to that, and I'd be surprised if he comes as cheaply as he should, given his name value.

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Justin Berglund (MLB Writer)

Kyle Braver (MLB Writer)

Despite a top-10 consensus ranking, Victor Martinez found himself only 11th on my board for one chief reason: power. While he may have hit 32 home runs last year, Martinez only averaged 14 per year in the five seasons before that (17 per year, if you choose to ignore the season he missed to injury in 2012). In fact, before 2014 he had never hit more than 25 in a single season, and only reached that mark in 2007, back in the day when the phrase "Ryan Howard, MVP candidate" didn't sound quite so ludicrous.  Martinez will be 36 years old next season, and while he may be a lock for a .300+ batting average and 100 RBI, I find it hard to take a first baseman in the first round who likely won't hit more than 20 home runs over the course of the season.

Alex Roberts (RotoBaller Co-Founder)

Chris Carter at #10 in my first base rankings stands out like a sore thumb. I'm either going to look like a genius or an absolute idiot, and I can't guarantee that I won't be dropping Carter down my ranks in February and March (sheepish grin). So why am I in love with Chris Carter in 2015? Simple. His power is monstrous. Need more convincing? His ISO (a great measure of raw power) was fifth in the MLB last year at .264.  Go five players further down the list and you get VMart at .230, five more down and you'll find Khris Davis at .214. So yes, a .264 ISO constitutes massive, massive power, which translated to 37 HR in just 507 ABs.   If he can make it to the plate 550 times this year, we should be looking at 40 HR.

While Carter was more aggressive at the plate in 2014 compared to 2013, he was able to maintain his contact rate and even decrease his K% from 36% to 31.8%. This means he was putting a lot more balls in play in 2014, and those balls were big balls. He hit fly balls an insane 51% of the time (an increase from his 2013 rate of 47%), and they left the park at a 22% rate (on par with his career average).  If he can maintain the improved K-rate, his BA ceiling is closer to .260 with a little BABIP luck. My expectation is a .240 average, with a floor of .220.  That's the part I tolerate. What has me excited is that Carter can pretty easily reach 40 HR and 95 RBI. A line of .240-40-95-85 reminds me of Adam Dunn in his prime, a guy who was a top-60 pick for years.  With that line, I think Carter will outproduce guys like Frazier, Ortiz, Moss, Posey and Votto, players my peers have ranked well ahead of Carter. How far are you going to reach for those 40 HR?

Josh Leonard (MLB Writer)

I really love the aggregate ranking results RotoBaller provides. Nine writers, all from different states, all rooting for different teams, creates a somewhat crazy but trustworthy system.

Dig in to the 1B rankings and you'll see some wacky stuff, like when @JeffK thinks Edwin Encarnacion would be a good #1. I find that ludicrous-- in my humble opinion, anyone who doesn’t take Miggy as the top 1B is missing out, and I hope they'll join my league so I can take their money. The draft goes Trout then Miggy, and the rest is up for debate.

I was intrigued when I saw @AlexR rank Chris Carter at #10. I think I might have underrated him at #21. If he puts up close 37 HR again, he would be a steal. But I like my boy Chris Davis at #10 better. Davis is going to be a beast again in 2015. He is back on Adderall and this time it’s with a prescription, meaning he got his focus back. I wouldn't be surprised if he hits 164 HR.

I have no idea why I love rankings so much but I could seriously rank things all day. Top three IPAs?

3.Lagunitas IPA
2.Dogfish head 75 min IPA
1.Heady Topper
You can't disagree with any of this.

2015 RotoBaller Fantasy Baseball First Base (1B) Rankings