X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2014 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: The Houston Astros Offense & Projections

 

2014 Houston Astros - Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep

rotoballer-fantasy-baseball-advice-houston-astros-logo

Although the offseason is still fairly young, the Astros starting lineup is already beginning to take shape. Short of some sort of blockbuster trade or surprise free-agent signing, we already have a pretty good idea of who will be taking the field for the Astros on Opening Day. While the roster lacks star talent, fantasy owners will want to pay attention to the Astros, because even without top-30 talent they have several very useful players for fantasy purposes, many of them at key positions where finding talent in the later rounds of the draft is often difficult.

One note to keep in mind is that some of the Astros players I consider fantasy relevant tend to be more useful in rotisserie leagues than in head-to-head points leagues. This is largely because these players derive a disproportionate amount of their value from one or two specific categories (home runs or stolen bases) and display serious flaws or question marks in the rest (batting average, RBI and runs scored). Because of the nature of their skillsets, their production tends to come in scattered bursts throughout the course of the season. Owners looking for consistent weekly production will have to adjust their valuations of these particular Astros players accordingly. In any case, in the interest of learning more about who might contribute from the current Houston lineup, let's take a look position-by-position at the probable starters for the 2014 Houston Astros.

 

Hitters Preview & Projections - 2014 Houston Astros

1B: Brett Wallace/Jesus Guzman/(Jonathan Singleton?)

1B is obviously one of the weaker positions in the Astros lineup for fantasy purposes. You can expect to see some sort of platoon between Wallace and Guzman in the early part of the season, and with their at-bats thus limited, these two flawed players lose a lot of their value in fantasy leagues. The upshot on both players is that they both have some power. Guzman clubbed nine home runs in only 126 games, and Wallace for his part exceeded this number with even less playing time, hitting 13 home runs in 79 games. The downside is that beyond power , there's very little else to like with these two. Both are coming off seasons in which they hit around .220 an got on base at below a .300 clip. Each could make for an interesting replacement option or matchup play should you need to plug a hole at first in a deeper league, but neither should be the first name you turn to. Needless to say, neither should be drafted except in the deepest of leagues (think 14-team, AL-only leagues), and even then there are probably better options out there.

As the season progresses, one player to keep an eye on at 1B is Jonathan Singleton. After a disappointing 2013, he'll almost certainly begin the season at AAA, but a strong performance could see him called up in the second half. I'll discuss him in greater detail in a later article on top Astros prospects.

Recommendation: Don't draft

 

2B: Jose Altuve

2013: .283/.316/.363, 5 HR, 64 R, 52 RBI, 35 SB

Steamer 2014 Projections: .288/.331/.400, 9 HR, 85 R, 56 RBI, 31 SB

Jose Altuve Houston Astros MLB News

After signing a long-term extension last year, there's little doubt that Jose Altuve will be the Astros Opening Day 2B. As such, he's definitely a useful fantasy piece for owners who choose to wait on drafting a 2B. He'll give you an above-average batting average with his major contributions coming in stolen bases and runs scored. He doesn't have much power, but power isn't why you'd draft Altuve. He's not a flashy pick, but he's a healthy, dependable 2B and there's a lot of value to that. I like him as a ninth- or tenth-round pick myself, and I certainly see him cracking the top ten at the position for the 2014 season.

Recommendation: Round 9-10, all formats

 

3B: Matt Dominguez

2013: .241/.286/.403, 21 HR, 56 R, 77 RBI, 0 SB

Steamer 2014 Projections: .255/.306/.421, 18 HR, 60 R, 65 RBI, 1 SB

In terms of probable fantasy production, Matt Dominguez profiles as similarly to what one could expect to see out of the Wallace/Guzman platoon at 1B, albeit with a better batting average, which in this case still just isn't good enough for draft day. There's nothing wrong with a league-average batting average, but Dominguez just doesn't provide enough in the rest of the major fantasy categories to be worth drafting in standard leagues. He'll have some value as a late-round draft pick in 14+-team mixed leagues and AL-only formats, because he does have some power and will both produce and score runs, but his very limited upside should curtail his use in standard leagues to merely a free-agent injury replacement.

Recommendation: Late-round pick in 14-team mixed leagues and deeper

 

SS: Jonathan Villar

2013: .243/.321/.319, 1 HR, 26 R, 8 RBI, 18 SB (note: in only 58 games)

Steamer 2014 Projections: .243/.303/.370, 54R, 49 RBI, 30 SB

In many ways, Villar is a difficult player to value, because his fantasy production is so dramatically lopsided toward the speed metrics. While he doesn't give you much of anything else, I'd say that the Steamer projection is probably the floor for Villar's stolen base totals if he is given a full season worth of at-bats in 2014. As a marginal player on a rebuilding team-- a team which happens to have a shortstop as one of its top prospects in Carlos Correa-- I think Villar will be treating this next year as a season-long audition for a starting job in the majors. He'll be looking to contribute in any way possible, and he knows that his biggest asset is his legs. I think he'll be looking to show off that speed, and given the possible trade chip he'd make to a team hunting for a shortstop at the deadline, I'm inclined to believe the Astros will let him run. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him steal 40 bases if he is given a full season of plate appearances and as such, even with his less-than-stellar numbers in other areas, I like him as a pick in the last couple of draft rounds. Stolen bases have been harder to come by in recent years, and a talent like Villar's in this regard shouldn't be ignored, especially since it comes at a premium and shallow position like shortstop.

Recommendation: Very late-round pick in rotisserie formats

 

C: Jason Castro

2013: .276/.350/.48518 HR, 63 R, 56 RBI, 2 SB

Steamer Projection: .250/.332/.413, 17 HR 68 R, 69 RBI, 3 SB

Castro was the Astros' breakout player of the year in 2013, showing he had the potential to be an above-average power hitter at what is probably the most offensively-starved position in the majors. The main question with Castro is whether he can continue to produce enough solid contact to make up for his tendency to strike out in a quarter of his at-bats. If he can, he's probably the ninth- or tenth-best fantasy catcher in the majors, but there's a lot of risk to Castro, and it's not just batting average regression. He's had knee problems his whole career, and as a catcher that's something that's not going to get any better with time. You should be happy getting 120-130 games out of Castro, so making him your starter will require checking the waiver wire for backups some weeks. That said, considering that you'll be able to get him as late as rounds 19-21 in a standard-league draft, he's not a bad option to target if you miss out on a top catcher like Posey or Molina. There aren't a lot of catchers in the majors with 20-HR potential, after all.

Recommendation: Round 19-21, all formats

 

DH: Chris Carter

2013: .223/.320/.451, 29 HR, 64 R, 82 RBI, 2 SB

Steamer 2014 Projection: .235/.328/.464, 29 HR, 73 R, 83 RBI, 2 SB

The first number that jumps of the page when looking at Chris Carter is the 29-HR power. Ever since his days as an A's prospect, Carter has shown he has monster power, and honestly this is a guy that has the potential in him to hit 40+ home runs. The biggest question about Carter is whether he can make enough contact to tap into that potential. It's no secret that Chris Carter strikes out a lot, recording a K in a whopping 36.2% of his plate appearances in 2013. That strikeout rate can't help but lead to the kind of batting average that makes fantasy owners away slink away in fear (although he walks enough that OBP owners should see a lot more to like in him). There are going to be a lot of drafts out there in which Chris Carter strays on the board. I think there is something very wrong with that. As a last-round pick you can stash on your bench, I think you could do a lot worse than Carter. Maybe he never puts everything together, but at 27 years old-- an age in which players typically hit their primes-- Carter practically oozes upside. His potential is a 4-HR, 850R, 100-RBI season, which is about what Jose Bautista owners are hoping for when they take him in fourth or fifth round. I know that I'll own Carter in almost every league I play in, and I recommend that you do the same.

Recommendation: Very late-round pick; I would consider him a sleeper pick in all formats, but would emphasize owning in roto leagues.

 

LF: Robbie Grossman

2013: .268/.332/.370, 4 HR, 29 R, 21 RBI, 6 SB

Steamer 2014 Projection: .247/.328/.359, 6 HR, 44 R, 38 RBI, 12 SB

Robbie Grossman has bit of speed, some solid on-base skills to make up for a below-average batting average, and very little else to offer to fantasy owners. He's an injury replacement in deep leagues, but unless you're a fan of 16-team AL-only leagues, I can't imagine a scenario in which you'd want to draft him. Everyone needs outfielders, but if you want to win your league you should look elsewhere for yours.

Recommendation: Don't draft

 

RF: L.J Hoes

2013: .282/.332/.365, 1 HR, 24 R, 10 RBI, 7 SB

Steamer 2014 Projection: .270/.340/.374, 6 HR, 58 R, 39 RBI, 13 SB

If that Steamer projection reminds you of Robbie Grossman, congrats! L.J Hoes is essentially Robbie Grossman with a slightly above-average batting average. That might make him more useful as a short term injury replacement in deep leagues, but just as with Grossman, I want no part of him on draft day. You shouldn't either.

Recommendation: Don't draft

 

CF: Dexter Fowler

2013: .263/.369/.407, 12 HR, 71 R, 42 RBI, 19 SB

Steamer 2014 Projection (note: compiled BEFORE his trade to Houston): .270/.368/.435 with 12 HR, 88 R, 51 RBI, 18 SB

I analyzed Fowler's situation in fairly great detail in my post regarding the Astros' Offseason Trades and Signings, but just in summary, I'm not as afraid as most people are of how Fowler's performance will hold up now that he's no longer playing half his games at Coors Field. I see Fowler going forward as something around a .260 hitter with 10-HR and 20-SB potential. He's still a strong candidate for 60-70 R as he'll be locked-in as the Astros leadoff man for all of 2014, and a floor of 30-35 RBI seems reasonable to expect to go along with that. Altogether it's a step down from his potential production were he still in Colorado, but he's still a very useful, young fourth or fifth outfielder who has a lot of upside. Considering that he won't be going until the 17th or 18th rounds in most drafts and that you could even nab him as late as the 20th in many cases, I'm rather high on Fowler this year. I see him as a great buy-low candidate to add some serious depth to a contending team.

Recommendation: 17th-18th round pick in all formats

 

Note: I'll discuss him at greater length when I go over the Astros top prospects in a later article, but a big wildcard in the Astros outfield is top prospect George Springer. Already knocking on the door to the major leagues after destroying the minor leagues in 2013, he could easily push Hoes or Grossman to the side with a strong spring training performance. Wil Myers' rookie season is a good comparison for what Springer is capable of and even more considering what some minor league scouts say about him. His draft status is in limbo right now due to uncertainty over where he will start the year, but his is one name fantasy owners will want to pay attention to this spring.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Alex Bregman

Expected to Return on Friday
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Won't Suit Up for Midsummer Classic
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Expected to Work Out Long-Term Extension
Bernhard Raimann

a Candidate for an Extension This Summer
C.J. Stroud

Could Sign Multi-Year Deal Before 2026 Season
Kyle Juszczyk

Says Christian McCaffrey Looks Healthy, Explosive
Kyren Williams

Showing Improved Explosiveness
Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF