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Mike Fanelli's overvalued or undervalued fantasy players for 2025 redraft leagues. His top sleeper and busts for the 2025 fantasy football season. Target or fade these 10 players.
Unfortunately, the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still a few months away. However, it’s never too early to prepare for the upcoming season, especially in leagues with big money pots and bragging rights on the line.
Several things go into building a league-winning fantasy football team. The most important factor in creating a league-winning team is finding undervalued fantasy assets and avoiding overvalued ones. Therefore, let’s look at 10 players who are overvalued and undervalued heading into 2025 fantasy football drafts.
The ADP used for this article is courtesy of Underdog Fantasy.
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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins – ADP 27.6 | WR15
Unfortunately, Hill was a fantasy bust in 2024. He finished as the WR21, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a lower average than Adam Thielen (11.6). His six receiving touchdowns matched his career low from his rookie season. Furthermore, Hill’s fantasy success was drastically tied to Tua Tagovailoa’s health.
The star wide receiver averaged six targets and 6.6 fantasy points per game in the seven contests when the star quarterback didn't play or left early. By comparison, Hill averaged 8.1 targets and 13.1 fantasy points per game in the 10 contests Tagovailoa finished. Yet, his 13.1 fantasy points per contest average would have only made him the WR15 on a points-per-game basis last year. He’s way overvalued as the WR15 in the rankings.
DJ Moore, Chicago Bears – ADP 40.2 | WR23
Moore has been one of the more underrated wide receivers in fantasy value. Last year, many were afraid to draft him after the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to their wide receiver corps in the offseason. Yet, the veteran finished the 2024 season as the WR16, averaging 11.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing on a dysfunctional offense.
Unfortunately, Moore has even more competition for targets this year. Chicago used their top two picks in the 2025 NFL Draft on Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III. More importantly, many believe the rookies could be Ben Johnson’s new Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown. While Moore should be the first Bears pass catcher drafted, the veteran belongs in the WR3 range.
The Bears draft is over. Here's their 2025 draft class.
1st - 10th: TE Colston Loveland
2nd - 39th: WR Luther Burden III
2nd - 56th: OT Ozzy Trapilo
2nd - 62nd: DT Shemar Turner
4th - 132nd: LB Ruben Hyppolite II
5th - 169th: CB Zah Frazier
6th - 195th: G Luke Newman
7th -…— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) April 26, 2025
Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers – ADP 44.3 | RB15
Fantasy players have high hopes for Hampton in dynasty leagues. The former North Carolina star is the near-consensus 1.02 pick in dynasty rookie drafts after the Chargers selected him with their first-round pick. While the rookie should be ranked as a top-10 dynasty running back, Hampton’s redraft value is significantly lower.
Los Angeles signed Najee Harris in free agency before the NFL Draft. Furthermore, they placed the rarely used unrestricted free agent tag on J.K. Dobbins, increasing the odds that he returns to the team this season. Therefore, Hampton could find himself in a three-way backfield, fighting for touches. While the rookie is my favorite Chargers running back, Hampton shouldn’t get drafted as a top-15 guy.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints – ADP 64.3 | WR35
The Saints were obliterated by injuries last year, especially at the wide receiver position. Olave finished the 2024 season as the WR93, averaging 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game after missing nine contests with multiple injuries. Furthermore, he got outscored by Rashid Shaheed despite playing in two more games (65.8 vs. 60.7).
More importantly, New Orleans might have the worst passing attack in the NFL this year. Derek Carr retired shortly after the NFL Draft, leaving the Saints with Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Haener at quarterback. Yet, the team seems determined to roll with their young core and not add a veteran passer. Unless Olave miraculously gets traded, the star wide receiver comes with too much risk at his current ADP.
Saints QB Derek Carr is retiring after 11 seasons. (via @rapsheet, @tompelissero, @mikegarafolo) pic.twitter.com/irJJ7PVV7V
— NFL (@NFL) May 10, 2025
Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins – ADP 96.4 | TE6
Smith had a breakout 2024 season, ending the year as the TE4, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, posting a higher average than Mark Andrews (9.5) and Travis Kelce (9.2). Furthermore, the veteran tight end led the team with 88 receptions and eight receiving touchdowns, setting career highs in both categories.
Fantasy players should avoid drafting Smith anywhere near his TE6 ADP. The veteran tight end will be on the wrong side of 30 when the 2025 season starts. More importantly, rarely do players have career years in their late 20s and maintain that level of success. Smith averaged 31.3 receptions and 2.9 receiving touchdowns per year in his career before last season.
Undervalued Fantasy Football Players
Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams – ADP 31.7 | WR19
Last year, Adams split time between two lackluster offenses, playing for the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets. Yet, the future Hall of Famer finished the season as the WR14, averaging 14.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a higher average than Brian Thomas Jr. (14.1) and Drake London (13.6).
Furthermore, Adams was the WR10 on a points-per-game basis despite Garrett Wilson ranking fourth in the NFL with 154 targets. Therefore, fantasy players shouldn’t worry about the veteran with Puka Nacua as the Rams’ No. 1 wide receiver. More importantly, Matthew Stafford has produced multiple WR1s in Sean McVay’s offense in the past. Therefore, Adams should be ranked closer to the WR12 than the WR20.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints – ADP 61.9 | RB20
The Saints will likely have the worst passing offense in the NFL this season after Carr retired. However, that’s good news for Kamara’s fantasy value. The veteran was the RB10 last year, averaging 16.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite missing the final three contests with a groin injury. Furthermore, he is capable of having massive spike weeks.
Kamara had 22 touches for 180 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in the Week 2 win over the Dallas Cowboys, scoring 43 fantasy points, the third-best performance by a running back in 2024. More importantly, he is a force in the passing game, leading all running backs in receptions per game last season (4.9). Kamara could see even more work in the passing game with an inexperienced quarterback room relying on their star running back.
THAT’S FOUR FOR ALVIN KAMARA 😤
📺: #NOvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/UouER56mcI— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers – ADP 73.7 | WR41
It has been an interesting offseason in San Francisco. The 49ers traded away Deebo Samuel Sr. and have had trade talks surrounding Brandon Aiyuk. While Jauan Jennings was the team’s most consistent wide receiver in 2024, Pearsall is the one fantasy players should target next season, despite a rocky rookie year.
Unfortunately, Pearsall missed the first six weeks recovering from a gunshot during an attempted robbery during the preseason. Yet, the former Florida star shone when getting the ball. He averaged 18.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in the three contests with six or more targets, scoring three receiving touchdowns. Pearsall should be a popular breakout candidate.
Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos – ADP 118.3 | WR58
Denver’s offense became fantasy-friendly late last season. Courtland Sutton was the only non-quarterback whom fantasy players could trust for most of the year. However, Mims started to shine over the final two months. He scored 12.3 or more half-point PPR fantasy points in four of the final seven regular-season games, including at least 18.4 in three outings.
Many believed the Broncos would have made a splashy addition at the wide receiver position this offseason. However, that didn’t happen because of how Mims ended last year. He made several big-time plays for Bo Nix and the offense over the final two weeks, averaging 6.5 receptions for 77 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and 22.9 fantasy points per game.
BO NIX ABSOLUTE CINEMA.
📺: #DENvsCIN on NFL Network
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/LpdaNr6sVi— NFL (@NFL) December 29, 2024
Jaydon Blue, Dallas Cowboys – ADP 130.1 | RB40
Despite being a fifth-round pick, Blue is among my favorite targets in dynasty rookie drafts. Furthermore, the former Texas star will be one of my highest-rostered rookie running backs in redraft leagues because of his cheap draft price and massive upside. He has a pathway to significant snaps as a rookie after getting picked by the Cowboys in the NFL Draft.
Dallas has an up-and-coming offensive line and two ineffective veteran running backs ahead of Blue on the depth chart. Last year, Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders ranked in the bottom 16 among 70 running backs with at least 55 rushing attempts in yards per attempt. Furthermore, both veterans averaged 2.51 or fewer rushing yards per attempt last season.
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