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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 3 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 3 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly series looking at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the Week 3 matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart once again in 2024, and now you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data since we're using the Week 1-2 metrics and matchup ratings might be skewed if a player struggled or succeeded, given the small sample. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
Favorable WR/CB Matchups Chart
Below, we'll see the most favorable WR/CB matchups for Week 3. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
Unfavorable WR/CB Matchups Chart
Since WR/CB matchups tend to be nuanced and complex, it may not be a perfect match for the real-time matchups during the game. The visual below shows the unfavorable Week 3 WR/CB matchups.
If a receiver struggles in the first two weeks, it will impact their Week 3 matchup scores after adjusting their respective score based on the weighted averages. A quick example involves Ja'Marr Chase since we're not sitting him and the Commanders defensive backs have been one to target and feast upon as we mentioned with Malik Nabers last week.
Favorable WR/CB Matchups to Target
Chris Godwin vs. Ja'Quan McMillian
Not that we need more confidence in Godwin's matchup against the Broncos slot cornerback, but he projects for one of the best matchups for Week 3. Since Godwin has been dominating, with the second-most fantasy points and yards per route run behind Rashid Shaheed, it's partly his offensive dominance impacting the matchup score.
The Broncos have been a solid group of defensive backs, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to slot receivers and eighth-fewest to receivers lined up out wide. That's especially evident in McMillian ranking 16th in yards per slot coverage snap out of 36 qualified cornerbacks.
Baker Mayfield's passing volume may be limited with the Buccaneers being a 6.5-point favorite, suggesting they may not need to lean on the passing game.
Godwin's high-end performance should continue into Week 3, though it might not be via week-winning upside and he'll need to produce efficiently if the Buccaneers play with a lead for most of the game.
Rashid Shaheed vs. Quinyon Mitchell
Like Godwin, Shaheed has been the most efficient receiver, ranking first in fantasy points and yards per route run. Mitchell was shredded by Jayden Reed and the Packers receivers in Week 1, with five receptions and 86 receiving yards allowed on nine targets.
However, Mitchell played better in Week 2, only allowing two receptions and 31 yards on three targets against Drake London and Darnell Mooney. That's possibly due to Kirk Cousins struggling until later in the game on "Monday Night Football."
Though regression will come for Shaheed and the Saints offense, he ranks first on the Saints in first-read target share at 26.7 percent, ahead of Alvin Kamara (23.3 percent) and Chris Olave (20 percent).
The Eagles defensive backs, including Mitchell, have been slightly below average, ranking 23rd in team coverage grades. That means we should target the Eagles, especially with the Saints rolling on offense.
Greg Dortch vs. Amik Robertson
This game between the Cardinals and Lions has the highest over/under for Week 3 of over 51 points. We'll want a piece of this game, though most fantasy managers will be starting the high-end options. So, let's highlight Dortch because we're confident with Marvin Harrison Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Trey McBride.
The Lions have allowed the most fantasy points to slot receivers through two weeks, though Dortch isn't on the level of Cooper Kupp and Godwin. With Harrison and McBride earning most of the targets, Dortch's targets fell from eight in Week 1 to two in Week 2.
It's the logical way for the game plan to flow through Harrison and McBride, but Kyler Murray leans on Dortch on third and fourth downs, with a 71.4 percent first-read target share. That's a significant difference compared to Harrison's zero percent and McBride at 14.3 percent on first reads, though it's a small sample.
Week 3 will show us whether high-end to near-elite receivers crushed the Lions in the slot or it's a matchup to exploit with a lower-end slot receiver like Dortch.
Allen Lazard vs. Marcus Jones
While we may not start Lazard unless we're desperate after injuries on Thursday, he might be a sneaky deep-league option against Patriots slot corner Marcus Jones. The Patriots have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to slot receivers while performing better against the outside with Jonathan Jones and Christian Gonzalez holding it down.
Lazard has a respectable 22 percent target share (No. 33) and a 25 percent first-read target rate (No. 34), but we know it's a bumpy ride for the Jets' passing options so far besides Breece Hall.
We'll need an efficient game from Lazard because the Jets use a balanced attack with the 14th-highest pass rate (59 percent) while averaging the second-fewest plays per game (53). Meanwhile, the Patriots prefer to bleed the clock with the fourth-slowest seconds per snap and the third-highest rush rate (58 percent).
In Week 1, Jones kept Andrei Iosivas and Trenton Irwin in check with two catches for 14 yards on three targets. However, in Week 2, Jaxon Smith-Njigba ate up Jones for five receptions (eight targets) and 48 yards. Expect something in between because Aaron Rodgers trusts Lazard, but there's a significant talent gap between him and Smith-Njigba.
Unfavorable WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Jaire Alexander
It's best to use a wait-and-see approach with Hopkins since he is dealing with an MCL sprain from the preseason. That's evident in his low usage, with a 34.2 percent route participation and 5 percent target share. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd have led the team in routes, running them over 80 percent of the time through two weeks.
This might be a game between the Titans and Packers of weakness and weakness because Green Bay allows the eighth-most fantasy points to outside receivers. However, the Titans receivers have been below average in fantasy points and yards per route run.
Hopkins and Boyd have been especially awful, with a 0.15 FP/RR for Boyd and a 0.20 FP/RR for Hopkins. Ridley's 0.38 FP/RR is above average but his "how in the world did he catch that" 40-yard touchdown against the Jets pumped up his numbers.
Oh my god Calvin Ridley 😱😱😱😱😱 pic.twitter.com/8NxCdmjEwA
— Anand Nanduri (@NanduriNFL) September 15, 2024
Ridley is startable in a relatively favorable matchup since he runs routes and earns targets. However, the lack of playing time, targets, and production gave Hopkins a negative matchup score in Week 3 against the Packers.
Christian Kirk vs. Cam Lewis
Many of the Jaguars receivers disappointed fantasy managers in Week 2, though they faced a more challenging Browns cornerback group and defense.
The Bills have been sneaky good, allowing the fewest fantasy points to receivers out wide and ranking 17th in the slot. Cam Lewis is the Bills' primary slot corner. He performed well against the Dolphins, allowing six receptions on seven targets for 45 receiving yards.
Lewis kept Dortch and McBride in check in Week 1, with five receptions for 33 yards on seven targets. Kirk ranks fourth on the team in first-read target share (17.9 percent) behind Evan Engram (25 percent), Gabe Davis (20.5 percent), and Brian Thomas Jr. (20.5 percent).
The Jaguars offense looks dysfunctional and ineffective, with Trevor Lawrence ranking 16th in adjusted yards per attempt (6.12) and 24th in completions over expected (CPOE) at -1.8 percent.
Since the Bills suppressed two quality offenses through two weeks in the Cardinals and Dolphins, it's best to bench Kirk in the Week 3 matchup with Lewis.
Xavier Worthy vs. A.J. Terrell
It's scary to consider downgrading Worthy, especially since there's a good chance the Chiefs increase their pass rate without Isiah Pacheco. While we chase the backup running back trio, it would be logical to lean on Patrick Mahomes more often.
Realistically, it's more of a neutral matchup than a downgrade for Worthy, mainly because the Falcons allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points out wide and the 11th-most to slot receivers, favoring Rashee Rice in Week 3.
Worthy has been running the second-most routes on the team at 67.7 percent behind Rice. Unfortunately, it's been a lowly 13.2 percent target share on a small sample of seven targets through two weeks. There's no reason for the Chiefs to continue averaging a 53 percent pass rate (No. 21) without a power back like Pacheco.
Terrell kept DeVonta Smith and Britain Covey to four receptions for 33 yards on five targets in Week 2. However, he gave up one big play to George Pickens in Week 1, allowing two receptions on two targets for 52 receiving yards.
If there's one cornerback who can somewhat keep up with Worthy's speed, it's Terrell with his 4.42 40-yard dash (85th percentile), but it only takes one or two plays for Worthy to make this neutral matchup look silly.
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