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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 10 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 10 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 10 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The visual below shows the Arizona to Detroit offenses.
The visual below shows Houston to New England.
Finally, the New Orleans Saints through the Washington Commanders can be seen below.
Week 10 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores
Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.
Week 10 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Malik Nabers vs. Mike Jackson
Over the past two weeks, Malik Nabers ranks eighth in expected fantasy points per game at 19.6, though he averages 14.5. That indicates Nabers has underperformed his expected fantasy numbers based on his usage. Nabers projects to face Mike Jackson in Week 10 WR/CB matchups. Jackson allows the 12th-most fantasy points per route and 10th-most yards per route run.
The Panthers run zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate, with a single high safety at the second-highest percentage behind the Steelers. They also use Cover 3 the most often at 47.4 percent. Guess who dominates Cover 3 defenses? That's Nabers, evidenced by his 35 percent targets per route and 3.04 yards per route run. He expectedly ranks first on the Giants, with Wan'Dale Robinson garnering a 27 percent target rate and 1.46 yards per route run.
When we filter by coverages with single-high safeties, which includes Cover 1 and 3 defense, Nabers ranks sixth in targets per route (39 percent) and 21st in yards per route run (2.82) among receivers and tight ends with ten routes run.
The visual below shows the targets per route run leaders against single-high safety coverages.
The receiving leaders sorted by targets per route run versus single-high safety looks with an air yards share of 40 percent or higher include Nabers, A.J. Brown, George Pickens, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson, and Tee Higgins. Nabers should smash in Week 10.
However, there's a minor concern around the Panthers allowing the lowest pass rate over expected in Weeks 6-9. That means the Panthers tend to be a run-funnel defense, allowing the fourth-most adjusted yards before contact since Week 6. There's a good chance Nabers has an efficient boom game as a top-five wide receiver in Week 10.
Quentin Johnston vs. Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
The Chargers have been passing at the third-highest rate (62 percent) behind the Cowboys (69 percent) and Bengals (64 percent) during neutral game scripts in Weeks 6-9. Since Week 6, Quentin Johnston had the third-most targets per game (4.5) and target share (16 percent) behind Ladd McConkey (7 targets, 23 percent) and Will Dissly (6.5 targets, 21 percent).
Johnston gives us some Rashod Bateman vibes where he lacks the volume, but his efficiency boosts the production. Among the top-20 receiving leaders in fantasy points over expected, Johnston is one of eight players with under 10 expected fantasy points. That's similar to Jameson Williams, Bateman, and Jordan Addison.
Since Week 6, the Titans allowed the sixth-highest pass rate over expected, meaning opposing offenses tend to pass more. That fits into how the Chargers have been operating their offense lately.
The Titans use zone coverage 71.8 percent of the time (No. 12), with the third-most Cover 4 (23.3 percent). Johnston has been more efficient versus zone coverage, averaging 2.67 yards per route, with an underwhelming 19 percent target rate. That's put him third behind Dissly and McConkey in target rate, but first among the trio in yards per route run versus zone.
Specifically, against Cover 4, Johnston hasn't been productive, with 0.80 yards per route and a 10 percent target rate. For context, this is a small sample of one target and 10 routes versus Cover 4, meaning the Chargers likely haven't faced Cover 4 quite often.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr., which Johnston projects to face, ranks 19th in yards per route run and 28th in fantasy points per route allowed. The Titans have been one of the tougher defenses against outside receivers, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points. As we mentioned earlier there's some risk in upgrading Johnston for Week 10, especially since the efficiency like Bateman has been boosting the production. Johnston remains a boom-or-bust option that's been making big plays.
Jordan Addison vs. Ronald Darby
The Jaguars allow the most PPR/G receivers out wide, where Jordan Addison plays over 60 percent of the time. Addison projects to face Ronald Darby, who gives up the eight-most fantasy points per route and sixth-highest yards per route run. There might be some passing volume concerns since the Jaguars rank 31st in pass rate over expected (-5.76) ahead of the Panthers since Week 6.
That suggests the Jaguars have been more susceptible to the running game and potentially a smash spot for Aaron Jones. The theme for the Jaguars' defense involves them playing tons of man coverage while being awful. Jacksonville plays man coverage at the second-highest rate (41 percent) and allows the seventh-highest fantasy points per drop back when using man defenses.
They specifically use Cover 1 defenses 34.1 percent of the time (No. 3), with the second-highest rate of Cover 2 Man (5.4 percent). Unsurprisingly, Justin Jefferson demolishes man coverage, with the third-highest yards per route run at 4.73 behind A.J. Brown and Jameson Williams. Sam Darnold tends to take deep shots at Jefferson against man coverage, evidenced by his 17.1 average target depth.
The visual below shows the Vikings' receivers against man coverage.
However, Addison hasn't been great against man coverage, producing 1.25 yards per route and an 18 percent target rate. Specifically, versus Cover 1, Addison garners a 20 percent target rate and 1.38 yards per route, with a massive 18.5 average target depth like Jefferson. Addison has been more efficient versus zone coverage, with 1.98 yards per route, and doesn't have an impact against the Jaguars' man-heavy defense.
If Addison connects on the deep shots against man coverage, his efficiency could regress with 0.33 expected fantasy points per route versus his actual 0.22 fantasy points per route run. Unfortunately, the Vikings pass catchers have been more spread out than expected besides Jefferson's 33 percent target share in Weeks 6-9 versus Addison's 14 percent, T.J. Hockenson at 12 percent, Jalen Nailor at 12 percent, and Aaron Jones at 11 percent.
It's a high-risk option to put faith in Addison given the volume, but the Jaguars pass defense has been beatable, so value him as a WR3 with touchdown upside.
Week 10 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Jalen Tolbert vs. Isaiah Rodgers
Dak Prescott expects to miss several weeks with a hamstring injury, so the Cowboys will likely turn to Cooper Rush. When Rush handled the quarterback duties in 2022 after Prescott missed time with a hand injury, Rush averaged 26 pass attempts, 170 passing yards, and 0.8 passing touchdowns per game in five games.
Below, we'll see the running back, receiver, and tight end opportunities during the five-game stretch in 2022 with Rush at quarterback.
CeeDee Lamb absorbed his elite target share at 36 percent, with Michael Gallup and Noah Brown garnering the second and third-highest receiving opportunities with Rush at quarterback. That's similar to Jalen Tolbert's season-long target share of 14 percent.
Unsurprisingly, when Tolbert's target share spiked to 20 percent or higher, he posted WR24 and WR12 performances in two games. Tolbert's opportunities could increase in Week 10 if Lamb misses with the shoulder injury.
That said, the Eagles have been bringing pressure at the fifth-highest rate (35.9 percent) in Weeks 6-9, a 9.7 percentage point increase from Weeks 1-5. Additionally, the Eagles have been more stout against the run, allowing the sixth-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt.
If the trend remains, there will be tons of pressure on the Cowboys' passing game to produce if they continue to struggle via the ground. That's evident in the Cowboys having the fourth-lowest adjusted yards before contact on offense ahead of the Titans, Jets, and Patriots.
We provide that context because Tolbert's WR/CB matchup should be downgraded, especially considering the Eagles' defensive improvements. Tolbert projects to face Isaiah Rodgers, who allows the lowest fantasy points per route and second-fewest yards per route run.
The Eagles played more man coverage (31.7 percent) and Cover 1 (27.6) in Weeks 6-9, leading to higher pressure rates. That's a slight increase from using man coverage 27.6 percent of the time and Cover 1 22.1 percent in Weeks 1-5.
It's not an overwhelmingly high rate, but the Eagles use Cover 1 at the 14th-highest rate and Cover 4 at the 11th-highest rate. Tolbert has been targeted on nine percent of his routes, with 1.05 yards per route against Cover 1. Meanwhile, Tolbert's numbers were about the same when facing Cover 4, evidenced by a 15 percent target rate and 0.92 yards per route run.
There's a chance for garbage time production, with the Eagles being seven-point favorites in Week 10. However, Tolbert projects as a fade in his WR/CB matchup unless Rush surprises us.
Keon Coleman vs. Samuel Womack III
It might be risky to downgrade the Bills offense. Buffalo's passing offense ranks second in adjusted yards per attempt and third in EPA per pass attempt. Samuel Womack III allows the 35th-fewest fantasy points per route and 24th-lowest yards per route out of 84 cornerbacks in Week 10.
As a team, they allow the 11th-lowest adjusted yards before contact, with the 11th-highest pass rate over expected in Weeks 6-9. Opposing offenses have increased their pass rate over expected by the second-most percentage point difference compared to Weeks 1-5.
That suggests the Bills could lean into higher pass rates than expected against a Colts' secondary that ranks in the top half in most metrics. The Colts run zone coverage at the third-highest rate (76.5 percent) behind the Buccaneers and Chargers, with the fourth-most percentage of Cover 3 (40.5 percent).
Coleman garners a 13 percent target rate with 1.66 yards per route run against zone coverage. However, Coleman has been better versus man coverage, evidenced by his 29 percent target rate and 2.97 yards per route run. Meanwhile, Coleman's target rate hasn't been great at 14 percent, though he produced efficiently at 2.55 yards per route run against Cover 3.
Khalil Shakir (33 percent target rate), Amari Cooper (26 percent), and Curtis Samuel (26 percent) have been Josh Allen's favorite targets versus Cover 3. However, Shakir has unsurprisingly been the most productive, with 2.78 yards per route versus Cover 3. The same trend applies to zone coverage, where Shakir feasts, evidenced by a 32 percent target rate and 3.09 yards per route run.
Shakir looks like the target for the Bills passing offense in Week 10 with Coleman being more of a downgraded option given his struggles against zone coverage.
Calvin Ridley vs. Cam Hart
The Chargers have been a legitimate defense, ranking fifth in rush defense and third in pass defense via EPA per play. Calvin Ridley projects to face Cam Hart, who allows the 12th-fewest fantasy points per route and the 15th-lowest yards per route run.
The Chargers run zone coverage at the second-highest rate (80.5 percent) while running the highest rate of Cover 4 (25.2 percent). Additionally, the Chargers use two high safety looks 62.3 percent of the time (No. 3), to limit big plays.
Ridley hasn't fared well against zone coverage, with a 20 percent target rate and 1.06 yards per route run. Against Cover 4, his numbers have been slightly better, evidenced by a 23 percent target rate and 1.80 yards per route. Ridley has been a man coverage beater, with a whopping 35 percent target rate and 2.85 yards per route run, as seen in the visual above.
The upside scenario for Ridley would be Chris Olave and Cedric Tillman, who faced the Chargers over the past two weeks. They averaged 12.5 targets, seven receptions, 91 receiving yards, and 19.1 PPR/G.
Ridley's expected fantasy points at 19.8 ranks third over the past three weeks behind Lamb (25.2) and Cooper Kupp (22.3) while underproducing by over five fantasy points (14.4). It's hard to fade Ridley's usage, but we should downgrade expectations as a WR2/3 instead of borderline WR1 based on usage. We downgraded Tillman in Week 9 against Hart, so that lingers in our mind.
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