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Justin Carter breaks down the NCAA Women's Tournament bracket providing his Women's March Madness picks and sleepers. Read his predictions for the 2025 Final Four.
The field is set for the NCAA Tournament, with the women's side getting started on Wednesday night with the First Four, then the tournament getting started in full on Friday morning. It's time to get those brackets ready.
Filling out a women's bracket is a different task than filling out a men's bracket because early upsets are less likely to happen. For example, on the men's side, we've seen a No. 12 seed win in the first round 53 times. On the women's side, that number drops to 26 times. The gap between the haves and have-nots is larger.
In this article, I'll be providing an in-depth overview of this year's field. I'll break down the favorites, look at some of the sleeper teams who could make an impact, and offer some thoughts on the bracket itself and who I'm picking to make the Final Four. Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts and guides on how to fill out your brackets. Good luck RotoBallers!
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The Women's NCAA Tournament Favorites
Since 2010, just 11 teams have made the Final Four without being a one or a two-seed, and only one of those 11 won the championship. In fact, in tournament history, only three teams -- LSU plus North Carolina in 1994 and Tennessee in 1997 -- have won the tournament without being a one or two-seed.
Essentially, when filling out your bracket, you probably want one of these eight teams to be your champion, and you probably would be safest having at least three of them in your Final Four, if not having all four come from this group.
Here's a link to the official bracket.
UCLA (1 seed)
The Bruins earned the overall No. 1 seed, with an early-season win over South Carolina being the top reason why. Led by the interior play of Lauren Betts and the perimeter play of Kiki Rice, UCLA went 30-2 this season, only losing a pair of regular season games to USC but getting revenge when the teams played in the Big Ten title game.
Lauren Betts and #UCLA women’s basketball received the No. 1 overall seed.
How far are the Bruins taking it in #MarchMadness ?? pic.twitter.com/qi2PHhJlX7
— Spencer Brown (@j_spencerbrown) March 17, 2025
This is an unselfish team despite being full of stars, with the Bruins ranking fourth in the nation in assists per game. It's also one of the most physical defensive teams, ranking 12th in both blocks and block rate and leading the nation in rebound rate.
South Carolina (1 seed)
South Carolina thought it deserved the No. 1 overall seed despite a head-to-head loss to UCLA, and I'm inclined to agree. South Carolina played a tougher schedule and came away with a 30-3 record, but had wins over NC State, Duke, and TCU, plus two wins over Texas. That's five wins over teams to receive a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
Dawn Staley's bunch doesn't have the star power it has in the past, but the Gamecocks are arguably the deepest team in the nation. Their leading scorer, freshman Joyce Edwards, started just one game all year, showcasing the depth on this roster. Even after Ashlyn Watkins tore her ACL, the Gamecocks didn't miss a beat.
The team has the nation's second-best net rating behind only UConn despite playing a very difficult SEC schedule, including three games against the Longhorns.
Texas (1 seed)
Texas went 31-3, but its chances of being the No. 1 overall seed ended with the SEC title game with its second loss to South Carolina. Both losses have looked the same — the Longhorns offense fails to materialize. The team's two lowest-scoring games have come in the two SC losses.
The other loss was an overtime defeat to Notre Dame back in December, a time when the Irish looked like they could be the best team in the nation.
Texas is led by the scoring prowess of Madison Booker and the nation's most tenacious point guard, Rori Harmon. The biggest concern with a deep playoff run is that Texas shoots just 29.6 percent from three. Can the team hit big shots in a close game?
USC (1 seed)
Even if you don't pay attention to women's basketball, you've heard the name JuJu Watkins. The sophomore guard is the best player in college basketball and could wind up breaking some of the scoring records that Caitlin Clark just set.
USC ended the season on a sour note with a Big Ten title game loss to UCLA, but the Trojans beat the Bruins twice in the regular season. USC is a tough team to beat because it pushes the ball down the court so fast, ranking 14th in Division I in pace and eighth in points per game. If the Trojans can turn a game into a track meet, they're in business.
UConn (2 seed)
Now we come to the most interesting of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, because the Huskies are just such a mystery. They lead the nation in net rating, but they also play in the Big East, a conference that might not have even been the fifth-best in the country this year.
As such, UConn had to build its resume off non-conference wins. It had some good ones, including a wild 87-58 win over South Carolina, but lost to Notre Dame, USC, and Tennessee.
Potential tournament breakout star: Sarah Strong
— Aseda. (@sonofkoom) March 17, 2025
Paige Bueckers is a star. Azzi Fudd has the ability to get hot as a shooter at any moment. Sarah Strong is the next great UConn player and has really impressed as a freshman. Still, is this team battle-tested enough to win a title?
NC State (2 seed)
The Wolfpack hit a few rough spots early on, losing three non-conference games in November to South Carolina, TCU, and LSU. However, the team righted the ship and hasn't only lost three games since Nov. 27, all to tournament teams.
Azaiaha James has established herself as one of the stars of the sport this season, averaging 17.9 points and 1.1 steals per game.
This team definitely has flaws though, especially on the defensive end. I'm hesitant to predict a deep NC State run because the team ranks just 188th in opponent points per game.
TCU (2 seed)
No program has turned itself around over the last few years like TCU. In 2022-23, the team won eight games. Last year, it hired former Oregon assistant Mark Campbell and won 20 times, but faltered down the stretch due to injury and failed to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
But this season, TCU was healthy and added guard Hailey Van Lith. HVL combined with the duo of Sedona Prince and Madison Conner turned the Horned Frogs into contenders, with the team going 31-3.
TCU is a slow, methodical team that works to get the right shots, which is why the team is second in the nation in points per 100 possessions. Prince has been a monster inside, and the shooters around her have taken advantage of the extra spacing.
Duke (2 seed)
Duke earned a No. 2 seed off the strength of its ACC Tournament run, with the Blue Devils taking down both Notre Dame and NC State to win the conference.
My one concern with Duke is that it had a couple of questionable losses, losing a home game against Louisville and also dropping one against South Florida. The offense ranks 43rd in points per game and is prone to occasional struggles, but overall this is a well-rounded team.
It's also a team that's peaking at the right time. If freshman Toby Fournier can have some big nights on the offensive end, the Blue Devils can beat anyone.
Women's March Madness Sleeper Teams
Teams ranked third or lower. A third seed might not sound like a Cinderella, but the nature of the women's tournament is that the top two seeds are dominant early in the tournament, so picking a three seed or below to keep advancing is bucking some of the trends. Let's look at a few of the teams who have a chance of making noise, even if they're unlikely to win the whole thing.
Notre Dame (3 seed)
If a team seeded outside of the No. 1 or No. 2 line gets hot and wins a title, chances are it will be Notre Dame. The Irish dropping to a No. 3 seed was a bit of a shock on Sunday because while the team has definitely struggled a bit lately, its overall body of work is still incredibly strong.
Notre Dame lost three of its last five games. Friday marks 13 days since they last touched the floor.
Liatu King, Hannah Hidalgo and the Irish are ready for No. 14 Stephen F. Austin.
"We're extremely hungry, especially how we died off at the end of the regular season." pic.twitter.com/Qbf4C9KwIO
— Bennett Wise WSBT (@BennettWiseWSBT) March 17, 2025
The Irish might have the most high-end talent in the country. Hannah Hidalgo is an elite scorer. Olivia Miles is the best point guard in college basketball. Sonia Citron is the perfect three-and-D glue player. Liatu King and Maddy Westbeld are very underrated pieces.
There's a reason Notre Dame has better betting odds to win the tournament than NC State, Duke, and TCU have.
Kentucky (4 seed)
Kentucky faded a bit down the stretch as the Wildcats lost three of their final four games, which included a quick exit in the SEC Tournament against Oklahoma. However, all three teams they lost to in that span earned top-three seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
The Wildcats played a tough schedule all year and came out ahead in some of those games, including wins over Alabama, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.
This team just has to figure out a few things when it comes to consistently producing on the offensive end, because the defense isn't quite good enough to make up for a bad offensive showing. Kentucky is 1-7 when it scores fewer than 70 points.
Florida State (6 seed)
Florida State is led by Ta'Niya Latson, the nation's leading scorer this season, and also has a really talented big in Makayla Timpson.
The Seminoles haven't always been able to put everything together though, largely because they have a pretty awful defense. The team is second in the nation in scoring offense, but ranks 307th in scoring defense.
FSU's path to winning in March is to outduel teams. That's not a recipe for a championship, but it could be enough to get the 'Noles to the second weekend of the tournament. No. 3 seed LSU should be terrified of a Round of 32 matchup with Florida State.
Vanderbilt (7 seed)
Sometimes winning in March is just about having the right player get hot. Vanderbilt freshman Mikayla Blakes ranks seventh in the nation in scoring and had some explosive games during the season, including a pair of games with over 50 points.
Mikayla Blakes scored 30 of her 55 POINTS (D-1 Freshman record) in the final 6 minutes of the 4th quarter and OT 🔥pic.twitter.com/2jENhJkgiK https://t.co/mOYQehyhMs
— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) February 17, 2025
The bracket also feels primed for Vanderbilt to make a run. First-round opponent Oregon is a solid team but lacks elite upside on either end. Prospective Round of 32 opponent Duke is probably the weakest No. 2 seed.
Really, Blakes could drag this Commodores team all the way to the Elite Eight, where a meeting with South Carolina would probably spoil a Cinderella run.
Harvard (10 seed)
If you don't watch much mid-major women's college basketball, you might not know a ton about Harvard's Harmoni Turner, one of the nation's most exciting players. Turner is ninth in Division I in points per game and also 19th in steals per game.
Harvard was part of a strong Ivy League group this year, with three teams from the conference earning tournament bids. That the Crimson enter March Madness off a weekend of defeating two tournament teams is a nice bit of battle testing. Michigan State should be worried in the first round. NC State should maybe be worried in the second round.
So, Who Should We Pick?
Like I said above, three of your four Final Four teams should be one or two seeds, because that's traditionally been about how things have looked.
Here are my picks to make the Final Four: UCLA, USC, South Carolina, and Notre Dame. Two one seeds and then a No. 3 seed that probably should have been a No. 2 seed.
And when picking your Final Four, let's not forget that it's rare for multiple teams seeded third or lower to make it that far. Last year was the first time it happened since 2016, as NC State and UConn both made it to Cleveland but last in the national semifinals to a No. 1 seed, setting up a South Carolina/Iowa final. Chalk won in the end.
