RADIO
If you’re a fringe dynasty playoff team looking to make a splash this offseason, there are certainly several high-quality veterans to help you do that. In yesterday’s edition, we covered quarterbacks and running backs dynasty managers should be looking to buy this offseason. Here, we’ll be focusing on the wide receiver and tight end positions.
Often, the best time to buy, especially for veterans is right after the season. Guys like Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Keenan Allen finished the season on a sour note. Add in the unknowns surrounding Adams’ future in Las Vegas and the coaching search in Los Angeles and their value is depreciating.
Interestingly, looking at the tight end position, there are several younger players dynasty managers should be looking to acquire on the cheap before their value increases over the offseason, which it surely will. Act now and get better prices. Let’s look at who you should be buying this offseason.
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Wide Receivers
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
Some people are writing Adams off. This year was the beginning of the end for him. He’s 31 years old after all. It’s only going to get worse. Sports Illustrated has him ranked as their WR21 going into 2024. PFF has him at WR 27. We’ll respond to that with a movie quote from “Ali” starring Will Smith that I think, perfectly captures Adams’ upcoming 2024 season. “This was supposed to be the fight that Muhammad Ali was ended. Supposed the myth that Muhammad was gonna fall! Supposed to be my destruction! Well, they miscalculated, they misjudged, they got it wrong!”
Looking to BUY a difference-making vet without breaking the bank?
How about a WR who’s:
Posting his 8th-CONSECUTIVE season with 15+ PPG.
WR8 in expected PPG (17.1 PPG, same as Stefon Diggs).
Not even valued as a Top-75 overall asset anymore…
BUY Davante Adams. pic.twitter.com/jcQWEJlLPI
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) December 21, 2023
The Raiders quarterbacks ranked 25th in completion percentage, 23rd in pass attempts, 23rd in passing yards, 22nd in passing touchdowns, 6th in interceptions, 26th in yards per attempt, and 28th in quarterback rating. Not only that, but the team fired their coach mid-season. Ladies and gentlemen, that right there, that’s a picture-perfect recipe for failure. And yet, Adams didn’t fail. No, he may not have been his superstar self, but no, he didn’t fail.
He finished 2023 with the second-most targets (175). He had the 10th most receptions (103), 15th most yards (1,144), and was tied for the 8th most touchdowns (8). Nah, this isn’t a dude who is done yet. Not even close. He had the second-best target share (33.1%), second-best target rate (31.1%), and the highest air yard share (44.2%) among all receivers. He earned the second-most red zone targets (29) and had the most unrealized air yards (1,088). That doesn’t sound like a dude who is falling off. No, that sounds like a dude who needs a quarterback.
Judging from the quarterback numbers above, it’s very difficult – borderline impossible – for those numbers to get worse. He’ll either get traded, the Raiders will draft someone, or they’ll sign someone. Either way, no matter which way it goes down, his 2024 quarterback play is highly likely to be better than his 2023 quarterback play. Despite how bad his quarterback play was, Adams still finished as the WR14 with a 15.6 PPG. He’s an easy buy as there is.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
There will be some people who will have the opinion that starting in Week 10 of this past year Diggs had his first encounter with FatherTime. After all, from Weeks 10-17, Diggs averaged just 9.0 PPG, which ranked as the WR51. Including Week 18 now, Diggs still maintained a 7.9 target per game average. Over 17 games that equates to 134. Now, that’s a bit below what he finished with in 2023 (16) or 2022 (155) or 2021 (164). To that I’d say, relax.
During that eight-game stretch, Josh Allen had games of 15 and 21 pass attempts. From 2020-2022, Allen had two games under 25 pass attempts. Unfortunately, during this eight-game stretch, he had two and a third with just 26. Not only that but during Weeks 1-9, Diggs converted 79.5% of his air yards into actual yards. From Weeks 10-18, he converted just 57.5%. The “wall” he hit at the end of the season was nothing other than bad luck (two outlier low passing games from Allen) and variance (converted air yards).
Stefon Diggs Weeks 1-10
[ 29.1% Target Share ]
[ 10.5 aDOT ]this resulted in 20.0 PPG
Stefon Diggs Weeks 11-18
[ 25.3% Target Share ]
[ 10.2 aDOT ]this resulted in 10.0 PPG
embrace variance and BUY Stefon Diggs pic.twitter.com/96S5RCMnAs
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) January 10, 2024
KeepTradeCut indicates Diggs should cost you 1.12 or 2.01 to acquire. Despite his final seven games of the season, Diggs finished as the WR14 with a 16.1 PPG. From Weeks 1-9, he was WR3 and averaging 21.7 PPG. He was WR5 last year with an 18.6 PPG. Those final eight weeks of the season should be viewed as a tremendous buying opportunity.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
For the 1.11 pick in this year's draft, dynasty managers can acquire Samuel, and considering the fairly cheap price of acquisition, they should highly consider doing so. While teammate Brandon Aiyuk continues to get a ton of attention and rightfully so, Sameul has been just as great. This past season, he finished with 60 receptions, 1,1117 scrimmage yards, and 12 touchdowns. He finished as the WR11 in PPG at 17.0. He averaged 2.45 yards per route run (12th-best among receivers), 10.0 yards per target (10th-best), and 2.07 yards per team pass attempt (18th-best).
Despite having just 89 total targets, he still finished with 17 red zone targets, which was the 14th most. With the emergence of Aiyuk and Samuel's somewhat lackluster receiving stats, dynasty managers might be able to get Samuel even cheaper, but he's worth inquiring about.
Every WR averaging 17+ PPG under the age of 30 is valued as a Top-12 dynasty WR except:
- Michael Pittman Jr.
- Deebo Samuel
- DJ MooreBUY, BUY, BUY.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) December 16, 2023
Despite a "down" season last year, Samuel still finished as the WR23 in PPG at 13.7, which was right ahead of yes, Brandon Aiyuk. Samuel finished ahead of Aiyuk this past year, as well. He was hampered by injuries last season, appearing in just 13 games, but still averaged 66.5 scrimmage yards per game. That equates to 1,131 yards over 17 games.
We can't forget his 2021 season when he finished as the WR3 with a 20.7 PPG. Over the last three years, Samuel has two top-12 finishes and another top-24 finish. Brock Purdy has stabilized the quarterback position and the 49ers' offense should continue to be a top-five unit for years to come. The number of mouths to feed narrative and Aiyuk's ascension have decreased Samuel's value, but he's a solid high-end WR2 candidate dynasty managers can acquire for a late-first or early-second-round pick.
Michael Pittman Jr., Free Agent
I’m assuming one way or another Pittman is back with the Colts. He’ll either get tagged or extended. Dynasty managers, based on KeepTradeCut, can acquire Pittman for the 1.07 pick in this year’s draft. There are six elite prospects – Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, and Brock Bowers – but after that, the talent value falls a bit. Pittman is just 26 years old and is coming off the best season of his career. He had 156 targets (ninth-most), 109 receptions (fifth-most), and 1,152 yards (14th-most). Over these last three seasons, he’s averaging 99 receptions a year.
Consider his 2023 stats and his WR12 finish (16.2 PPG) with the fact that the Colts’ quarterbacks ranked 27th in completion percentage, 20th in passing yards, 24th in passing touchdowns, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 20th in quarterback rating. Getting Anthony Richardson back in his second season in the NFL and the entire offense’s second season under Shane Steichen could result in a major uptick in offensive production. Steichen was one of the best coaches this past season and dynasty managers should be excited about this offense’s potential moving forward.
Since 2021, Pittman has the seventh-most targets and catches. He’s an excellent asset in PPR scoring and he has yet to play with a good quarterback. They ranked 27th in attempts and 26th in passing yards in 2021. They were 23rd in passing yards and 24th in passing touchdowns despite being ninth in passing attempts in 2022. Dynasty managers can acquire a legit top-12 and one who still should have 4-5 excellent years ahead of him. He’s tied to an exciting young quarterback and one of the league's best young, offensive coaches.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Allen isn’t young anymore, but he is still extremely gifted at the game of football. Not to mention, he’s fairly cheap to acquire. KeepTradeCut has a value of just 2.06. Prior to the 2023 season, there were a lot of fantasy managers fading Allen because of the hamstring injury that plagued him in 2022. This brought up awful memories for fantasy managers from *checks notes* in the 2015 and 2016 seasons. From 2017-2021, Allen played in 78 out of 81 games. This past season he missed the final four games of the year, but I’m attributing most of that to the fact the team had been eliminated from the playoffs, Justin Herbert was on IR, and there was simply no reason to risk anything.
However, despite missing four games he still finished with 150 targets (10th-most), 108 receptions (6th), 1,243 yards (11th), and 7 touchdowns (18th). He had the third-best target share (32.0%), third-best target rate (29.9%), and ninth in air yard share (38.7%). He also had the 11th-best yard-per-route run average at 2.48. He finished as the WR3 in PPG, averaging 21.5 PPG.
While the Chargers could save $23.1 million by cutting Allen this offseason, they’d also take on a $11.6 million dead cap hit. Considering how effective Allen was this past season, I’m expecting Allen to still be a Charger in 2024. Mike Williams, however, I’d expect him to be cut. The Chargers are well over the salary cap. They can save $20.0 million by cutting Williams and will incur a $12.4 dead cap hit. He’s also coming off a torn ACL and hasn’t been nearly as effective as Allen.
Allen isn’t much older than Adams and will once again be catching passes from Justin Herbert. Considering the porous defense for the Chargers, the passing volume should once again be high. While some may view the Chargers selecting Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze as a negative, I’d argue it’ll only help the offense and thus, help Allen. With Williams likely gone and Quentin Johnston fresh off one of the worst first-year seasons for a first-round receiver in recent memory, Allen won’t have much competition for targets.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Godwin is just 28 years old and has three straight seasons of at least 80 receptions and 1,000 yards. It really would have been five straight seasons of those marks if he hadn’t gotten hurt in 2020, which caused him to miss four games. He finished with 65 receptions, and 840 yards that season, but his per-game averages had him on pace for 92 receptions and 1,190 yards. The year prior to that he had 86 receptions and 1,333 yards. Despite these marks, he can be acquired for this year’s 2.05 according to KeepTradeCut.
From 2019-2023, Godwin’s per-game averages equate to 143 targets, 103 receptions, 1,257 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Over 17 games, that results in a 15.6 PPG average. Touchdowns have been a problem for him as of late. He has scored just five touchdowns over the past two years despite having 272 targets and 187 receptions. That’s just a 2.7% touchdown rate. From 2019-2021, he scored 21 touchdowns on 332 targets and 249 receptions. That equals an 8.4% touchdown rate. While dynasty managers shouldn’t expect a return to that previous touchdown rate, it’s completely reasonable to expect Godwin to bounce back to a 4-6% touchdown rate.
Teammate Mike Evans is a free agent this offseason and prior contract negotiations fell apart earlier in the year. Hopefully, offensive coordinator Dave Canales doesn't get a head coaching position because dynasty managers could then expect a year-two uptick in efficiency and effectiveness in 2024. He's a fairly cheap acquisition who should give dynasty managers several years of WR2/3 seasons.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Pitts is currently acquirable for the 1.12 pick in the 2024 draft according to KeepTradeCut. With the Falcons getting rid of head coach, Arthur Smith, dynasty managers should be all over that cost. Pitts is still an elite prospect and despite what most might say about him, has backed that up in the pros. He went over 1,000 yards as a rookie, an accomplishment no rookie tight end has accomplished in the last 25 years. Sure, he may have disappointed for fantasy because he had just one touchdown, but that has a lot more to do with his quarterback and the general state of the Falcons' offense.
Even this past year, there were plenty of positives dynasty managers can take away from Pitts' season. He had a 23.3% air yard share (first among tight ends), 11.4 average depth of target (first), 479 unrealized air yards (first), and 12.6 yards per reception (fourth). He's routinely been used down the field for three years straight and if he could get a capable quarterback, a lot of those unrealized air yards could become actual yards.
He continues to command targets at a high rate, evidenced by the tweet below. It's almost important to know that for the 2023 season, Pitts was playing after a torn MCL/PCL. The injury was worse than originally reported. That's something to consider when looking at his 2023 season.
Tight Ends to start their career with three straight 18.0%+ Target Share seasons
[ Kyle Pitts ]
that’s it
bUt kYLe PiTtS iS a bUsT pic.twitter.com/T2m0sHSxIQ
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) January 4, 2024
In 2022 and 2023, Pitts finished first in unrealized air yards among tight ends. In 2022, his catchable target rate was 59.3%, which ranked 37th among tight ends. This past year, his catchable target rate was 64.0%, which was also 37th. Better quarterback play should improve both of those numbers. Some of you may be saying, "Well, we said that last year." We did, but it continues to be true.
The other number that we should expect to improve with a new head coach is Pitts' route participant rate. In no season of his career has Pitts finished in the top five for route participant rate. Considering his age, athleticism, and elite skillset at the tight end position, this is absurd. Dynasty managers can reasonably expect this number to improve in 2024. Pitts still has top-five upside and could be a potential game-breaker at the position yet and that's worth betting on.
Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders
Mayer falls somewhat in the Trey McBride category. A lot of dynasty managers somewhat wrote McBride off after a very disappointing rookie season and some might be making the same mistake with Mayer. However, we need to remember just how insanely productive he was in college.
Over his final two seasons in college, he had 204 targets, 138 receptions, 1,649 yards, and 16 touchdowns. He also had a 35.8% college dominator rating, which finished in the 95th percentile. College dominator and RAS (relative athletic score) are two predictive measures for college tight ends transitioning to the NFL and Mayer checks both boxes. His RAS was 7.65/10.00, with 8.00 being considered elite and while his rookie season may not look great on paper, it's likely better than what you're giving it credit for.
Michael Mayer is going to be 2024’s biggest TE riser.
6th amongst TE’s in YAC/reception (6.0).
10th in contested catch-rate (5/9; 55.6%).
13th in broken tackles (8) – despite ranking 31st in routes run (273).
Checking all the boxes.
✅✅✅ pic.twitter.com/4LX87ezJbs
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) January 3, 2024
Via KeepTradeCut, Mayer can be acquired for the 2.07 in this year's draft. It seems like a foregone conclusion that the Raiders will get better quarterback play in 2024, which will undoubtedly help Mayer. His 2023 route participation rate was at just 58.2%, which ranked 28th among tight ends. With veteran Austin Hooper likely out of the picture, Mayer should move into a full-time role and due to that, his number of routes run should increase significantly.
He wasn't a huge part of the Raider's offense this past year, but he still averaged 7.6 yards per target (12th-best among tight ends) and 11.3 yards per reception (ninth-best). Considering his collegiate production and his high second-round draft pick status, Mayer is an easy busy. With the increased role and better quarterback play in 2024, don't be surprised if Mayer finishes as a top-12 tight end next season.
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