Wide Receiver Best-Ball Rankings and Analysis

August 19, 2021

Wide receiver rankings analysis for 2021 best ball drafts for WRs in the top tiers. Phil Clark breaks down the best values relative to ADP for best ball leagues.

Many of you are now dedicating your focus toward draft preparation and roster construction during these final weeks of the offseason. That includes anyone who is involved in the best-ball format. Multiple factors are incorporated into your preparations before you enter each draft room, which will expedite the eventual decision-making process for every selection. It is beneficial to make sure that your plan will accommodate all aspects of your league’s scoring, while also addressing any other nuances that might be unique to that league.

But it is also critical that you remain flexible so that you can instantly adjust your thinking if unexpected opportunities develop at any point during each draft. This is particularly true for the best-ball format, which does not provide the option of in-season roster management. That’s why the team at RotoBaller is providing the resources that you need to help you prepare for every draft in this popular format. 

We will also deliver breakdowns of the latest tiered rankings following every update. That includes my two-part series that will examine the wide receiver position. This article will place the spotlight on Tiers 1-3, and you can find all of the latest rankings here.

WR Best-Ball Rankings

Tier 1

Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill,  Stefon Diggs  

Adams has re-reemerged as the first wide receiver to be selected during the majority of drafts. This has transpired following a long-awaited conclusion to the uncertainty surrounding the status of Aaron Rodgers. The fractured relationship between Rodgers and the Packers had fueled a drop in Adams’ ADP (20/WR3). But Rodgers’ arrival at training camp restored Adams’ ADP to the middle of Round 1 (7). Adams generated the highest per games averages among all receivers in targets (10.6), receptions (8.2), and yardage (98.1), during 2020. He also finished at WR1 in scoring despite missing two matchups (hamstring).

These two again.@AaronRodgers12 with a perfectly thrown ball to @tae15adams. #GoPackGo

📺: #TENvsGB on NBC
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/iW14QNTbk4 pic.twitter.com/v7P6mFZPio

— NFL (@NFL) December 28, 2020

Adams also generated an NFL-best 18 touchdowns and led all receivers in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement). Adams will be an elite point producer, who provides managers with a viable alternative to the relentless selection of running backs in Round 1.

Hill joins Adams as the only receivers with Round 1 ADPs (10), as managers remain willing to invest in his exceptional talent and the prospects of extensive targeting from Patrick Mahomes. Hill finished at WR2 in 2020, while collecting a career-high 15 touchdowns. He also finished seventh in receiving yards (1,276/85.1 per game), fourth in air yards (1,708), and eighth in percentage share of air yards (35.9), while operating with unwavering home-run capabilities. The departure of Sammy Watkins has created an uninspiring depth chart below Hill (Mecole Hardman/Byron Pringle/Demarcus Robinson). This will allow Hill to join Travis Kelce in absorbing a massive target share while operating with the potential to explode for significant yardage on every route.

Diggs averaged 7.6 targets, 5.2 receptions, and 66 yards per game from 2015-2019. But those averages rose to 10.4 targets, 7.9 receptions, and 95.9 yards per game during his first season with Josh Allen. Diggs also led the NFL in all three categories (166 targets/127 receptions/1,535 yards), while also finishing second in first downs (73), and yards before catch (1,071). He also finished at WR3 in scoring, and should flourish once again as Buffalo’s WR1. He will operate with Allen for a second season, while functioning within an attack that led the NFL in first-down pass percentage (50.4%). This cements him in our first tier, and delivers your incentive to select him at the beginning of Round 2.

Tier 2

Calvin Ridley, D.K. Metcalf,  DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown

Ridley assembled the most prolific numbers of his career in 2020 and is now primed to commandeer his place among the league’s elite receivers. He soared to WR5 in scoring during his third season and easily led the league in air yards (2,018). Ridley also paced his position in yards before catch (1,099), and generated the most games with 100+ yards (8). Ridley also finished among the top seven in targets (143/9.5 per game), receiving yards (1,374/91.6 per game), and first down receptions (65), while his usage and output rose during the seven-game absence of Julio Jones (11.3 targets/7.1 receptions/109.3 yards per game).

Jones’ departure has cleared a pathway for Ridley to easily surpass last season’s target share (25.1%). That will propel him among the league leaders in every major receiving category.

D.K. Metcalf is 23 years of agepic.twitter.com/0f0oHkSpaK

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 12, 2021

There are no lingering questions regarding Metcalf’s home-run potential every time he progresses through a route. Nor is there any doubt that Metcalf is operating with a quarterback who can capitalize on his uncommon size, speed, and explosiveness. His production will be impacted if Pete Carroll restricts the Seahawks from fully unleashing their passing attack. This will determine whether Metcalf's numbers resemble his results from Weeks 1-9 (8 touchdowns/8.5 targets/98.5 yards/123.6 air yards per game), or are more closely aligned with his diminished usage and production from Weeks 10-16 (2 touchdowns/7.6 targets/64.4 yards/97.4 air yards per game). However, there have been encouraging signs that Carroll will not place constraints on coordinator Shane Waldron’s restructured attack. Metcalf’s ability to prevail against overmatched defenders should also encourage you to bypass concerns about Carroll, while elevating Metcalf among your top five receiving options.

Hopkins’ transition to Arizona did not prevent him from assembling another prolific season in 2020. He has now accumulated over 1,200+ targets, and 10,000+ yards during his career, while averaging 10.2 targets, 6.3 receptions, and 83.7 yards per game since 2014. That includes last year’s per-game averages (10 targets/7.2 receptions/87.9 yards) when Hopkins led all receivers in first downs (75) while finishing second in target share (29.4%), receptions (115), and receiving yards (1,407). 

Hopkins will operate as the foundation of Arizona’s passing attack, while the additions of A. J. Green and explosive rookie Rondale Moore should redirect resources that would have been focused on neutralizing Hopkins. He remains embedded among the league’s top six receivers and should be targeted in Round 2 of your drafts.  

Jefferson was not selected until Round 13 of 2020’s best-ball drafts and entered Week 3 with just 6 targets, 5 receptions, and 70 yards. But he averaged 8.5 targets, 5.9 receptions, and 95 yards per game from Weeks 3-17. That vaulted him to the league lead in receiving yardage (1,330), while he also finished eighth in both targets (112), and receptions (83). He was also fifth in air yards (1,368), and seventh in both target share (27.2%), and percentage share of air yards, (41.6%). Jefferson also established a new rookie record with 1,400 yards for the season.

Justin Jefferson just broke the record for MOST RECEIVING YARDS by a ROOKIE in NFL history 🚨

Congrats fam 🤞 @JJettas2 (via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/BBkFebKVlw

— Overtime (@overtime) January 3, 2021

Minnesota will maintain a commitment to the run while Mike Zimmer is the head coach. However, Jefferson will operate as the Vikings’ WR1 and is a top-seven selection at his position.

Brown has generated 2,126 yards (1,075/1,051), and 19 touchdowns (11/8), during his first two seasons, while averaging 6.3 targets, 4.1 receptions, and 70.9 yards per game. The addition of Jones will prevent Brown from collecting the monstrous target total that had originally been projected. But Brown’s production should keep him entrenched among the WR1s. Jones will confiscate a sizable percentage of opportunities if he eludes lingering injuries. But he will also force opposing coordinators to divert defenders from their coverage of Brown. This should instill confidence in targeting Brown during Round 2 of your drafts.

Tier 3

Allen Robinson, Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Robert Woods, Amari Cooper

Only two wide receivers collected more targets than Robinson last season (151/9.4 per game), while his role as Chicago's primary receiving weapon was completely unchallenged. This elevated him to fourth in receptions (102/6.4 per game), first downs (68), and red zone targets (18). The impending development of Darnell Mooney during his second season will not prevent Robinson from capturing another mammoth target share. However, the eventual infusion of Justin Fields under center will be the most significant factor that alters the equation for Chicago’s attack. This will remove Robinson’s career-long hurdle of performing with a procession of substandard quarterbacks. It could also reduce the number of opportunities that are dispersed to Chicago’s receiving options, after the Bears finished sixth in pass play percentage during 2020 (62.3%).

McLaurin has led Washington in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, air yards, and percentage share of air yards during each of his first two seasons while averaging 7.8 targets 5.0 receptions, 70.2 yards, and 90.1 air yards per game during that span. That includes his averages during 2020 (8.9 targets/ 5.8 receptions/74.5 yards/87.3 air yards per game) when he generated career-highs in each category (134 targets/87 receptions/1,118 yards/1,310 air yards). He also performed in a Washington offense that ranked 30th in yards per attempt (5.8), and dead last in yards per completion (8.9). However, the emergence of Ryan Fitzpatrick allows McLaurin to operate with the most aggressive quarterback of his career. This should propel him to the periphery of WR1 status.

Allen is currently being selected in Round 3 of most drafts (ADP 30/WR9). But managers could be even more galvanized to seize the eight-year veteran if he had not encountered a hamstring issue in Week 14. Allen was averaging 11.1 targets per game during his first 13 matchups, which had vaulted him to the league lead in overall targets (144).

I could watch Keenan Allen run routes all day.

(🎥: @chargers) pic.twitter.com/GRXdzJsNN7

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) August 7, 2021

He was also second in receptions (99/7.6 per game) and would have accumulated 178 targets, 122 receptions, and 1,200 yards if he had maintained his pace. The 29-year old could surpass the expectations of his ADP during his second year with Justin Herbert, while he functions as the premier receiving option in an emerging offense.

CeeDee Lamb with the UNREAL catchpic.twitter.com/3fiamuadHM

— Tom Downey (@WhatGoingDowney) November 22, 2020

Lamb is being selected as a WR1 (WR10), while his ADP has soared to the threshold of Round 2. This currently places him 14 slots ahead of teammate Amari Cooper (28/42), which underscores the surging optimism that exists for the talented second-year receiver. He had quickly ascended to sixth in receiving yards with Dak Prescott under center (433/86.6 per game) and was 10th in targets (40/8 per game), ninth in receptions (29/5.8 per game), and second in receptions of 20+ yards (9) during that sequence (Weeks 1-5). Lamb would have accumulated 128 targets, 93 receptions, and 1,386 yards if he had maintained that pace, and is capable of fulfilling all lofty expectations when Prescott is spearheading the Cowboys' attack.

Evans performed in all 16 regular season matchups during 2020 and was the only Buccaneer to eclipse 100 targets (109), and 1,000 yards (1,006/62.9 per game). Evans also averaged 7.9 targets, 5.0 receptions, and 79.1 yards per game with Antonio Brown running routes for Tampa Bay (Weeks 9-17), while leading the team in targets (63/20.5% share), and receiving yardage (633), during that sequence.

He also led all receivers in receptions of 20+ yards during those eight matchups (14), was third in red zone targets (12), 11th overall in yardage (633/79.1 per game), and tied for fourth in touchdowns (6). Evans also led the Buccaneers in point per game scoring while Tom Brady was distributing passes to all three receivers (17.4). Evans will share opportunities with Brown and Chris Godwin once again, which impacts the statistical ceiling of each receiver. But he can still operate as a WR2 for anyone who secures him during Round 4 of their drafts.

Godwin contended with multiple health issues (hamstring/finger/concussion) which cemented him to the sideline during four contests. He was also performing in an offense that experienced a sizable transformation with the arrival of Brady, and the addition of Brown. Godwin was averaging 7.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, and 69.8 yards per game from Weeks 1-8, and averaged 6.9 targets, 5.0 receptions, and 70.1 yards per game after Brown emerged with the Buccaneers. Godwin’s target share will be impacted by Brady’s distribution of passes to Brown and Evans. But Godwin finished at WR15 in points per game scoring after Brown was infused into the attack, and could exceed last year’s production during a second season with Brady. That elevates him among your viable options during Round 5 of all drafts.

Robert Woods receiving since 2018

🌲 375 targets
🌲 8 drops pic.twitter.com/nC7Ze8XbSY

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) March 14, 2021

Woods has secured 129+ targets for three consecutive seasons (129/139/130) while averaging 8.5 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 70 yards per game during that span. He has also served as a reliable resource for the Rams and will join Cooper Kupp in operating as the primary options within LA’s revamped passing attack. Woods will benefit from a significant upgrade in talent under center. Matthew Stafford finished seventh in both intended air yards (4,609/8.7 per attempt), and completed air yards (2,343/6.9 per completion) during 2020, while the now-departed Jared Goff was 21st (3,406/6.2 per attempt) and 19th (1,800/4.9 per completion) respectively. Stafford’s arrival should sustain Woods’ consistent targeting while also expanding his yardage total. 

Cooper re-emerged at training camp following his lingering recovery from ankle surgery. Now, any remaining concern surrounding his prospects of delivering WR1 output has shifted to the status of Prescott’s shoulder. Cooper is positioned to rekindle the statistical momentum that he generated early last season if Prescott is under center, Cooper was WR1 entering Week 5, before Prescott’s extended absence (ankle) torpedoed Cooper’s prolific start. Cooper was also averaging 9.3 receptions, 100.3 yards, and a league-high 12.8 targets per game in those contests, but those averages plunged dropped to 6.8 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 62.7 yards per game during Prescott’s extended absence. Cooper should outperform his ADP if Prescott remains on the field. 

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