Biggest Breakouts of 2020 - Wide Receivers

January 25, 2021

Phil Clark reviews the top wide receiver breakouts from the 2020 fantasy football season.

If you captured a league championship during the 2020 season, then the euphoria that you initially embraced has gradually been replaced by a focus on the construction of your rosters for 2021. If your diligent efforts did not result in a league title, then you have persevered through your disappointment, and have now entered your planning process for the upcoming season.

This has compelled many of you to project your rankings in Best Ball and redraft leagues, while other managers are examining options in an attempt to reconstruct dynasty rosters. Regardless of which formats that you are involved with, the team at RotoBaller is already delivering non-stop news and analysis that will create a pathway to league championships in 2021.

That includes this article, which will identify wide receivers that achieved the most noteworthy breakout performances during the season. The veterans that are contained in this group ascended into loftier tiers by delivering the most prolific seasons of their careers. These players experienced a sizable improvement in their production during 2020 while averaging 138 targets, 87 receptions, and 1,180 yards during the year. They were joined by an exceptionally talented rookie who skyrocketed to elite status while constructing a historic season.

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons

Ridley continued the steady statistical ascent that has occurred during his three NFL seasons, as the former first-round draft selection in 2018 has risen to unquestioned top tier status during 2020.

Calvin Ridley = ELITE receiver.

Take a look back at @CalvinRidley1's top catches of the 2020 season.

?: https://t.co/8tGnbNnWW3 pic.twitter.com/WrL14Y27iq

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) January 11, 2021

Ridley began the season by amassing 35 targets (11.7 per game), capturing 21 receptions (3 per game), and generating 349 yards (116.3 per game) from Weeks 1-3. That placed him among the top five in each category during that sequence, while he also accrued a league-best four touchdowns. That favorable usage and output was sustained from Weeks 11-17, as Ridley led the league in receiving yardage (717/102.4 per game). He was also first in air yards (1,023), second in targets (75/10.7 per game), and sixth in receptions (47/6.7 per game) during those contests.

He also paced the league in targets (47/11.8 per game) and air yards (632) from Weeks 14-17, while finishing second overall in receptions (31/7.8 per game), and receiving yards (469/117.3 per game). Julio Jones was absent due to his lingering hamstring issue during that four-game span.

These productive sequences propelled him to WR5 in scoring for the season, while Ridley finished with 143 targets (9.5 per game), 90 receptions (6 per game), 1,374 yards (91.6 per game), and 8 touchdowns. That placed him fourth overall in receiving yards, sixth in touchdowns, seventh in targets, and 11th in receptions.

Ridley also exceeded 100 yards in eight different matchups, which led all receivers. He also collected a league-high 2,018 air yards and was first in yards before the catch (1,099). He was also third overall in percentage share of air yards (41.6), tied for first in receptions of 20+ yards (23), and was second with 21 red zone targets.

Any concerns regarding his ability to accrue sizable usage and production with Jones in the lineup can be quelled by reviewing his per-game averages of 8.0 targets, 5.1 receptions, and 68.9 receiving yardage during the eight games that both receivers performed in. If you extract the results of his Week 5 performance (5 targets/0 receptions/0 yardage) then his averages rise to 8.3 targets, 5.9 receptions, and 79 yards per game.

The hiring of Arthur Smith as Atlanta's next head coach increases the likelihood that Matt Ryan will begin his 14th season under center while guiding the Falcons’ restructured attack. Jones should also re-join Ridley to form one of the league’s most formidable receiving tandems. But Ridley has established his ability to operate among the top 10 at his position regardless of Jones’ status and is worthy of consideration in Round 2 of all drafts.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

SNAGGED BY DK! @DangeRussWilson hits @dkm14 for the touchdown!

Watch #LARvsSEA: https://t.co/4wLmfWGLCk pic.twitter.com/9gDmNPv7N3

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) January 9, 2021

Metcalf entered his 2019 rookie season with a unique mixture of appealing athleticism, blazing speed, and enticing explosiveness. He fused those attributes with his gradual development as a wide receiver to finish his first year at WR33 in PPR scoring. He also became the only first-year receiver to collect 100 targets, while also generating 900 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns. He also punctuated his rookie season with a combined 300 yards during Week 17 and the Seahawks’ playoff matchups.

That supplied the incentive for managers to select him 50th overall during their 2020 drafts. But Metcalf vaulted far beyond expectations during the first half of the regular season, as he entered Week 10 at WR3 in PPR scoring. He was also second overall in receiving yardage (788/98.5 per game), and touchdowns (8), while also placing third in air yards (989), and 12th in targets (68/8.5 per game). He accumulated 92+ yards in seven of his first eight games and accrued 106+ in four of his six matchups from Weeks 3-9. He also averaged 18.0 yards per reception and 11.6 yards per target during that span.

Seattle was also sixth in pass play percentage (62.5%) entering Week 10, while Russell Wilson was averaging 37.1 attempts, 26.4 completions and 317.6 yards per game. This comprised the “Let Russ Cook” segment of Seattle’s season, which was highly celebrated within the fantasy industry. It also propelled Metcalf to his enormously productive outings.

But Wilson’s per-game averages dropped to 21.6 completions, 32.6 attempts, and 208.9 yards per game from Weeks 10-17. This impacted Metcalf, who averaged 7.6 targets, 5.0 receptions, and 64.4 yards per game during that span. He also averaged 12.0 yards per reception and 8.4 yards per target in those contests.

However, that still placed Metcalf 14th in targets, 16th in receptions, and 17th in yardage during that sequence. Metcalf also finished the season at WR7 in scoring and was fourth in air yards (1,688). He was also sixth in receiving yardage (1,303/81.4 yards per game), sixth in touchdowns (10), 13th in targets (129/8.1 per game), and 17th in receptions (83/10.4 per game).

The primary obstacle that could deter Metcalf from finishing among the top five in scoring this season would be an unyielding preference for Seattle’s ground game by Pete Carroll. The decision to fire former offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer could be an indication that Carroll will proceed with an unnecessarily rigid commitment toward running the ball. This would result in an automatic failure to fully utilize the Seahawks’ most prolific receiving weapon. But that would not keep Metcalf from delivering a highly productive season.  His infinite talent and his potential to deliver mammoth production during any matchup cannot be altered. That keeps him among the top five at his position during the draft process.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Jefferson collected 165 receptions while accumulating 2,415 yards and 24 touchdowns during his final two seasons at LSU (2018-2019). That includes his output during 2019 (111 receptions/1,540 yards/18 touchdowns). Jefferson was operating from the slot on nearly 98% of his snaps during his final collegiate season. This caused most projections for Jefferson’s 2020 production to be based on the premise that he would secure slot responsibilities with the Vikings.

Jefferson was also being infused into an offense that had ranked 29th in pass play percentage during 2019 (51.7%). Mike Zimmer’s steadfast commitment to Minnesota’s ground game and Jefferson's perceived slot deployment convinced managers to draft 54 wide receivers before Jefferson was selected during Round 13 in redrafts leagues. He was also available until the conclusion of Round 1 in many dynasty drafts.

.@JJettas2 is the NFL's 1st rookie WR to be named AP All-Pro (1st or 2nd Team) since @RandyMoss in 1998. #PepsiROY pic.twitter.com/h6dyTd5yRV

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) January 8, 2021

However, Jefferson performed outside on 53.2% of his snaps as a Viking and soared to third among all wide receivers with 1,400 receiving yards (87.5 per game). That was 465 more yards than any other member of the 2020 class, while it also established a new NFL record for rookie receivers. He also finished WR6 in PPR scoring, tied for second in games of 100+ yards (7), and also in games with 150+(2).

Jefferson also finished ninth overall in yards per reception (15.9), while leading all rookies in targets (125/7.8 per game), target share (25.7), receptions (88/5.5 per game), and percentage share of air yards (37.1). His 11.2 yards per target average led all receivers that had collected over 85 targets, while he also tied for the league lead with Ridley in receptions of 20+ yards (23).

From Weeks 3-17, Jefferson led all receivers in receiving yardage (1,330/95 per game) and was fifth in air yards (1,368). He was also sixth in target share (27.2), seventh in percentage share of air yards (41.4), eighth in targets (119/8.5 per game), and was also eighth in receptions (83/5.9 per game). Jefferson also led the Vikings in each category during that span.

Jefferson assembled his outstanding numbers while functioning within an offense that once again ranked among the bottom six in pass play percentage (27th/54.3%). He is rapidly approaching WR1 status for managers and should be seized near the conclusion of Round 2 in your drafts.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team

Who else but Terry McLaurin to strike first for @WashingtonNFL!

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/gng64mFzKZ

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 4, 2021

McLaurin's 2020 breakout season was hardly unexpected as he approached that status during his 2019 rookie season. An unwanted blend of issues (concussion/hamstring) sidelined him for two matchups while preventing McLaurin from attaining 1,000 yards (919/65.6 per game). But he also averaged 6.6 targets and 4.1 receptions per game, while firmly establishing himself as Washington's primary receiving weapon. McLaurin finished the season fourth overall in percentage share of air yards (42.2) and was also 10th in yards per target (9.9), and 16th in targeted air yards (14.1).

McLaurin continued to operate as The Football Team's premier receiver while delivering that breakout season in 2020. He also accomplished it while overcoming a production-inhibiting ankle issue which affected his effectiveness from Weeks 13-17. McLaurin had ascended to WR9 in scoring before he encountered his injury and was leading the league in percentage share of air yards (44.7).

He was also tied for fifth among all receivers in targets during that sequence (102/9.3 per game). while vaulting to fourth in receiving yards (963/87.5 per game), ninth in air yards (1,034), and 10th in receptions (69/9.3 per game). McLaurin ultimately finished the season at WR20 in point per game scoring and was 10th in targets (129/8.9 per game), 11th in receiving yards (1,118/74.5 per game), and 15th in receptions (87/5.8 per game).

He also finished second in percentage share of air yards (42.0), and eventually led the league eight times during the nine-week period from Weeks 7-15.  This underscores the enormous statistical gap between McLaurin and Washington’s other wide receivers, as Cam Sims was second in target share (8.3) while averaging 3.9 targets, 2.7 receptions, and 47.4 yards per game. Steven Sims was third among wide receivers in target share (6.4). while averaging 3.1 targets, 2.3 receptions, and 22.9 yards per game.

Logan Thomas was second on the team in target share (19.3), followed by J.D. McKissic (19.1), while Thomas and McKissic tied for second behind McLaurin with 134 targets. Both Thomas and McKissic experienced a rise in usage when Smith ascended into the starting role from Weeks 10-14.  McKissic’s target per game average rose from 5.3 to 7.0, while Thomas’s average increased from 5.1 to 6.0. However, McLaurin still led the team during that sequence (37/7.4 per game) which includes several matchups while contending with his ankle issue. He also led Washington in targets (8), and receptions (7) when Smith returned under center in Week 17.

McLaurin accumulated his numbers while operating with Dwayne Haskins (7 games), Kyle Allen (4 games), and Taylor Heinicke  (1 game) interspersing their involvement with Smith in spearheading Washington’s offense. Smith is the only signal-caller who is currently under contract, and the identity of Washington's Week 1 starter is uncertain. But McLaurin’s ability to remain highly productive regardless of who is guiding the aerial attack elevates him to the periphery of WR1 status for fantasy GMs.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Nine wide receivers were selected before Johnson during the 2019 NFL Draft. But he entered the league in full possession of home run capabilities, due to his athleticism, and his proficiency in gaining separation on his routes.

Great route by Diontae Johnson here. One of the positives from last night. #Steelers pic.twitter.com/A6HRattp0Y

— BlitzburghVideos ✨ (@BlitzVideos) January 11, 2021

He paced his rookie class in receptions (59), while also surging beyond JuJu Smith-Schuster to lead Pittsburgh in target share (18.9), and receiving touchdowns (5). But this did not propel Johnson to a lofty ADP, as he was just the 35th receiver to be selected during the majority of 2020 drafts.

However, Johnson operated as the WR1 within a Pittsburgh passing attack that included Smith-Schuster and newcomer Chase Claypool. He led the Steelers in target share (22.2) and receiving yardage (923) while finishing at WR21 in scoring  - despite being sidelined in Week 6 with a back issue. He also finished fifth overall with an average of 9.6 targets per game. That average also rose to 11.4 per game from Weeks 7-16, as Johnson accumulated a league-best 114 targets during that span.

He attained a double-digit total in seven games during that sequence, while the second-year receiver was also third in receptions (70/7.0 per game), 11th in receiving yardage (680/68.0 per game), and sixth in touchdowns (six). This fueled his rise to sixth overall in targets from Weeks 1-17 (144/9.6 per game), as he was also one of just three receivers who was targeted 10+ times during 10 different matchups. He was also 13th with 88 receptions (5.9 per game) and also tied for 17th in touchdowns (seven).

Johnson did drop a league-high 10 passes, and this issue resulted in a temporary benching during Week 14. That created concern for managers that his role would be reduced throughout the fantasy postseason. However, he remains the Steelers' most talented receiving option and was entrusted with extensive usage upon his return to the lineup. Johnson captured a league-best 27 targets in Weeks 15-16, and also collected 16 during the team’s Wild Card matchup with AFC North rival Cleveland. This underscores his importance within Pittsburgh's aerial attack.

Johnson’s significance to the Steelers’ offensive efforts will remain intact entering the 2021 regular season. Smith-Schuster is a free agent, and it is conceivable that Pittsburgh will eschew the opportunity to re-sign him. That would allow the Steelers to proceed with Johnson and the promising Claypool as their team’s top two receivers. Johnson's ability to retain an integral role within Pittsburgh’s offense will provide managers with appealing levels of usage and production. That supplies additional incentive to target him in Round 3 of all drafts.

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