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Three MLB starters, Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann, Chicago's Lucas Giolito and Baltimore's Davis Hess, all took no-hit bids deep into their first start of the MLB season. Unless you play in an AL-only league however, you probably don't own any of them.
Now, they sit staring at you atop the waiver wire with their sparkling ERA and WHIP numbers and the temptation to add them to your roster in 10 or 12-team leagues. But before you do, let's take a look at what a hot start like this might mean for these guys' long term value.
I'm here to tell you how we should value each of these surprising starts from a trio of pitchers that you weren't expecting to even consider in fantasy this season.
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Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers
(7.0 IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 4K)
Zimmermann took an Opening Day perfect game bid into the seventh inning before a seeing-eye single off the bat of Toronto left fielder Teoscar Hernandez spoiled it. He ended up exiting after he finished the inning, giving up just the one hit and striking out four, although he didn't earn the win thanks to an equally impressive performance from Marcus Stroman on the other side.
Zimmermann had five great seasons of fantasy relevance from 2011-2015 with the Nationals, but his time with Detroit has been, shall we say, bad. His strikeout rate was under 15% in each of 2016 and 2017, and although it was better last season (20%) his four strikeouts in seven innings on Opening Day - against a strikeout-prone Toronto team - is not a good sign going forward.
While it was good to see Zimmermann abandon his ugly sinker and instead rely more on his slider, it's not enough for me to consider him a worthwhile investment outside of very deep (AL-only) leagues.
Moral of the story, don't buy into this performance from Zimmermann - instead, chalk it up to a bad Toronto offense and a little bit of Opening Day magic.
David Hess, Baltimore Orioles
(6.1 IP, 0H, 0R, 1BB, 8K)
Hess was actually pulled in the midst of a no-hitter, a casualty of baseball's overdependence on keeping pitch counts preserved - particularly early in the season. Perhaps more than the no-hitter is the eight strikeouts, which is an encouraging sign for the right-hander who posted an ugly 16.3% k rate in 19 starts last season. Those numbers came with a 4.88 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and a 5.80 FIP. Yikes.
The most encouraging note I can make from this start is that his velocity is up from last season, with his fastball averaging 94 mph (up from 91.9) and his slider at 82.9, up from 80.
Overall though, Hess, like Zimmermann, isn't very good. He, also like Zimmermann, got the pleasure of facing a bad Toronto lineup early into the season, before the start of the soon-to-be legendary Vladimir Guerrero jr era. I'm not buying unless I'm in an AL-only league, and even then I'm not expecting his value to last.
Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
(6.2 IP, 3H, 2R, 1BB, 8K)
Likely the pitcher getting the most attention out of this trio is Lucas Giolito, even though his line is the weakest of the three. That's what happens when you have immense potential and were at one point considered the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. Giolito also carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning before things fell apart - and while he wasn't facing Toronto he was facing a similarly bad lineup in Kansas City.
Still, it was encouraging to see Giolito generate 16 combined called strikes and whiffs between his slider and his changeup, both which he was able to locate for strikes throughout the game. His fastball sat around 93-94, a fine mark and one that if he can keep it up could help him become fantasy relevant this season.
I'm still not ready to buy in completely, after it all it was an average quality start against a terrible offense. Still, anyone in a 12+ team league should be at least considering Giolito, and should watch his next start against a hot-hitting Mariners team. If he can string a few together in a row, he becomes a top-100 arm and one worth looking into in 12-teamers.
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