RADIO
The stage is set for the 2024 NCAA Tournament. We start with a play-in appetizer, followed by the greatest weekend in sports. 48 games in four days. A field whittled down to 16 teams from 64. There is nothing on earth like it, and we here at RotoBaller will be with you every step of the way.
Next up is the West Region. This is the region that proves the committee pays attention to matchups. Brothers Scott and Bryce Drew could meet in the regional final if the Lopes go on a miracle run. The chalk regional final would pit Caleb Love and Arizona against his former North Carolina team. The regional final could be the most compelling in recent memory if one of those scenarios comes to fruition.
Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your bracket, including other predictions for the South, Midwest, and West regions.
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West Region Favorites
(1) North Carolina (27-7)
The Tarheels lost to three unranked teams in conference play, another in Villanova, and one more in the ACC Tournament Championship (North Carolina State). Every time this team looked elite, they took a step back. They are the weakest top seed and many have argued that this should have been Iowa State's for winning the Big 12 Tournament in dominating fashion. This is redemption for the Tar Heels, who were the preseason number one in 2022-23 and missed the NCAA Tournament.
(2) Arizona (25-8)
If you ask a Tar Heel fan -- any Tar Heel fan -- what was wrong with the 2022-23 team, you're going to get the same answer: Caleb Love. Putting all of that failure on Love is unfair and you know he hears it. You also know how much Arizona wants to get these guys in the regional final. Who says the committee doesn't have a sense of humor?
Calling it now: I hope Caleb Love hangs 30 on our heads in the Elite 8 so that all the “fans” who bullied him to another team can finally see his worth
— #1 Ball Knower (@jonahlarsen23) March 18, 2024
You can point to the same things that Carolina fans point to with Arizona this year. The inexplicable loss to Oregon State. Losing to Wazzu at home. Getting beaten up by Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament. Is that all Caleb Love's fault? If you're a reasonable basketball fan, absolutely not. If you want to blame Caleb Love for something, blame him for Arizona averaging the third-most points per game this season (87.9).
rj davis vs. caleb love in the west region final pic.twitter.com/E5Z3IsKOK4
— marsalis (@Marsa1is) March 17, 2024
(3) Baylor (23-10)
They had a rough go in the Garden in November and lost a triple-overtime heartbreaker to TCU in Waco (that might have vaulted TCU into the NCAA Tournament). The only other home loss was to Houston. The bad news is that their worst two losses since November have come in March. They lost by double figures in Lubbock and to Iowa State in Kansas City. That didn't affect their seeding and Baylor got a solid draw.
(4) Alabama (21-11)
If you look back at Alabama's losses this year -- Ohio State, Clemson, Creighton, Arizona, Purdue, Tennessee twice, Auburn, Kentucky, and Florida twice, there is a prevalent theme. All of those teams except Kentucky are huge. Alabama leads the country with 90.8 points per game. If you let them get out and run, they can beat anyone not named Florida. Everyone else has had to slow them down.
West Region Fatal Flaws
All teams have one or two things that could keep them from reaching their full potential. Here we will run the gamut of the main things that will hold teams in this region back.
North Carolina: Nothing bad stands out about the Tar Heels. The metrics are so glowing they may as well be radioactive. This is a team that does everything well, yet managed to lose to Clemson, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Villanova, and North Carolina State. Much like last year, they don't always show up. That's their flaw.
Arizona: I spent the last section defending Caleb Love. Now I'm going to say what needs to be said. When Arizona is behind, he takes way too many bad shots. Sometimes Arizona gets lucky like the first game against UCLA. Sometimes they wind up like the Washington State games where Love shot a combined 18-for-45.
Baylor: Baylor is usually strong on the boards, but most of their losses can be traced back to being dominated on the boards. They need to rebound well in order to win.
Alabama: The emergence of Nick Pringle has helped, but Alabama is styled more like an NBA team. That's not good for college. College teams still need a true big man, or at least a hybrid one. Alabama's lack of depth up front is a problem, and why those huge teams beat them.
St. Mary's: Free throw shooting. The Gaels are 314th in the country with a 67.8% success rate from the foul line.
Clemson: They really have more than one, but the most glaring is they aren't disruptors. This team doesn't get a lot of turnovers. They are 346th in the country with 4.5 steals per game.
Dayton: Rebounding. The Flyers are 275th in the country in rebounds and even worse (322nd) in offensive boards.
Mississippi State: Three-point shooting. The Bulldogs only shoot 32.5% from beyond the arc, bad enough for 264th in the country.
West Region Ceilings
We know the floor of every team, right? They can all lose in the first round. Top overall seed Virginia lost on the first day of the tournament in 2017. In this section, we'll explore the realistic ceiling of every team in the bracket.
North Carolina: The Tar Heels got a better draw than UConn, the top overall seed, did. Sure, playing a regional across the country sucks, but when you get a favorable draw like this, the ceiling is very high. Like cutting down the nets in Phoenix high.
Arizona: Their offense will keep them in every game. The defense is sometimes a paper tiger. The problem with teams like this is that they are really hard to predict. Arizona is good enough to make a six-game tournament run and win the title, but as I have done every season, I will pick them to lose before the regional final. 1997 and 2001 were the only years where that bit me.
Baylor: The metrics love the Bears, but they have a significant roadblock in Clemson if that's their second-round matchup. The Tigers are enormous up front. The good news is that their rebounds don't jump off the page. If Baylor makes it past Clemson, a run to the Elite Eight is possible.
Alabama: When you can score like Alabama can, the sky is the limit. I don't like the potential second-round matchup with either St. Mary's or Grand Canyon. If they make it past that, the Tide could wind up in Phoenix.
St. Mary's: The Gaels started the season 3-5 and lost to Missouri State in December. The emergence of Augustas Marciulionis has made them a different team, but they got a terrible draw. Even if they do manage to get past a very good Grand Canyon team -- the Lopes beat a San Diego State team that St. Mary's lost by 25 to -- they're not getting past Bama.
Clemson: Clemson got jobbed last year by not making the tournament. This year they made the tournament but got stuck in a strong pocket. New Mexico only has one bad loss, can score almost at will, and is strong on the glass. I'll be surprised if Clemson makes it past New Mexico. I'll be shocked if they make it out of Memphis.
Dayton: Nevada is going to be a tough out for the Flyers, but if they get out of that, I could see a run to the regional final. This is the best Dayton team since the Obi Toppin led 2019-20 squad that got COVIDed.
Mississippi State: Josh Hubbard and Tolu Smith make this team dangerous, but a team that lost five of their last seven games is not a team that will go on a deep tournament run. They might win one game, but they're not taking out Carolina.
Michigan State: Tom Izzo teams are dangerous in March. Sparty has also lost five of their last seven, but they are a team that could take down Carolina. They are built a lot like Syracuse with a legendary coach. Blue-blood programs take out number-one seeds in the second round all the time, but that's Sparty's ceiling. Worse matchups loom after that.
Nevada: Much like Drake in Omaha, Nevada is fairly close to Salt Lake City. The crowd could push them past Dayton, but they don't match up well with Arizona.
New Mexico: The Lobos are the most dangerous 11 seed. Jamal Mashburn Jr. hasn't had a great season, but freshman JT Toppin can take over a game. I could see the Lobos running out of Memphis and into the Sweet Sixteen.
Grand Canyon: The Lopes can frustrate teams, meaning they could frustrate and take down the Heels. Or they could wind up buried like waste in a litterbox. We're all about ceilings here, and Grand Canyon is capable of making a deep run. The Elite Eight would be the ceiling.
Charleston: The Cougars get an impossible draw in Alabama. This is a terrible matchup for them.
Colgate: The Raiders nearly beat Syracuse and hung with Illinois for a half. They are a good three-point shooting team, but Baylor defends the perimeter well. I don't see an upset here.
Long Beach State: Life's a beach! The Beach beat Michigan and scared San Diego State in November. They won't beat Arizona because this team does not shoot well from any range.
Howard/Wagner: Carolina may be complacent at times, but they aren't this complacent. But hey, one of these teams can claim an NCAA Tournament win!
Most Intriguing First-Round Matchup
No. 5 St. Mary's vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon
The Lopes don't fit the mold of the regular Cinderella team. They aren't great from beyond the arc. They are built more for bully ball. This team is strong on the boards and does their damage with defense. That's exactly what St. Mary's does. The difference here is that Grand Canyon has a star in Tyon Grant-Foster. The Gaels don't have that star power. Can one superstar make a difference, or will the entire St. Mary's team rally for the win?
Bust of the West Region
Arizona has a relatively easy pod, but I don't think they make it to the second Saturday of the tournament. Alabama, Baylor, or Clemson will all give them fits. I know everyone wants to see Caleb Love against his former team, but I doubt that happens.
Dark Horse Play
There might be more than one. I ultimately think the Lopes come up short even if they knock off the Gaels, but New Mexico and Dayton are very dangerous teams. Did I mention Tom Izzo's teams in March? I'll go with Dayton. I don't like the Nevada matchup, but this is a team that could bag Arizona.
West Regional Picks
First round: North Carolina, Michigan State, Grand Canyon, Alabama, New Mexico, Baylor, Dayton, Arizona
Second round: North Carolina, Alabama, Baylor, Dayton
Regional semifinal: Alabama, Baylor
Regional champion: Baylor is a young team that is coming together at the right time. It also means that they still have mishaps that young teams do. Alabama has their flaws, but they are a team built to make a tournament run. No team in this bracket has a dominant big man, so Alabama shouldn't get exposed until later in the tournament...perhaps much later.
More March Madness Analysis
