Week 5 Fantasy Football Matchups We Love: The Fantasy Matchmaker

Welcome to Week 5 of my weekly article series for RotoBaller, The Fantasy Matchmaker. In this series, I am looking at fantasy football matchups as each week of the 2023 NFL season approaches and giving you some players whose matchups I love based on their opponent’s strength (or weakness) versus that position.

My strength of schedule scoring entering Week 5 includes what each team has given up in Weeks 1-4 (including the average). I also incorporate “opponent-adjusted” data, looking at what teams are giving up compared to what that opponent scores on average at each position. For example, when comparing raw fantasy points allowed per game and opponent-adjusted fantasy points allowed per game, one of the biggest discrepancies is the Patriots versus RBs. The Patriots are ranked 17^th versus RBs in raw fantasy PPG allowed. But they are ranked as the third-toughest RB matchup when adjusting for opponents faced. So, while they have given up a fair amount of fantasy points to the position, they have held the opposing team’s RB groups well under those groups’ average PPG, and average of -8.6 points below average. Now, in my process, the answer lies somewhere in the middle, with NE currently ranked as the ninth-toughest RB matchup.

RotoBaller generates overall player rankings (all positions) for Points Per Reception (PPR), half PPR, and Standard (no PPR) each week. As I show matchups for each position, I will break that overall rankings list down further into rankings within each position (e.g., QB1, QB2, QB3, RB1, RB2, RB3, etc.). The idea is to show each relevant skill position player’s matchup and positional rank for that week. Each table will be filtered based on the positional rankings. I encourage you to check out the RotoBaller Week 5 ranks, available here.

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Fantasy Football Quarterback Matchups

The following shows the projected matchup strength for the QB position in Week 5. The table includes the QB, the QB Week 5 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), the opponent, and the opponent’s projected rank versus fantasy QBs according to my scoring system. The table is filtered in the same order as the Rotoballer positional rankings.

The additional data points I am including for QBs are the projected point totals in each game, the spread, and the implied total points for the QB’s team (all from FanDuel.com).

 

Week 5: QB Matchups We Love

Sam Howell (QB13)

Howell faces the Bears in Week 5, a matchup I love, to say the least. The Bears are ranked 28^th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the QB position, and even that might be generous. On average, the Bears have allowed their QB opponents to score 2.4 PPG above their season average, leading to the following performances against them:

• Week 1: Jordan Love, 23.0 fantasy points (QB3)
• Week 2: Baker Mayfield, 18.4 fantasy points (QB18)
• Week 3: Patrick Mahomes, 25.7 fantasy points (QB5)
• Week 4: Russell Wilson, 22.2 fantasy points (QB9)

The Commanders-Bears game currently has an over-under of 44.5 which is fairly average, but as a home favorite (-5.5 spread), the Commanders have an implied team total of 27.8 points, which is the fifth-highest on the week. With an ESPN rostership of only 13.3% after Week 5 waivers have run, Howell is a good streaming target with Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, Deshaun Watson, and Baker Mayfield on bye.

Back in Week 2, Sam Howell put up the best game in his young NFL career. He completed 27 of 39 passes (69.2%) for 299 yards and two TDs. A 108.8 QB rating is his highest on the season and finished as the QB14 with 21.3 fantasy points. Why am I bringing up Week 2? It’s because I would rather call Week 4 Howell’s best career game even though he scored fewer fantasy points (19.6; tied for QB12). His QB rating was slightly lower at 98.6 and he only threw one TD pass. But he completed 70% of his passes for 290 yards, rushed for 40 yards on six carries, and did not turn the ball over.

In Week 2, Howell faced the softest QB matchup in the league versus the Broncos. In Week 4, Howell faced the Eagles. The Eagles are not a defensive juggernaut versus the pass so far this season. They are currently ranked 24^th, even with that fantasy-friendly ranking, they are a much tougher matchup than the Broncos. The other piece of context is the game sandwiched in between these two in Week 3. Howell had one of those implosion games against the league’s toughest QB matchup, throwing four interceptions and finishing with a QB Rating under 50. The simple fact that Howell (and the entire Commanders team) turned around and gave the undefeated, division rival Eagles everything they could handle in a close loss is a promising development. The Jacoby Brissett talk (Commanders’ backup QB) is quieted for now, and Howell

Joshua Dobbs (QB18)

Dobbs faces the 23^rd-ranked Bengals at home in Week 5, another matchup I am fond of. The Bengals have been disappointing on both sides of the ball this season. They are bottom-half in the league in (real NFL) points allowed, pressure rate, and turnover rate. They do have 12 interceptions on the year, which is tied for fifth-highest, but they have not been a bad QB matchup. Dobbs has been a weapon on the ground, and the Bengals have allowed an average of six carries for 29.3 rushing yards per game, including a game versus Matthew Stafford, and a rushing TD to Deshaun Watson in Week 1. The Cardinals’ implied team total of 19.3 points is on the lower end, but with the way the Cardinals and Dobbs have been playing lately, I am taking the over on that number.

Joshua Dobbs appreciation highlights pic.twitter.com/GaTEKDaKji

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 20, 2023

On the opposite end of the spectrum from Joe Burrow and the Bengals, Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise in fantasy football this year. Acquired from the Browns in what seemed like moments before the regular season started, Dobbs took the starting job in Arizona immediately. He has made the Cardinals look like a somewhat competent NFL team, which was not the expectation, including a huge upset win against the Cowboys. Over the last three weeks, Dobbs is the overall QB6, averaging 21.9 PPG. In that same span, Dobbs has averaged seven rushes for 48 yards per game, completed 70.7% of his passes (31 pass attempts per game), and turned the ball over zero times. In two-QB formats, Dobbs should already be rostered, but if you are streaming in a one-QB league, Dobbs’ ESPN rostership is at 19.5%. That includes one of the biggest jumps in rostership during Week 5 waivers at +18.3%.

 

Week 5: Not Great, Bob – QBs to Avoid

Trevor Lawrence (QB10)

In my eyes, Lawrence entered the 2023 season as a “set it and forget it” QB, consistently ranked in the Top 8 fantasy QBs. My tune has changed with some inconsistent play from Lawerence (and the Jaguars offense in general) and a Week 5 matchup I am avoiding against the number one-ranked Bills. The Bills have held opposing QBs to an average of 7.3 points below their season number, and have yet to surrender multiple passing TDs in a game. They have not faced a QB gauntlet by any means (Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Howell, and Tua Tagovailoa) outside of the Dolphins, but they have done what dominant pass defenses do. The Bills are second in (real NFL) points allowed per game (13.8), first in interception rate (by a wide margin), tied for first in sacks, and first in turnover rate. This game has a relatively high over-under, but the Jaguars’ implied team total is under 20. I am likely starting both of the QBs discussed above over Lawerence in Week 5.

Russell Wilson (QB20)

Wilson’s game seems quietly revitalized this season. Entering Week 5, Wilson is the QB9 on the season at 19.9 PPG. This implies Wilson’s matchup is accounted for in his low-end QB2 rank. Denver’s Week 5 opponent (Jets) is currently ranked as the 10^th-toughest matchup for fantasy QBs and just held Mahomes to his lowest point total since Week 13 of the 2021 season (not counting Week 18 of 2022) and held Josh Allen under 10 points in Week 1. The Jets are fifth in interception rate and eighth in pressure rate and have held opposing QBs 3.5 fantasy points below their season average. Being ranked 10^th may be too low, and it should improve as I think they will shut down Wilson in Week 5.

As an addition to this week’s edition, here is a four-week look-ahead at each team’s opponents, color-coded to indicate matchup strength versus fantasy QBs:

 

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Matchups

The following WR table shows the Top 80 WRs for Week 5 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy WRs.

 

Week 5: WR Matchups We Love

Zay Flowers (WR23)

Flowers and the Ravens face their division rival in Pittsburgh this week, a WR matchup I love. The Steelers check in as the second-easiest WR matchup. This rank is inflated a bit after Davante Adams’ monster game in Week 2, but the Steelers have allowed WR groups to score above their season average in every game this season.

The Steelers have been a feisty defense with turnovers, pressure rate, and sacks, but the position group they have been toughest on are RBs and TEs. The over-under on this game is the lowest of any game at 38.5, and it is shaping up to be a typical AFC North dogfight, but Flowers has (by far) been the most targeted WR by Lamar Jackson. It has been inconsistent, as is common with rookies. Flowers has two games with 10 targets and a target share above 30% and two games with five or fewer targets. The way to beat the Steelers is through the air, and the successful connection between Jackson and Flowers should continue this week.

Rashee Rice (WR41)

Chiefs’ rookie WR Rashee Rice has a fantastic matchup against the 28^th-ranked Vikings this week. This is another defense that gave up one monster game (Keenan Allen) that does impact their matchup strength rank, but they have not been a good pass defense. They are bottom half in PPG allowed, interception rate, pressure rate, sacks, and turnover rate, and Mahomes will be out for blood after his poor showing in Week 4. This game has the highest over-under on the week of 53.5 points, with the Chiefs’ implied total points above 30. In other words, we likely have a shoot-out on our hands.

None of the Chiefs’ WRs have stepped up thus far to be “the guy,” and I think Rice does and I think he does it this week. Travis Kelce will dominate the targets in Kansas City as long as he’s on the team, but Rice has been the most targeted WR over the last two weeks, with target shares of 18.9% and 17.2%, respectively. He has seen the field more often with a snap share near 50% over the last two weeks, and his targets per route run (TPRR) have been impressive. Rice is trending in the right direction just as he faces one of the friendliest WR matchups in the NFL. I am not suggesting anything cute, like starting him over a Top 24 guy. But in leagues with three WRs or multiple flexes, I am firing Rice up in Week 5.

2023 WR/TE Leaders by XFP per Route Run

+ Rashee Rice 👀
+ Jake Ferguson could be an easy mid-range TE1 if he ever gets a Dalton Schultz-like route share
+ Zay Jones will be an issue for Christian Kirk / Calvin Ridley when he gets back
+ Hollywood Brown a surprise in the top-15 pic.twitter.com/hKRZhq7TM9

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 5, 2023

 

Week 5: Not Great, Bob – WRs to Avoid

Courtland Sutton (WR32)

Sutton faces the second-toughest WR matchup against the Jets in Week 5, and I am avoiding him at his high-end WR3/flex rank. I discussed the Jets versus fantasy QBs above, but they have been even more stifling against WRs. They have held opposing WR groups 9.9 PPG under their season average, which is tied for second, behind only the Browns (-10.9), and that includes games against the Bills and Cowboys. Sutton’s target share has been on a downward trend the last two games, and he was only able to finish as the WR32 against the much softer matchup with the Bears in Week 4. I am avoiding all Broncos pass-catchers this week.

Calvin Ridley (WR14)

This one could bite me, as a player with Ridley’s talent won’t be held down forever. But it’s been bad lately with Ridley and he faces one of the toughest matchups for WRs against the Bills in Week 5. I mentioned in the Sutton write-up that the Jets are tied for second in holding opposing WRs below their average. Who are they tied with? Well, it kind of has to be the Bills now, right? It’s the Bills. And the Bills have done that against Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, and Tyreek Hill over the last three weeks. I am hesitant to start any Jaguars pass-catcher this week, but I would rather play Christian Kirk, as the quicker-release, shorter passes the Bills likely induce favor Kirk’s role over Ridley’s. Even in a good matchup, I would think twice before starting Ridley. After his Week 1 explosion, it has been a drastic downhill journey. His targets in each game have gone 11-8-7-2, with a TD salvaging his fantasy day in Week 4.

Here is a four-week look-ahead at each team’s opponents, color-coded to indicate matchup strength versus fantasy WRs:

Fantasy Football Running Back Matchups

The following RB table shows the Top 60 RBs for Week 5 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy RBs.

 

Week 5: RB Matchups We Love

Breece Hall (RB16)

I think this is a week Breece Hall goes off. No, I don’t think he is fully back from his injury, but he has regained the straight-line speed that could turn any of his touches into a house call. Hall gets the best possible RB matchup against the Broncos, a team that gave up over 100 fantasy points to the RB position in Week 3 versus the Dolphins. One hundred fantasy points. That is not going to happen for the Jets, but Hall’s snap share has been creeping up, while Dalvin Cook’s has been headed down. Hall still has not hit a 50% snap share or rushed more than 12 times in a game. Two things: I think that changes this week and, even if it doesn’t, 10-13 touches is enough to do serious damage against the Broncos.

Week 5 was my guess when Jets would unleash Breece Hall. Great timing.

Broncos defense PPR fantasy points allowed to RBs since Week 2
🔹Brian Robinson 26.9
🔹De’Von Achane 51.3
🔹Raheem Mostert 45.2
🔹Khalil Herbert 22.2

They stink

It’s Breece Hall weekpic.twitter.com/YiyToCVQQy

— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) October 3, 2023

Aaron Jones (RB14)

There are not a lot of player-matchup combos I love for RBs so I am keeping this in the Top 20. You are starting Aaron Jones so this is more about providing reason to be confident in that decision. Jones is another game removed from the injury that sidelined him earlier in the season and gets a great matchup with the 23^rd-ranked Raiders. The Raiders have been slightly improved as of late, holding their last two RB groups below their season average. But that was against the Steelers and the Ekeler-less Chargers so I am not allowing that to move me off loving this matchup for Jones. AJ Dillon has done absolutely nothing in 2023, with or without Jones suited up, and Jones should be heavily featured as the Packers try to get back on the winning side of things.

 

Week 5: Not Great Bob, RBs to Avoid

Dameon Pierce (RB20)

This isn’t Pierce’s first appearance in this article, but I am listing him more to spotlight who I have as the toughest RB matchup. It’s the Falcons. Yes, the Atlanta Falcons. Over the last three games, the Falcons have held opposing RB groups (Packers, Lions, Jaguars) 12.8 PPG under their season average. They have held opponents under 100 rushing yards per game, and have not given up a TD to an RB, on the ground or through the air. This is an interesting game because the Falcons’ defense has been much better than we thought, and so has the Texans’ offense. Something has to give in Week 5, but I think it comes through the air for the Texans.

Miles Sanders (RB28)

I have a similar purpose here. Sanders faces the third-toughest RB matchup according to my scoring system. It’s the Lions. Yes, the Detroit Lions. The Lions have allowed 74.6 yards per game to RBs. That’s total yards, rushing, and receiving. They are second to only the 49ers in rushing yards allowed per game (45.3), and also second, behind only the Seahawks, in yards per carry allowed per game (2.9). The Lions pass-run ratio allowed is 63%-27%. The only teams being run on less than the Lions are the 49ers, Eagles, Ravens, and Buccaneers. Now, whether they look good against opposing RBs because teams choose to pass against them, or teams choose to pass against them because of how tough they are against the run, doesn’t matter. The per-game averages they allow tell me it’s the latter. Either way, Miles Sanders is an RB I am avoiding this week.

 

RB Points From Receiving (PFR)

I am also introducing another layer of RB matchup strength. Something I have been compiling and tracking since 2020 is RB points scored from receiving output only (PFR). I generate ranks for matchup strength for RB PFR as there can be opponents that look daunting from an overall RB points allowed standpoint, but that opponent may have a weak spot versus pass-catching RBs. The following chart shows each team’s adjusted fantasy points allowed rank versus RBs compared to their rank versus RB PFR. I include the difference so you can see which opponents are stout versus the RB position in general but have given up points to RBs through the air (e.g., PHI, SF), and vice versa (e.g., CAR, NYG). And some teams are just terrible against both (e.g., ARI, CHI, DEN).

These are some RBs who look to have tough matchups, but the combination of their pass-catching abilities and their opponent’s PFR rank paint a brighter picture of their outlook:

• Tony Pollard: You are starting him, but the 49ers have been a relatively tough matchup for RBs, at least on the ground. The 49ers rank 28^th in adjusted fantasy points allowed via RB PFR.
• Kyren Williams: The Eagles are the 6^th-toughest RB matchup but rank 25^th against RB PFR.
• Jaylen Warren: The Ravens are the 14^th-ranked RB matchup but rank 24^th against RB PFR.

These are some RBs who look to have good matchups, but their opponent has been stingy against RB receiving output:

• De’Von Achane: Achane is a must-start and doesn’t necessarily need receiving volume for a successful fantasy day. But the Giants rank as the second-toughest matchup for RB PFR.
• Jahmyr Gibbs: The Panthers are one of the better matchups for fantasy RBs, but not through the air, as they rank in the Top 10 versus RB PFR.
• Kenneth Gainwell: The Rams are already a Top 10 toughest matchup for fantasy RBs, but they have been the best at stopping RB PFR.

Here is a four-week look-ahead at each team’s opponents, color-coded to indicate matchup strength versus fantasy RBs:

 

Fantasy Football Tight End Matchups

The following TE table shows the Top 30 TEs for Week 5 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy TEs.

 

Week 5: TE Matchups We Love

Dalton Schultz (TE14)

Schultz found the endzone in Week 4, which was likely only a good thing in best ball formats. But it was a pass thrown by Devin Singletary. And he only saw three targets and a season-low 49% snap share. But he is in a good situation in Week 5. I discussed the Falcons’ defense at length above, and how while they have been tough against both RBs and WRs, the Texans will need to beat them through the air.

The Falcons are 17^th versus fantasy QBs, but their one glaring defensive weak spot has been against TEs. While they are the toughest RB matchup, they are the most fantasy-friendly TE matchup. Arthur Smith and the Falcons likely try to slow this game down and grind it out with clock-killing groundwork, but CJ Stroud has already been cut loose to throw it and throw it a lot. Not many fantasy-relevant TEs are on bye this week (sorry Cade Otton, Noah Fant, David Njoku, and Gerald Everett, but it’s true), so Schultz is a risk. But, based on his matchup he is a decent option if you’re stuck.

 

Week 5: Not Great Bob, TEs to Avoid

Cole Kmet (TE16)

I am on the same page with the RotoBaller rankers with Kmet. I am not going to let his 85-yard, two-TD game against the lowly Broncos coax me into starting him, especially against the Ravens, ranked as the most difficult matchup for fantasy TEs.

Here is a four-week look-ahead at each team’s opponents, color-coded to indicate matchup strength versus fantasy TEs:

I will finish with my “Postmortems,” looking back across each position at my Week 4 loves and “not great, Bobs” to see how I did.

 

Last Week's Postmortems

I am fine with being wrong about things, especially when it comes to fantasy football, where most of us are wrong more often than we are right. So, each new week, I will include a post-mortem of the previous week’s likes and dislikes. I will subjectively judge myself based on the results of the previous week, with my take either being a “HIT” or a “MISS,” or in some cases a “PUSH.”

Week 4 QB Matchups I Loved

Daniel Jones

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: QB12
• Week 4 Matchup: SEA (Rank: 22^nd)
• Week 4 Finish: QB24 (10.7 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Jimmy Garoppolo

• Did not play (concussion)
• Verdict: N/A

Week 4 QB Matchups I Avoided

Dak Prescott

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: QB18
• Week 4 Matchup: NE (Rank: 5^th)
• Week 4 Finish: QB19 (14.3 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Baker Mayfield

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: QB24
• Week 4 Matchup: NO (Rank: 6^th)
• Week 4 Finish: QB7 (23.9 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 4 QB Hit Rate: 33% (1-2)

Week 4 WR Matchups I Loved

Jakobi Meyers

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: WR33
• Week 4 Matchup: LAC (Rank: 29^th)
• Week 4 Finish: WR66 (4.3 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Tutu Atwell

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: WR36
• Week 4 Matchup: IND (Rank: 30^th)
• Week 4 Finish: WR57 (4.9 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 4 WR Matchups I Avoided

Garrett Wilson

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: WR27
• Week 4 Matchup: KC (Rank: 4^th)
• Week 4 Finish: WR30 (10.5 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Gabe Davis

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: WR24
• Week 4 Matchup: MIA (Rank: 12^th)
• Week 4 Finish: WR14 (13.6 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 4 WR Hit Rate: 25% (1-3)

Week 4 RB Matchups I Loved

Roschon Johnson

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: RB36
• Week 4 Matchup: DEN (Rank: 27^th)
• Week 4 Finish: RB62 (2.0 points)
• Verdict: Miss

Jahmyr Gibbs

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: RB17
• Week 4 Matchup: GB (Rank: 25^th)
• Week 4 Finish: RB29 (7.1 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 4 RB Matchups I Avoided

Ezekiel Elliott

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: RB41
• Week 4 Matchup: DAL (Rank: 1^st)
• Week 4 Finish: RB50 (3.2 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Rachaad White

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: RB29
• Week 4 Matchup: NO (Rank: 8^th)
• Week 4 Finish: RB20 (9.3 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 4 RB Hit Rate: 25% (1-3)

Week 4 TE Matchups I Loved

Gerald Everett

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: TE17
• Week 4 Matchup: LV (Rank: 28^th)
• Week 4 Finish: TE37 (1.9 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Dalton Kincaid

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: TE11
• Week 4 Matchup: MIA (Rank: 32^nd)
• Week 4 Finish: TE24 (4.7 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 4 TE Matchups I Avoided

David Njoku

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: TE16
• Week 4 Matchup: BAL (Rank: 1^st)
• Week 4 Finish: TE16 (7.6 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Dallas Goedert

• Week 4 RotoBaller Rank: TE8
• Week 4 Matchup: WAS (Rank: 15^th)
• Week 4 Finish: TE28 (3.5 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Week 4 TE Hit Rate: 50% (2-2)

 

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on Twitter (@MunderDifflinFF).

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