RADIO
We're nearing the point of the season when we start to separate the weekly busts from the season-long disappointments.
As I always say (even writing it in this column last week), twice is a coincidence but three times is a trend. Some players could bust for a third straight week. Others could come crashing down after a solid Week 2.
With that being said, below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players that may disappoint, for Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season. Good luck, RotoBallers!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR) vs. San Francisco
Kyren Williams is healthy and the best offensive weapon standing in Los Angeles. That's the problem. While the coaching staff may lean on the run more, the offense as a whole could be a disaster.
Let's run through the injuries: Wide receiver Puka Nacua (knee) is on injured reserve. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp (ankle) will be out for a few weeks. Starting center Steve Avila (knee) is on injured reserve. Starting guard Jonah Jackson (shoulder) is also on injured reserve. Reserve tackle Joe Noteboom (ankle) is also, also on injured reserve. Tight end Tyler Higbee (knee) is on the PUP list.
To recap, that's the Rams' best receivers, two starting offensive linemen, and a longtime tight end who picked up the receiving slack when called upon.
Even with Kupp last week, the offense looked inept. Williams salvaged his day with a touchdown late in the third quarter. It was the only touchdown of the day for the Rams against an Arizona defense that couldn't slow down Buffalo the week prior.
Kyren Williams has averaged
2.78
2.08Yards per carry his opening weeks
I see a lot of people ripping other RBs for their lack of efficiency but are quiet to this
— Skrip (@P2WFantasy) September 18, 2024
In Week 3, they draw San Francisco, a defense better against the run than it is against the pass. The cornerbacks won't struggle to contain Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson. The focus will be on slowing down Williams.
Aaron Jones (RB, MIN) vs. Houston
Gone are the days of the Texans rush defense getting roasted by the likes of Derrick Henry. Houston has allowed 75 rushing yards through two games on 2.27 yards per attempt. D'Andre Swift brought the average down with 18 yards on 14 carries in Week 2. But Jonathan Taylor's 48 yards on 16 carries wasn't spectacular, either.
Aaron Jones is the next victim for Houston's front seven. It was easy for him to rack up yardage against the Giants. The going was much tougher against San Francisco.
The backup, Ty Chandler, is getting double-digit opportunities per game. That number could tick up in Week 3. Jones was banged up in the win over San Francisco. Although he's practicing in full, the Vikings coaching staff could take some work off his plate to keep him healthy and fresh moving forward.
Devin Singletary (RB, NYG) at Cleveland
Devin Singletary can be called upon in great matchups. That was on display last week to the tune of 95 rushing yards and a touchdown on 16 carries against Washington. The alternative was the case in Week 1; 10 carries for 37 yards and four catches for 15 yards.
A trip to Cleveland is not one of the great matchups. Ezekiel Elliott totaled 49 yards in Week 1. Travis Etienne Jr. finished with 58 yards in Week 2. They both scored, rescuing a mediocre stat line.
That's where Singletary lands in Week 3: Touchdown or bust. If he happens to fall in the end zone, he'll end up in the flex range. Fantasy managers shouldn't bank on that. The Giants' offensive attack is targeting Malik Nabers 100 times. The Browns have the defensive talent to take him out of the game.
Malik Nabers accounted for 18 of the Giants 27 targets on Sunday.
That is the HIGHEST (66.7%) target share by any player in a game in 9 years. pic.twitter.com/0oWDpvq5P2
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 16, 2024
The Giants mustered six points in Week 1 against the Vikings. They have an implied point total of 16 this weekend. The Giants may not score any touchdowns on Sunday.
Najee Harris (RB, PIT) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Are you ready to witness one of the fastest NFL games of the season? The Steelers lead the NFL in rush attempts per game (38.5). The Chargers call a run on 59% of their plays. We may as well have a running clock.
highest % of total yardage from runs:
59.4% - LAC
59.2% - NE
53.4% - PIT
53.2% - GB
49.6% - TEN
48.8% - WAS
46.8% - ARI
45.6% - NO
43.9% - CHI
43.2% - JAX#1 Chargers play #3 Steelers on Sunday
preview this run-heavy matchup:https://t.co/7CpSYzudmf
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 18, 2024
Najee Harris is and will continue to be the lead runner for the Steelers but he doesn't get the high-value touches. Through two games, the Steelers have one touchdown and four drives that reached their opponent's red zone (one of which started in the red zone after an interception).
Jaylen Warren got more involved in Week 2 and out-snapped Harris (32 to 30). He's the third-down back (11 of 13 snaps) and subsequently catches the passes out of the backfield. Harris has one catch in each game in 2024. The Chargers have allowed the third-most catches to running backs this season.
So, despite respectable totals on the ground (70 and 69, respectively) in his games, Harris hasn't topped double-digit PPR points. Expect that trend to continue in Week 3.
Mike Evans (WR, TB) vs. Denver
Until proven otherwise, the top receiver against Pat Surtain II will be listed in this column.
Week 2 Shadow Report from @FantasyPtsData
- DK cooked Christian Gonzalez
- Rookies Kamari Lassiter and Terrion Arnold got some shadow experience and held up
- Pat Surtain and Joey Porter are playing like the only true shadow shutdown corners in the NFL pic.twitter.com/dVWcKmgdBB— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) September 17, 2024
This will be the first Surtain vs. Evans matchup of their careers. In Week 1, Surtain held DK Metcalf to three catches for 29 yards. In Week 2, George Pickens caught two passes for 29 yards. Overall, the Broncos defense is surrendering 134 passing yards per game.
Evans has a history of performing disappearing acts throughout his career. Remember the feud with Marshon Lattimore? The Saints cornerback blanketed Evans on several occasions.
The game script could work against Evans as well. The Buccaneers are 6.5-point home favorites and should have no problem stopping a Denver offense averaging 13 points per game.
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR, JAX) at Buffalo
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense is broken. Evan Engram is out of the lineup with a hamstring injury and Christian Kirk is invisible. He recorded negative yardage in Week 2 with Engram sidelined. Trevor Lawrence and Co. are 28th in time of possession and third-down conversion rate. Travis Etienne Jr. averages under four yards per carry on just 25 carries.
The lone bright spot has been rookie Brian Thomas Jr. The 21-year-old scored on four catches in his debut in Miami and followed it up with two catches for 94 yards against Cleveland.
Volume is a concern. Thomas has four targets in each of the first two contests. He's done well in fantasy on long receptions and winning in the red zone. Don't rely on that against Buffalo.
Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford have been great thru 2 weeks. Eliminating big play receivers.
Marvin Harrison Jr 1 rec, 4 yds
Tyreek Hill 3 rec, 24 yds
Jaylen Waddle 4 rec, 41 ydsThose receivers numbers the other week of the season
Harrison Jr 4 rec, 130 yds, 2 TD… pic.twitter.com/CZBfXhiWFf
— Josh Reed (@4JoshReed) September 18, 2024
Sean McDermott's Bills have been routinely strong against deep passes. Even with two new starting safeties in the secondary, the strategy remains the same.
The Bills have allowed the fewest yards to receivers (139) through two games. They only trail Seattle in yards per reception to the position. Marvin Harrison Jr. had one catch for four yards against Buffalo. Tyreek Hill followed that with three for 24.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND) vs. Chicago
One more bad performance and Michael Pittman Jr. is relegated to a potential season-long bust and won't appear in this column until proven otherwise. The odds are stacked against him in Week 3.
Pittman has caught less than half of his 15 targets as Anthony Richardson struggles with accuracy and decision-making. The quarterback is completing fewer than 50% of his passes.
AD Mitchell wide open with the comeback route. Anthony Richardson throws to the extremely covered Michael Pittman Jr. next to him instead pic.twitter.com/Ogs6lkR0qT
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 15, 2024
By target share, Pittman is still the top receiver in Indianapolis. However, he's been outplayed by Alec Pierce. The latter has eight receptions to Pittman's seven and more than tripled Pittman's 52 yards. He also has two of the Colts' three receiving touchdowns.
Josh Downs, who by all accounts was having a phenomenal training camp, is returning to the lineup in Week 3. He's been out since mid-August due to a high-ankle sprain. He's not projected to do a ton in his debut, but his presence will dilute the target share.
All of that and we haven't even gotten to the matchup yet. The Bears got burnt by Nico Collins (8-135-1) but were great against Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, and Calvin Ridley. Chicago's defense will cause problems for the Indianapolis passing attack.
Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC) at Pittsburgh
Quentin Johnston, welcome back to relevancy. The dropped game-winner in Green Bay and lack of targets (despite being the only healthy Chargers receiver) from last season seems like a distant memory.
The former first-round pick doubled his career touchdown total in Week 2 against the Carolina Panthers. Joshua Palmer isn't healthy or producing, Ladd McConkey is a rookie, and D.J. Chark is on injured reserve. That made Johnston a popular waiver-wire addition.
A bench piece is all he should be this week. The Steelers kept Drake London, Courtland Sutton, and all other opposing receivers out of the end zone thus far in the young season. The Chargers (as stated above) are extremely committed to the run. The Steelers won't score enough points to make the Chargers deviate from their game plan.
Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA) at Seattle
Let's go with the obvious, low-hanging fruit. Jaylen Waddle with Skylar Thompson under center is nerve-racking.
In eight regular-season games without Tua Tagovailoa, Waddle averages 56.6 yards on over five catches per game. It's not third-round draft capital but it's not bad!
Las Vegas doesn't think Waddle will reach those marks. The books set his lines at 3.5 receptions and 44.5 yards. For comparison, he was in the mid-60s in Weeks 1 and 2. In his career, Waddle averages about 15 PPR points with Tagovailoa. That drops to 10 without the Dolphins franchise quarterback.
The Skylar Thompson effect:
Props:
Tyreek Hill: 66.5 Rec YDS (90+ in Week 2)
Jaylen Waddle: 44.5 Rec YDS (60+ in Week 2)Consensus currently has Hill at WR13 and Waddle at WR31.
Still too high.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) September 19, 2024
While Seattle has a great pass defense on paper, it has played Denver and New England to start the season. It doesn't paint a clear picture of the development of the young cornerbacks. And we may not get the answer until it plays Detroit in Week 4.
Regardless of the matchup, be skeptical about Waddle this week. Whether fantasy managers have the means of sitting him with a plethora of injuries at wide receiver is another question.
Mike Gesicki (TE, CIN) vs. Washington
Mike Gesicki is coming off a seven-catch, 91-yard performance against the Kansas City Chiefs. He led the Bengals in both categories (although the touchdowns went to Andrei Iosivas). He's on fantasy radars again.
The Washington Commanders are currently the best defense against fantasy football tight ends. Granted, they've played against Cade Otton and Theo Johnson so far. They're so bad against wide receivers that tight ends aren't needed. Thirty-three opposing wideouts have tallied 75 yards or a touchdown in Washington's last 20 games.
Gesicki was essentially a wide receiver in Week 2. Seventeen of his 30 offensive snaps were from the slot. However, Tee Higgins is practicing this week as he nears his return from a hamstring injury.
Tee Higgins returning to practice seems well thought out. pic.twitter.com/lxb84r4yq5
— Brandon Murchison (@RotoSuperstar) September 19, 2024
If Higgins is on the field, Gesicki's opportunities will be limited. Higgins will join Ja'Marr Chase and Iosivas in three-receiver sets. Gesicki is already in a tight-end rotation (he played 47% of the snaps against Kansas City) with Drew Sample and rookie Erick All Jr.. The Bengals love Sample's blocking skills and utilize Gesicki as a receiver.
With a 0-2 record and an upset star wideout, this is the get-right game for the Bengals. Chase and Higgins will be peppered with targets against the soft Washington secondary, leaving scraps for Gesicki.
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