Week 14 IDP Rankings & A Thought on Tanking at Christmas

Chris Gregory's Week 14 fantasy football IDP rankings at LB (linebacker), DL (defensive line), and DB (defensive back) plus top sleepers, streamers, and fades.

It is crunch time now, as the fantasy playoffs and Christmas season are both finally here. And just like Christmas, the fantasy playoffs are a time of merriment and joy. It's a time to rejoice and have cheer! It's a time to screen print your face on t-shirts that say "Winner," and give them to all of your friends who missed the playoffs! It's a time to get drunk on eggnog and text pictures of your junk to your league mates, with the caption, "Suck on that, losers!" Ah… what a merry time of year it is.

Unfortunately, fantasy playoff time can also come with the stark realization that fantasy football will always be a numbers game. It's a numbers game that tells you only one team can win, while everyone else (yes, even those guys who texted you pictures of their junk) will lose in the end. Only one manager will win in every league, and the rest of you will be disappointed. It is going to happen, and you shouldn't try to hide from it.

While I get how hard it is to accept a fantasy failure, losing is part of the game. So too is the burden of continuing to manage your team, even when all is lost. Though it may not be any fun to manage your "loser lineup" to a fifth-place finish, remember that the integrity of your league is counting on you. If your league rewards last place with the best pick, it does this to ensure the weakest team can get help. Your league doesn't do this so the fifth-best team can bench all their players and start Vinny Testaverde at QB just to lose out and get the top pick next year. And if your league punishes the last place player instead of rewarding them… well, then you already have a good reason to compete, and you don't need this fun lecture I'm giving you, do you? Anyways, that is enough grilling you from under the glaring lights of the world's brightest Christmas tree. Now for my Week 14 IDP ranks!

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Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Quinnen Williams, New York Jets

As we stated in our Waiver column this week, the third-overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft is finally starting to live up to his potential the past few weeks. Williams has totaled 14 tackles and three sacks over the past two weeks, which is terrific production for someone eligible at the DT position. Williams is a reliable DL2 option this week against Seattle and a DT1 option as well.

The Seahawks are surrendering the third-most sacks in the NFL this season and just gave up two and a half to Leonard Williams in a disappointing showing last week. This game lines up very similarly to the one in Week 13. Seattle is playing an underwhelming New York defense that deploys similar personnel to those on the Jets' unit. In particular, Leonard Williams and Quinnen Williams have strikingly similar builds and skillsets, and some were even comparing them to each other last draft season. Look for the younger Williams to have several opportunities at a sack, even if the Seahawks do get ahead early in this one.

*Note that Trey Hendrickson is also a terrific streamer this week, but we have beaten the Eagles offensive line enough lately. I decided to give them a break this week.

DL Fade of the Week: Chase Young, Washington Football Team

This is the second week in a row that I am fading Young. The primary reason we are fading Young specifically, and not all Washington pass rushers, is that the rookie looks to line up against San Francisco's top pass blocker for most of Week 14.

This year Young has lined up across from an opponent's left tackle on 68.9% of his plays. If this trend holds, that means Young will be dealing with Trent Williams on nearly 70% of his plays. That is a problem since Williams has allowed just 1.36 pressures per game and a total of four sacks this year. Williams' second-worst game of the season came last week against the Bills… and he allowed just three pressures. While Young should have slightly better luck against Mike McGlinchey, who is allowing 2.45 pressures per game, McGlinchey has only surrendered three sacks this year. Young won't likely avoid these tough tackles, either, as he has taken only one snap on the interior all season. Young has taken as many snaps at slot corner as he has on the inside.

While Young's sack potential this week is more limited than usual, he isn't a completely useless fantasy asset. Young is strong against the run, and the 49ers are a heavy run team. The Predator's fantasy ceiling is simply more limited than usual this week, just as it was last week when he totaled only two tackles.

Top-25 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week 

LB Streamer(s) of the Week: Avery Williamson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Williamson has been a hard fade for us ever since he joined the Steelers, but things have changed with Robert Spillane going down. With Spillane likely to sit out this week, the Steelers will have to give serious snaps to Williamson. That bodes well for his fantasy value, obviously.

In just 38 defensive snaps last week (53% of the Steelers’ defensive plays), Williamson totaled an impressive nine tackles and a single TFL. That was against a Washington team that was playing from behind and heavily utilizing the short passing game late. While Josh Allen has cannon for an arm, 60.5% of his passes travel ten or less yards past the line of scrimmage this year. That’s a good zone for Williamson, who could have a solid fantasy rebirth this week despite Buffalo’s history of neutralizing opposing linebackers. Williamson should be a borderline LB2 consideration this week, with upside.

LB Fade of the Week: Shaq Thompson, Carolina Panthers

Thompson is a talented player and a viable fantasy player on most days. He has a solid matchup against the Bears this week, too. The problem with Thompson is two-fold, however.

The first issue with Thompson is his lack of performance in good fantasy situations over the past few weeks. In Weeks 11 and 12, Thompson had good matchups with the Lions and Vikings, yet he gave you little in the form of fantasy points. Against the Lions, he notched you only four tackles (three solos), and versus a stout Vikings running attack, he mustered only three total tackles (two solos). That's insufficient production for a talented tackler who played all of his team's snaps against a high-volume running attack. While Thompson has upside if you play in a league where you start only one or two LBs per team, you can likely find a more reliable option for Week 14.

The second concern for Thompson is the fact he was placed on the COVID list. To date, we don't know if he tested positive or will play this week. This kind of insecurity is hard to tolerate going into the playoffs, especially when guys like Troy Reeder are on waivers.

Don't be shocked if Thompson plays this week and plays well. Just be aware of his low floor as of late, no matter the matchup, and the real possibility he may not suit up. If there is a comparable LB on waivers, you may want to add them now and feel secure at the position early.

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Donovan Wilson, Dallas Cowboys

This recommendation comes with the massive caveat that Wilson could miss this week with a groin injury. Keep a close eye on that. That groin injury is why Wilson doesn't rank higher on this list, to be frank. If Wilson does suit up for Dallas, you should strongly consider playing him this week.

When healthy, Wilson has gotten the lion's share of the Cowboys' snaps in the secondary since Week 4. Since then, Wilson has four different games with nine or more tackles. During that time, he has also collected two and a half sacks, plus five turnovers. That kind of tackle and turnover ceiling is fantastic if you need a boom performance from your fantasy DB. While Wilson carries some risk week-to-week, he has an extremely high roof in fantasy and should be considered a starter in the right matchups… and this week is the right matchup.

The Bengals have been one of the pass heaviest teams in the NFL this season. What is surprising is the fact they continue to be pass-heavy even without Joe Burrow. With a combination of Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen under center against the Dolphins last week, Zac Taylor drew up passes on 61.3% of his play calls… despite having largely ineffective QB play and poor pass protection. The Bengals were even more pass-heavy the week prior, throwing on 65.9% of their plays despite playing against a weak Giants offense. It's worth noting that the Bengals are also turning the ball over two and a half times per game without Burrow.

If Wilson plays, he will be going against a pass-heavy team with poor blocking and a turnover problem. All of those things bode well for a guy with Wilson's ceiling.

DB Fade of the Week: Marcell Harris, San Francisco 49ers

This one is more a warning than anything. I saw Harris' name very high (top-20) on the DB ranks for a couple of very prominent rankers… and it baffled me. So I feel like I have to tell you to fade him, even if I've never had Harris in my DB ranks, nor have I ever advocated for you adding him.

Over the past two weeks, the Florida product has logged just 14% and 10% of his team's defensive snaps, respectively. He has logged more than 51% of the 49ers' snaps only twice this season, and he hasn't done so since Week 8.

Playing time isn't the only issue for Harris, either. He hasn't had a single game where he totaled more than five tackles all season, and he has zero sacks on top of that. While he has two FFs and two FRs, those plays don't come frequently enough for you even to come close to risking Harris' low fantasy floor right now.

In case you were wondering if Harris is worth a long-term add despite his lack of playing time, the answer is also no. Despite the Niners' starting strong safety (Jaquiski Tartt) being out for the year, Harris still isn't seeing significant snaps. While he is set for free agency this offseason, it seems unlikely that getting out of the 49ers' defense will unlock his potential. He isn't worth rostering right now, let alone ranking as a DB2 as some have him.

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