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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 11 of the 2023 season? Andrew Ball identifies potential fantasy football busts and duds to avoid for this upcoming week.
Now armed with 10 weeks of data, we know everything and we know nothing.
It's widely regarded that Philadelphia has the best run defense in football and that's a matchup worth avoiding when setting lineups. Ditto with the Jets and wide receivers. But are we sure that defenses like Minnesota and Seattle are bad? Have they improved or has it been a result of easier matchups? And how will backfield touches be split now that teams have pages on pages of advanced stats to sift through?
As you prepare to set your lineups for a victorious Week 11, potential fantasy landmines may need to find a spot on your bench. Below are my 10 fantasy football busts for Week 11 of the NFL season.
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Geno Smith at Los Angeles Rams
Like nearly every quarterback before him, Geno Smith took advantage of one of the best matchups in football and torched the Washington secondary. It led to a season-high mark in yards and fantasy points.
It's in line with performances that Josh Allen and Tyrod Taylor had against the Commanders. Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Jalen Hurts were even better for fantasy football. Unlike that trio, a three-touchdown game still eludes the Seattle signal caller.
The Rams sit just outside the top 12 when it comes to the most fantasy points allowed to the position. However, it's because of the generous amount of running space they're giving quarterbacks. Through nine games, quarterbacks have racked up 209 rushing yards (ninth most) and four touchdowns on the ground. That's tied for the league lead. The secondary is only giving up one passing touchdown per contest.
That's been one of the bigger issues plaguing Smith this season. Over half of the games have been played, and Smith has run for 66 yards on 23 attempts. Doubling those numbers (which gives him the benefit of 18 games) gives the former second-round pick 132 yards. That's still nowhere close to the 366 yards he tallied in 2022. His run success rate is down over 20 percentage points.
While the matchup may be in the green, it doesn't suit what Smith is doing this season. Don't chase the points from last week and find another quarterback option for Week 11.
Najee Harris at Cleveland
Najee Harris' production isn't going to match the draft capital spent on him, but he's doing just enough to avoid being a season-long bust, and therefore being excluded from the column entirely.
For three straight games prior to Week 10, Harris outscored his backfield mate Jaylen Warren. That changed in Week 11, but it wasn't due to a lack of playing time or production. Both scored and topped 18 PPR points.
There's been a lot of buzz about how Warren was introduced with the starters. Mike Tomlin cleared that up following the game and it should be noted that Harris was in the game when the offense first took the field. However, the snap counts were identical for the first time this season, signaling a true 50/50 split instead of the 60/40 or 55/45 that's been the case for the majority of the season.
Against this vaunted Cleveland defense in Week 2, Harris rushed 10 times for 43 yards and caught one pass for no gain. Expect another touchdown-or-bust scenario in the sequel for the big back out of Alabama. If he's lucky, rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson will gift the Steelers a short field, and Harris can take advantage.
Isiah Pacheco vs. Philadelphia
When given the choice, the Chiefs' coaching staff will put the ball in the hands of the best player in the world, Patrick Mahomes. The secondary option is the running game when the matchup or game script favors handoffs.
The matchup against the Eagles clearly benefits Mahomes and the aerial attack. Philadelphia is number one in fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and number one in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. Just two running backs (Brian Robinson Jr. and Breece Hall) have scored rushing touchdowns against the Eagles.
| Team | Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 66.3 |
| Chicago Bears | 76 |
| Detroit Lions | 79.1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 83.1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 86.4 |
Pacheco was not impressive in the last two games before the bye week either, as the offense sputtered into their break. There will be no sugarcoating the game plan if they hope to defeat the team with the best record in the league, and it won't involve a lot of Pacheco.
D'Onta Foreman at Detroit
Starting running back Khalil Herbert (ankle) is scheduled to make his return to the football field against the Detroit Lions, which will make this a mess of a backfield. It would be shocking to see the Bears completely go away from Foreman, who is coming off of consecutive 80-rushing yard performances.
If they keep the veteran in the rotation (something that they did not do following Week 1), he will split opportunities with Herbert and rookie Roschon Johnson. Foreman's strength is running through defenders, not operating as a change-of-pace back that uses receptions to rack up yardage. The Lions allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and the second-fewest yards on the ground. Even if Foreman is part of the rotation, the defense's strengths combat his play style.
That's similar to what happened in Week 8 against the Los Angeles Chargers. The game script and Los Angeles' run defense worked against Foreman and he lost touches to Johnson and Darrynton Evans. It's advised that you start another option in Week 11, so we can better get a grasp of how the touches will be divided among the running back room.
Note: D'Onta Foreman was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury suffered last week.
Puka Nacua vs. Seattle
This call may go against popular opinion, especially with the presumptive return of Matthew Stafford to the Rams' lineup. There's been talk among the fantasy football community about the matchup against Seattle and how the Seahawks' secondary allowed four wide receiver duos to rack up at least 12 PPR fantasy points in the same game. The hope there, of course, is that Nacua and Cooper Kupp boom in their rematch against Seattle.
All four of those examples came in Week 6 or earlier. Below is a chart showing the drastic improvement of the Seattle secondary. The PPR points reflected are from the top receivers by playing time and depth charts. Tyler Boyd outperformed Tee Higgins in Week 6 (which is the fourth example noted previously), as did Dyami Brown with Jahan Dotson last week.
Yes, Puka Nacua did dominate the Seahawks in their Week 1 upset victory. So did Josh Reynolds and D.J. Chark in Weeks 2 and 3, but you don't see them populating fantasy football rosters. Devon Witherspoon is blossoming into a lockdown corner and Tariq Woolen is no slouch himself. He finished third in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting last season. Plus, Jamal Adams is roaming the field now, which wasn't the case in Week 1.
Nacua isn't going to be a sit and is ranked as a high-end WR2, but this defense is worth watching as the fantasy regular season nears its end and the playoffs begin.
Gabe Davis vs. New York Jets
There's no science to predicting when Gabe Davis is booming or busting. Would you have better odds of winning the lottery? Sometimes it seems that way. He could be listed in this column every week and I'd be batting .500.
Ok, I lied. The science does exist in some cases. This is one of those times. Cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed both grade in the top five of PFF's coverage metric. Davis also doesn't have a strong history of playing this division rival. In Week 1, the corners held him to two catches for 32 yards on four targets. Zoom out to see just ten catches in his last four contests against Gang Green.
| Game vs. New York Jets | Stats |
| Week 1, 2023 | 4 targets, 2 catches, 32 yards |
| Week 14, 2022 | 4 targets, 3 catches, 31 yards |
| Week 9, 2022 | 5 targets, 2 catches, 33 yards |
| Week 18, 2021 | 14 targets, 3 catches, 39 yards |
The Bills will likely try some new, different things on offense with interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady now in charge. But, with the matchup, Davis' boom/bust odds are slanted more toward 35/65 instead of the regular 50/50.
DeAndre Hopkins at Jacksonville
DeAndre Hopkins racked up 128 yards and three touchdowns in the debut of rookie quarterback Will Levis. In the two games since, he's posted 87 total yards and caught under 40% of his targets. It's appearing more and more like that game was an anomaly.
But we've seen it happen, which means that's the ceiling. Similar to the wideout above him (Gabe Davis), the range of outcomes for Hopkins is all over the map.
The matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars isn't tough. They're about average or just below that in major pass defense categories, including ranking 11th in receiving yards allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Cornerback Darious Williams, however, does grade as one of the best coverage cornerbacks in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.
Levis is also getting smacked around in the pocket. Whether it's protection issues or a rookie quarterback holding onto the ball for a beat too long, it heavily impacts his ability to find his top wideout.
In the end, this comes down to consistency from Levis. It appears that he is not able to form any routine rapport with the All-Pro wideout, meaning a bust game is in the cards.
Jerry Jeudy vs. Minnesota
Here's a summary of the Denver offense over the past few games: Run, run, run, run, run, Courtland Sutton touchdown.
That leaves very few chances for Jerry Jeudy to catch passes, let alone rack up yards or find the end zone. The fourth-year wideout has been held to 50 yards or fewer in four of his past five outings. The target numbers (five or fewer in three of four games) aren't any more encouraging.
On paper, the matchup against Minnesota looks fantastic. They've flipped a switch since Week 5, however, and now present problems for passing games. It took a blowout and Jameis Winston's carefree attitude to get Chris Olave involved last week. Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Moore, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs have all been kept under their seasonal average for yards in recent matchups.
Sutton is still worth trotting out as a WR2 on touchdown chances alone because he's the clear WR1 in this Denver passing attack. Jeudy can be relegated to benches in standard-sized leagues.
Amari Cooper vs. Pittsburgh
It takes two to make a thing go right.
Cooper had a favorable matchup on tap when the Browns hosted the Pittsburgh Steelers. Then, news came out that his starting quarterback, Deshaun Watson, is out for the season. It went from bad to worse when Kevin Stefanski announced that rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson would get the starting nod over veteran P.J. Walker. Cooper was serviceable with Walker. In his one game with the rookie, it was a disaster.
As noted above, Walker kept targeting Cooper, regardless of success. Number 2, however, has only seen 16% of DTR's 36 attempts. Plus, Joey Porter Jr. is coming along as a lockdown corner in his first season.
Evan Engram vs. Tennessee
Zilch. Nada. None. Blanked. Goose Egg.
There are hundreds of ways to say zero, but for this blurb, we only need two. The Tennessee Titans haven't let a tight end score a touchdown against them and Evan Engram hasn't found the end zone himself through nine games.
Engram's low odds of scoring a touchdown is due to his quarterback. Upon entering the red zone, Trevor Lawrence is completing just 45% of his pass attempts. Four of his nine touchdowns have come from within the 20. While he's ultra-athletic, there are very few plays that would get Engram in space and allow him to score from 40-50 yards out.
Touchdowns (or lack thereof) aside, the Titans allow the fifth-fewest receptions and fourth-fewest yards to tight ends. At a position that's weighted heavier for those who score, streaming another tight end over Engram may be beneficial this week.
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