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Expert Week 10 Thursday Night Football bets, anytime TD scorer, and player prop predictions. Free TNF betting picks, anytime TD scorer, and player props for Week 10.
Thursday Night Football heads to Denver, Colorado, this week for an AFC West battle between the 7-2 Denver Broncos and 2-6 Las Vegas Raiders. Denver's defense was dominant again in their Week 9 win at Houston, holding them to only 15 points to win their sixth consecutive game. The Raiders are coming off a 30-29 overtime loss at home to Jacksonville, and now have to play on short rest on Thursday night.
The Broncos are now tied with the Colts and Patriots for the best record in the NFL. Their two losses were by a combined four points by legitimate playoff caliber AFC teams, with a 29-28 loss in Week 2 at Indianapolis, and a 23-20 loss at the Chargers in Week 3. On the flip side, the Raiders have gotten crushed and lost by two or more scores in four of their six losses, and they've lost by only one point in the other two. But they look a lot more appealing with superstar Brock Bowers back in the lineup and looking healthy.
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Can the Raiders pull off the upset on the road, or will the Broncos continue their climb to the top of the AFC? Let's get to the picks!
Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread
Las Vegas Raiders +8.5 (+410 ML) at Denver Broncos (-550 ML)
Over/Under (42.5)
It's a tough spot for the Raiders, coming off an overtime game and then playing on a short week. Since 2015, when teams play on Thursday following an overtime game the previous week, they are 9-23 straight up and 7-25 against the spread. Overs and unders are split with a record of 16-15-1 in that time.
Geno Smith has struggled on the whole this season, ranking 31st out of 35 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Play (-0.015), per RBSDM.com. He is tied with Tua Tagovailoa for the league lead in interceptions with 11. The 35-year-old has also struggled under the bright lights recently, winning only one of five night games since the start of last season.
Raiders/Broncos Wednesday Injury report-O’Connell out for the Raiders #Raiders pic.twitter.com/vP4nKiXOrr
— Your Boy Q (@YourboyQ254) November 5, 2025
Meanwhile, Bo Nix has a 3-1 record in his four primetime starts and is nails as a favorite, with a 13-1 record for his career. There have been some surprising upsets on Thursday Night Football this season, and the Raiders will need to play their cleanest ball in this one to have a shot.
2025 Betting Trends:
- Against the Spread: DEN 4-4-1, LV 3-5
- As Home Team ATS: DEN 2-2
- As Away Team ATS: LV 1-3
- Over Game Total: DEN 3-6, LV 3-5
Thursday Night Football Game Picks
Denver's defense has been elite again this season. They lead the league on pressure rate (43.5%) and have also held strong against the run, ranking fourth in EPA/Rush (-0.14), per NFL Pro. While they will be without reigning DPOY Patrick Surtain II, they've dominated bad offenses this year. Denver has faced three teams that rank in the bottom 10 in points per game, plus the Jake Browning-led Bengals, and held them to just 41 points and 642 total yards while generating 22 sacks in those four games.
The Raiders fit that bill, ranking 28th in points per game (16.5). Although that number looks much better with Bowers in the lineup, averaging 21.2 points per game versus 8.7 without him.
Defensively, the Raiders play the most traditional, old-school style in the league, playing base personnel 52.4% of the time, the highest in the league, per MatchQuarters. That approach caused some trouble for the Broncos this season. Against four defensive back looks, the Broncos average 3.23 yards per carry, which is the ninth lowest, and a 46.7% rushing success rate, which ranks 18th.
Through the air, albeit a small sample, Nix has just a 5.03 yards per attempt against base, which ranks 28th in the league, and has completed just 20 of 39 pass attempts, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. That could be something to watch for, but the Raiders defense hasn't been a stout unit by any means as they've allowed 30 or more points in back-to-back games, and rank 23rd in EPA/Dropback (0.160) and 16th in EPA/Rush (-0.077).
The Broncos should win this game, as they are 3-0 in games as a touchdown or more favorite this season, but are just 1-2 against the spread. However, the Raiders have been underdogs of a touchdown or higher twice this season, and have gotten completely blown out of the stadium, losing 40-6 to the Colts in Week 5, then putting up one of the most feeble performances in recent memory against the Chiefs in Week 7, losing 31-0.
Bowers didn't play either of those games, and his presence is a huge factor for the Raiders' offense. Las Vegas keeps it close, but Denver wins. We'll also lean to the over, as the Broncos have some exciting weapons on offense and without Surtain, feel a bit gettable on defense.
The Picks: Las Vegas Raiders +8.5 (-105), Over 42.5 (-112)
Thursday Night Football Player Props
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Brock Bowers 7+ Receptions (+106)
Bowers dominated in his return from a three-game absence, snagging 12 of 13 targets for 127 yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars. A fully healthy Bowers is one of the most dominant players in the league, showcasing elite YAC ability and the speed to outrun defensive backs for explosive gains.
With Jakobi Meyers traded to the Jaguars, there should be even more targets coming Bowers' way as the top option in the pass game. Bowers caught at least seven balls in eight of 17 games last season, and he looks even better this season. Bowers should crush this line as Geno's favorite target.
Brock Bowers rumbles into the end zone to give the @Raiders the lead!
JAXvsLV on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/GwxzGpW6Qp
— NFL (@NFL) November 2, 2025
Troy Franklin 50+ Yards (+142)
Franklin has overtaken Courtland Sutton as Nix's favorite target this season over the past two games. Franklin has run a team-high 86.8% of routes and holds the highest target share at 25.8%. The second-year wideout should have a productive night against this Raiders secondary that just allowed Parker Washington to go for 90 yards last week.
While many of Franklin's targets have been uncatchable, he is still Denver's preferred wideout on designed and manufactured touches, which gives him some easy yards. We'll also bank on Nix and Franklin connecting for an explosive gain.
Ashton Jeanty Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Jeanty is the other focal point of the Raiders' offense, but has often nowhere to go as a runner behind a poor Raiders offensive line. However, he was more active as a receiver last week against the Jaguars out of the bye week, catching five balls for a season high 47 yards. In a game with what is likely to be a negative game script for the Raiders, Jeanty should be involved in the pass game.
Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Bets
R.J. Harvey Anytime Touchdown (+210)
Harvey has been a touchdown machine lately. Over the past three games, Harvey has racked up five total touchdowns, tied for the second most in that span with Davante Adams. Head coach Sean Payton has used Harvey in both the pass game and near the goal line in special packages, plus he has the explosiveness to score a touchdown from anywhere on the field.
RJ Harvey TO THE CRIB!
DALvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/lwVIoXtNoZ
— NFL (@NFL) October 26, 2025
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