My Guys: Using ADP to Find Draft Values

August 28, 2021

Michael Florio's favorite fantasy football draft values and targets at their current ADP. These sleepers will outlive their ADPs, and be real difference makers.

Fantasy football leagues are not won in the draft alone, but having a strong draft makes winning the league that much easier. Part of having a great draft is finding players that simply have an ADP lower than they should. But, if you read my strategy article, you know I prioritize upside and not just simply players that will finish higher than you draft them. That is why every player that I write about in this article has the upside not only to outlive their ADP, but to also push your team over the top. 

Finding players that both have too low of an ADP, that also have the upside to be weekly starters, if not difference makers, for your fantasy team is the best way to approach the draft.

All of these players are ones that I actively target in drafts and have a high amount of exposure to already. 

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

ADP: 33.6 overall

Robinson is going as a late third-round pick, sometimes even creeping into the fourth. He is a borderline WR1, on some site going outside the Top-12 WRs drafted. That is wild for a player that has finished as a top-nine fantasy wide receiver in the past two seasons. He is also just one of two players (DeAndre Hopkins) with 150 targets in two straight seasons.

Oh, and his 13 end zone targets last year were the eighth-most in the NFL. Plus, he will transition from a QB tandem of Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles, to one of Andy Dalton and Justin Fields, arguably the best he has played with in his career. The only reason I can think that he is falling is people are bored with him. Do not pass up on A-Rob for that reason. 

Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans

ADP: 41.8 overall

Look, I get that Julio Jones is now 32 years old and he will be playing for a new team this year. But getting him as a fourth-round pick? Yes, please.

Prior to last season when Julio dealt with a hamstring injury, he had been a top-seven fantasy WR in six straight seasons. In fact, last season was the first year since 2013 that he did not top 1,300 yards. And if you are worried about him being washed up, he averaged a career-high 2.15 fantasy points per target last year. And despite being on a new team he still has a strong QB in Ryan Tannehill with another alpha WR opposite of him. Draft Jones at a discount this season. 

Targets of 20+ air yds in 2020

- Julio Jones: 13 tgt, 7 rec, 207 yds, 2 TD, 54% catch rate, 37% xCatch, 2.6 yds separation, 8% tight window, 31% open

- AJ Brown: 12 tgt, 4 rec, 169 yds, 2 TD, 33% catch rate, 28% xCatch, 1.2 yds separation, 42% tight window

Julio still got it

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) June 7, 2021

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears

ADP: 30th overall

The ADP for Montgomery varies a bit site by site, but he typically goes in the late third or early fourth round of drafts. This is a player that finished as the overall RB4 in 2020. And yet, he is barely going off the board as a Top-20 running back. I mean that really is the only case I need to make.

The reason he is falling is that he did his damage against a favorable run schedule at the end of the season. Just like Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor did, but it is not being held against them. Tarik Cohen returning, with the signing of Damien Williams, is a threat to hurt Montgomery’s pass game work, but that concern is more than baked into his ADP.

Bears coach Matt Nagy has also come out and said he wants to get 20 touches per game to Montgomery, which is exactly what he averaged in 2020. Plus, the QB upgrade, especially when mobile Justin Fields takes over, should help open up more running lanes near the line of scrimmage. He is a strong RB2 for those who wait a bit and an ideal RB3 for those who start their drafts running back heavy.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

ADP: 67.3 overall

Williams is starting to get more hype, but you can still get him in the fifth or sixth rounds of drafts. He is a powerful runner who can also be utilized in the passing game. As a junior at UNC, he put up 1,140 yards and 19 touchdowns, while also posting career highs across the board in the passing game with 25 catches, 305 yards and three touchdowns. His 77 missed tackles forced and 0.48 missed tackles forced per attempt both led all college running backs last season. In fact, none of the other qualified backs averaged 0.37 MTF per attempt.

His 4.6 yards after contact per attempt ranked fourth. So we know he has the talent. But after the Broncos traded up to nab him in the second round he will see a lot of work, even as a rookie. In fact, Broncos beat reporter Ryan O’Halloran came on RotoBaller Radio with Scott Engel and I and said he expects him to be the Week 1 starter. Sorry, Melvin Gordon. 

Ryan believes Javonte Williams will be the Broncos Week 1 starter. Says don’t trade up for a RB to not give him big work right away

Says Melvin Gordon will have a secondary role and likely will play on third down and 2 minute drills

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) June 13, 2021

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

ADP: 85.5 overall

You wouldn’t know it by ADP, but Robby Anderson scored the most fantasy points among Panthers receivers. He also led them with a 26 percent target share. While fantasy managers are paying up for DJ Moore, Anderson is still going as a WR3 despite finishing as a Top-20 wideout last year and the departure of Curtis Samuel, who will now be replaced by rookie Terrace Marshall Jr.

Anderson has other stuff working in his favor this season as well. First, he is durable missing just two games in his NFL career. He will also be entering a contract year this season and it never hurts that he has the most yards and touchdowns from Sam Darnold in his career. Anderson is a great WR3 pick this season, with the upside to once again finish Top-20, if not higher. 

Courtland Sutton/Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

ADP: 79.8 / 84.2 overall

Three Broncos in one article? Insert the Jim Halpert what is going on gif, am I right? But in all seriousness, both of these two are players that you do not need to pay anywhere near the ceiling to obtain. In fact, you are likely paying closer to the floor.

Sutton missed all but one game last season, but he was a beast in 2019 finishing as the WR19 on 72 catches for 1,112 yards in 2019. That season he had 11 catches of 20-plus air yards, 18 red zone and 12 end zone targets, all of which ranked in the top eight in the NFL that season. His six end zone catches led the NFL. He is a big deep threat that can win contested catches. Long catches and touchdowns are the quickest way for receivers to rack up fantasy points.

As for Jeudy, he disappointed as a rookie, but do not forget many had him as the top WR in that draft class coming out. He was a victim of drops (not worried) and some poor QB play, but Teddy Bridgewater, who relies more on quick, accurate passes, is a strong fit for him. He flashed at times in 2020, but more consistent QB play should go a long way for him in 2021. Jeudy is starting to go ahead of Sutton and that is looking like the right call. Sutton is still working his way back from his knee injury, while Jeudy has been a standout at camp and in preseason. He can create separation and is very dangerous with the ball in his hands after the catch. He is looking like a prime breakout candidate. 

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers

ADP: 129.3 overall 

Williams ADP varies greatly from site to site, with him going as high as 80th overall on some. And I am willing to pay that price to get him, so with an industry average of 142, he is an absolute steal on some sites. I get it, every year we hype up Williams and yet every year he disappoints. But we have seen him top 1,000 yards in a season and score 10 touchdowns in another.

We know he is amazing at winning contested catches, can be a legit deep threat and a weapon in the end zone. But he has never quite been able to put it all together. But now he will have a full season with Justin Herbert, who is a stronger arm QB that fits his skill set better than Philip Rivers ever did. Additionally, Hunter Henry is gone meaning there are targets up for grabs. This is the last chance for Williams, but he possesses WR2 upside and you do not have to pay anywhere close to that price to get him in drafts. 

Curtis Samuel, Washington Football Team

ADP: 114.8 overall 

It gets overlooked that Samuel finished as the WR24 last season on a team with two other very talented WRs. He has not been a Top-36 WR in two straight seasons. Plus, he joined the Washington Football Team that was searching for a receiver to step up opposite of Terry McLaurin. He is a lock to be the second receiver target, and only has to beat out Logan Thomas to be the overall second target on the team.

Playing with gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick only helps as he is not afraid to take shots downfield, and as we saw in 2020, Samuel has no trouble getting open down the field. Bridgewater just struggled to connect on those balls. Plus, he will add fantasy points with his legs getting carries out of the backfield. Having to pay a WR4 price for a player that has a QB upgrade and has been a WR3 or better the last two years is a solid bet. 

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: 65.5 overall 

Robinson may have an industry ADP of 62, but that is dropping fast and it is as high as 90 on certain sites. He is going as an RB3 on all sites. Yes, the Jaguars used a first round pick on Travis Etienne, but they have talked about him as a weapon that can lineup all over the field. Plus, Urban Meyer has made it clear that the Jags will try to establish the run this season, which means using Robinson.

Last season, Robinson finished as the RB7, scoring double-digit fantasy points in every game. That was largely because he saw 87 percent of the RB touches when he played. That won’t be the case this year, and Etienne hurts his ceiling because he will eat into the pass game usage. But, you can expect to see Robinson out there on early downs and Jags beat reporter Tony Smith joined RotoBaller Radio and said “most, if not all” the goal line work will go to Robinson. 

We are joined by #Jaguars reporter @1010xlfattony - Tony expects Travis Etienne to be a explosive play maker, but James Robinson will be heavily involved and see “most of not all” the goal line work

Etienne will be the 3rd down and catch most passes

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) June 26, 2021

Michael Carter, New York Jets

ADP: 87.7 overall 

Carter fell to the fourth round of the NFL Draft, but yet he is still the Jets RB with the most upside. The competition for touches in the Jets backfield consists of Carter, Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson and La’Mical Perine. He rushed for 1,245 yards as a senior, his second straight season topping 1,000 yards. He also posted a career-high nine rushing touchdowns last year, after rushing for three or less the previous two seasons and eight as a freshman.

He caught 25 balls as a senior and at least 21 passes in three straight seasons. His 267 receiving yards were a career-high and he had six receiving touchdowns in his college career. He did all that while sharing a backfield with Javonte Williams. His 4.7 yards after contact per rush was the second-best in college last year. He has the skills and with little competition, he could quickly carve out a large role. He is a strong upside RB3/4 at his cost. 

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

ADP: 90.8 overall 

All Tannehill has done since taking over the starting job for the Titans is ball out. He’s averaged 21.71 fantasy PPG in 26 games as their starter, on par with the 21.52 he averaged last season. He’s thrown multiple passing TDs in 20 of those 26 games and last season rushed for seven touchdowns. He finished as the QB7 last season and has been the QB10 in fantasy PPG the past two seasons.

Despite that, he is barely going as a QB1 in the Top-100 picks. It’s almost like people forget how good he has been, along with the fact that they added a world-class receiver and have a new offensive coordinator after throwing the ball on just 50 percent of their plays in 2020. Expect Tannehill to throw even more this season. He is a great choice at his current ADP. 

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: 122.3 overall 

You can grab the number one pick of the 2021 NFL Draft as a QB2 in the double-digit rounds. He is a great QB to take a shot on if you wait on the position. Lawrence has a strong arm and can make all the throws necessary to be an NFL QB. But, he is sneaky good with his legs. He rushed for 563 yards in 2019 and followed it up with 203 this past season. He's also rushed for at least eight TDs in two straight seasons. He excels at selling the handoff near the line of scrimmage and rolling out.

I think he can have a Josh Allen type of season where he sneakily put up a high rushing TD total. Expecting eight may be a bit high, but six? That is definitely in the range of possibilities. Plus, no team threw more in 2020 than the Jags. I know Urban Meyer wants to establish the run, but the Jags defense was one of the worst in the league and used their resources primarily on the offense. Game script should lead to him having to pass a lot. Lawrence is a strong value, as are DJ Chark Jr (83.4) and Marvin Jones Jr. (138.4). 

Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens

ADP: 129.8 overall 

I thought Gus Edwards was a good value months ago and his ADP just keeps dropping. Barely in the top 130 picks as an RB4? Sign me up for that any day of the week. In four games without Mark Ingram last season Edwards averaged the same number of carries per game (13) and even more fantasy PPG than J.K. Dobbins did (12.03 to 11.85). The Ravens also tendered him and then gave him a contract extension, showing that he is a vital part of their offense.

I expect him to see at least 40 percent of the RB touches, if not closer to a 50/50 split. Yet, you can get him 8-10 rounds later than Dobbins. He is a great way to get cheap exposure to the Ravens offense. He is worthy of starting as a flex and can really shoot up in value if Dobbins was to miss any time. 

- Gus Edwards: 40% snaps, 12.8 rush per game, 25% touch share, 7% target share (7 tgt), 16 red zone looks, 4.7 YPC, 12.03 fantasy PPG, 0.84 point per touch, (321 yds, 2 TDs)

Current ADP: 109 overall

Gus also just got paid. He’s such a good value right now

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) June 10, 2021

Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio

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