Top 10 Fantasy Football Bust Candidates - Overvalued Players To Avoid In Drafts (2025)

Mike Fanelli's top 10 fantasy football bust candidates for the 2025 season. His 10 overvalued bust picks and draft avoids include Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Breece Hall, Tyreek Hill, Chris Olave, Jonnu Smith, and more.

While the 2025 NFL regular season is still a few months away, now is the time for fantasy players to prepare for their redraft leagues. Everyone wants to talk about sleepers and breakout candidates.

However, today, we look at the bad side of fantasy football. Therefore, let’s dive into 10 potential fantasy football bust candidates for the 2025 season.

The ADP used for this article is courtesy of RotoBaller.

Quarterback Bust Candidates

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – ADP 84.2 | QB9

While Murray had a solid 2024 season, the veteran quarterback left significant fantasy production on the table. He finished last year as the QB10, averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, it was Murray’s lowest fantasy points per game average of his career. Yet, the former No. 1 NFL Draft pick had the second-most passing yards in a season of his career (3,851).

Unfortunately, Murray struggled to connect with Marvin Harrison Jr. last year, completing only 53.5% of his passes to the former Ohio State star. More importantly, the Cardinals did almost nothing to improve their offense this offseason. They didn’t add any big-name players in free agency and spent only a sixth-round pick in the NFL Draft on offense.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions – ADP 97.3 | QB10

Last season, Goff had the best fantasy season of his career. He ended the year as the QB6, averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game, a higher average than Bo Nix (18.6) and Justin Herbert (16.8). The veteran set career highs in several categories, including completion rate (72.4%), passing touchdowns (37), and quarterback rating (111.8). Yet, fantasy players should temper expectations for Goff this season.

GOFF. WILLIAMS. 52 YARD TD!

📺: #LARvsDET on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/T7wgLF9pcF

— NFL (@NFL) September 9, 2024

The Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Chicago Bears this offseason. They hired John Morton from the Denver Broncos to replace Johnson, giving him his first job as an offensive coordinator in eight years. More importantly, Detroit plays seven games outdoors after playing three last season. Goff plays significantly better indoors. Therefore, he is vastly overvalued at his top-10 quarterback ADP.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers – ADP 127.1 | QB17

Love had high expectations last year. He finished the 2023 season as the QB5, averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game after ranking second in passing touchdowns (32) and seventh in rushing scores (four) among quarterbacks. However, the former Utah State star regressed last year, ending the season as the QB17, averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game, throwing 25 touchdowns.

Green Bay added two wide receivers during the NFL Draft, including Matthew Golden, in the first round. However, Christian Watson will likely miss most of the year recovering from a torn ACL. More importantly, Josh Jacobs is still the focal point of the offense. Last season, he had a career-high 15 rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately, Love’s fantasy upside is limited if Jacobs remains healthy.

Running Back Bust Candidates

Breece Hall, New York Jets – ADP 31.4 | RB12

Last year, Hall finished as the RB17, averaging 13.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He set career lows in fantasy points per game, yards per rushing attempt (4.2), and scrimmage yards per contest (84.9). More importantly, the Iowa State star had only 63.9% of the team’s backfield touches in 2024. Yet, Hall could see even less work this season.

New head coach Aaron Glenn comes from the Detroit Lions, where they used a running back by committee situation. Furthermore, he has praised Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis this offseason, which means fantasy players shouldn’t be shocked if Hall finds himself seeing less work this year. He will be a massive bust at his low-end RB1 draft cost.

The #Jets will use a running back-by-committee that features Breece Hall, Braelon Allen & Isaiah Davis, per Aaron Glenn. pic.twitter.com/5YFOfj9tdg

— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) April 8, 2025

Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers – ADP 38.4 | RB15

Fantasy players have high hopes for Hampton in dynasty leagues. The former North Carolina star is the near-consensus 1.02 pick in dynasty rookie drafts after the Chargers selected him with their first-round pick. While the rookie should be ranked as a top-10 dynasty running back, Hampton’s redraft value is significantly lower because of a crowded backfield.

Los Angeles signed Najee Harris in free agency before the NFL Draft. Furthermore, they placed the rarely used unrestricted free agent tag on J.K. Dobbins, increasing the odds that he returns to the team this season. Therefore, Hampton could find himself in a three-way backfield, fighting for consistent touches. While the rookie is my favorite Chargers running back, Hampton shouldn’t get drafted as a top-15 guy.

Wide Receiver Bust Candidates

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins – ADP 36.6 | WR17

Unfortunately, Hill was a fantasy bust in 2024. He finished as the WR21, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a lower average than Adam Thielen (11.6). His six receiving touchdowns matched his career low from his rookie season. Furthermore, Hill’s fantasy success was drastically tied to Tua Tagovailoa’s health.

The star wide receiver averaged six targets and 6.6 fantasy points per game in the seven contests when the star quarterback didn't play or left early. By comparison, Hill averaged 8.1 targets and 13.1 fantasy points per game in the 10 contests Tagovailoa finished. Yet, his 13.1 fantasy points per contest average would have only made him the WR15 on a points-per-game basis last year.

Even though tight end Jonnu Smith has been traded to Pittsburgh and could open up more opportunities for Hill, he’s way overvalued as the WR17 in the rankings.

DJ Moore, Chicago Bears – ADP 46.5 | WR21

Moore has been one of the more underrated wide receivers in fantasy value. Last year, many were afraid to draft him after the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to their wide receiver core in the offseason. Yet, the veteran finished the 2024 season as the WR16, averaging 11.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing on a dysfunctional offense.

Unfortunately, Moore has even more competition for targets this year. Chicago used their top two picks in the 2025 NFL Draft on Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III. More importantly, many believe the rookies could be head coach Johnson’s new Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown. While Moore should be the first Bears pass catcher drafted, the veteran belongs in the WR3 range.

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints – ADP 76.3 | WR31

The Saints were obliterated by injuries last year, especially at the wide receiver position. Olave finished the 2024 season as the WR93, averaging 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game after missing nine contests with multiple injuries. Furthermore, he got outscored by Rashid Shaheed despite playing in two more games (65.8 vs. 60.7).

More importantly, New Orleans might have the worst passing attack in the NFL this year. Derek Carr retired shortly after the NFL Draft, leaving the Saints with Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Haener at quarterback. Yet, the team seems determined to roll with their young core and not add a veteran passer. Unless Olave miraculously gets traded, the star wide receiver comes with too much risk at his current ADP.

Saints QB Derek Carr is retiring after 11 seasons. (via @rapsheet, @tompelissero, @mikegarafolo) pic.twitter.com/irJJ7PVV7V

— NFL (@NFL) May 10, 2025

Tight End Bust Candidates

Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins – ADP 72.5 | TE7

Update - The Dolphins have traded Jonnu Smith to the Pittsburgh Steelers. He will now likely share opportunities with Pat Freiermuth, which makes him an even greater risk at his ADP.

Smith had a breakout 2024 season, ending the year as the TE4, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, posting a higher average than Mark Andrews (9.5) and Travis Kelce (9.2). Furthermore, the veteran tight end led the team with 88 receptions and eight receiving touchdowns, setting career highs in both categories.

TUA AND JONNU FOR THE WIN IN OT! pic.twitter.com/3TJFKzI55M

— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024

Fantasy players should avoid drafting Smith anywhere near his TE7 ADP. The veteran tight end will be on the wrong side of 30 when the 2025 season starts. More importantly, players rarely have career years in their late 20s and maintain that level of success. Smith averaged 31.3 receptions and 2.9 receiving touchdowns per year in his career before last season.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys – ADP 122.3 | TE15

Many had Ferguson as a sleeper candidate heading into the 2023 season. He finished that year as the TE8, averaging 8.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, totaling five receiving touchdowns, setting career highs in both categories. Unfortunately, the former Wisconsin star was a massive fantasy bust last season after fantasy players drafted him as a mid-range TE1.

Last year, Ferguson finished as the TE29, averaging 5.4 fantasy points per game, totaling zero receiving touchdowns. Yet, his struggles were from a lack of volume. He averaged six targets per game in 2023. By comparison, the veteran averaged 6.1 targets per game last season. Unfortunately, Ferguson is no longer the No. 2 option in the passing game after the Cowboys traded for George Pickens.

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