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Mark McWhirter lists his top 10 fantasy football lineup busts and NFL players to avoid for Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season, based on bad matchups.
It's Week 11 and fantasy managers can ill afford any costly losses heading down the stretch. That's why it is important to continue analyzing every fantasy football matchup as our RotoBaller team conveniently does for you. We do the homework; you get the results.
With injuries, bye weeks, and COVID-19 to contend with, managers will need some reinforcements in order to sit normally-useful players. Luckily, our RotoBaller team dives into the top waiver-wire pickups each week.
The Bears, Bills, 49ers, and Giants have the week off, robbing GMs of notable receivers such as Allen Robinson II and Stefon Diggs. Anyone donning those uniforms should obviously be out of lineups this week, but there are at least ten more who should join them. Scroll down to see who will lead you astray at this critical juncture. As always, good luck this week, RotoBallers!
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Melvin Gordon III vs. Miami Dolphins
After finishing no worse than RB21 in four of his first five games as a Bronco, things have since taken a considerable nosedive for Melvin Gordon. The past three weeks have seen Gordon finish as the RB33, RB52, and RB39 while scoring a grand total of 15.9 fantasy points. It’s not as if backfield mate Phillip Lindsay has stolen the job, as evident by Lindsay’s lackluster RB58 and RB79 showings in his past two contests. Although Lindsay’s return has not produced fantasy results, it has taken away opportunity for Gordon to provide a return on investment. After seeing his snap count spike to 79% in Week 4, Gordon has not played more than 59% of snaps since. Averaging 19 touches per game through Week 4, that usage has dipped to 12.75 opportunities per game over Denver’s last four outings. Denver has produced just one top-20 fantasy running back since Week 4, and that was Phillip Lindsay in Week 8.
At first glance, the matchup this week does not appear a foreboding one, as Miami ranks 20th against fantasy running backs. However, those numbers are skewed due to a rough stretch of games from Weeks 3-6. During that period, Miami surrendered 27.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Since then, the Dolphins have allowed only 15.6 points per game to the position. While Kalen Ballage did manage an RB17 performance against Miami last week, and Chase Edmonds provided an RB21 finish the week prior, such success was achieved through excessive volume. Ballage handled 23 touches versus the Dolphins, compared to 28 for Edmonds. Gordon has touched the ball only eighteen total times over the past two weeks. Additionally, Gordon has not scored in three weeks, has only one catch over his past two games, and has been held to two or fewer receptions in four of his last five games. He has devolved into a touchdown-dependent back, and Miami has not allowed a rushing score since Week 4.
The Dolphins have won five straight and six of their last seven. With Drew Lock banged up, Miami appears poised to continue that hot streak, ensuring a negative game script for Denver’s rushing duo. Fortunately for Gordon, he has played ahead of Lindsay in passing situations. Still, a limited workload on the ground for a player who has not been particularly involved as a receiver could spell trouble against an emerging defense. Gordon is an RB3 this week and managers should not be afraid to pivot.
Mike Evans vs. Los Angeles Rams
Jalen Ramsey is playing out of this world right now and Aaron Donald is giving quarterbacks and offensive coordinators nightmares. Fortunately, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers have an assortment of weapons at their disposal, and Ramsey can’t guard them all. Unfortunately, he can and likely will guard Mike Evans for a significant portion of this game.
The WR13 on the season, Evans is just the WR25 in terms of fantasy points per game. He has been extremely boom-or-bust, as his four WR20 or greater finishes demonstrate in contrast to his four performances of WR47 or worse. After ten games, Evans is on pace for a severely disappointing line of 101 targets, 64 receptions, and 822 receiving yards. The obvious disclaimer is that he also happens to be on pace for thirteen touchdowns. Thus, Evans is capable of delivering for fantasy managers in any matchup by making a routine trip to the end zone.
A significant issue pertaining to Evans’ inconsistency is the sheer number of pass-catchers vying for targets in this offense. The Rams allow only 21.7 fantasy points per game to wide receivers and splitting that up between Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown is likely to result in one being left out or all three receiving minimal shares. Brady is going to hit the open man, and the receivers not being covered by Ramsey are likely to be the beneficiaries. Evans has moved into the slot much more often over his past four games, which has allowed him to avoid facing shutdown corners on the majority of his routes. Even if Evans does manage to avoid Ramsey at times, Darious Williams is plenty scary in his own right. You can’t sit Evans barring rostering envious receiver depth, but the weekly coin flip involved in playing him seems likely to land on the wrong side this time around.
Darrell Henderson Jr. vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Each of Darrell Henderson Jr., Cam Akers, and Malcolm Brown have taken turns leading the Rams’ backfield in touches over the last three weeks. This week, they get to divvy up that workload against a Buccaneers’ defense that allows an NFL-best 3.0 yards per carry. Brown led the way with 42% of the snaps last week, while Henderson checked in at 32% and Akers at 25%. Akers actually received the most touches with ten, while the other two were provided eight opportunities. This is a fluctuating situation that is likely to vary week-to-week. Henderson has finished as the RB26, RB38, and RB24 the past three weeks, cementing his status as an RB3 moving forward.
The Buccaneers rank sixth against fantasy running backs on the season but have been more vulnerable through the air than on the ground. Considering Henderson splits work three ways on the ground and is on the lesser end of a receiving usage split with Brown, the game script does not move the needle much either way. Tampa Bay surrenders only 18.2 fantasy points per game to the running back position and dividing that up amongst a near-even trio is going to leave fantasy GMs hungry for more. This backfield is nerve-racking in good matchups, and this matchup is not #good. Sit Henderson this week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. Indianapolis Colts
Marquez-Valdes Scantling has scorched earth recently on his way to a WR1 overall performance last week. He has scored more than 40 fantasy points over the past two weeks and now has three top-twelve finishes on the season. The problem? He had six consecutive disastrous outings in advance of this recent hot streak. During that run of poor form, “MVS” finished no better than WR52 and bottomed out at WR115.
Further complicating matters for MVS is Allen Lazard’s possible return. Lazard holds a 16.5% target share this season, which is actually higher than MVS’s 15%. It is possible that the recent mini-breakout for MVS is enough to firmly grip the WR2 role, but this is likely to be a split behind target-hog Davante Adams. Each of MVS and Lazard will hold considerable upside on any given week, but successful games will alternate with ones that illustrate their extremely low floor.
The floor is extremely low this week, as the Packers travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts’ sixth-ranked defense against fantasy receivers. Allowing only 26.7 fantasy points per game to the position, and just 13.1 over the past two weeks, there is going to be slim pickings behind Adams. If Lazard is active, MVS is enormously risky. As always, his sky-high ceiling makes him playable, but don’t be surprised if a disappearing act is in store this week.
Mark Ingram II/J.K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards vs. Tennessee Titans
Mark Ingram returned from a two-game absence last week to play 26% of the snaps and handle seven touches. Backfield mates J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards played 44% and 22% of snaps, receiving six and eight opportunities, respectively. This situation has gone from headache to full-blown migraine for fantasy GMs. When all three are active, Ingram has led the way in opportunities, albeit ever so slightly. When suited up together, Ingram’s 60 touches edge out Edwards’ 58, while Dobbins trails behind at 42.
Ingram has not finished higher than RB38 since Week 4 and has done so only twice this season. His floor is a shaky one, evident by Ingram’s three performances of RB56 or lower. Meanwhile, Edwards has actually finished between RB13 and RB28 in each of the past four weeks. Ingram missed two of those games, however, and Edwards’ usage decreased upon the former’s return last week. In fact, Edwards’ eight opportunities in Week 10 perfectly matched his average of eight touches per game prior to Ingram succumbing to injury, whereas he had handled 14.5 touches per game during Ingram’s time on the shelf. Dobbins is seldom used but still has finishes of RB15 and RB17 to his credit this season. His big-play ability is necessary due to such limited volume. The past two weeks have seen Dobbins check-in as the RB47 and RB60.
The Titans are friendly to running backs, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game. While they gave up 33.5 points to a Colts team that employs a similar three-headed rushing attack, Jonathan Taylor managed only an RB38 finish while Jordan Wilkins was held to an RB51 performance. Nyheim Hines excelled as the RB3 on the week, but he was afforded seventeen touches, caught five passes, and scored twice. Ingram has only five receptions and two touchdowns on the entire season. Dobbins has also found the end zone only twice, while Edwards leads the way with three total scores. The ceiling demonstrated by Hines last week, therefore, appears unattainable for any of these Ravens’ rushers. Philip Rivers is not quite the rushing threat of Lamar Jackson, adding the variable of a quarterback vulturing valuable red zone carries. Tennessee is middle-of-the-pack in terms of yards per carry against and rushing touchdowns allowed, which is where these passing-game limited runners will have to thrive. Treat each of the bunch as RB4s, with Dobbins offering the most upside due to his ability to break long plays and the most downside to the risk of an extremely limited workload. None can be started with confidence.
Philip Rivers vs. Green Bay Packers
Philip Rivers has been an excellent streaming candidate as of late, having finished between QB6 and QB13 in three of his last four outings. The floor is still low, however, as his other six games have all resulted in finishes of QB22 or worse. The emergence of Michael Pittman Jr. will hopefully lend a hand to Rivers’ consistency, as he has essentially operated without a number one receiver due to the injury of Parris Campbell and the decline of long-time fantasy stud T.Y. Hilton. Rivers has thrown only eleven touchdowns in nine games and offers virtually no help with his legs, having rushed for awe-inspiring negative-two yards this season. He has only two multi-touchdown games on his ledger, as the Colts’ enforce a game plan structured around their defense and ground attack.
Green Bay’s defense has proven a formidable foe in the passing game, as opposing signal-callers have managed only 16.3 fantasy points per game against them. While the Packers are extremely friendly to running backs, they have been stingy to both wide receivers and tight ends, ranking ninth and fourth against those positions. Rivers clearly has his work cut out for him this week. Only one quarterback has surpassed 14.8 points versus Green Bay in the past six weeks, and that was the red-hot Deshaun Watson, who managed 40 more rushing yards in that game than Rivers has all year. Take out that game and Green Bay has surrendered an average of only twelve points in the other five matchups. Quarterbacks have passed for a combined seven touchdowns against the Packers over the last six weeks and have averaged only 230 passing yards. Rivers relies heavily on those two statistics to accumulate fantasy production. The grizzled veteran should be a fantasy spectator this week.
Robert Tonyan vs. Indianapolis Colts
It is hard to determine what qualifies as a “bust” at tight end these days. It seemingly only takes an avoidance of a goose egg to finish in the top-12. For those rostering Travis Kelce – congratulations. For nearly everyone else, hold your breath and hope for a touchdown. That is certainly what you will have to do this week if you plan to start Robert Tonyan, as awaiting him in Indianapolis is the toughest matchup in the league for tight ends.
The Colts have such disdain for tight ends that they give up only 6.1 points per game to the position. While every other NFL team has allowed a receiving touchdown to at least one tight end, the Colts have not been so generous. Jonnu Smith did have a rushing score against them last week, but don’t count on that from Tonyan. Averaging just 3.6 targets per game over his past five weeks, the floor could not be lower for Tonyan in this matchup. He has topped 33 receiving yards only once during that span and has not visited the end zone since Week 4. That sound you hear is the panic alarm and fantasy managers should be running to the waiver wire to find a safer option.
Jerry Jeudy vs. Miami Dolphins
On the surface, a matchup with the Dolphins’ 20th-ranked defense against fantasy receivers does not intimidate. If you eliminate the team’s Week 2 matchup with the Bills, however, Miami ranks eighth against the position in terms of fantasy points surrendered per game. Jerry Jeudy is an excellent receiver and is one of many from this year’s crop of rookies to have hit the ground running. Jeudy has emerged as the number one target for the Broncos as of late, after falling behind Tim Patrick earlier this season. Over his last three games, Jeudy has accumulated 32 targets, 15 receptions, and 266 receiving yards while scoring once. That type of target volume should produce fantasy gold when provided to a receiver of Jeudy’s talent.
The issue with Jeudy’s targets is not the quantity, but the quality. Jeudy has caught only 49.3% of passes directed his way. Even with 10.7 targets per game aimed at Jeudy over the last three weeks, he has still finished above WR34 only once. That performance was a WR8 finish, at least demonstrating the ceiling Jeudy possesses if the Broncos could get him the ball more effectively. The effectiveness of Denver’s quarterback situation may actually decrease this week, as Drew Lock is questionable to play with an injury to his ribs.
Keenan Allen managed only a WR27 performance against the Dolphins last week while Mike Williams settled in as the WR58. DeAndre Hopkins was the WR75 versus Miami the week prior, although Christian Kirk picked up the slack as the WR10. Kirk, though, has the benefit of a quarterback playing at an MVP-level, a luxury not shared by Jeudy. Whether it’s Drew Lock or Brett Rypien, the Dolphins have the sixth-lowest quarterback rating against. That is enough worry to bench a receiver who has finished inside the top 33 at his position just twice this season.
Jarvis Landry vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Jarvis Landry’s fantasy trajectory has not taken the path that many assumed following Odell Beckham’s season-ending injury. In the three games post-Beckham, including the game Beckham left injured after playing only 4% of snaps and seeing only one target, Landry has not finished above WR45. Other than a mediocre two-game span from Weeks 4-5, Landry has not provided a useful fantasy game for managers this season. After undergoing offseason hip surgery, Landry has been dealing with injured ribs since Week 5. He is clearly not at 100% health, as his lowly 7.7 fantasy points per game shows. That average places him at WR64 for the season, although he is WR52 in terms of total points. Subtract the name and those totals do not belong on fantasy rosters.
The weather has played a significant factor in the lack of passing production for Baker Mayfield the past two weeks and this provides some glimmer of hope for those holding onto Landry. Mayfield has totaled only 254 passing yards with no passing touchdowns over that short stretch. The Eagles are ninth against fantasy receivers and thirteenth in points per game. Over their last four games, the Eagles have allowed only 22.2 fantasy points per game to receivers, which would trail only the Rams for the toughest matchup for the position. Landry has topped six targets only twice, produced more than 52 yards only twice, and has yet to find the end zone. The ceiling is tempered, especially with the Browns clearly desiring to lean ultra-heavy on their elite rushing duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Austin Hooper has returned and will be involved, meaning Landry will have at least some competition for the limited targets afforded in this offense.
Other than a nice performance against the Bengals, Mayfield has averaged eleven completions on 21 pass attempts per game in his other three recent matchups. Those games have seen Mayfield average 124 passing yards while tossing only one touchdown alongside two interceptions. The pie is a small one to share in Cleveland and even Landry’s 22.8% target share will not make him worth rolling the dice on this week.
Nelson Agholor vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Nelson Agholor was a waiver wire darling following a hot stretch from Weeks 4-7. Things have cooled considerably since then. After laying an egg in Week 8, Agholor finished as the WR91 last week. He has just three catches on nine targets over his past three games for a total of 63 receiving yards. His snap percentage dipped to 60 in Week 10 after playing at least 78% of snaps in each of the prior six games. Bryan Edwards returned last week to play 27% of snaps and should challenge to approach his usage from earlier this season once he is back up to speed, adding another mouth to feed alongside Agholor, Henry Ruggs III, and Darren Waller. Derek Carr has attempted only 24 passes per game over the last three weeks, meaning targets will be hard to come by for Agholor.
The Chiefs are top-five against the wide receiver position, allowing only 25.4 fantasy points per game. Agholor scored and finished as the WR24 in his last game with the Chiefs, but he did so on only two targets. GMs should not bet on that level of efficiency this time around. Prior to the Panthers producing nicely last week, the Chiefs had remained sturdy against wide receivers, allowing only 21.3 points per game over the three previous weeks. With only two defensive blips on the radar for the Chiefs this season, the odds are not in Agholor’s favor in this game. The same goes for Ruggs and Edwards. Sit all three this week and roll with a Raider-less lineup unless rostering Josh Jacobs or Darren Waller.
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