RADIO
With two weeks until the start of the NFL season, many fantasy managers are moving from participating in best-ball leagues to starting to prepare for redraft and home leagues. However, that doesn't have to mean you give up on some of your favorite sleepers.
I've been pretty consistent in arguing that the term sleeper is often misused. Since we have an ever-increasing amount of information at our fingertips, many fantasy managers think of sleepers as guys people haven't heard about, which would likely mean guys with very little chance of making a meaningful impact. However, as Phil Clark put it in his RB sleeper piece, we need to shift towards the term sleeper describing players that are "primed to exceed the expectations of their ADPs." Sometimes that will mean your late-round dart throws, and other times it will mean a veteran who dropped too far in the draft.
You'll find both such types among the five names I dive into below, much like I did for wide receivers earlier. Since this is a "deep" sleeper piece and not simply your run-of-the-mill sleeper column, I'll be looking strictly at guys who are going in the double-digit rounds, based on ADP for a 12-team full-PPR league, so guys who are being taken outside the top-120 picks. For the purpose of this article, I've taken the ADP from NFFC drafts between August 11th and 25th, which you can find here.
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Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots
ADP: 139/TE15
Everybody knows the Patriots love to use their tight ends because we've been hearing people talk about it for almost a decade now. So when the Patriots go out and sign a 26-year-old with elite run after the catch ability, I expected to see the draft price shoot up.
The only reason I can find is that the Patriots also signed Hunter Henry. However, Jonnu has been better than Henry in their careers up until now and has a run-after-the-catch ability that Henry simply doesn't have. As a 4.73 40 runner with 25th percentile burst and 3.4 expected yards after the catch, Henry simply can't compare in the open field to Jonnu and his 4.62 40, 94th-percentile burst score, and 4.8 expected yards after the catch.
Could Henry take some red-zone looks away from Jonnu? Sure, but last year, the Patriots threw the ball in the red zone 25.6% of the time to N'Keal Henry, who is losing playing time this summer, and then favored dump-offs to running backs with James White (15.4%) and Rex Burkhead (12.8%) being their second and third-most targeted players in close. I fully expect that hierarchy to change this year and think the entire Patriots target share could be in for an overhaul, which would leave room for both Smith and Henry.
Aside from my belief in Jonnu's talent, the biggest factor pushing me in his direction is the dearth of other options in the passing game. Jakobi Meyers and his team-leading 24.7% target share are back but with the departure of Julian Edelman, Damiere Byrd, Rex Burkhead, and starting tight end Ryan Izzo, the Patriots have to replace 58.9% of their team targets last year. Yes, they added Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, but neither one of those guys is a dynamic talent and neither works the middle of the field the way Jonnu does. I fully expect him to be a major asset for the Patriots this year and finish as a top-10 option at the position.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
ADP: 179/TE21
I understand that this ADP is because most people think Ertz is on his way out of Philadelphia to allow Dallas Goedert to take over the reins at the position, but I think we might be jumping the gun on that a bit.
So not only is Ertz seeing more targets and playing more snaps than Goedert, but Ertz also stated that he wants to retire an Eagle. Ertz also led the Eagles in target share last year at 18.6% while playing 81.3% of snaps, most on the team. Many will say, "Yeah, but what did he do with those snaps and targets?" The truth is, not so much; however, I think much of that has to do with Carson Wentz and not a massive decline for Ertz. The tight end averaged three yards of separation, per Next Gen Stats, which is the same as Darren Waller. Ertz also had only a 50% catch rate but just five drops on the year, which suggests that many of the passes he was seeing were not entirely catchable.
What's also worth pointing out is that the Eagles moved Ertz around in the formation more than Goedert last year and used Ertz way more as a receiver, while Goedert does comparably more blocking.
I think this preseason has clearly shown us that, now that Ertz is remaining with the Eagles, he is still going to be a major part of this offense. Ertz will remain an active receiving tight end; yet, he's being taken after guys like Cole Kmet, Adam Trautman, and Hunter Henry. Give me the discount on a former elite tight end every time.
Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans
ADP: 192/TE23
We mentioned that Jonnu Smith is in for a big role with his new team, but now we can turn our attention to who fills his shoes in Tennessee. With Smith gone and MyCole Pruitt also out of town, Geoff Swaim and Firkser are the only two holdover tight ends. While Swaim played more snaps than Firsker last year, even in the Week 13 game that Jonnu missed, Firkser saw more than double the percentage of targets Swaim did on the season. In that Week 13 game in particular, Firkser saw seven targets, while Swaim only had one.
So even if Swaim is on the field more, Firkser is there to do one thing: run routes. That's made even more clear by this graphic:
This also should come as no surprise considering that Firsker is an above-average athlete who lined up in the slot on 59% of his snaps last year and has only one drop in his career. In fact, the fourth-year pro was fifth on the Titans in target share last year even in his reserve role, and three of the names above him (Smith, Corey Davis, and Adam Humphries) are now playing for other teams. Even with Julio Jones in town to soak up targets, it's not out of the realm of possibility to assume that Firkser can soak up much of Smith's 15.1% target share, on top of the 11.2% that Firkser himself had last year.
So we know that he is really the only option tight end to get targets on his team. We also know he catches most things that are thrown at him, and we also know that he is productive when he has the ball in his hands:
Why aren't more people in on Firkser? Is it because the Titans are a run-heavy team with Derrick Henry? Sure, fine, but they also get in the red zone a lot and Ryan Tannehill threw 71 passes inside the opponent's 20-yard line last season, which was tied for 13th in the league. Do you know who they passed to the most in the red zone? Nope, not A.J. Brown. It was Jonnu Smith, who saw a 26.9% target share in the red zone. Firkser was fourth with a 10.5% share, so the red zone targets will likely be there for Firkser even if Julio takes Corey Davis' third-best red-zone target share.
So you're telling me I can get the primary receiving tight end, who is also a red zone threat on a good offense, and I only have to spend the 192nd pick? Yup. Consider me all in on that.
Donald Parham Jr., Los Angeles Chargers
ADP: 276/TE35
This one is all about opportunity share. The Chargers threw the ball 627 times last year, which was good for fifth-most in the NFL. They also threw for the sixth-most yards and the 10th-most touchdowns. Now, I know a large part of that had to do with Austin Ekeler missing six games and the defense being so banged up that the offense often found itself in shootouts; however, after spending a high pick on Justin Herbert and watching him succeed so often in his rookie season, it would be prudent of the Chargers to continue to allow their future franchise player to make plays through the air.
If they do that, where will the ball go? The most obvious answer is Keenan Allen, who saw an 82.7% snap share last year and 26.7% target share; however, the snap share leader was actually Hunter Henry, who played on 87.2% of downs and was second on the team with a 17.9% target share. With Henry now in New England, Justin Herbert will be looking for another passing game option aside from Allen and Mike Williams. I know many people will say that will be the newly-signed Jared Cook, but I just don't see it.
Cook is a 34-year-old tight end with a 61.7% catch rate, almost no run after the catch ability, and minimal separation ability, registering only 2.2 yards of separation last year. On the other hand, Parham is a 24-year-old with tremendous ability once the ball is in his hands. He flashed big-play ability this offseason in the team practices against the 49ers, showing an explosion down the field that Cook simply doesn't possess. It appears that the Chargers also understand that and, according to an article from The Athletic, have been moving Parham around the formation to get him on the field often: "It is clear that Parham is going to have a big and influential role in this Chargers offense. He is lining up mostly detached from the formation, both out wide and in the slot."
Given the low draft capital I'd need to use to secure Parham, I'm willing to take a flyer on an athletic tight end in a pass-happy offense with a rising star throwing him the ball. Jared Cook isn't going to scare me off from doing that.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
ADP: Undrafted
OK, I'll give you one more quick one because I'm a nice guy. Most people were expecting that Adam Trautman was going to take over Jared Cook's role when the veteran signed with the Chargers, but it seems as though that hasn't been happening.
We don't entirely know what the Saints' offense will look like with Jameis Winston (or Taysom Hill) under center, but we know that Jared Cook had a 12.5% target share last year and was second on the team with a 17.4% target share in the red zone. In Jameis Winston's last year as a full-time starter, he threw the ball to his tight ends 20% of the time, which is not a massive number but certainly opens up the possibility of a 12-15% target share for whoever is the primary tight end. By all accounts, that seems to be Juwan Johnson right now, so if I'm in a deep league and am looking for a bench stash at the position who could hit big, I'm going to take an athletic tight end on a good offense who seems to have a starting role.
Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 127/TE13
Sometimes we have a problem in fantasy sports where we turn a blind eye to context. Sometimes we want things to happen so badly, like Dallas Goedert or Mike Gesicki to break out, that we don't look at the bigger picture surrounding the topic. That's the only logical explanation for me to understand why Irv Smith Jr. continues to go behind a TE who isn't yet the starter on his own team and another TE who hasn't proven to be a consistent option in three years. In truth, I do like Gesicki, but this is more a point about why I like Smith more.
After being drafted out of Alabama in 2019, many thought that Smith was a sure-fire fantasy stud. He had an 87th-percentile sprint speed score and showed impressive ability after the catch. However, he went to Minnesota and shared reps with Kyle Rudolph and now everybody seems to have forgotten about Smith. With Ruldoph now on the Giants, he will take with him a 72% snap share and 10.6% target share (less than Smith's 11.1% on the season). Since the Vikings didn't bring in any major competition at tight end, it looks like Smith will soak up many of Rudolph's snaps and likely his red-zone role as well, which could make Smith the second-most targeted red zone option behind last year's team leader Adam Thielen.
In the four games without Rudolph to end the season last year, Smith was in on 71% of the team's snaps and ran a route on 95.4% of those snaps. So even though he and Tyler Conklin both played an equal amount of snaps, Smith ran more routes and also played 20% of his snaps in the slot last year, which indicates that the Vikings view him as more of a receiving option and is good news for his fantasy value.
We know the Vikings want to run the ball with Dalvin Cook, so Smith won't see the target share of the elite tight ends, but given his athletic profile, his expanded role, and his years in the offense, I think Smith is poised for a breakout that could put him in the range of a guy like Logan Thomas, who is going 35 picks earlier.
UPDATE: Irv Smith Jr. has a knee injury and is likely out for the season.
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