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John looks at fantasy football rookie sleepers, risers and busts for Week 2 of 2024. Which NFL rookies from 2024 could be fantasy football league winners?
Rookies offer league-winning cheat codes quite often in fantasy football. It's possible to get players that are relatively unknown but go on to have massive, league-winning seasons for very cheap (like late-round draft picks or trading far inferior players), and being early on rookies can get your team over the hump and the championship.
Just last year, Rams WR Puka Nacua, Dolphins RB De'Von Achane, and Lions TE Sam LaPorta offered week-winning and league-winning upside, and being early on, any of these players had league-altering results. Chiefs WR Rashee Rice went on a tear last season and was PPR dynamite. The list goes on.
The first edition of this column will try to help you be "early" on rookies, whether to acquire or dump them. Try to trade for the good ones ASAP, or after a "down" game and the bad ones, you should make plans to move on from. This column is specifically focused on helping you win your league. If you want to win, let's dive in!
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What Makes a League Winner?
Before we get to any players, let's talk about what makes a league winner. It's pretty simple - players who demolish their ADPs or far outperform relative to what you paid for them. In 2023, Nacua was the best example of this. He went undrafted in many leagues and provided WR1 numbers. That value can't be beaten.
If you got a player like Nacua off waivers or late in the draft, your chances of winning your league increased exponentially. Even though he wasn't the WR1 to end the season, no other WR came close to smashing his value.
PUKA TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/CcPKV1e1HQ
— Alex 👋 (@Dubs408) January 15, 2024
For the most part, you're better off focusing on rookies who were drafted in the later rounds of the fantasy draft. Paying handsomely for a rookie is a lot riskier than the same for a stud veteran. Already, the people who drafted Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. over Buccaneers WR Mike Evans are regretting it.
With that being said, let's dive into the potential league-altering rookies from what we've seen so far from Week 1.
League Winner: Brian Thomas Jr.
The NFL evaluation process has a few key flaws that you can exploit as a fantasy manager. One of the biggest ones is this: you can't know how good a player is at something if they're never asked to do it in college.
Brian Thomas Jr. was asked to spam go routes and comeback routes in college. We didn't get to see a lot else. Because of this, he was seen as a raw, unrefined prospect. One week into the season, it's pretty apparent that he's way better than we thought he was. Watch him embarrass All-Pro CB Ramsey on this play.
Brian Thomas Jr wins against Jalen Ramsey because he immediately stacks when coming out of his release. His speed off the line is scary good. pic.twitter.com/7kSpQdFG1A
— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) September 10, 2024
That All-Pro CB had to commit pass interference to stop the play from being a touchdown. If he hadn't, Thomas would've finished the day with five catches for 88 yards and two touchdowns. That's 25.8 PPR fantasy points against a team with Jalen Ramsey.
Do what you can to get Thomas. He should still be relatively cheap trade-wise, and he may have a down game here and there, but the talent is absurd. He's 6-foot-3, 209 pounds, and runs a 4.33 40-yard dash, which is obscene. And he clearly has the skills to excel because he's cooking an All-Pro CB in his first game.
First career touchdown for Brian Thomas Jr 🔥 pic.twitter.com/22i3qWsJIa
— The League Winners (@LeagueWinnersFB) September 8, 2024
He had the most efficient Week 1 debut of any rookie wide receiver in the last ten years. His talent is already translating. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence also loves to throw the deep ball. Thomas Jr. is perfect for Lawrence, and Lawrence for Thomas. Has it been mentioned that he already looks like the Jaguars' WR1?
Brian Thomas Jr. had the highest EPA per route of any rookie WR in Week 1 since 2013 (the first year EPA data was available) 💥
H/T @NoFlagsFilm https://t.co/png3tMwp49 pic.twitter.com/svxkrVSKug
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) September 10, 2024
Game-Changer: Xavier Worthy
Worthy had a huge game in Week 1, so it might not be the best time to buy. But keep in mind he only had four total opportunities: three targets and a single rush. It's extremely unlikely that he will score two touchdowns the next time he gets so few opportunities, and if he has a dud game in Week 2, it'll be the perfect time to trade for him.
Here's the second Worthy touchdown from yesterday. (I believe) it's a blown coverage, and there needs to be a deep safety on that side of the field. The other safety's movement at the snap makes it unlikely this is single-high coverage.
It's all driven by the late motion to… pic.twitter.com/KKzktSZQKD
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 6, 2024
Rookies typically start slow in Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's offense, so Worthy could see low opportunity numbers continue for much of the season. This happened with Rice last year, and he ended up being massive for the fantasy playoffs. Worthy is a great WR on a great offense, just like Rice.
If he has a down game, you should aggressively trade for him. Even if he has a disappointing stretch, he offers league-winning potential once he masters Reid's offense.
Game-Changer: Adonai Mitchell
Wait, what? Colts WR Adonai Mitchell had just one catch for two yards. Why is he on this list?
Philosophically, the fact that you're asking this question is part of the reason Mitchell could help you win leagues. His price will never be lower. He had a few massive near-miss plays that could be due to his lack of chemistry with QB Anthony Richardson or Richardson's rust from missing time.
Adonai Mitchell should be on everyone’s buy list asap he could be pushing for WR1 in Indianapolis. pic.twitter.com/aH0fRV2EXp
— Football Fanatics (@FFB_Fanatics) September 9, 2024
Richardson has a cannon of an arm. And any receiver who gets behind the defense multiple times and is wide open for potential long touchdowns is a game changer. To make things even better, Richardson threw not one but two touchdowns of over 50 yards. Mitchell is the best deep threat on the team. Get him while you can.
Game-Changer: Jonathon Brooks
It's possible that you drafted Brooks in your PPR leagues. If you didn't, and the Brooks manager has any holes in their roster, you should aggressively trade for Brooks to try to fill them in. Brooks still needs time to return, and he could provide massive value when he does return.
JONATHON BROOKS 40 YARD TOUCHDOWN
TEXAS 7-0 pic.twitter.com/A6ovcG8cwx
— Nash (@NashTalksTexas) September 24, 2023
Brooks is not only an excellent running back, but he also provides PPR scam upside. PPR Scams are players who earn lots of targets and score outlandishly high totals in PPR due to receptions (see 2023 Alvin Kamara). Brooks will be joining an offense mostly devoid of weapons.
Panthers QB Bryce Young has been abysmal and will have a chance to pad his stats by checking it down to Brooks. In addition, NFL defenses are so keyed in on stopping downfield plays that offenses are starting to move toward more checkdowns. PPR Scam running backs could be potent league winners in 2024. Go and get Brooks if you can.
Disappointment: Marvin Harrison Jr.
While it's only one game into the season, the price people paid to draft Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is already looking like a rip-off. Maserati Marv could only catch one pass for four yards in the Cardinals' loss to the Bills in Week 1. A WR drafted that high should provide weekly game-winning upside to managers.
the week 1 Marvin Harrison Jr. tape did not lie
he looked shockingly slow and uncertain https://t.co/LV6UDEF1gW pic.twitter.com/CzMXPvmhyK
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) September 11, 2024
Harrison's performance was shocking. The Cardinals' lack of interest in involving him in the game plan (just three targets) and his extreme sluggishness on tape were major red flags. It's been speculated he could be nursing an injury that caused him to skip the combine and pro day.
As bad as it would be, that might be the best-case scenario because if Harrison looks like that all season, it could get ugly for his managers. Unfortunately, there's not much to do other than wait, but the Cardinals' Week 2 opponent, the Los Angeles Rams, has a much softer secondary than the Bills.
Harrison presents a remarkably difficult situation. I'd sell him as soon as he has a good game, but that might be a long wait. Earlier in the season, players drafted in the later rounds have depressed values even if they're playing well, so if you can flip him for WRs DeVonta Smith or Chris Godwin, you may benefit.
So What Should I Do If I Want To Win My League?
This is the most important piece of fantasy advice I will write all year: Capitalize on rookies while you still can. This column mostly focused on receivers, which is reasonable because this was a historic rookie class. It wouldn't have been an overreaction to trade Jets WR Garrett Wilson for Puka Nacua after Week 1 of 2023.
That would've sounded crazy at the time, but if you thought Zach Wilson was horrible (he was) and G. Wilson wouldn't produce well with him at QB (he didn't), you could've won your league. Puka had an even crazier performance in Week 2, and it would've been much tougher to get him at that point.
Aggressive moves to pick up Thomas Jr., Mitchell, and Brooks might look crazy now, but things change fast in fantasy football, and the single fastest creator of change other than season-ending injuries are rookies going nuclear. It happens every year, and there's no reason you should miss out this time.
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