The Outsiders: Prospect Hitters to Know for Deep Dynasty Leagues

July 29, 2021

Phil Goyette takes a look at deeper fantasy baseball dynasty hitter prospects, prospect sleepers that should be on your fantasy radars in deep dynasty leagues.

Welcome to the latest update where I highlight prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

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Overview

My Outsider rankings focus on a stats-heavy approach. I have created a fantasy-based weighted average called "Outsider+". This week's Outsiders are all hitters who performed at or above league-average level in each of the eight Outsider+ component stats at a level this season. There have only been 39 such seasons in all of the minors in 2021!

Here is the next batch of Outsiders to know for dynasty baseball leagues in 2021:

Included in the Outsider+ (OUT+) average are the following statistical measures. Each stat is league adjusted so that "100" equates with a league-average performance. Each digit above or below 100 represents a 1% deviation from the average. So, Josh Smith's 243 Estimated Barrel+ rate was 143 points above the average performance in Low-A Southeast in 2021.

OPS+ a measure of a hitter's overall offensive production, combining on-base percentage and slugging.

Estimated Barrel+ my proprietary quality of contact metric which estimates the percentage of batted balls that were Statcast Barrels. A full write-up on the metric can be found here.

Estimated xwOBA+ takes a hitter's Estimated Barrels, K%, and BB% and estimates his Expected Weighted On Base Average. Measures a hitter's total offensive production in a linear weights method for offensive events. You can read more on xwOBA here.

BB:K+ is the ratio of a batter's walks to strikeouts, to measure a hitter's plate discipline and selectivity.

Contact%+ measures a batter's ability to make contact and put balls in play. Vital for batting average and on base percentage.

Spd+ is the FanGraphs version of Bill James' speed score concept. Measures various factors of a hitter's in-game speed and baserunning ability.

SB%+ is the percentage of successful stolen base attempts. Measures a batter's stolen base efficiency.

SBO%+ is an estimate of how frequently a batter attempts to steal bases. Measures a batter's aggressiveness on the base paths.

Here's a breakdown of each of these 10 Outsiders.

Josh Smith, SS - Texas Rangers

Current situation:

Trade alert! Josh Smith was part of the package the Yankees put together to send to Texas to acquire Joey Gallo from the Rangers. Smith, 23, will be familiar to you regular readers of the Outsiders, as he's been lighting up the statistical leaderboards in the minors all season long. Texas is getting a potential future MLB contributor here. Outside of his excellent offensive production, Smith has also shown the ability to work counts, draw walks, use his speed to make noise on the basepaths, and handle the defensive duties at shortstop on an everyday basis.

Hugo Cardona, SS - Toronto Blue Jays

Current situation:

A new entry to the Outsider list for the 2021 season! Blue Jays shortstop Hugo Cardona was recently bumped up to Low-A after a brief stint with the Blue Jays' Florida Complex League team. Cardona was signed by the Blue Jays as an international free agent in 2016. He's shown speed, good plate discipline, and a little bit of pop early on with Dunedin:

Matt Vierling, OF - Philadelphia Phillies

Current situation:

Matt Vierling had a brief stint with the big club earlier this year, but he only managed to get seven at-bats across six games on the MLB roster. Back with Triple-A Lehigh Valley for now, Vierling has displayed a well-rounded game in the minors this year that should continue to earn him additional opportunities at the MLB level. He's also shown a lot of positional versatility, handling all three outfield spots as well as 1st base and 3rd base during the course of the season.

Nick Gordon, 2B/SS/CF - Minnesota Twins

Current situation:

Former first rounder Nick Gordon earned his MLB debut this season after a stint at Triple-A where he was above league average in every Outsider category. Gordon, 25, has displayed his all-around value in his time with the MLB club this year. Always a solid defensive middle infielder, the Twins shifted Gordon to primarily handle center field duties, where he's been surprisingly competent despite the fact that he hadn't handled the position professionally before this year. Gordon's fantasy calling card will be getting on base and stealing bags, which he's flashed a bit of already this year (five stolen bases from six attempts).

Hoy Park, OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

Current situation:

2021 has been a bit of a whirlwind for this skilled outfielder. Hoy Park made a one game MLB debut for the Yankees this year, before being traded to the Pirates for reliever Clay Holmes. Park was signed as an international free agent out of South Korea by the Yankees in 204. He's always shown a well-rounded game in the minors, but a productive bat has kind of been the missing ingredient here. That bat has seemed to break out a bit for Park in his time in Triple-A this year, where his 137 estimated Barrel%+ has been well above average.

Jonny Deluca, OF - Los Angeles Dodgers

Current situation:

I can't put together an Outsiders list without at least one random Dodgers prospect. This week, It is Jonny Deluca's turn! Deluca, 23, was recently called up to the High-A Great Lakes Loons. His statistical line from Low-A this year is a thing of beauty-well above average in every Outsider+ department, with a 115 Contact%+ his LOWEST measure. Deluca was the Dodgers 25th round selection out of the University of Oregon in the 2019 draft.

Stuart Fairchild, OF - Arizona Diamondbacks

Current situation:

Stuart Fairchild is back for another appearance on an Outsider hitter list this season. Fairchild has been up with the big club since July 6th after a strong performance in Triple-A to start the year. His MLB surface stats are rough, but he's also getting killed by an ungodly .125 BABIP. Hopefully he continues to get opportunities on a rebuilding D'backs club for the remainder of the 2021 season.

Kevin Smith, SS - Toronto Blue Jays

Current situation:

Outsider readers are probably sick of hearing this guy by now. In all seriousness, the Blue Jays' playoff chances are teetering at the moment in an always difficult AL East. The Yankees are making moves. The Blue Jays are giving at-bats at third base to Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, and Breyvic Valera. If it's me, I'm popping the cork on Kevin Smith and seeing what he can do to spark the club right now.

Kaden Polcovich, 2B - Seattle Mariners

Current situation:

Kaden Polcovich is another new face on the Outsider list this week. Polcovich, 22, was the Mariners 3rd round selection out of Oklahoma State University in the 2020 draft. His dad, Kevin, was a utility infielder for the 1990s Pittsburgh Pirates. Kaden has flashed a phenomenal plate approach (167 K:BB+) with some pop and speed this season. He's now posted double digit HRs and SBs this year, putting him firmly on my radar as an Outsider with upside going into the 2022 season.

Lolo Sanchez, OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

Current situation:

Lolo Sanchez was on my preseason radar due to his performance in 2019, and he's remained at or near the top of a number of Outsider lists all season long. This 22-year-old has done a little bit of everything as the everyday center fielder for a talented Greensboro Grasshoppers team. Do not be deterred by the batting average, it is mostly the result of a .255 BABIP. Looking past the average, his .371 OBP, 77% stolen base success rate, and 10.8% estimated barrel rate are all reasons to be really optimistic about Sanchez for dynasty leagues.

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