X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

The Grass Isn't Always Greener - NFL Free Agents Who Will Decrease in Value

There was major shake-up with NFL Free Agency this offseason, particularly at the running back position. When you think about team’s infuriating commitment to RBBC, all of the running backs that have been on the move in 2017 make sense. From a fantasy perspective though, it just makes it that much harder for owners to determine which backfields to buy in to.

There aren’t too many backfields where one player resolutely gets the lion's share of the carries, but these situations seem particularly precarious for these RB free agents.

Here's a look at some free agent runners that could see a decline in fantasy value for the 2017 season:

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Free Agents in Worse Situations for 2017

Adrian Peterson (RB, NO)

Peterson has proven time and time again that he is not the one you want to count out. His heavily chipped shoulder in the past has only led to exceedingly transcended expectations and rushing titles. Even though Peterson will once again be playing with a Hall-of-Fame caliber quarterback for the first time since 2009, the prospects of another bounce back fantasy season are a lot less favorable heading into the upcoming season. For the first time in his career, he will be a part of a system that is unapologetically pass-first, and his ground and pound game might not ever get the chance to take flight.

Of the Saints 69 possessions per game last year, Drew Brees passed the ball an average of 42 times, amounting to 62% of the offense. In 10 out of their 16 games Brees attempted at least 41 passes and topped 50 twice, and this has been the Saints’ formula since the beginning of the Sean Payton-Brees era. The team's second-to-last ranked points defense did the running game no favors, and airing it out became the only way that the Saints could stay in games. With indiscriminate splits across the board there was no telling which member of the backfield the touches would go to, and more often than not the team had to abandon the run by the fourth quarter.

It can be argued that without Brandin Cooks, and with what on paper looks to be an improved defense, the Saints could pass less this season. Even if this is the case though, this year’s Saints backfield is more convoluted than it’s been in the past, and there is no clear path or precedent for Peterson to come in and dominate touches. Even if incumbent Mark Ingram is unseated, he won’t be phased out completely. Despite receiving the brunt of Payton’s vitriol and spending stretches of quarters and games in the dog house, Ingram managed to have his most complete year in the league and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Add to this year’s mix the 3rd round draft pick Alvin Kamara. Even without a clearly defined role, he will undoubtedly make a push to find a place in in Payton’s system.

Serving as at best, one half of a rushing attack that only claims a 37% stake in the offense, there are no guarantees on how Peterson will be able to establish himself in NO. Peterson will always be AD and he will be a definite part of whatever the Saints intend to do this year, but the elite fantasy production that we have seen for so many years will take a devastating hit.

 

Latavius Murray (RB, MIN)

Peterson’s former team, the Minnesota Vikings will also be rolling out a new look backfield this year. Despite the fact that he is coming off of a career-best 12 touchdowns, expectations on what Murray will achieve with his new squad look dire even in the best light. Last year Murray was a part of an Oakland offense that was ninth-best in the league, and ran behind the fourth-ranked offensive line. Even with the two free agents and two draft picks that the Vikings have added to reupholster an o-line that was ranked 29th last year, Murray left an offense that is very clearly going in the right direction for a team that could continue struggle to move the ball downfield.

Murray will also become a part of a crowded committee with some very talented backs. While Jerick McKinnon is the only notable back to return to the Vikings from last year, Murray could be susceptible to becoming the third running back on the depth chart at any point during the season. McKinnon might lack the prototypical shape of a between-the-tackles back like Murray, but he has certainly carved a role for himself and is someone whose hands the Vikings will want to get the ball in. In addition, the Vikings traded up and gave up a fourth rounder to secure Dalvin Cook. While his adjustment to the NFL remains to be seen, it is clear that the Vikings value their second round pick and will want to throw as much action at him as he can handle in his rookie season.

With two rookies snapping at his heels in Oakland, Murray still only managed to have a small handful of really big games. Even with his niche on this team as a goal-line back looking somewhat safe for now, can we trust Sam Bradford to get this team inside the 20 coming off of a year when all of the Viking’s offensive drive stats consistently hovered around the very bottom of the league? Murray’s self-proclaimed “nose for the end zone” sentiments sound great and all, but his individual output in Minnesota looks to disappoint owners this year.

 

LeGarrette Blount (RB, PHI)

The inevitable step back that LeGarrette Blount seems to be headed for this year isn’t so much about the other players in the backfield. Quite simply, Blount is leaving a seasoned, grizzled Super Bowl team for one with a second year quarterback that faded down the stretch last year and was left on the outside of the playoffs looking in. No longer subject to Bellitricks, his production might be a little easier to predict, but still won’t be anywhere close to what it was when he was on an offense that had the fourth best touchdown per drive success rate.

While Blount scored 18 touchdowns by himself last year, the Eagles top three running backs combined to reach the end zone only 11 times with Carson Wentz adding two more. With new big body receiver additions and Wentz likely to progress this year, the Eagle’s rushing red zone opportunities might be even lower this year. While Blount is shifting to a backfield with considerably less talent and competition, that crowded backfield in New England was one of the many reasons Blount was able to perform as well as he did. With the constant change of pace and versatility that the Patriot’s backfield threw at opponents on each drive, defenses were often left on their toes reeling for whole drives allowing Blount to come in and effortlessly vulture touchdowns all year.

Before his most recent stint with the Patriots Blount had been middling around the league since his rookie season. It’s not at all unrealistic to think he might return to this form with his new team. Potential Blount owners would be holding on to a dream and will be quickly devastated if they are expecting the same kind of production this year in the Eagles backfield.

 

Peterson's, Murray's, and Blount’s current ADPs, 77, 116 and 73 respectively, more or less reflect the regression that is on the way. Once their teams get back together next month and all of the reports about how well they have been performing in camp start to leak out though, they will probably take a jump. The reality, however, is that there will be less-talented players on the board that will be in much better positions for fantasy success, so make sure you think thrice before pushing the button on this group of running backs.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Simon Edvinsson

to Miss a Couple of Weeks
Mikael Backlund

Signs Two-Year Extension
Connor Ingram

to Be Waived by Mammoth
Zach Hyman

Misses Start of Training Camp
Nick Paul

Out Until November
Kris Letang

Cleared for Training Camp
David Pastrnak

Out for Start of Training Camp
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Be Out Until December
NBA

Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
NBA

Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP