X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

The Grass Isn't Always Greener - NFL Free Agents Who Will Decrease in Value

There was major shake-up with NFL Free Agency this offseason, particularly at the running back position. When you think about team’s infuriating commitment to RBBC, all of the running backs that have been on the move in 2017 make sense. From a fantasy perspective though, it just makes it that much harder for owners to determine which backfields to buy in to.

There aren’t too many backfields where one player resolutely gets the lion's share of the carries, but these situations seem particularly precarious for these RB free agents.

Here's a look at some free agent runners that could see a decline in fantasy value for the 2017 season:

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

 

Free Agents in Worse Situations for 2017

Adrian Peterson (RB, NO)

Peterson has proven time and time again that he is not the one you want to count out. His heavily chipped shoulder in the past has only led to exceedingly transcended expectations and rushing titles. Even though Peterson will once again be playing with a Hall-of-Fame caliber quarterback for the first time since 2009, the prospects of another bounce back fantasy season are a lot less favorable heading into the upcoming season. For the first time in his career, he will be a part of a system that is unapologetically pass-first, and his ground and pound game might not ever get the chance to take flight.

Of the Saints 69 possessions per game last year, Drew Brees passed the ball an average of 42 times, amounting to 62% of the offense. In 10 out of their 16 games Brees attempted at least 41 passes and topped 50 twice, and this has been the Saints’ formula since the beginning of the Sean Payton-Brees era. The team's second-to-last ranked points defense did the running game no favors, and airing it out became the only way that the Saints could stay in games. With indiscriminate splits across the board there was no telling which member of the backfield the touches would go to, and more often than not the team had to abandon the run by the fourth quarter.

It can be argued that without Brandin Cooks, and with what on paper looks to be an improved defense, the Saints could pass less this season. Even if this is the case though, this year’s Saints backfield is more convoluted than it’s been in the past, and there is no clear path or precedent for Peterson to come in and dominate touches. Even if incumbent Mark Ingram is unseated, he won’t be phased out completely. Despite receiving the brunt of Payton’s vitriol and spending stretches of quarters and games in the dog house, Ingram managed to have his most complete year in the league and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Add to this year’s mix the 3rd round draft pick Alvin Kamara. Even without a clearly defined role, he will undoubtedly make a push to find a place in in Payton’s system.

Serving as at best, one half of a rushing attack that only claims a 37% stake in the offense, there are no guarantees on how Peterson will be able to establish himself in NO. Peterson will always be AD and he will be a definite part of whatever the Saints intend to do this year, but the elite fantasy production that we have seen for so many years will take a devastating hit.

 

Latavius Murray (RB, MIN)

Peterson’s former team, the Minnesota Vikings will also be rolling out a new look backfield this year. Despite the fact that he is coming off of a career-best 12 touchdowns, expectations on what Murray will achieve with his new squad look dire even in the best light. Last year Murray was a part of an Oakland offense that was ninth-best in the league, and ran behind the fourth-ranked offensive line. Even with the two free agents and two draft picks that the Vikings have added to reupholster an o-line that was ranked 29th last year, Murray left an offense that is very clearly going in the right direction for a team that could continue struggle to move the ball downfield.

Murray will also become a part of a crowded committee with some very talented backs. While Jerick McKinnon is the only notable back to return to the Vikings from last year, Murray could be susceptible to becoming the third running back on the depth chart at any point during the season. McKinnon might lack the prototypical shape of a between-the-tackles back like Murray, but he has certainly carved a role for himself and is someone whose hands the Vikings will want to get the ball in. In addition, the Vikings traded up and gave up a fourth rounder to secure Dalvin Cook. While his adjustment to the NFL remains to be seen, it is clear that the Vikings value their second round pick and will want to throw as much action at him as he can handle in his rookie season.

With two rookies snapping at his heels in Oakland, Murray still only managed to have a small handful of really big games. Even with his niche on this team as a goal-line back looking somewhat safe for now, can we trust Sam Bradford to get this team inside the 20 coming off of a year when all of the Viking’s offensive drive stats consistently hovered around the very bottom of the league? Murray’s self-proclaimed “nose for the end zone” sentiments sound great and all, but his individual output in Minnesota looks to disappoint owners this year.

 

LeGarrette Blount (RB, PHI)

The inevitable step back that LeGarrette Blount seems to be headed for this year isn’t so much about the other players in the backfield. Quite simply, Blount is leaving a seasoned, grizzled Super Bowl team for one with a second year quarterback that faded down the stretch last year and was left on the outside of the playoffs looking in. No longer subject to Bellitricks, his production might be a little easier to predict, but still won’t be anywhere close to what it was when he was on an offense that had the fourth best touchdown per drive success rate.

While Blount scored 18 touchdowns by himself last year, the Eagles top three running backs combined to reach the end zone only 11 times with Carson Wentz adding two more. With new big body receiver additions and Wentz likely to progress this year, the Eagle’s rushing red zone opportunities might be even lower this year. While Blount is shifting to a backfield with considerably less talent and competition, that crowded backfield in New England was one of the many reasons Blount was able to perform as well as he did. With the constant change of pace and versatility that the Patriot’s backfield threw at opponents on each drive, defenses were often left on their toes reeling for whole drives allowing Blount to come in and effortlessly vulture touchdowns all year.

Before his most recent stint with the Patriots Blount had been middling around the league since his rookie season. It’s not at all unrealistic to think he might return to this form with his new team. Potential Blount owners would be holding on to a dream and will be quickly devastated if they are expecting the same kind of production this year in the Eagles backfield.

 

Peterson's, Murray's, and Blount’s current ADPs, 77, 116 and 73 respectively, more or less reflect the regression that is on the way. Once their teams get back together next month and all of the reports about how well they have been performing in camp start to leak out though, they will probably take a jump. The reality, however, is that there will be less-talented players on the board that will be in much better positions for fantasy success, so make sure you think thrice before pushing the button on this group of running backs.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jaylen Johnson

Chargers Place Jaylen Johnson on PUP List
Dereck Lively II

Undergoes Right-Foot Surgery Tuesday
Kendrick Bourne

Kayshon Boutte Fighting for Final Spots
Isaiah Collier

Logs a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Monday
DeMario Douglas

Kyle Williams "Locks" for Receiving Corps
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Finalizing Massive Extension
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Colts Expected to Ease Anthony Richardson Sr. Back in
Devin Carter

Posts 17 Points Versus Suns
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 17 Points in Summer League Loss
Terry McLaurin

Undecided on Whether he Will Report to Training Camp
Colston Loveland

Says his Shoulder is 100 Percent
Harrison Ingram

has Impressive Outing Against Jazz
Sam Williams

has Potential to be Elite Edge Rusher
Shemar Stewart

Considering Going Back to College?
Jahmyr Gibbs

Lions Want Jahmyr Gibbs "More Involved" in Passing Game
Jordan Addison

Could be Facing Three-Game Suspension
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Kyle Filipowski

Records 35-Point Double-Double Against Spurs
Kel'el Ware

Dominates Against Celtics
Kon Knueppel

Gets Going Monday
Matas Buzelis

Puts Up 28 Points in Win Over Pacers
Reed Sheppard

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
Paul George

Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Najee Harris

Likely to Miss Time at Start of Training Camp
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Collin Morikawa

Misses The Cut at Genesis Scottish Open
Hideki Matsuyama

Finishes Tied For 13th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooks Koepka

Finishes Tied For 32nd at LIV Andalucia
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For 34th at Genesis Scottish Open
Jason Day

Misses The Cut at John Deere Classic
Ludvig Aberg

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Cam Taylor-Britt

has Benefited From Addition of Al Golden
Rome Odunze

Could Take Off in Year 2
RJ Harvey

to Get "Significant" Work in Broncos' Passing Game
Jackson Powers-Johnson

More Comfortable Heading into Year 2
Luke McCaffrey

In Line for Larger Role?
Braelon Allen

Jets Viewing Braelon Allen as Long-Term Starter?
Joel Embiid

Participating in Partial Basketball Activities
Victor Wembanyama

Officially Cleared to Return After Blood-Clot Recovery
Mike Williams

Heading to PUP List
Garrett Wilson

Lands Historic Deal
Colston Loveland

Shoulder "Good" After Surgery
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Kel'el Ware

Collects 21 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Cam Spencer

Contract Being Restructured
Drew Timme

Scores 30 Points in Summer League Loss to Wizards
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Alexandre Sarr

Logs Impressive Outing in Summer League Action on Sunday
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Kyle Filipowski

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss to Warriors
Cody Williams

Collects 22 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF