👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

The Grass Isn't Always Greener - NFL Free Agents Who Will Decrease in Value

There was major shake-up with NFL Free Agency this offseason, particularly at the running back position. When you think about team’s infuriating commitment to RBBC, all of the running backs that have been on the move in 2017 make sense. From a fantasy perspective though, it just makes it that much harder for owners to determine which backfields to buy in to.

There aren’t too many backfields where one player resolutely gets the lion's share of the carries, but these situations seem particularly precarious for these RB free agents.

Here's a look at some free agent runners that could see a decline in fantasy value for the 2017 season:

Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!

 

Free Agents in Worse Situations for 2017

Adrian Peterson (RB, NO)

Peterson has proven time and time again that he is not the one you want to count out. His heavily chipped shoulder in the past has only led to exceedingly transcended expectations and rushing titles. Even though Peterson will once again be playing with a Hall-of-Fame caliber quarterback for the first time since 2009, the prospects of another bounce back fantasy season are a lot less favorable heading into the upcoming season. For the first time in his career, he will be a part of a system that is unapologetically pass-first, and his ground and pound game might not ever get the chance to take flight.

Of the Saints 69 possessions per game last year, Drew Brees passed the ball an average of 42 times, amounting to 62% of the offense. In 10 out of their 16 games Brees attempted at least 41 passes and topped 50 twice, and this has been the Saints’ formula since the beginning of the Sean Payton-Brees era. The team's second-to-last ranked points defense did the running game no favors, and airing it out became the only way that the Saints could stay in games. With indiscriminate splits across the board there was no telling which member of the backfield the touches would go to, and more often than not the team had to abandon the run by the fourth quarter.

It can be argued that without Brandin Cooks, and with what on paper looks to be an improved defense, the Saints could pass less this season. Even if this is the case though, this year’s Saints backfield is more convoluted than it’s been in the past, and there is no clear path or precedent for Peterson to come in and dominate touches. Even if incumbent Mark Ingram is unseated, he won’t be phased out completely. Despite receiving the brunt of Payton’s vitriol and spending stretches of quarters and games in the dog house, Ingram managed to have his most complete year in the league and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Add to this year’s mix the 3rd round draft pick Alvin Kamara. Even without a clearly defined role, he will undoubtedly make a push to find a place in in Payton’s system.

Serving as at best, one half of a rushing attack that only claims a 37% stake in the offense, there are no guarantees on how Peterson will be able to establish himself in NO. Peterson will always be AD and he will be a definite part of whatever the Saints intend to do this year, but the elite fantasy production that we have seen for so many years will take a devastating hit.

 

Latavius Murray (RB, MIN)

Peterson’s former team, the Minnesota Vikings will also be rolling out a new look backfield this year. Despite the fact that he is coming off of a career-best 12 touchdowns, expectations on what Murray will achieve with his new squad look dire even in the best light. Last year Murray was a part of an Oakland offense that was ninth-best in the league, and ran behind the fourth-ranked offensive line. Even with the two free agents and two draft picks that the Vikings have added to reupholster an o-line that was ranked 29th last year, Murray left an offense that is very clearly going in the right direction for a team that could continue struggle to move the ball downfield.

Murray will also become a part of a crowded committee with some very talented backs. While Jerick McKinnon is the only notable back to return to the Vikings from last year, Murray could be susceptible to becoming the third running back on the depth chart at any point during the season. McKinnon might lack the prototypical shape of a between-the-tackles back like Murray, but he has certainly carved a role for himself and is someone whose hands the Vikings will want to get the ball in. In addition, the Vikings traded up and gave up a fourth rounder to secure Dalvin Cook. While his adjustment to the NFL remains to be seen, it is clear that the Vikings value their second round pick and will want to throw as much action at him as he can handle in his rookie season.

With two rookies snapping at his heels in Oakland, Murray still only managed to have a small handful of really big games. Even with his niche on this team as a goal-line back looking somewhat safe for now, can we trust Sam Bradford to get this team inside the 20 coming off of a year when all of the Viking’s offensive drive stats consistently hovered around the very bottom of the league? Murray’s self-proclaimed “nose for the end zone” sentiments sound great and all, but his individual output in Minnesota looks to disappoint owners this year.

 

LeGarrette Blount (RB, PHI)

The inevitable step back that LeGarrette Blount seems to be headed for this year isn’t so much about the other players in the backfield. Quite simply, Blount is leaving a seasoned, grizzled Super Bowl team for one with a second year quarterback that faded down the stretch last year and was left on the outside of the playoffs looking in. No longer subject to Bellitricks, his production might be a little easier to predict, but still won’t be anywhere close to what it was when he was on an offense that had the fourth best touchdown per drive success rate.

While Blount scored 18 touchdowns by himself last year, the Eagles top three running backs combined to reach the end zone only 11 times with Carson Wentz adding two more. With new big body receiver additions and Wentz likely to progress this year, the Eagle’s rushing red zone opportunities might be even lower this year. While Blount is shifting to a backfield with considerably less talent and competition, that crowded backfield in New England was one of the many reasons Blount was able to perform as well as he did. With the constant change of pace and versatility that the Patriot’s backfield threw at opponents on each drive, defenses were often left on their toes reeling for whole drives allowing Blount to come in and effortlessly vulture touchdowns all year.

Before his most recent stint with the Patriots Blount had been middling around the league since his rookie season. It’s not at all unrealistic to think he might return to this form with his new team. Potential Blount owners would be holding on to a dream and will be quickly devastated if they are expecting the same kind of production this year in the Eagles backfield.

 

Peterson's, Murray's, and Blount’s current ADPs, 77, 116 and 73 respectively, more or less reflect the regression that is on the way. Once their teams get back together next month and all of the reports about how well they have been performing in camp start to leak out though, they will probably take a jump. The reality, however, is that there will be less-talented players on the board that will be in much better positions for fantasy success, so make sure you think thrice before pushing the button on this group of running backs.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Davante Adams

Glaring Opportunity to Sell High on Davante Adams?
Jordan Addison

Can Jordan Addison Overcome Ugly Quarterback Situation?
Emeka Egbuka

a Trade Target in Some Dynasty Leagues
Alec Pierce

Stock Rising Following Payday
Michael Pittman Jr.

Gets a Fresh Start in Pittsburgh
Rhamondre Stevenson

an Affordable Target in Dynasty Leagues
Kyle Larson

Should not be Underestimated for the Win at Kansas
Cooper Kupp

Two-Time Super Bowl Champion Cooper Kupp has Become a Fantasy Afterthought
Jaylen Warren

A New Running Mate is Business as Usual for Jaylen Warren
Christian McCaffrey

is Still Fantasy's Ultimate Gamble
Michael Penix Jr.

Is Michael Penix Jr. Entering a Make-or-Break Season?
Denny Hamlin

Can Denny Hamlin Dominate at Kansas Again?
NASCAR

Christoper Bell Should Contend for First Win at Kansas
Joel Eriksson Ek

Powers Minnesota Past Dallas in Opening Game
Tyler Reddick

Fastest in Practice and Qualifying for Kansas Race
Ryan Blaney

Could Score another Top-10 Finish at Kansas
Ty Gibbs

Poised to Continue Hot Streak at Kansas
Logan Stankoven

Makes Big Impact in Carolina's Game 1 Victory
Chris Buescher

Always Consistent, Has Speed Heading Into Kansas
William Byron

is A Solid DFS Option for Kansas Lineups
Carson Hocevar

Poised for Career-Best Run at Kansas
Porter Martone

Nets Game-Winning Goal to Defeat Pittsburgh
Frederik Andersen

Shuts Out Ottawa in Game 1
Chase Briscoe

Is Chase Briscoe Worth Rostering for DFS at Kansas?
Cincinnati Bengals

Dexter Lawrence Traded to Bengals for 10th Overall Pick
Chase Elliott

Is A Favorable DFS Option for Kansas Lineups
Matt Boldy

Delivers Huge Game 1 Performance in Win
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano be Considered Playable In DFS This Week at Kansas?
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace is A Favorable Driver to Consider for Kansas Lineups
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain A Worthy DFS Option for Kansas?
Brad Keselowski

Could Brad Keselowski be A Sneaky DFS Option for Kansas?
Daniel Suarez

Should DFS Managers Roster Daniel Suarez at Kansas?
Dylan Harper

is Ready for Sunday's Game
Grayson Allen

is Questionable for Sunday's Game
Mark Williams

is Questionable for Game 1 on Sunday
Reed Sheppard

Moves into Starting Five on Saturday
Kevin Durant

is Ruled Out for Game 1 on Saturday
Stuart Skinner

Starting Game 1 Against Flyers
Alexandre Carrier

Back at Practice
Jared McCann

Undergoes Lower-Body Procedure
Andrei Kuzmenko

Activated From Injured Reserve
Victor Hedman

Out for Game 1 on Sunday
William Karlsson

Unavailable for Start of First-Round Series
Quinn Hughes

Available Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Cleared for Game 1
Jonathon Brooks

Buy Window is Still Open for Jonathon Brooks
NFL

Skyler Bell Projects More as an NFL Contributor Than Fantasy Difference-Maker
NFL

Can Chris Brazzell II Find More NFL Success Than Past Tennessee Receivers?
Quinshon Judkins

Brings High Floor but Low Ceiling into Second Season
George Kittle

Has Become a High-Risk Bargain
NFL

Eric McAlister's Dynasty Value in Question Coming Off Pre-Draft Injury
Jhoan Duran

Placed on 15-Day Injured List With Oblique Strain
Brian Thomas Jr.

Can Brian Thomas Jr. Rebound After Down Year in 2025?
Patrick Mahomes

Dynasty Value in Question After Injury?
Tre' Harris

Offers Buy-Low Upside for Dynasty Managers
Braelon Allen

Still Offers Dynasty Upside Despite Lost Season in 2025
Kyle Stowers

Will be Activated on Sunday
Jesper Wallstedt

to Start in Goal for Minnesota on Saturday
LaMelo Ball

Scores 23 Points in Season-Ending Loss
Jordan Goodwin

Fills Stat Sheet in Play-In Win
Paolo Banchero

Powers Magic Into Playoffs
Jalen Green

Drops 36 Points to Clinch Playoff Spot
Amen Thompson

Off Injury Report for Playoff Opener
Jabari Smith Jr.

Cleared After Resting in Season Finale
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Cleared for Game 1 Against Lakers
Logan Stankoven

Presumed Ready for Game 1
Max Muncy

has Another Multi-Homer Game at Coors Field
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Expected to Make Season Debut on Saturday
Austin Riley

Hits Two Home Runs in Shutout Win Over Phillies
Daulton Varsho

Removed Early on Friday With Knee Discomfort
Aaron Gordon

Available for Game 1 Against Timberwolves
Julius Randle

Cleared for Playoffs
Jaxson Hayes

Available Saturday Night
Grayson Allen

Will Play Against Warriors
Kristaps Porzingis

Cleared for Friday's Game
Kevin Durant

Iffy for Saturday's Game 1
Mark Williams

Won't Play Friday Night
Spencer Jones

is Questionable for Game 1 on Saturday
Peyton Watson

is Ruled Out for Game 1 on Saturday
Edwin Uceta

Having More Shoulder Issues, "Shut Down for a Few Days"
Josh Hader

Moved to 60-Day Injured List
Willson Contreras

Returns to Red Sox Lineup on Friday
Daniel Palencia

Goes on 15-Day Injured List With Oblique Strain
Juan Soto

Still on Track to Return Next Week
Los Angeles Angels

Garret Anderson Dies at 53 Years Old
Mike Malott

A Favorite At UFC Winnipeg
Gilbert Burns

Set For UFC Winnipeg Main Event
Kyler Phillips

Set UFC Winnipeg Co-Main Event
Charles Jourdain

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Jai Herbert

An Underdog At UFC Winnipeg
Mandel Nallo

Set For His UFC Debut
Karine Silva

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Looks To Bounce Back
Robert Thomas

Wraps Up Season With a Hat Trick
Macklin Celebrini

Establishes Sharks' New Scoring Record
Scott Wedgewood

Keeps Kraken From Scoring Thursday
Nathan MacKinnon

Wins Rocket Richard Trophy With 53 Goals
Connor McDavid

Secures Sixth Art Ross Trophy With Four-Assist Performance
Connor Dewar

Ready for Game 1
Parker Messick

Flirts With No-Hitter in Latest Gem Against Orioles
Mike Trout

Hits Five Homers in Series Versus Yankees
Spencer Arrighetti

Fans 10 in Season Debut, to Remain a Focal Point in Rotation?
Nick Pivetta

Dealing With Flexor Strain, Could Miss Months
Nico Hoerner

Homers, Drive in Five in Win Over Phillies
Shota Imanaga

Strikes Out 11 in First Win of the Season
Sal Stewart

Continues to Hit, Goes Deep Twice on Wednesday
Shohei Ohtani

Strikes Out 10 in Win Over Mets
Shohei Ohtani

Will Pitch on Wednesday, But Won't DH
CFB

Michigan Lands Commitment From Quarterback Kamden Lopati
Sahith Theegala

Brings Strong Form Into Harbour Town
Wyndham Clark

Needs Putter to Show Up at RBC Heritage
Jacob Bridgeman

Looks to Return to Elite Form at Harbour Town
J.J. Spaun

a Volatile Option at RBC Heritage
PGA

Sungjae Im Offers High-Upside Value at RBC Heritage
Matt Fitzpatrick

Set for Another Strong Showing at RBC Heritage
Jason Day

Eyes Bounce-Back After Sunday Struggles at the Masters
Akshay Bhatia

Looking to Rebound at Harbour Town
Cameron Young

Hoping to Secure Second Win of Season at RBC Heritage
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Win Again at RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry

Has Disappointing Final Round at Masters
Viktor Hovland

Hoping to Build on Final Round at Masters
Brian Harman

Struggling For Consistency Heading to RBC Heritage
Chris Gotterup

Putting Together Outstanding 2026 Season
Justin Thomas

Looks to Defend in Hilton Head
Jordan Spieth

in Search of Improved Putting at RBC Heritage
Marco Penge

May Continue Up-and-Down Ride at the RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele

Could Get The Job Done at RBC Heritage
Jake Knapp

Keeps Building Strong Results in 2026
Kurt Kitayama

Trying to Regain Form From Florida
Collin Morikawa

Continues to be a Scary DFS Play at RBC Heritage
CFB

Tramell Jones Jr. Outperforms Aaron Philo During Florida's Spring Scrimmage
CFB

Keelon Russell Flashes in Alabama's Spring Game
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF