RADIO
Through seven weeks of NFL football, the 43.4 total points per game average is the lowest it has been since 2010. This, of course, is resulting in much lower fantasy matchups, but it's making what to do with the backend of our fantasy rosters an absolute nightmare. In recent years, fantasy managers seemed to be swimming in waiver wire options week after week due to the offensive explosion. This year, not so much.
That impacts who fantasy managers cut, as well. A weaker waiver wire likely means more of our rostered players are getting the benefit of the doubt or maybe switching out the devil you know for the devil you don't just isn't worth it. Oftentimes, if I'm forced with a difficult waiver wire decision and I can't decide between two players, I often stick with the player currently on my roster. For starters, he was there already for a reason. Or at least I thought so and two, I figure if I'm going to go down, I might as well go down with the ship I rode in on. It's been a crazy, frustrating and abnormal fantasy season so far, but all you can do is stay active and keep turning over your roster where and when you can until you find the right combination.
As always, we can't possibly go over every cuttable player and while we do our best to accommodate all different leagues and sizes, it's very difficult to do so. With that said, if you have any specific team-related questions about who to cut or add, be sure to give me a follow on Twitter, @RobFFSlayer and reach out to me anytime. I'm always willing to answer any fantasy football questions you may have. Let's get to it.
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Quarterbacks to Drop for Fantasy Football
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders – 83% Rostered
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – 73% Rostered
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos – 64% Rostered
Through eight weeks of football, Russell Wilson is the QB20, Derek Carr is the QB21, and Matthew Stafford is the QB22. These three quarterbacks have played 21 weeks of football, collectively. They have exactly one game of 20 or more fantasy points, which was done by Russell Wilson back in Week 4. They have 14 (!!!) weeks with fewer than 15 points. Wilson has five such games, Carr has four, and Stafford has five. Stafford and Wilson both have two games with fewer than 10 points, while Carr has just one.
It's not that these quarterbacks shouldn't be rostered at any time, it's simply that their rostership percentages are much too high considering the production they've provided their fantasy managers. Fantasy managers are best treating each one of these quarterbacks as nothing more than streamers. They are no longer weekly starters. In Carr's defense, he likely was not drafted as one, but Stafford and Wilson most definitely were.
That's undoubtedly one of the hardest things to do in fantasy football, adjusting our preconceived notions. Each one of these signal-callers had a lot of promise entering the 2022 season, but for a myriad of reasons, not a single one of them has lived up to their potential.
The Raiders are up against the Jaguars in Week 9, who have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. That puts him just on the cusp of the streaming radar, however, after back-to-back weeks with fewer than 15 points and his Week 8 performance where he didn't even manage two points, it's hard to trust the Las Vegas passer even in a positive matchup. Hunter Renfrow has been dreadful this season and Darren Waller's availability is up in the air.
The Rams will go up against the Buccaneers who have allowed the 15th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Much like Carr, he's right on the cusp of the streaming radar, but prior to his 17.38 performance in Week 8 against the 49ers, he had four straight weeks with fewer than 12 points. Denver is on bye in Week 9, which makes him an easy drop candidate.
Running Backs to Drop for Fantasy Football
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens – 61% Rostered
Fantasy managers are holding onto JK Dobbins once he finally returns from IR, but is he worth the hold? If you have an open IR spot, by all means, go ahead and keep holding. However, if you don't have IR spots or your IR spots are filled, Dobbins can safely be cut. Dobbins was returning from a catastrophic 2021 knee injury and while he avoided the PUP list early, Dobbins was clearly impacted by the injury.
Ravens’ standout RB J.K. Dobbins is expected to undergo arthroscopic knee surgery next week that would sideline him 4-6 weeks, per sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 21, 2022
Dobbins is not eligible to return to the lineup until Week 12 and at that time, he'll be five weeks out from the 4–6 week timeline. Assuming he sits out six weeks, that'll be Week 13 before fantasy managers can really put him back into their lineup. After his significant injury in 2021 and another knee surgery this season, there's no reason to believe the Ravens will lean on Dobbins to the point where he can be a dependable fantasy starter.
In three healthy games this season, he scored 29.7 half-PPR points, just under 10 PPG. However, it should be noted that 12 of those points came via touchdowns in the same game. While a lot of his appeal was his ability to score touchdowns in an explosive offense, with both Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards healthy that he'd be splitting carries with, how much touchdown upside would there be week to week? In the two games he didn't score, he finished with 5 and 4.4 points.
Wide Receivers to Drop for Fantasy Football
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders – 63% Rostered
It has been a brutal 2022 season for Hunter Renfrow and at this point, fantasy managers no longer need to feel obligated to keep him on their roster. Derek Carr and the Raiders offense have been much worse this season. Carr's completion percentage has decreased by 5.5% and his yards per game has fallen by 51 yards. With the addition of Davante Adams, having a smaller pie to go around has done no favors for Renfrow's fantasy value.
Renfrow has been active in five games this season and he has yet to score eight half-PPR in any game this season. He's scored fewer than five points in three contests. He has yet to record more than 60 yards in any game. Fantasy managers were likely drafting Renfrow more in PPR scoring leaders, believing his role as the Raiders' slot receiver would leave to high reception totals. However, he has three receptions or less in three contests and has just one game with more than five. He's averaging 2.53 fewer targets per game this season, a dangerous
We need to be fair to Renfrow because he has struggled with injuries and hasn't been totally healthy as of late, but there's been virtually no upside with him and the floor has been dangerously low. With receivers such as Rondale Moore and Donovan Peoples-Jones hanging around on the waiver wire, fantasy managers likely will have options to upgrade their roster.
Tight Ends to Drop for Fantasy Football
Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings – 61% Rostered
Irv Smith was a fantasy sleeper this season and while he's been okay, he hasn't lived up to the offseason hype. He had offseason thumb surgery which limited his preseason action and left him operating mostly as a backup in Week 1. However, since that time, Smith has operated as the team's primary receiving tight end and while there have been some positives, he's mostly disappointed.
He scored 12.1 half-PPR points in Week 2 but has not scored more than nine points since then. From Weeks 3–8, he has three games with fewer than five fantasy points. One of the concerns for Smith was the level of target competition in Minnesota. Could Smith carve out a big enough role with guys like Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, and Dalvin Cook behind the alpha receiver, Justin Jefferson? Smith has just a 13.3% target share, but the bigger problem is his route run participation rate which is below 55%. If that wasn't enough...
Irv Smith Jr. Suffers High-Ankle Sprain https://t.co/Dupmp2TJHR
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) October 31, 2022
Due to his injury, there's no reason fantasy managers need to keep a mid-TE2 on their roster. He's not even worth a spot on your IR if you have other pressing needs.
Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers – 51% Rostered
Robert Tonyan has registered one big week this season, where he went off for 12 targets, 10 receptions, and 90 yards. That has been his only game with more than 10 half-PPR points. He has six games with fewer than seven points. He has just one game with more than 40 yards. There's simply no upside here. Fantasy managers were likely hoping for some of his 2021 magic when he made his home in the end zone and with the wide-open group of pass-catchers in Green Bay, it was a worthwhile dart throw, but it's time to move on.
While everyone complains about how few targets Kyle Pitts is getting, Tonyan is actually getting less on a per-game basis. Tonyan's five targets per game rank 18th among tight ends. He's 16th in receiving yards and has just one touchdown through eight weeks. His average depth of target is just 4.7 yards, showing that the Packers are not using him down the field whatsoever, which drastically limits his upside. What's worse, however, is his 52.3% route run participation rate.
It's hard enough for a tight end to become fantasy relevant, but it's virtually impossible when you're not running a high number of routes. It's even more difficult when you're a bottom-tier offense that is failing to score points. The non-elite tight ends often make their living on their ability to score touchdowns and the touchdown opportunity in Green Bay right now is very limited. Fantasy managers are better off looking to add Greg Dulcich or Evan Engram.
On the Hot Seat
Damien Harris, New England Patriots – 81% Rostered
If you're playing in shallower leagues, Damien Harris can safely be cut. This has officially become Rhamondre Stevenson's backfield and there's very little reason to expect that to change the rest of the season. However, in leagues of 12 teams or more, fantasy managers should continue holding Damien Harris at least for the time being. He's still making his way back from a hamstring injury that was originally reported as being serious with the potential to keep him out for several weeks. Harris managed to return in just one, but it's possible he's still not 100%.
In his second game back from a hamstring injury, Damien Harris did eat into Rhamondre Stevenson's snaps a bit more, but Stevenson still played 63% and handled 23 of the team's 36 backfield touches (for 143 total yards).
Harris: 41%, 13 touches, 52 yards.
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) October 31, 2022
Harris's name has come up in trade rumors in recent weeks, which is somewhat surprising considering head coach Bill Belichick's history of using running back by committees. However, if the Patriots want to lean completely on Stevenson, it makes sense to get what they can from Harris. A trade seems somewhat unlikely, however. If he is traded, there's a good chance his fantasy value will climb as fantasy managers often see the best-case scenario when a player moves to a new team and that increase in value could create a selling window. For that reason alone, he's worth holding.
Even if he's not moved though, Harris remains a high-quality handcuff who will continue to be ranked as a touchdown-dependent RB3. He's not someone you can feel overly confident putting into your starting lineup, but with the way New England relies on the running back, he should continue to be good for 4–6 points per game with a decent shot at finding the end zone. That kind of production deserves to be on the bench, but it's low-level standalone value with the RB2 contingency value in the event of a Stevenson injury.
However, if Stevenson continues to distance himself in the coming weeks or if Stevenson receives the vast amount of red zone carries, which have a much higher rate of touchdown-scoring success, fantasy managers could be forced to cut him in the near future. He's on the hot seat right now, but he's still best holding onto until you're in a 10 or 8-team league.
Hold On
James Robinson, New York Jets – 86% Rostered
The results from Week 8 were to be expected. James Robinson had just been traded from the Jaguars to the Jets and expectations needed to be held in check. As much as the NFL lives in a "what have you done for me lately" mentality, we often live in the same place as fantasy managers. In this circumstance, Week 8 can be completely thrown out.
Jets RB snaps in the first game without Breece Hall (ACL) and with James Robinson:
* Michael Carter 33 (20 routes)
* Ty Johnson 19 (10 routes)
* James Robinson 13 (2 routes)— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 31, 2022
Robinson was no doubt still learning the playbook and the Jets' offensive scheme, which resulted in a smaller-than-normal snap share, but the Jets traded for him for a reason. The most likely scenario moving forward is for Robinson to work as the early down back for the Jets, while Carter mixes in occasionally and operates as the primary pass-catching back. Fantasy managers should expect Robinson to get the majority of the short-yardage and goal-line carries.
The Jets aren't a great rushing football team and they'll no doubt be worse without Breece Hall, but Robinson should still handle 10–15 touches per game and when they do get close to scoring, it'll likely be Robinson who finishes with more red zone carries than Carter for the rest of the season. That kind of utilization will keep him in the RB3 range with RB2 upside when he happens to find the end zone.
It was an ugly week with his new team, but that outcome should have been the expectation. If his role doesn't grow in Week 9 we'll be worried, but right now there's nothing to be concerned about.
Fantasy Football Players to Sell
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers – 92% Rostered
Brandon Aiyuk is on an absolute heater and I don't fault anyone for wanting to hang onto him and seeing how long it lasts, but fantasy football is all about value and cashing in at the right time. You gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em. I'm not saying you definitely have to fold Aiyuk, but it makes all the sense in the world to attach Aiyuk to another player on your roster to see if you can upgrade him. If Aiyuk is on your bench and you're hurting at running back, maybe there's a WR for RB trade that makes sense.
Aiyuk has had 28 targets in the past three weeks, but a lot of things have broke in his favor. In Week 7, newly acquired Christian McCaffrey played just 28% of the team's overall snaps. In Week 8, Deebo Samuel sat out due to a hamstring injury. In Week 6, Aiyuk happened to find the end zone twice. He has scored 24.3, 11.7, and 17.1 half-PPR points in the last three weeks, but it's hard to expect his target volume to stay where it's been with CMC fully incorporated into the offense and with a healthy Samuel and George Kittle. It's highly unlikely this offense with Jimmy Garoppollo at the helm is good enough to support four players.
That means, as good as his last three weeks have been, there's going to be a lull coming. Aiyuk is averaging 6.9 targets per game, Kittle is at 6.5, and Deebo is at 7.7. Those numbers include just one game with CMC. It's fair to assume all of their target numbers are likely to drop. From Weeks 1–7, 49er running backs averaged just 3.7 targets per game, combined. In Week 8, McCaffrey racked up nine. This becomes a simple math equation.
Fantasy managers cannot expect the overall RB targets in San Francisco to increase from 3.7 to 6–8 per game with no decrease to the auxiliary players. The other concern is that Aiyuk isn't even the No. 1 receiver for this offense – that's Deebo. That means on any given week, Aiyuk could potentially be fourth in targets.
Aiyuk is a fantastic football player, but the passing volume in San Francisco, combined with the insane level of target competition is going to make it virtually impossible for Aiyuk to keep playing at this level. The time to cash in is now.
Reddit Requests
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons – 75% Rostered
There are plenty of fantasy managers wondering what in the world they should do with rookie Drake London. The answer is not an easy one. There's no question London is an incredibly talented football player. He displayed that in college. His draft capital indicates that and there's been plenty of evidence through the first eight weeks of his NFL career that he can absolutely play and potentially dominate in this league in the right situation. Atlanta, at least right now, is certainly not that. However, it's still not an easy thing to cut someone you know for a fact is good at football and there's nothing to indicate that London is not good at football.
Target share leaders over the last month
Davante Adams - 34.9%
Justin Jefferson - 33.3%
Tyreek Hill - 33.3%
Darnell Mooney - 31.8%
Cooper Kupp - 30.8%
CeeDee Lamb - 30.8%
D.J. Moore - 30.5%
Stefon Diggs - 29.7%
Drake London - 27.9%
A.J. Brown - 27.8%— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) October 25, 2022
Look at the company of players London finds himself in with regard to his ability to earn targets. The situation becomes even more difficult due to the way the former USC Trojan started off his NFL career. He scored 43.4 half-PPR points in his first three games, averaging 14.5 PPG. However, since that time, he has not eclipsed six points. He's failed to record five receptions in a game since Week 2 and over the past five weeks, he has not had more than 40 receiving yards. To make matters even worse, there's been very little reason for optimism. Over the last three weeks, he's recorded a total of just 10 targets and there is a reason for that...
Each team's weekly pass rate over expectation:
*The Falcons have had a PROE below -15% in each of the last 4 games
*Baltimore reverting back to years past with a -19.4% PROE in W7
*Cincy with a +20.5% and +23.1% PROE the past 2 weeks, the highest two single-game marks this season pic.twitter.com/711acSOMhe— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) October 25, 2022
The Falcons are operating an even more pass-averse offense than the Chicago Bears as of late. The Falcons simply are not throwing the ball enough where London has a chance to be successful, which leaves fantasy managers sitting between a rock and a hard place. What in the world do you do with a player whom you know to be very good at football, but due to their environment is not being given the opportunity to succeed?
In this situation, I find myself leaning toward talent. Situations can change, but the overall talent level of a particular player is unlikely to change all that much, especially mid-season. While fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting the Falcons to turn into the Bills, it wouldn't take a drastic change in their offensive approach to give London back WR3 potential.
We have seen how run-heavy the Bears started out the season over the first three weeks and they've slowly started to open it up in recent weeks. While they're still extremely run-heavy compared to the rest of the league, the increase has given Darnell Mooney the chance to be a productive fantasy player. As difficult as it is, I'd advise fantasy managers to continue holding London and hoping the Falcons pass the ball a little bit more in the coming weeks. If nothing else, a player of London's skill set is due for a big game at some point at which point they'll be afforded an opportunity to sell him.
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