RADIO
Week 1 always has a tendency to throw us a few curves. That’s the nature of dealing with a sample size of one. You’re going to get some funky stuff. The thing to remember is to try not to overreact. Yes, it’s important to pivot and admit when we got something wrong, but it’s also important to have some confidence in your original thesis, whatever that may be.
While we all want to check box scores, the most important thing after just one week is to check roles. Look at snaps played and routes run. This can help explain a dud (looking at you, Tee Higgins). Sometimes best moves are the ones we don’t make. Don’t make rash decisions. We want to make well-informed decisions and it’s hard to do that after just one week of action.
Deciding who to add to your team is always fun. There are oftentimes a lot of new players that pop up, especially in the early portion of the season. If you want to catch up on our Week 2 Waiver Edition, you can do that here. However, deciding who to cut can sometimes be a lot more difficult. Other times, it may provide a weird sense of relief. Hopefully, this article will help answer some of your questions about who to cut. If you have any specific questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message. My DMs are always open and I’m more than willing to answer questions.
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Quarterbacks to Cut in Week 2?
None. We’ll talk about Daniel Jones later in the article and why we should be preaching patience, but that’s also true for Geno Smith. Seattle got punched in the mouth. They didn’t respond. The best thing to do is chalk it up to a bad week — at least for right now — and move on. Better days are most likely ahead for both signal callers. Remember, we’re dealing with a sample size of one. We don’t want to overreact, especially with guys like Jones and Smith, whom the consensus was so high on.
Running Backs to Cut in Week 2?
Rashaad Penny, Philadelphia Eagles — 67% Rostered
If you follow a few fantasy football Twitter handles, you’re bound to remember the ridicule some Eagles’ beat writers took when they said Rashaad Penny was a cut candidate. Penny has a strong fan base due to his exceptional advanced rushing metrics. The problem is his availability and therefore, all of his advanced rushing metrics are based on very short sample sizes of a few games here and there over several years.
Y’all owe @EliotShorrParks a big apology
Kenneth Gainwell appears to be the Eagles’ starting running back, and he looks damn good
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) September 10, 2023
Throughout the offseason, Philly beat writers constantly stated Kenneth Gainwell was being treated as “the” guy. No one believed it. On and on it went until finally Week 1 arrived and Penny was a healthy inactive. Then Gainwell proceeded to play 62% of the snaps and handled 18 touches to D'Andre Swift’s two. Gainwell was “the” guy and Penny, by virtue of his healthy inactive, was likely on the roster bubble. Needless to say, he can safely be cut.
Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 2?
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers — 52% Rostered
Adam Thielen was a limited participant throughout the week leading up to Week 1 due to an ankle injury. Maybe that’s what impeded his production. Or maybe it’s because his yard per route run average has decreased each year since 2020 and he’s now 33 years old.
Is anyone actually clicking Adam Thielen's name in a best ball tourney?
Efficiency numbers last 3 szns:
YPRR: 1.86 > 1.63 > 1.03
Yards/target: 8.6 > 7.6 > 6.7
TPRR: 21.3% > 19.3% > 15%Entering age 33, set to play with a rookie QB. pic.twitter.com/nUA78NKvXy
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) July 6, 2023
Despite playing the most snaps of any Carolina receiver this past weekend and running 39 routes, Thielen was able to muster just two targets, which he turned into two receptions and 12 yards. There’s virtually no upside here unless he finds the end zone. Even then, we’re likely talking only 12 to 14 points because it’s hard to envision him accruing much more than 50 yards. Terrace Marshall Jr., Jonathan Mingo, Hayden Hurst, and Miles Sanders all out-targeted him. Fantasy managers can surely find someone with more weekly upside or long-term appeal. I’d rather roster a second defense for streaming purposes than Thielen.
Tight Ends to Cut in Week 2?
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams — 91% Rostered
Full disclosure, I have long been a Tyler Higbee “hater”. Those who like him constantly bring up his volume, but what has he ever done with it? He was TE12 in half-PPR last year with 104 targets. Only three other tight ends had more. He’s just not good. Without Cooper Kupp, many expected Higbee to lead the way, but his talent level never aligned with that belief.
Tyler Higbee recorded a team-high 24.7% target share without Cooper Kupp over his last seven games in 2022.
Rams target shares in Week 1:
Puka Nacua 40.5% (15)
Tutu Atwell 21.6% (8)
Van Jefferson 13.5% (5)
Higbee 8.1% (3)— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 11, 2023
Despite Kupp being on IR and running a route on 33 of 39 dropbacks, Higbee mustered just three targets. Tutu Atwell had more. Rookie Puka Nacua had more. Van Jefferson had more. The one positive Higbee could hang his hat on was volume, but that appears to be gone. If he could only muster three targets without Kupp, what happens when Kupp returns? If I’m a Higbee owner, I’m making a play for Hunter Henry, Luke Musgrave, Sam LaPorta, Jake Ferguson, or Hayden Hurst.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans — 70% Rostered
This one pains me as I was somewhat high on Dalton Schultz this offseason, since C.J. Stroud is a rookie, none of the running backs are great pass-catchers and the receivers are somewhat lacking. I didn’t think he’d be a stud, but I thought he’d be a dependable, volume play. After one week, I’m already willing to admit defeat.
While he did run 49 routes out of 54 dropbacks, Schultz managed just four targets. This was the same as Tank Dell and Noah Brown. The bigger problem was that Robert Woods had 10 and Nico Collins had 11. If those two are going to command such a large share of Stroud’s attention, there won’t be enough left to make Schultz fantasy-relevant. He finished with just two receptions and four yards. All the tight ends listed above that I’d rather have instead of Higbee, are true for Schultz as well.
Hold On
Daniel Jones, New York Giants — 87% Rostered
We’re not going to overreact to a game in a torrential downpour where the Giants had a field goal blocked and turned into a touchdown. We’re especially not going to overreact to that game when it comes against a top-five defense in the first game of the year. Deep breaths. It was an awful game, but considering the circumstances, we’re going to largely ignore this one and move on.
Daniel Jones was a quality passer last season. The volume wasn’t there and it was boring production, but considering he was learning a new system with one of the worst receiving groups in the league, he deserves credit for what he did. The more important thing, for fantasy purposes, is that he ran the ball last year and he did that again in Week 1.
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs — 95% Rostered
I actually came away encouraged by Isiah Pacheco’s utilization, even though none of it mattered in the box score. At first glance, it looked like an ugly three-way committee with Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but fantasy managers shouldn’t panic. That’s because Pacheco was limited for almost the entire training camp due to hand and shoulder injuries. This could have very well played a role in his lower touch total and CEH’s involvement.
Luckily, CEH did very little with his opportunity. He received six carries and finished with 22 yards. Pacheco was the more explosive and efficient runner last season. Pacheco’s lack of offseason availability may have given CEH a chance to carve out a role, but his limited production is unlikely to have done much.
On the bright side, Pacheco ran more routes than McKinnon and had double the amount of targets as McKinnon (four to two). That’s great news for his future fantasy prospects. Hopefully, as he works his way back into shape, those six carries CEH got will see their way to Pacheco. It’s likely only a matter of time before that happens. The whole Chiefs’ offense was a mess without Kelce, but Pacheco’s passing game involvement and CEH’s poor performance should be viewed as positives moving forward.
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers — 88% Rostered
If it wasn’t for Aaron Jones’ hamstring injury, A.J. Dillon may have found his way into being an outright cut. I’m just not sure Dillon is actually good. His advanced metrics last season were very poor. He offers very little explosiveness. Last year, just 3.2% of his carries went for 15+ yards. This ranked 43rd among running backs. He is a slow, boring plodder.
Week 1 rush yards over expected (per @nextgenstats):
Christian McCaffrey +56
Austin Ekeler +55
Nick Chubb +22
Bijan Robinson +20
Joe Mixon +20----
Cam Akers -41
Rachaad White -38
Jerome Ford -24
AJ Dillon -21— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) September 11, 2023
In Week 1, it was more of the same for Dillon. He finished with 19 yards on 13 carries. He just looked slow. He rarely got extra yards and struggled to generate any positive movement. He cannot make people miss and his YAC (yards after contact) ability is exaggerated. He’s also limited as a pass-catcher. Fantasy managers need to hold to see what Jones’ status is and in theory, he’s still a worthwhile handcuff. However, based on what he showed us last year and this past weekend, the ceiling in the event of a hypothetical Jones injury is not as high as we would like to think.
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens — 68% Rostered
Rashod Bateman missed part of training camp with a foot injury and hopefully, it was this that played a role in his alarming snap count. He played just 25 of 64 snaps. That’s a “yikes!” He also ran just 17 routes on 30 dropbacks. That’s also very concerning, so why is he a hold?
He’s been a productive player the past two years when he’s been healthy. He’s still just in his third year. He’s still very talented. While rookie Zay Flowers isn’t going anywhere, Odell Beckham Jr.’s production was very modest. He finished with just two receptions and 37 yards on 59 snaps and 30 routes. Bateman almost matched that production (2/35) on half the opportunities.
The other thing is J.K. Dobbins' injury. In 2021, when Dobbins tore his ACL in the preseason, Jackson averaged 34.3 pass attempts per game over 11 starts. In his three other seasons as a starter, he hadn’t thrown more than 27.5 pass attempts per game. The lack of a running game could increase the passing volume drastically and if Bateman can eventually move ahead of OBJ, he’s got a shot at being valuable. He’s worth holding to see how this offense looks without Dobbins.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans — 73% Rostered
Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions and failed to muster 200 yards passing on 34 attempts. Chigoziem Okonkwo didn’t finish with a single reception. By all accounts, this was a brutal Week 1 performance in what many thought could be a breakout season for the second-year tight end.
Chiggy Okonkwo should still be running sheesh pic.twitter.com/EvLPWN83As
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 11, 2023
He drew a very difficult Week 1 matchup. The Saints allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends last season. They were a top-10 defense overall last season. Chig’s role, however, was encouraging. He played 52 of 63 snaps and ran a route on 30 of 40 dropbacks. He only mustered two targets, but as long as he continues to play as much as he did in Week 1, the fantasy points should follow.
On The Hot Seat
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders — 86% Rostered
Coming into the 2023 season, Gibson was receiving a lot of hype in the hopes that he would become new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s new pass-catching running back, similar to McKinnon in Kansas City. There was also his history of production and Brian Robinson Jr.’s pedestrian rookie season. However, if Week 1 was any indication, it’s going to be difficult for Gibson to be a fantasy-relevant player as long as Robinson is healthy.
Should look better in trailing game scripts. But still a tough start for Antonio Gibson.
Loses a fumble. Gets out-snapped by Brian Robinson 43-25. Gets out-touched by Brian Robinson 20-4. Sees 1 target on 40 Sam Howell dropbacks.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 11, 2023
Robinson played 43 snaps to Gibson’s 25. It was virtually a 50/50 split on passing work, with Robinson running 18 routes to Gibson’s 17. Robinson had two targets to Gibson’s one. However, on the ground, Robinson had 19 carries. Gibson had three. Gibson played on just 35% of the snaps and handled just 14.8% of the running back touches. He’s still a worthwhile handcuff, but based on Week 1, that’s all he is.
Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs — 62% Rostered
Jerick McKinnon went all scorched earth to finish the 2022 season. He ended up averaging more points per game than Pacheco, even after Pacheco became the starter. With the pass-heavy approach the Chiefs employ, he seemed like an excellent late addition to any fantasy roster as a dependable PPR asset at running back. After Week 1, that’s a really tough sell.
As already noted, Pacheco ran more routes than McKinnon and doubled him up on targets (four to two). To make matters worse, Pacheco was effective with his targets, catching all four for 31 yards. McKinnon was able to corral one of his targets for 10 yards. McKinnon also did not see a single carry, with head coach Andy Reid giving not one, not two, but three different receivers a carry ahead of him. Definitely not a good start for McKinnon.
Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs — 65% Rostered
No questions about it. Week 1 was an awful, awful look for Skyy Moore. However, he did play the most snaps (45) and only Marquez Valdes-Scantling played more than 23. He also ran the second-most routes (29) only to MVS. No other receiver ran more than 18. However, despite this, he received just three targets. This ranked sixth on the team and Travis Kelce wasn’t even active. As bad as it was, fantasy managers should at least be giving Moore another week or two.
I came away encouraged with Skyy Moore’s role compared to the box score results. Although he’s utilized in pre snap motion a lot which is good! But it does make him a bittt gadgety. He’s essentially the Chiefs new Mecole Hardman. Take that however you want… https://t.co/S3sXe0AyRM
— Ben Cummins (@BenCumminsFF) September 9, 2023
The loss of Kelce cannot be understated and even worse, it came 48 hours before kickoff. This gave the team very little adjustment time. It’s no mystery that removing Kelce from the game plan allows the defense to attack the offense much more differently than they would otherwise be able to do. Moore lined up in the slot a decent amount and was often in motion pre-snap. Hopefully, with the defense needing to pay attention to Kelce in Week 2, Moore’s advantageous role will pay more dividends.
Get Out While You Still Can…
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams — 97% Rostered
Cam Akers played just 28 snaps to Kyren Williams’ 53. Williams ran 29 routes to Akers’ four. That is a really bad look for Akers. Williams also out-touched Akers 14 to 11 when the Rams went up 24-13. It was all Williams until the Rams got a big lead. It wasn’t just the playing time, though. Akers was dreadful with the touches he received. Absolutely awful. The kind of efficiency he played with in Week 1 will only encourage the coaching staff to phase him more out of the offense than they already did in Week 1.
#Rams Week 1 backfield ...
Snaps:
Kyren Williams - 65%
Cam Akers - 35%Routes:
Williams - 74%
Akers - 10%Carries inside the 10:
Williams - 3
Akers - 2— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 11, 2023
If you’re able to sell his high touch total (22) and a touchdown, I would highly encourage you to try and do that. With the injury to Dobbins and Swift’s disappearance, that might mean there are two fantasy managers who are desperate for running back production. I’d offer Akers and see what you can get in return.
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