RADIO
Jamie Steed's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 7 of the fantasy season.
Welcome back to the Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers should consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer peek. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, worth monitoring for replacing and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.
Following the huge number of Reddit replies on this piece each week (thank you to everyone who does), I'll be including a section called 'Reddit Requests' featuring the most commonly mentioned players on the thread every Sunday. So if there's anyone you specifically want to know whether to drop or hold who isn't included in the article, comment there and they might be featured the following week. This isn't a "hard and fast" list of definite players to drop but hopefully it will act as a tool to help you with your roster decisions.
I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two in the middle of the season is easily hidden across a whole season. We've reached the 20% mark for the season already (where's the time gone!?) so those small sample sizes are starting to be a little more meaningful. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.
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Worth Dropping and Replacing
Daniel Bard - RP, Colorado Rockies - 33% rostered
There are three components that harm a closer's value in fantasy baseball: playing on a bad team, poor performance and pitching in a hitter's ballpark. Unfortunately for Bard, he has all three. In his 11 outings (10.0 IP), he has an 8.10 ERA and 2.30 WHIP. He has tallied three saves, but has also blown two others. Bard has only had two outings without allowing a hit or a walk and hasn't achieved that in any of his last seven appearances, the last time being a two-out save on April 8. On Saturday, Mychal Givens came in to pitch the eighth while the team was down by one run and he lowered his ERA to 2.84 (13 appearances and 12.0 IP) with a scoreless outing. He walked three batters and struck out one so it wasn't a pretty outing, but could signal a changing of the higher leverage usage.
Verdict - There's been no formal word on Bard losing the closer job, but even if he does keep it or if he shares the role, the results have been so bad they counter the saves he does offer. He's a drop in all leagues except the deepest ones (15+ teams and NL-only) for people desperate for saves
Gary Sanchez - C, New York Yankees - 67% rostered
Last week, Yankees manager Aaron Boone announced that Kyle Higashioka has earned more playing time. He's kept his word with Higashioka starting in six of the 10 games since the announcement. Neither catcher has performed particularly well during that span, with Sanchez hitting .182/.471/.455 and Higashioka hitting .100/.217/.300. The walks and homer Sanchez hit (his third of the season) does help his cause a little more but Higashioka's defense continues to give him the edge and his home run off of Max Scherzer on Saturday was the only offense the team managed to produce against the Nationals ace. Higashioka ranks fifth among all catchers in framing (+2.0 according to Fangraphs) and is tied for fifth in defensive WAR (+0.5 according to ESPN). Sanchez ranks 57th in framing (-0.9) and 67th in DWAR (-0.1). Unless Sanchez reverts back to his pre-2020 version or Higashioka gets hurt, El Gary will ride the pine for more games than he plays in.
Verdict - Droppable in any one catcher league. Still can provide some help in deeper two catcher leagues but will likely be a batting average drain which isn't too big of a negative if he's playing just two or three games a week.
Alex Colome - RP, Minnesota Twins - 47% rostered
When the Twins signed Colome this offseason, the expectation was he'd be their closer. That never truly materialized and with a 5.68 ERA from 12 appearances, it doesn't look likely that he'll be closing many games going forward. He started the year well enough, getting two saves from his first three outings, albeit he blew the save in his first outing after allowing three unearned runs. Following three bad outings in late April, in which Colome allowed four earned runs in 2.1 IP and blew two more saves, manager Rocco Baldelli stated that Colome will move into a lower-leverage role for now. Colome has been better since then with four scoreless innings from three appearances, but it'll be some time until he's entrusted for saves on a regular basis.
Verdict - Droppable in 12+ team leagues. Worth holding in deep leagues if he does get the closer role back and as long as he keeps up the scoreless innings streak he's on.
Miguel Sano - 1B, Minnesota Twins - 44% rostered
Between injury and poor performance, Sano has had a disastrous 2021 season so far. Hitting just .129/.299/.226 on the year, Sano has just seven hits in 72 plate appearances and while he is walking plenty (20.8% BB%), his strikeout rate (36.1%) is still far too high for anyone to be confident in his ability to put the ball in play. Unlike many hitters at this stage of the season who have been unlucky and have much better expected stats, Sano is not in that category. His xBA is .153 (1st percentile), his xSLG is .267 (2nd percentile) and his xwOBA is .283 (16th percentile). Recent injuries to Byron Buxton (hip), Alex Kirilloff (wrist) and Luis Arraez (concussion) have meant Sano has a route to more regular playing time for now but Willians Astudillo (.313/.308.484) is pressing for more at-bats. Sano isn't doing much to stop that happening and finished Saturday's game going 1-for-5 with three strikeouts.
Verdict - Droppable in 12+ team leagues. In deeper leagues, there are still potentially better corner-fielder options available on waivers. Only rosterable in deeper leagues for teams needing power
Hold For Now
Cavan Biggio - 2B/3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays - 85% rostered
Last week, Biggio was on the hot seat. He's regressed to a 'hold for now' and could find himself as a drop in shallower leagues next week. He has shown signs of life at the plate this week as he's put together a .333/.368/.333 slash line in five games prior to Saturday. The Blue Jays have moved him up and down the batting order as he started the week leading off before being bounced around in the six, seven and eight spot in the lineup. None of his six hits this week went for extra bases and he still has just two homers on the season. Getting on base more this week didn't lead to Biggio getting his first steal on the season as his attempt ended up with him getting caught on Friday night. He also only scored once and drove in just one run taking his season totals to nine runs and five RBI. His batting average did get above .200 on the season following Thursday's 3-for-5 performance and now sits at .209. There's enough to build on and another solid week could see his fortunes turnaround for the remainder of the season. If you have held on to Biggio this long, you likely won't want to drop him after this week.
* UPDATE - Biggio homered in his first at-bat on Saturday, his first since April 8. He went 1-for-2 in the game with two walks and two runs scored
Jake McGee - RP, San Francisco Giants - 82% rostered
Following Tuesday's game in which McGee gave up four earned runs on four hits while recording just two outs, manager Gabe Kapler announced Tyler Rogers will get more ninth-inning work. That outing saw McGee's ERA rise to 5.54 and was the fourth time in his previous six appearances he had allowed an earned run, it was no surprise Kapler would want his setup man (who has a 0.96 ERA) to see more save opportunities. As if to troll all fantasy managers, on Friday, Rogers got the eighth inning and retired all three batters he faced before McGee got the ninth inning, striking out three and walking one to record his eighth save of the season. On Saturday, Rogers entered the game in the eighth again to protect a four-run lead, which he did without allowing a run. The Giants added two more runs in the bottom of the eighth so it's unclear if McGee was going to pitch the ninth. You're not dropping McGee right now but if he has another couple of bad outings this week and we do indeed see Rogers get the closer role, McGee is a drop candidate in shallower leagues.
On the Hot Seat
German Marquez - SP, Colorado Rockies - 59% rostered
It may seem like a knee-jerk reaction including Marquez here, after his disastrous outing on Tuesday. Against the Giants, Marquez couldn't get through one inning, allowing eight earned runs on two walks and six hits while recording just two outs. Of course, you could argue that was the effect Coors Field has on pitchers and while that may be true, Marquez has made two starts on the road and has a 6.52 ERA over those two starts. His home ERA is 6.08 (five starts) and his season ERA is an unsightly 6.21. If you're looking for any positives, Marquez does have a 4.10 xFIP and a 4.68 SIERA, but as a pitcher who had a 179 ADP (on NFBC) and was drafted as an SP4, even that isn't great.
The big issue for Marquez has been the walks. His career walk rate prior to 2021 was 6.4% but it's at 13.7% for this year. He's not been unlucky with homers as his 13.6% HR/FB is lower than his career 16.0% mark. He does have a .337 BABIP but he's never had a sub-.300 BABIP in any year of his career so nothing is suggesting he'll repeat his 2018 (3.77) or 2020 (3.75) ERA. He's already been dropped in a lot of leagues and currently, he's only really a matchup-dependent streaming option in shallow leagues. He's scheduled to start today at the Cardinals and if he gets rocked again, even deeper league managers might need to start looking elsewhere for pitching.
The Reddit Requests
Here are the most asked-about players from last week's Reddit thread as to whether they're droppable.
Gavin Lux - 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers - 42% rostered
Lux entered this year with a lot of prospect hype around him. After debuting in 2019 (23 games), he struggled in 2020 (19 games) so the hope was he'd acclimated himself enough to be a productive hitter in such a potent lineup. Through 24 games, he's hitting just .220/.250/.280 with one steal and has yet to homer. On Saturday night, the Dodgers score 14 runs on 19 hits but Lux only managed to go 1-for-4 with a walk. He has yet to show any signs he can hit left-handed pitching with a career .088 batting average against them and is .083 versus LHP this year. In all likelihood, a healthy Dodgers team would leave Lux as a bench bat or in the Minors but with Cody Bellinger (leg), Zach McKinstry (oblique) and Edwin Rios (shoulder) on the IL, he should continue to see regular at-bats. He's hitting .318 in May so he has shown signs of life, but is still only looking at a likely 10 homer and 10 stolen base season entrenched at the bottom of the lineup. Second base is pretty weak in fantasy, but in shallow leagues, there are better middle infield options available.
Yasmani Grandal - C, Chicago White Sox - 84% rostered
Grandal is a regular feature in the Reddit comments section and I have until now called for patience with him. I'm not going to change that stance...yet. If we look at his Statcast profile below, we see someone who has the best walk rate in the league (27.2%) and hits the ball hard. The most telling and predictive numbers for Grandal moving forward are his xwOBA (.384) and xBA (.210). Given his current slash line is .121/.388/.259, a .210 batting average would be a huge boost to his fantasy managers and considering he's a career .238 hitter, it wouldn't be too bad. If ever a performance summed up Grandal's season, it was on Saturday when he went 0-for-1 with four walks. His xwOBA (which values extra-base hits more) is 11th among catchers with 50+ plate appearances. To highlight how weak the catching position is in fantasy, his 11 runs scored is 12th most at the position and his nine RBI ranks 20th. The one issue I've flagged over Grandal is his incredibly high groundball rate which currently sits at 55.8%. Given the dearth of talent at catcher, I'd still hold on to Grandal in all formats as if he does start lifting the ball more, he could be back to being a top-5 fantasy catcher. In OBP leagues, he's arguably a top-5 catcher already.
Brandon Lowe - 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Ray - 89% rostered
It's always nice to see someone on this list hit a home run just as you're about to write about him. That's exactly what Lowe did on Saturday against the Athletics, hit his sixth homer of the year. That's also his second homer in three games and his third in nine games. Entering Saturday's game, Lowe was hitting .186/.287/.354 on the season but has shown improvement during that nine-game stretch going .250/.294/.469 and then going 2-for-5 on Saturday. The Rays certainly haven't lost faith in him as he's not hit lower than fifth in the lineup since April 20. As mentioned with Lux, second base isn't particularly deep. Lowe ranks fifth in homers and is tied for fifth in RBI (16) among his peers. His dual-positional eligibility is also a nice bonus for fantasy managers and he's someone who should be rostered in all leagues still.
Jeff McNeil - 2B/3B/OF, New York Mets - 84% rostered
Although I didn't condone it, I'll admit to justifying dropping McNeil in shallow leagues prior to this week. And the reasoning was largely due to him hitting low down the Mets order. A big part of McNeil's fantasy value is his high batting average (career .311 average) which sees him hit first or second for the Mets. That leads to more counting stats and provides a route to fantasy value. Last Sunday was only the second time McNeil hit in the leadoff spot all year but he has now done so in six of the last seven games. That move has woken up his bat too as he's hit .320 over the last seven days and raised his season's line to .226/.330/.333. Hopes of a repeat of his 2019 season when he hit 23 homers are unlikely as he only has two so far this year. McNeil could still wind up with a .300 average, 15 homers and 75 runs which offers fantasy value at the second base position in all leagues.
* UPDATE - it looks like we have set a new trend as McNeil also homered on Saturday, a two-run shot off of Merrill Kelly in a 1-for-4 performance (two runs scored and two RBI)
Jesus Luzardo - SP/RP, Oakland Athletics - 72% rostered
In six starts, Luzardo has struggled to a 5.79 ERA and this week, found himself on the IL after "bumping his hand" while playing video games. He was diagnosed with a broken pinkie finger but has already started to play catch and is expected to be back at the end of May. If you have a free IL spot, place him on there and forget about it. If you have a better option on your IL, then you have to decide whether or not to drop him. His xFIP is 4.51 and SIERA is 4.28 so both offer signs of improvement but nothing to get overly excited about. His 23.6% K% is middling while his 9.4% BB% is below average. He's droppable in 12+ team leagues or smaller if you have a better option already in your IL slot(s). In deeper leagues, he's still droppable if you really need the roster spot. At present, Luzardo is a matchup-dependent streaming option in all but very deep leagues.
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