The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who to Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 20)

August 12, 2025

The Cut List for Week 20 of 2025. Jamie analyzes potential fantasy baseball busts, overvalued players, and injured players who you may want to consider dropping.

Welcome back to The Cut List as we head into Week 20 of the 2025 season. For every add, there is usually also a drop. For those unfamiliar, this is our weekly article examining players whom fantasy managers might consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who warrant a closer look.

We'll examine players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for potential replacements, and individuals on the hot seat who are worth holding onto ... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms, or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo). Maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Devin Williams - RP, New York Yankees - 91% rostered

The Yankees' trade deadline moves were meant to shore up a bullpen that had been leaking runs recently. That hasn't been the case. Jake Bird has already been demoted. David Bednar and Camilo Doval combined to blow a lead on their Yankees debuts.

But it's been Williams who has really struggled. So much so, he has lost the closer role in the Bronx for the second time this year.

After the Yankees acquired three new relievers last week, Boone said Devin Williams would remain as closer. Today Boone said Williams "possibly" could continue to close but "I look at it like we have a bunch of closers down there, so I'm going to kind of play it night by night."

— Erik Boland (@eboland11) August 5, 2025

Aaron Boone's comments came after Williams made it four straight outings allowing a run. Tuesday's performance saw Williams give up the only runs of the game in the eighth inning. That was the final straw after back-to-back blown saves in his previous two appearances.

Boone's comments did leave the door open for Williams to still close games. On Friday, Williams closed the door on himself. Entering a tied contest in the tenth inning, Williams gave up a leadoff single that gave the Astros a lead. Williams looked on course to keep the game close, retiring the next two batters.

Taylor Trammell then made it a three-run lead with a home run, resulting in Williams taking his fifth loss of the season. Add that to his three blown saves and 5.73 ERA, and it's difficult to see a situation in which Williams gets another save opportunity in pinstripes.

Luke Weaver struggled for a period earlier this year but has a 1.84 ERA over his last 13 appearances (14 2/3 innings). Bednar had allowed just one earned run in his previous 23 1/3 innings before the trade. He also sealed the Yankees' win on Wednesday with a gutsy five-out save.

And Doval had 15 saves for the Giants before going to New York. All three of them look like better options than Williams right now, and all of them would need to have significant struggles in the coming weeks for Williams to get back into the closer mix.

Williams (and Weaver) will be free agents at the end of the year. At this stage, it's unlikely that the Yankees will look to re-sign Williams. At the very least, it would be beneficial to get Bednar or Doval acclimatized to closing games in pinstripes, which is something Williams seemed unable to do effectively.

Yesterday gave us the clearest indication of the bullpen hierarchy so far. Bednar was called upon to record another five-out save after Doval struggled in the eighth inning. Bednar entered with the bases loaded, walked in the tying run before getting the final two outs of the eighth inning.

Trent Grisham's homer in the bottom of the eighth gave the Yankees the lead, and Bednar pitched a clean ninth inning to pick up the win. Weaver had previously pitched a 1-2-3 seventh inning. Bednar looks the clear frontrunner for saves, with Doval and Weaver setting up for him.

Verdict: If the Yankees didn't have Doval and Bednar, Williams would have a stronger chance of getting back into the closer mix. Given his struggles and the options available to them, Williams doesn't look set to provide any fantasy value over the remainder of 2025.

Spencer Schwellenbach - SP, Atlanta Braves - 68% rostered

Schwellenbach landed on the IL (injured list) at the end of June with a fractured elbow. It was a huge blow to his fantasy managers. Schwellenbach was one of the best starting pitchers in the first three months of the season. He had a 7-4 W-L record, 3.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 108 Ks in 17 starts (110 2/3 innings).

Initially, Schwellenbach was expected to return this year. That now looks like a long shot. Braves manager Brian Snitker announced earlier this week that Schwellenbach has yet to resume throwing, meaning we're still weeks away from seeing him pitch in games. And time is running out.

Schwellenbach isn’t throwing yet, so I’d guess he’s not pitching again this season, though #Braves haven’t said.

Reynaldo López is at the playing catch stage. No timetable.

— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) August 4, 2025

The Braves are out of the playoff hunt, so any urgency to bring back their injured players has gone. If Schwellenbach began throwing next week, at the very best, you might get two or three starts from him. Even then, Schwellenbach would be on a strict pitch count.

At the very least, Schwellenbach has backed up last year's impressive debut season. If he can get back to 100% in the coming months, there's a very good chance he'll be sought after in 2026 drafts. Schwellenbach is also someone to consider holding in keeper leagues and a must hold in dynasty.

Verdict: Unless you have plenty of space on your IL, there's no point keeping Schwellenbach in redraft leagues. Even if you have deep benches, there are likely streaming options or bench bats available. Stashing someone else who is likely to return this year is a better use of the spot.

Hold For Now

Sonny Gray - SP, St. Louis Cardinals - 94% rostered

Until recently, it looked like Gray would be having another excellent under-the-radar season. He ended June with a 3.36 ERA (16 starts) following a complete game shutout, in which he allowed just one hit against the Guardians. Things turned south soon after.

In his last seven starts, Gray has a 6.49 ERA. On Monday, Gray limited the Dodgers to one run over seven innings. He looked much like his early-season self and now has a 10-5 W-L record, 4.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 141 Ks (128 1/3 innings).

While it may look like Gray is slowing down and struggling after passing the 100-inning mark on the season, there's little to suggest it was anything more than bad luck. The table below shows Gray's numbers before and after the end of June.

The majority of Gray's numbers have remained similar since July 1, consistent with their previous levels. He's actually cut down on the number of walks and induced more groundballs since July 1. If we break down Gray's starts individually, most of the damage came against the Diamondbacks on July 19.

In Arizona, Gray allowed a season high five barrels and 11 hard-hit balls. That resulted in nine runs (eight earned) being scored while Gray only managed to retire 10 batters. Even during his struggles, Gray has struck out at least five batters in every start, so he has provided some fantasy value.

And there's no reason he won't be able to provide the sort of fantasy value he did in the first three months of the season. I'd be surprised if Gray didn't lower his ERA to under 4.00 by the end of this month.

Gray does face the Cubs today and then should start against the Yankees next week. But he proved on Monday that he can keep the best offenses quiet, and things get easier after next week. Gray should be held onto in all formats for the remainder of 2025, unless he gets lit up in his remaining August starts.

Kodai Senga - SP, New York Mets - 91% rostered

On the surface, Senga has a stronger case for Cy Young Award votes than being a drop candidate. After 18 starts (94 innings), Senga has a 7-4 W-L record, 2.30 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 88 Ks. However, things haven't been great for Senga recently.

Since missing a month with a hamstring injury, Senga has struggled. If we look at his numbers before and after his IL stint, we can see that Senga hasn't been achieving the same results.

A few things stand out. One is that Senga hasn't been going deep in games. He's only completed five innings once in his last five starts. That's after doing so in 12 of his 13 starts before the injury. Senga also had six quality starts before the IL stint.

Next is the ERA. Senga's ERA was a bit of a mirage in the early goings. As we can see from his xFIP and SIERA, Senga was lucky to have such a low ERA. Since returning from injury, Senga's ERA is much more in line with what it should be. And that doesn't make for pretty reading.

Finally, Senga's strikeouts and walks are heading in the wrong direction. He struggled with walks in his rookie season (11.1% BB%), so this is nothing new for Senga. It's also contributing to his abbreviated starts and increased ERA. It's left Senga offering nothing positive for fantasy managers.

It's worth noting that Senga's highest pitch count since the injury is 92 (July 27). That was the only time he's completed five innings post-injury. Senga hasn't even reached 80 pitches in the other four starts. Inefficiencies have made a difference, but it doesn't appear as though Senga is 100% healthy.

Senga is scheduled to face the Braves and Nationals in his next two starts. Suppose he struggles in both and still isn't getting near to throwing 100 pitches in either start. In that case, I'd put serious consideration into dropping Senga, especially as he'd be lined up to face the Phillies afterwards.

On the Hot Seat

MacKenzie Gore - SP, Washington Nationals - 86% rostered

After having an impressive 2024 campaign, Gore was a popular draft pick this year. That optimism was justified as Gore looked dominant, until recently. After 19 starts, Gore had a 3.02 ERA, backed up by a 3.22 xFIP and 3.19 SIERA. Four starts later, and Gore has a 4.29 ERA.

Tuesday was the third time in four starts in which Gore gave up six or more earned runs. It was also the first time Gore failed to record a single strikeout. He had struck out at least five batters in each of his first 15 starts this year. He's failed to do so in any of his last four appearances.

Given Gore's xFIP and SIERA, this isn't just natural regression following a spell of good luck. And if we look at Gore's numbers through the season, we can see that his fastball has been getting demolished lately.

There has been a slight drop in Gore's fastball velocity recently. It averaged 95.4 mph in his first 18 starts, and only dropped below 95.0 mph in one of those outings. Over his last five starts, Gore's fastball has averaged 95.1 mph and dropped below 95.0 mph in two of those appearances.

That's not enough to be the sole cause of such a recent hammering of his four-seamer. While Gore's fastball is his bread and butter, his curveball and slider are the pitches that are his most effective offerings. As the graph shows, they, too, have been getting hit more.

It's difficult to find an exact reason why Gore has regressed so much in such a short period. Maybe he's tipping his pitches. Perhaps he's dealing with some health and/or mechanical issue. Whatever the case may be, this isn't just a run of bad luck in a small sample.

Gore has a tough schedule ahead of him, too. After the Giants today, he's lined up to face the Phillies, Mets, and Yankees. If he gets hit hard by the Giants, it's going to be tough starting Gore against any of that trio.

Given his strikeout upside and what we saw from Gore until recently, he warrants a bit more time on your rosters. That being said, I wouldn't start him against the Phillies unless he finds his best form today. If he's just someone you're going to have on your bench throughout August, is he worth holding?

The Nationals do have a better schedule in September. If Gore can find some form in the coming weeks, he could still end the season strongly. But more shellackings like we've seen recently, and it will be too late to salvage what was looking like an excellent season. And he'll be dropped en masse.

Reader Requests

As always, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone you want to include on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or in the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover some requests each week.

Matt Olson - 1B, Atlanta Braves - 99% rostered

The majority of requests to include Olson are from fantasy managers who aren't looking to drop him. But they are concerned about Olson's production. That's understandable. He has 18 homers, 69 RBI, 64 runs, and no stolen bases (117 games). Olson is hitting .260/.360/.443.

None of Olson's numbers is particularly bad, and he still ranks 13th among first basemen. But that's not what fantasy managers wanted or expected when taking Olson as the fourth first baseman in drafts, using one of their first three picks on him.

However, I'm here to tell you that it isn't entirely Olson's fault. He's performing better than he did in 2024, just without improved results. If we compare Olson's Statcast Profiles for the last two seasons, we can see how unlucky he has been.

While Olson's batting average is almost identical to his xBA (expected batting average), he should have better power numbers. But even with the Braves disappointing this year, only two first basemen have driven in more runs than Olson. And only two have scored more runs.

The major frustration has been the recent lack of power and production. Olson has homered once since July 6 and is hitting .229/.326/.297 in this slump. Olson's quality of contact has dropped, but there isn't an obvious reason why. That may just be symptomatic of the position the Braves are in.

It may be an injury. It may be fatigue, as Olson has missed just six games in the last six years and none since 2022. It may be Olson playing within himself at the end of a season that is already over for Atlanta. Whatever the reason, finding a better option on waivers is unlikely.

Felix Bautista - RP, Baltimore Orioles - 80% rostered

It's been something of a successful season for Bautista, following his return from TJS (Tommy John Surgery). He has a 1-1 W-L record, 2.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 50 Ks, and 19 saves (34 2/3 innings). Unfortunately, his season appears to be over.

We haven't had any news on the severity of Bautista's shoulder injury for over a week. But the last update was not promising. The Orioles announced that Bautista will be out for a while. With less than two months of the season to go, that sounds like Bautista is done for 2025.

#Orioles closer Félix Bautista is going to be “out a while,” interim manager Tony Mansolino said. Likely weeks, not days.

MRI showed a lot of swelling in Bautista’s right shoulder. No exact diagnosis quite yet.

— Jake Rill (@JakeDRill) July 28, 2025

The Orioles' disappointing year means they aren't in the playoff race, so they have no reason to bring Bautista back unless he's 100% healthy. Considering he missed the entire 2024 season following TJS, not pushing Bautista feels like a wise move.

Bautista is also under control for two more years, so the Orioles have nothing to gain by bringing him back this year. Even if he did make a surprise return in September, the Orioles won't be winning enough games for Bautista to tally many saves. He's a safe drop in redraft leagues.

Luis Garcia Jr. - 2B, Washington Nationals - 54% rostered

Garcia is currently ranked 19th among second basemen. He was taken as the 12th second baseman on average in drafts, so he has disappointed this year. After what was a slow start to the season, Garcia Jr. picked things up after April.

Garcia hit .264/.295/.471 in May and .292/.323/.427 in June. Since July 1, he's been hitting .256/.289/.356. As we can see from his cumulative slash line, Garcia's numbers have almost plateaued in recent weeks.

He's only hit two home runs and stolen two bases since the end of June. That's pretty common for Garcia. After hitting 18 homers and tallying 22 steals in 2024, he's failed to build on that breakout season. While he will help across the board, Garcia hasn't shown much power or speed this year.

Garcia has not hit more than four homers in a calendar month as a major leaguer. That is unlikely to change this year. He's also only stolen more than four bases in a month twice. Both occasions were in 2024 (April and September).

Garcia was scratched from Friday's lineup with back stiffness and sat out yesterday's game. Even if it doesn't lead to an extended absence, he's still someone only worth rostering in deeper leagues. If you need help with power or speed, then looking for an alternative on waivers is a better option.

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