X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 3: Buy or Sell?

What Appears In This Article? hide

We’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Last year we built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in a pitcher's strikeout rate over the last thirty days.  The tool is for Premium subscribers only, and can be found here. With our sample size being so small this early in the season though, we will look at the difference between pitchers' final 2016 K-Rate and their current K-Rate through two to three starts.

Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.  By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.

This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher.

Featured Promo: Get any MLB Premium Pass FREE ($119 value) AND up to a $200 deposit match when you sign up with Rival Fantasy. Rival offers 6 and 12-team Best Ball, weekly and daily contests, for as little as $3 per entry. No roster management, just draft and Rival sets your best lineup automatically. Playing fantasy baseball has never been easier! Sign Up Today!

 

K-Rate Risers

Luis Severino, NYY

2016 K-Rate: 21.2%, 2017 K-Rate: 35.5%

The difference between 2015 and 2016 for Luis Severino wasn’t much. He struck out the same number of hitters, walked the same number, and threw the same types of pitches. However, his BABIP rose by nearly .060 points, causing his ERA to skyrocket by nearly three runs. Hitters had figured him out, and he needed to make some changes if he wanted to stick around in the majors. After working with Pedro Martinez in the offseason, one change is immediately noticeable: his changeup usage. The change has led to his other pitches becoming more valuable, and a 12.15 K/9, 0.90 BB/9, and a 3.12/1.71 FIP/xFIP through three starts.

Severino has thrown his changeup 17% of the time this season compared to 8% last season. The increase has meant a decrease in his slider usage by 8%, however the effects it has had on both pitches is eye-opening. His changeup is currently sporting a 53.8% strikeout rate, and opposing hitters are hitting .000 against it. The slider has been nearly as good, with a 50.0% strikeout rate and a .120 batting average against. These improvements have led to a rise in swinging strike rate, which is up to 11.3%, and his contact rate has dropped 6% to 72.6%. His hard and soft contact rates are both trending in the right direction from last season, currently sitting at 23.4% each. His pitch movements and velocities haven’t changed much, so these positive strides can be attributed mainly to his changes in pitch selection.

While his .233 BABIP is bound to rise, his HR/FB rate of 26.7% should drop closer to his career average. I’m buying the changes Severino has made; he has a chance to be a top-30 pitcher this season.

Verdict: Buy

 

Jason Vargas, KC

2016 K-Rate: 23.4%, 2017 K-Rate: 31.1%

Jason Vargas underwent Tommy John surgery after nine starts in 2015, putting a severe damper on his chances to make any impact at all in 2016. He made it back for three starts last season, and did surprisingly well over 12 total innings. He held a 2.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, with an 8.25 K/9 rate. Early on this season the success has followed him; through three starts in 2017 he has a 0.44 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and a 10.02 K/9. For his career, Vargas holds a 4.11 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 6.00 K/9. What, if anything, is Vargas doing differently since his Tommy John surgery?

Well, there aren’t too many changes in his pitching profile. His pitching velocities and movements are all similar to his career, however his changeup this season has been even more immaculate this season than normal. His changeup has always been his best pitch, but this season his swinging strike rate on the pitch is through the roof. A career 18.5% SwStr% is very good, but this season that number is at 31.0%. His ground ball rate is higher than ever before at 53.1%. He has thrown his changeup and sinker a little more than usual to begin the season, so it could be just a matter of Vargas finally finding the right combination of his pitches to use in a game. He has also been attacking the zone more; his Zone% is up to 51.9%, the highest it’s been since 2007. This change has led to his walk rate dropping to a career-low 2.7%, much higher than his 6.8% career rate.

What should we believe with Vargas? Is he the next pitcher to figure things out late in his career, or is this a blip on the radar?  His BABIP is at his career norm, and his FIP/xFIP support his start so far.  His 0.0% HR/FB rate is bound to rise though, and his LOB% of 93.8% is bound to drop. Vargas should be added, as this could be one of the better years of his career. However, I would be trying to sell soon while his value is near its peak.

Verdict:  Sell

 

K-Rate Fallers

Jose Quintana, CWS

2016 K-Rate: 21.6%, 2017 K-Rate: 17.5%

Over the first five seasons of his career, Jose Quintana has been the model of consistency. He has thrown 200 innings each of the past four seasons, with a K/9 between 8.00 and 7.38 each of those seasons. His BB/9 has been nearly as consistent, and his ERA has been in the mid to low 3.00 range each season. This season, however, things have gotten off to a rocky start. In his first three starts, Quintana has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. His 7.27 K/9 is still close to his career average, but his BB/9 has ballooned to 4.67. In his first start of the season he allowed three HR, which has boosted his HR/FB rate to 16%.

Looking a little deeper, his pitch velocities and movements are nearly identical to his career rates, so nothing to see there. His BABIP of .288 is actually a little lower than his career average, so he’s not necessarily getting unlucky. What has been happening to Quintana is that opposing hitters are swinging at his outside pitches at a lower rate this season than at any year of his career, and his first strike rate is down this season to his rookie-year levels. The point being, he’s throwing balls and this season hitters aren’t taking the bait. Quintana should be able to rebound, seeing as this isn’t the first time he’s struggled out of the gate. In 2015, Quintana posted a 6.55 ERA in April, and ended the season at 3.36.

He may be down now, but Mr. Consistency will make things right if you give him some time. Quintana looks like a strong buy-low while his value is about as low as it can get.

Verdict:  Buy

 

Kyle Hendricks, CHC

2016 K-Rate: 22.8%, 2017 K-Rate: 18.8%

Fresh of finishing third in the NL Cy Young award voting, Kyle Hendricks had big expectations for himself heading into 2017. Fantasy baseball owners however, saw some regression coming after last year’s ridiculous 2.13 ERA campaign. Though we expected it, I don’t think many saw regression hitting him this hard. Through three starts, Hendricks holds a 6.19 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a measly 8.7% K:BB ratio. He is drawing a similar amount of ground balls compared to last season, but his strikeout rate and swinging strike rate are both at career-low’s right now.

The main cause of concern has to be his dip in pitch velocity. All of his pitches are down, but everything starts with his fastball being down over 2mph. For his career, he throws about 88mph, but this season he is down to 85.2mph. The loss in velocity has caused a decrease in swing strike rate to all of his pitches, and hitters are making more solid contact on him compared to last season. If he can work to get his velocity back up, he should see some major improvements in his results (not to the tune of last season’s numbers, but still improvements). April has statistically been the worst month for him in his career, so this could just be a blip in the radar for Hendricks that were noticing more now since we drafted him so highly.

Hendricks won’t have a repeat of last year’s stellar numbers, however I do believe he will have better outings moving forward. Even if he has a year more like 2015 (3.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), there is still plenty of value in that. He is a more risky than Quintana, but this is a good time to buy Hendricks low before he figures things out.

Verdict:  Buy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Senzel4 hours ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray4 hours ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele4 hours ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons6 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler6 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson6 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele6 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle6 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans6 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic6 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric6 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney7 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga7 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant7 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith7 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen7 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara7 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele7 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes7 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson7 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic7 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar7 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton7 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert7 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones7 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji8 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey8 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee8 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards8 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani8 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson8 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo8 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley8 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque8 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez9 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler9 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel9 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley9 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal10 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes10 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis11 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer12 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw12 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler12 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager12 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz12 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds14 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano16 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad17 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov17 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto17 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin17 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard17 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins18 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist18 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear18 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson1 day ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen1 day ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers1 day ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers1 day ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers2 days ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby2 days ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds2 days ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson3 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell3 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott3 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs3 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas4 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan4 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson4 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla4 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo4 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal5 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott5 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa5 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More