Starting Pitcher Busts

Jamie's starting pitcher fantasy baseball busts to avoid in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. These overvalued starting pitchers are his fantasy baseball avoids.

Every year, we see a slew of starting pitchers fail to come close to providing value on their ADP (average draft position). Being able to navigate the minefield that is starting pitching and coming out of the draft unscathed will go a long way to helping you achieve fantasy baseball success.

To help you on your way, we're going to look at a trio of starting pitchers set to be fantasy baseball busts in 2025. That isn't to say these players are bad in any way. Nor am I saying they shouldn't be drafted. But they are going earlier than they probably should in drafts.

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Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

Last year, Greene had by far his best season in the majors. In 26 starts (150 1/3 IP), he had a 9-6 W-L record, 2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 169 strikeouts. That was enough to garner a pair of top-5 votes for the NL Cy Young Award. If we dig a little, there are concerns about Greene coming close to a repeat.

The first concern is the lack of innings. Greene's 150 1/3 IP last year was a career-high. It was only Greene's third season in the majors but missing five weeks late in the year with elbow soreness wasn't ideal. It's something that needs to be monitored in case the increased workload was a factor in that.

Despite a miserly 2.75 ERA, Greene had a 4.19 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA. Both of which were career highs. Given Greene had a 4.44 ERA in 2022 and a 4.82 ERA in 2023, it's unlikely we see a repeat of last year's numbers in 2025.

If we compare Greene's three major league seasons, there is little to back up his 2.75 ERA other than some fortune.

For context, among the 71 pitchers with at least 150 IP last year, Greene's Left On Base percentage (LOB percentage) was the fourth highest. Greene's home-run-to-fly-ball ratio (HR/FB) was the second lowest. It's difficult to see how those two things can continue into 2025.

According to Baseball Savant, the Reds' Great American Ball Park is the third-best hitter park and the most home-run-friendly ballpark in the majors. Greene having such a low HR/FB was a minor miracle.

It shouldn't come as any surprise that Greene's projections all have significant ERA regression this year. ATC has Greene with a 3.92 ERA and 179 punchouts (152 IP). While the accumulation of strikeouts is good (and it's the accumulation we're after), the lack of innings still caps his potential fantasy value.

Greene is being taken just inside the top 100 overall with an ADP of ~98. He's currently the 26th pitcher being taken, according to ADP, and it's the pitchers being drafted immediately after Greene that makes it look like the Reds hurler is being taken too early.

Tanner Bibee, Logan Webb, Max Fried, Freddy Peralta, and Joe Ryan all have an ADP of 100-106. All of them are projected for more innings and a better ERA than Greene.

If you can take Greene as an SP4, there's still some value to be had. But the only way Greene can provide value on his current ADP is with more luck and better health. Neither of which is something we can rely on.

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

Let me preface this by saying I agree with the majority of people in thinking Baz will be a stellar starting pitcher for many years. However, 2025 isn't going to be one of those years. That is partly down to the fact he's pitching for the Rays.

Tampa Bay is an organization that seems to maximize what it has. That seldom helps from a fantasy standpoint. Whether it be abbreviated starts from the rotation, extra emphasis on matchups, or just capping young arms' workload, the Rays have frustrated fantasy managers for some time.

That isn't going to change with Baz. Last year, between Triple-A and the majors, Baz totaled 118 2/3 IP. That's the most he's thrown as a professional. Given he missed the entirety of 2023 following Tommy John surgery, the Rays aren't going to be burdening Baz with a heavy workload this year.

ATC projects Baz for 140 IP, and realistically, that's the most we can hope for. While Baz impressed in his 14 MLB starts last year, ATC also has Baz seeing some regression. Baz had a 4-3 W-L record, 3.06 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts (79 1/3 IP) with the Rays in 2024.

ATC projects Baz for an 8-7 W-L record,  3.98 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 134 strikeouts. If you think that seems a bit harsh, ATC is the only projection system with Baz having a sub-4.00 ERA.

The Rays will play their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field in 2025. The ballpark has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, so it is a big downgrade for the Rays pitching staff. Another reason why this year may be a struggle for Baz.

Steinbrenner Field is going to play very well for Rays’ LHB.
LF: 318
L-CF: 399
CF: 408
R-CF: 385
RF: 314@MattEddyBA park factors had it as a 128 HR factor for LHB vs 86 for RHB.
In 2024 it had the most oppo HR for righties and most pulled HR for lefties in the FSL pic.twitter.com/FlpoVM23xp

— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) November 14, 2024

If opponents stack their lineups with left-handed hitters (LHH), Baz could struggle. While his numbers against LHH in 2024 look good (and better than against RHH), there is caution to be had. It's only a small sample, and the underlying numbers don't support a repeat.

Baz had a .261 wOBA against LHH and .272 wOBA against RHH. However, he had a 4.85 xFIP against lefties and 3.87 xFIP against righties. Baz also had a 42.9 percent fly-ball rate in 2024, which would have ranked 11th highest among qualified starters last year.

Baz's 21.6 percent strikeout rate last year is also cause for concern. Again, we're looking at a small sample. Baz had a career 28 percent strikeout rate in the minors (288 1/3 IP). In the two seasons before having Tommy John surgery, Baz had a 37.9 percent strikeout rate in 170 1/3 IP in the minor leagues. No surprise that the surgery had an impact on Baz's strikeout rate.

Baz should be able to improve his strikeout numbers the further removed from Tommy John he is. With an ADP of ~178, Baz won't cost much in drafts. While his talent carries an upside, his situation doesn't. That's why Baz is set to be a disappointment for fantasy managers in 2025.

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

This pick has nothing to do with Snell's pitching ability. The 2023 NL Cy Young Award winner has shown repeated excellence when he's on the mound. The problem has been staying on the mound.

In 2023, Snell totaled 180 IP. His 180 2/3 IP in 2018 remains a career-high, and they are the only two seasons in which Snell has topped 130 IP. If we ignore the shortened 2020 season, since his career-high workload in 2018, Snell has averaged 129 2/3 IP a year.

Snell's ADP (~52) makes him the 13th starting pitcher being taken in drafts (according to NFBC). He's going to need to stay healthy to provide value. That's not to say Snell won't. Even ~150 IP could offer enough fantasy value, considering how effective he's been.

It's likely no coincidence that Snell's best ERAs over a season both came when he reached 180 IP. In 2018, Snell had a 1.89 ERA, and in 2023, he had a 2.25 ERA. Last year's 3.12 ERA was the lowest Snell has had in any of his other seasons in the majors.

It may not just be health that determines Snell's workload in 2025. While the Dodgers appear set to start the year with a five-man rotation, that is likely to change once Shohei Ohtani returns to the mound. Ohtani is expected to be pitching in games sometime in May.

Per Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers will go with a five-man rotation until Shohei Ohtani is ready to start games. That means they won't be down a bullpen arm to begin the season. It also opens some competition for the fifth spot in the rotation.

— Sonja Chen (@SonjaMChen) February 14, 2025

If the Dodgers move to a six-man rotation after 42 games, that would mean four fewer starts for each pitcher over the remainder of the season. Things do change, and that's not something set in stone. Even if Snell remains healthy for the entire 2025 season, 28 starts are the maximum we can expect.

Snell hasn't been the most efficient when it comes to innings per start. Since 2021, Snell has averaged 5 1/3 IP per start. If that remains the same in 2025, then 28 starts will total 149 1/3 IP. A healthy Snell will still need to be more efficient to provide fantasy value at his ADP.

The reduced workload will impact Snell's number of wins and strikeouts. It will also reduce how impactful his ERA and WHIP will be on your team's overall numbers. Wins are fluky, although pitching for the Dodgers will help with them. And Snell's elite strikeout rate will allow him to still tally plenty of strikeouts.

But 60 pitchers totaled more strikeouts than Snell (145) last year. He'll likely need to reach at least 140 IP to get into the top 20 overall for total strikeouts. The good news is that the projections favor that.

ATC has Snell with 158 IP and 204 strikeouts. If he manages that, Snell will be a value pick at his current ADP. The biggest issue will be reaching 150 IP considering he's done so only twice in his career. Snell carries a lot of risks to be taken as a borderline SP1 in drafts.

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