X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Starting Pitcher Busts Who’ll Keep Junking It Up in 2019

It’s a stocked junkyard full of veteran left-handers in this edition of starting pitcher busts. Highlighted in articles depicting their incredible value and abilities over the last few years, the players on this list have suffered a free fall from the upper ranks of talent since then. After seeing a rapid transformation in quality from these pitchers, it’s advisable to be out a year early rather than a year late on these hurlers before things get worse.

With Father Time looming over these players’ careers, they will have to adapt to their diminishing skillset, and adjust to the way hitters attack them if they want to regain their past success. Drops in velocity, erratic control, and tossing virtual melons are just a few of the factors that hurt these former aces in 2018.

With their prime years in the rearview mirror, it’s time to take a look down the long road of displeasure.

Featured Promo: Get any MLB Premium Pass FREE ($119 value) AND up to a $200 deposit match when you sign up with Rival Fantasy. Rival offers 6 and 12-team Best Ball, weekly and daily contests, for as little as $3 per entry. No roster management, just draft and Rival sets your best lineup automatically. Playing fantasy baseball has never been easier! Sign Up Today!

 

Madison Bumgarner (SF) - 80 ADP

Madison Bumgarner’s fantasy stock has crashed harder than his dirt bike in April of 2017. Tossing 129.2 innings last year, he went 6-7 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 109 strikeouts with the San Francisco Giants. While his ERA and WHIP aren’t off-putting, his deteriorating strikeout rate is distressing.

Bumgarner had a 19.8 K% in 2018, the first time it dipped below 20% since his rookie season in 2010. His K% has drastically dropped in consecutive years, as it sat at a healthy 27.5% in 2016 before his bike accident. His fastball eroded down to 88.1 MPH, and he fell well below the league average in SwStr% (9.2). Bumgarner is a smart, crafty pitcher so he can still find ways to get outs, but his dependability in the strikeout column has faded away.

Although MadBum had a satisfying ERA last year, it wasn’t all rosy beneath the surface. He had a 4.42 SIERA, 3.99 FIP, and a 4.32 xFIP, meaning he actually should have had an ERA almost a full run higher. The Giants ballpark helped him in that regard.

Bumgarner will turn in 30 in August, but he hasn't been close to the same pitcher since the dirt bike accident. It’ll be difficult for him to recover his strikeout rate with his diminishing fastball velocity, and wins will also be elusive on a sub-par Giants team. His WHIP and ERA can still keep at a respectable pace, but paying for him as an SP2 is a mistake given the high upside strikeout arms that are in his ADP neighborhood.

 

Dallas Keuchel (FA) - 184 ADP

It may be no coincidence that Dallas Keuchel hasn’t found a home yet in 2019. Despite proving to be a durable arm with 204.2 IP a year ago, Keuchel went 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, while accumulating just 153 strikeouts. Statistically speaking, it wasn't an ideal contract year for the recently turned 31-year-old.

Keuchel’s K% dropped to 17.5% after it sat over 20% during the last three seasons. He’s proven to be successful with below-average fastball velocity across his career, but his complimentary pitches didn’t live up to their success from previous campaigns. His 34.4% whiff rate on his breaking balls was the lowest since he got called up to the bigs in 2012. Batters also hit .260 on these pitches, after averaging only .159 on these offerings since 2014.

Keuchel’s elusiveness with his pitches has also vanished after he produced his career-worst numbers in chase rate (28.8%) and chase contact (66.4%). Across his big-league tenure, these figures sat at an average of 30.6% and 60.7% respectively. Evaporating with his craftiness was his always dominant GB%, as it also fell more than five ticks below his career rate in 2018 to just 54.9%.

With no contract appearing to be close in sight, it seems inevitable that Keuchel will have a late start to his season. Unless Houston brings back the lefty, he’ll have to build a relationship with his new backstop as well as his new coaching staff, which is easier said than done. Keuchel will be a leg behind his opponents when he does find a team, and with his deteriorating skills and strikeout rate, this will be even more disadvantageous for him.

 

Jose Quintana (CHC) - 191 ADP

Jose Quintana has asserted himself as an inning-eater arm over his career. Making 32 starts for the sixth consecutive year, he had the potential to eclipse 200 frames once again, but his ineffectiveness limited his innings to just 174.1. He racked up 158 strikeouts with a 4.03 ERA, and a 1.32 WHIP in his first full year on the North side of Chicago.

Quintana’s BB% has increased every season over the last four years topping out at an uninspiring 9.2% a year ago, over 1.5% higher than his 2017 mark. Not only was he handing out the free passes at an alarming rate, but he was serving up the long ball on a silver platter. Giving up 1.29 HR/9 last year, hitters punished all of his pitches despite keeping his ground ball rate (44.7%) right on his career pace (44.8%).

Quintana has only thrown a K-per-inning one time over his seven big league seasons, and his 21.4% K-rate from 2018 was just slightly above his 21.0% career-rate. He’s likely to remain in this region for strikeout ability, and if his innings stay limited  in 2019, he’s unlikely to make a drastic impact in this category for your fantasy squad.

As a top-20 starting pitcher selection before the start of 2018, things could have been a lot worse for Quintana last year. His 4.43 FIP and 4.39 SIERA suggest that he was fortunate to come away with the ERA that he did last year. Quintana has a superb track record health-wise, but we can't overvalue his quantity over quality.

 

Jon Lester (CHC) - 192 ADP

Like his teammate mentioned above, Jon Lester has maintained a strong ability to take the hill every five days. Making 32 starts in 2018, he has now made at least 31 starts every year since 2007. He posted a much better roto line than his teammate generating an 18-6 record with a 3.32 ERA, 1.31 WHIP while tossing 149 K over 181.2 IP. A couple of these numbers are solid, but this may be the final time we see rates this proficient.

Although Lester’s 3.32 ERA was satisfying, his underlying metrics were unappealing as he posted an ugly 4.39 FIP and a 4.57 SIERA in 2018. He saw his line drive rate reach a new high at 30.3% while his ground ball rate fell well beneath his 45.8% career rate down to 40.0% in 2018.

The punch-outs are also dissipating from the recently turned 35-year-old’s game. Lester's whiff rate tumbled down nearly 5% from 2017, down to 20.5% in 2018, and his four-seamer once again decreased in velocity down to an average of 91.0 MPH. He was also unable to get hitters to chase pitches as often, resulting in a seven-year low in walk rate with an 8.4% BB% in 2018.

Lester somehow managed an 80.3% strand rate which is sure to regress in 2019, especially if he upholds his 1.24 HR/9 from his last two seasons combined. Age is starting to set in with the 6’4” pitcher, and there’s a lot of miles on that left arm which is bound to catch up with him even more than it already has. The glory days are over with Lester, and it would be wise to toss this hot potato as far as you can before it’s too late.

More Fantasy Baseball Busts and Avoids




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Onyeka Okongwu21 mins ago

Remains Out Thursday
Dejounte Murray30 mins ago

Questionable With Back Soreness
Jordan Romano1 hour ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Gerrit Cole1 hour ago

Yankees Put Gerrit Cole On 60-Day Injured List
Elly De La Cruz1 hour ago

Batting In Six-Hole On Opening Day
Anthony Rendon2 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff On Opening Day
Wander Franco2 hours ago

Placed On Administrative Leave
Aaron Ekblad2 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov2 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto3 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin3 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard3 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins3 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist3 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear3 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Keita Bates-Diop3 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season
Dyson Daniels3 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday But Nearing Return
LaMelo Ball4 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of 2023-24
Jose Alvarado4 hours ago

Questionable To Face Milwaukee
Jaden Springer4 hours ago

Considered Questionable
Xavier Tillman4 hours ago

Sr. Questionable Thursday
Gabe Vincent4 hours ago

Expected To Return To Action On Sunday
Al Horford15 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White15 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl16 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon16 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter16 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic16 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio16 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday16 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton17 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Joel Embiid17 hours ago

To Return Soon?
Jamal Murray17 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Rudy Gobert18 hours ago

Ready To Rock Against Pistons
LeBron James18 hours ago

Officially Active Against Memphis
Eduardo Rodriguez18 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Anthony Davis18 hours ago

Won't Play Against Grizzlies
Garrett Mitchell18 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Chad Green18 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Erik Swanson18 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman18 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Gleyber Torres20 hours ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard20 hours ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson20 hours ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer20 hours ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia20 hours ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen20 hours ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers20 hours ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers21 hours ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers21 hours ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Jordan Lawlar22 hours ago

To Have Thumb Surgery, Out A Couple Months
Wyndham Clark22 hours ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers23 hours ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
MLB23 hours ago

Braves And Phillies Rained Out On Thursday
Jayden Daniels23 hours ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
MLB23 hours ago

Mets And Brewers To Be Postponed Thursday
Tank Bigsby23 hours ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Will Smith23 hours ago

Inks 10-Year Extension With Dodgers
Josh Reynolds23 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Jon Berti1 day ago

Yankees Acquire Jon Berti From Marlins
Kodai Senga1 day ago

Throws Wednesday
Matt McLain1 day ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Doug Ghim1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA1 day ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry1 day ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan1 day ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg1 day ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn1 day ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby1 day ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord1 day ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala1 day ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler1 day ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder1 day ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley3 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr3 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR3 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
Rose Namajunas6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Amanda Ribas6 days ago

Set For Main-Event Matchup
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More