X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Starting Pitcher Busts Who’ll Keep Junking It Up in 2019

Riley Mrack identifies some starting pitchers who declined last year that could continue to be busts in 2019. These SP are players to avoid in your fantasy baseball drafts.

It’s a stocked junkyard full of veteran left-handers in this edition of starting pitcher busts. Highlighted in articles depicting their incredible value and abilities over the last few years, the players on this list have suffered a free fall from the upper ranks of talent since then. After seeing a rapid transformation in quality from these pitchers, it’s advisable to be out a year early rather than a year late on these hurlers before things get worse.

With Father Time looming over these players’ careers, they will have to adapt to their diminishing skillset, and adjust to the way hitters attack them if they want to regain their past success. Drops in velocity, erratic control, and tossing virtual melons are just a few of the factors that hurt these former aces in 2018.

With their prime years in the rearview mirror, it’s time to take a look down the long road of displeasure.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Madison Bumgarner (SF) - 80 ADP

Madison Bumgarner’s fantasy stock has crashed harder than his dirt bike in April of 2017. Tossing 129.2 innings last year, he went 6-7 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 109 strikeouts with the San Francisco Giants. While his ERA and WHIP aren’t off-putting, his deteriorating strikeout rate is distressing.

Bumgarner had a 19.8 K% in 2018, the first time it dipped below 20% since his rookie season in 2010. His K% has drastically dropped in consecutive years, as it sat at a healthy 27.5% in 2016 before his bike accident. His fastball eroded down to 88.1 MPH, and he fell well below the league average in SwStr% (9.2). Bumgarner is a smart, crafty pitcher so he can still find ways to get outs, but his dependability in the strikeout column has faded away.

Although MadBum had a satisfying ERA last year, it wasn’t all rosy beneath the surface. He had a 4.42 SIERA, 3.99 FIP, and a 4.32 xFIP, meaning he actually should have had an ERA almost a full run higher. The Giants ballpark helped him in that regard.

Bumgarner will turn in 30 in August, but he hasn't been close to the same pitcher since the dirt bike accident. It’ll be difficult for him to recover his strikeout rate with his diminishing fastball velocity, and wins will also be elusive on a sub-par Giants team. His WHIP and ERA can still keep at a respectable pace, but paying for him as an SP2 is a mistake given the high upside strikeout arms that are in his ADP neighborhood.

 

Dallas Keuchel (FA) - 184 ADP

It may be no coincidence that Dallas Keuchel hasn’t found a home yet in 2019. Despite proving to be a durable arm with 204.2 IP a year ago, Keuchel went 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, while accumulating just 153 strikeouts. Statistically speaking, it wasn't an ideal contract year for the recently turned 31-year-old.

Keuchel’s K% dropped to 17.5% after it sat over 20% during the last three seasons. He’s proven to be successful with below-average fastball velocity across his career, but his complimentary pitches didn’t live up to their success from previous campaigns. His 34.4% whiff rate on his breaking balls was the lowest since he got called up to the bigs in 2012. Batters also hit .260 on these pitches, after averaging only .159 on these offerings since 2014.

Keuchel’s elusiveness with his pitches has also vanished after he produced his career-worst numbers in chase rate (28.8%) and chase contact (66.4%). Across his big-league tenure, these figures sat at an average of 30.6% and 60.7% respectively. Evaporating with his craftiness was his always dominant GB%, as it also fell more than five ticks below his career rate in 2018 to just 54.9%.

With no contract appearing to be close in sight, it seems inevitable that Keuchel will have a late start to his season. Unless Houston brings back the lefty, he’ll have to build a relationship with his new backstop as well as his new coaching staff, which is easier said than done. Keuchel will be a leg behind his opponents when he does find a team, and with his deteriorating skills and strikeout rate, this will be even more disadvantageous for him.

 

Jose Quintana (CHC) - 191 ADP

Jose Quintana has asserted himself as an inning-eater arm over his career. Making 32 starts for the sixth consecutive year, he had the potential to eclipse 200 frames once again, but his ineffectiveness limited his innings to just 174.1. He racked up 158 strikeouts with a 4.03 ERA, and a 1.32 WHIP in his first full year on the North side of Chicago.

Quintana’s BB% has increased every season over the last four years topping out at an uninspiring 9.2% a year ago, over 1.5% higher than his 2017 mark. Not only was he handing out the free passes at an alarming rate, but he was serving up the long ball on a silver platter. Giving up 1.29 HR/9 last year, hitters punished all of his pitches despite keeping his ground ball rate (44.7%) right on his career pace (44.8%).

Quintana has only thrown a K-per-inning one time over his seven big league seasons, and his 21.4% K-rate from 2018 was just slightly above his 21.0% career-rate. He’s likely to remain in this region for strikeout ability, and if his innings stay limited  in 2019, he’s unlikely to make a drastic impact in this category for your fantasy squad.

As a top-20 starting pitcher selection before the start of 2018, things could have been a lot worse for Quintana last year. His 4.43 FIP and 4.39 SIERA suggest that he was fortunate to come away with the ERA that he did last year. Quintana has a superb track record health-wise, but we can't overvalue his quantity over quality.

 

Jon Lester (CHC) - 192 ADP

Like his teammate mentioned above, Jon Lester has maintained a strong ability to take the hill every five days. Making 32 starts in 2018, he has now made at least 31 starts every year since 2007. He posted a much better roto line than his teammate generating an 18-6 record with a 3.32 ERA, 1.31 WHIP while tossing 149 K over 181.2 IP. A couple of these numbers are solid, but this may be the final time we see rates this proficient.

Although Lester’s 3.32 ERA was satisfying, his underlying metrics were unappealing as he posted an ugly 4.39 FIP and a 4.57 SIERA in 2018. He saw his line drive rate reach a new high at 30.3% while his ground ball rate fell well beneath his 45.8% career rate down to 40.0% in 2018.

The punch-outs are also dissipating from the recently turned 35-year-old’s game. Lester's whiff rate tumbled down nearly 5% from 2017, down to 20.5% in 2018, and his four-seamer once again decreased in velocity down to an average of 91.0 MPH. He was also unable to get hitters to chase pitches as often, resulting in a seven-year low in walk rate with an 8.4% BB% in 2018.

Lester somehow managed an 80.3% strand rate which is sure to regress in 2019, especially if he upholds his 1.24 HR/9 from his last two seasons combined. Age is starting to set in with the 6’4” pitcher, and there’s a lot of miles on that left arm which is bound to catch up with him even more than it already has. The glory days are over with Lester, and it would be wise to toss this hot potato as far as you can before it’s too late.

More Fantasy Baseball Busts and Avoids




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Max Fried

Exits Start With Blister
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Hunter Dobbins

to Miss Rest of Season With Torn ACL
Nolan Arenado

Held Out of Lineup on Saturday
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Carlos Correa

Sitting on Saturday
Austin Riley

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Nolan Arenado

Exits Friday's Contest With Sprained Finger
Jake Burger

Expects to Play on Saturday
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Wyatt Langford

Records Four-Hit Night
Cal Raleigh

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Cody Bellinger

Swats Three Homers in Victory
Jake Burger

Leaves With Quad Discomfort on Friday
Carlos Correa

Exits Game With Mild Ankle Sprain
Edward Cabrera

Dealing with Posterior Elbow Discomfort
Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF