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Should you draft RJ Harvey or Kaleb Johnson in 2025 dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts? John Johnson breaks down fantasy football outlooks and landing spots for Harvey and Johnson.
The Denver Broncos drafted former UCF running back RJ Harvey in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Later, in the third round, the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted former Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson. Given where these guys were drafted, and the seemingly open backfields they join, both should have significant roles in Year 1.
When it comes to the question of whether you should draft them in dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts, you can't just look at draft capital, though. Team situations, the players' skill sets, and most importantly, the film should dictate your decision there, as well as the players' ADPs.
Let's take a look at the outlooks for both RBs and which one you should draft.
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Should You Draft RJ Harvey?
Absolutely. One of the great things about being a fantasy analyst like myself is that when you take bold stances on players who aren't very popular at the time, and something happens (even before the NFL season starts) that proves you right to some degree, you get to do a few victory laps.
Before the NFL Draft, the vast majority of the NFL community was in agreement that Harvey's age (24 years old), his pass-protection problems, and the fact that he played for UCF meant he wasn't an impressive prospect. That was stupid in hindsight. For them, it was hindsight, and for me, I guess it was foresight.
My 2025 Rookie RB Rankings (Not forgetting Hampton this time!)
1. Ashton Jeanty
2. Bhayshul Tuten
3. RJ Harvey
4. Dylan Sampson
5. Brashard Smith
6. Omarion Hampton
7. TreVeyon Henderson
8. Jaydon Blue
9. Ollie Gordon
10. Quinshon Judkins
11. Kaleb Johnson (not good)— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 1, 2025
The last point is frankly a foreshadowing of the second part of this article, funnily enough. But I've been calling Harvey an elite running back prospect for months now. I wrote articles as early as January (that weren't published until weeks later) that Harvey was an absolute stud.
And now, Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton wants to make Harvey his "Joker," a role that is sure to lead to massive fantasy production. Harvey is still 24 years old, yes, but why are people all of a sudden pretending that dynasty isn't managed mostly in three-year windows?
The fact that people are willing to draft 26-year-old running backs in the early rounds of startup drafts proves that Harvey's age isn't an issue. And he's a STUD. I remember distinctly watching Harvey's film back in January and being stunned. I thought I was about to get the fantasy steal of a lifetime.
RJ Harvey will compete to be the new RB1 for Denver❕
💥 1,578 rushing yards
🔥 22 rushing touchdowns
💪 897 yards after contact (6th-best)
👊 69 forced missed tackles (5th-best)
💨 32 rushes of 15+ yards (2nd-best)
🙌 1.39 yards per route run (7th-best)#BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/FMZtuvNyaQ— SleeperBroncos (@SleeperBroncos) April 26, 2025
Harvey's film was absolutely elite. Thankfully, due to most of the community writing him off, if you had read my articles and bought into them, you could have drafted Harvey in a bunch of leagues in the third and fourth rounds of rookie drafts. Good luck with that. Now, he's priced in the late first.
Every RJ Harvey breakaway run (15+yards) from 2024 (2nd NCAA behind Ashton Jeanty) #NFLDraft2025 pic.twitter.com/JIVBmlww7K
— Ray G (@RayGQue) March 21, 2025
He's incredibly elusive, an explosive-play machine, and a very capable receiver. And he's going to the Broncos, who have ... no one at running back right now. Sorry, but Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, and Tyler Badie are just not good.
Should You Draft Kaleb Johnson?
Absolutely not. For starters, all Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has done is disappoint fantasy managers with poor production from the players on his teams. He did it with the Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons, and now he's doing it with the Steelers.
"But John, Derrick Henry was great with Smith at OC, so this means Johnson will be too!" Well, what a surprise that one of the best running backs in NFL history and a surefire future Hall of Famer at a position that doesn't get many HoF candidates anymore was great. Smith isn't that dumb.
The final nail in the Arthur Smith coffin for me was when I saw our TE2 throw a pass to our TE3 while our TE1 pass blocked and our RB1 and WR1 jogged nothing routes in the opposite direction pic.twitter.com/3ppUrxx9lZ
— Akash (@YZR_Fantasy) February 27, 2024
Smith's play designs aren't very helpful for his players' fantasy prospects. Now that we have that out of the way, we can get into the crux of the problem -- Johnson is not a good running back. I wrote an article on him a few months ago, and now that he's been drafted by the Steelers -- well, he'll have plenty of opportunity, but it might not matter.
My biggest problem with Kaleb is that when the offensive line doesn't open up big holes for him, he does basically NOTHING. He's praise for his vision, but he can't even try to bounce this one outside. The correct play is to follow No. 85 and try to make the 1st defender miss. pic.twitter.com/PU2bnTc8Ro
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025
I created a series of tweets back in March about Johnson's problems, and they're damning. For starters, he's a poor athlete. He has the slowest acceleration of any running back who participated in the 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Combine. He's not fast and not quick.
And while he was praised for a great number of things in his final season, on film, you can see that nearly all of them can simply be attributed to his team's run-blocking. He has very poor vision, as you can see in the clip above. It just so happens that when his offensive line didn't open up huge holes for him, he usually did absolutely nothing.
For how much he's praised for his tackle breaking, Kaleb Johnson seems to go down every time he's tripped. Just get a hand on his leg and you can bring him down. OL opens up a huge hole that could've been a massive run here. pic.twitter.com/gbzjyHTJ17
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025
So, his vision is very poor, but so is his contact balance. There are endless clips of him being easily tripped. I lost count of how many I saw on his game film breakdowns. Horrendous plays like this are interspersed with long runs precipitated by amazing blocking and nothing else.
By the way, the Hawkeyes had the best run-blocking in the Power 4 in 2024. It's an absurd argument that because a lot of the offensive linemen aren't going to the NFL that the run-blocking statistic must just be made up. The examples are all over the film.
What an RB does after the catch usually dictates how much volume they'll get. Kaleb sees No. 20 unblocked before he catches the ball. It looks like No. 87 expected to block his guy to the outside and have Kaleb cut in. Not sure what Kaleb is doing here. pic.twitter.com/m4kecV3uRD
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025
He also plays with very little anticipation. That's one of the biggest issues I've found with his game. The above play is really perplexing. He often gets the ball, then seems not to know where he is on the field and fails to pay attention to defenders who have a chance of taking him down.
I don't understand the hype around him. It's all tied to his statistical production, but that's something that, for running backs, is often heavily tied to offensive line play, just like receiver production is massively skewed by scheme, quarterback play, and quality of defenses in college.
Verdict
My verdict from well before this year's NFL Draft and my current verdict are the same. You should draft plenty of Harvey and avoid Johnson like the plague. They're opposites of each other as players. Harvey has excellent vision, is incredibly elusive, and is a fantastic athlete. Johnson is none of those things.
As long as you continue to insist that college production at "big" schools, like those in the Big Ten, automatically correlates with a player being good in the NFL, you'll continue to delude yourself into making bad picks and not be able to fight against consensus when consensus convinces you to draft terrible players and ignore great ones.
Take Harvey, and don't let Johnson anywhere near any of your rosters. Sean Payton having as much faith in Harvey as he did should tell you all you need to know, though. He'll have a monster first season, while Johnson won't.
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