X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Shohei Ohtani - What Should We Expect in 2018 and Beyond?

A look at the potential 2018 fantasy baseball value of Japanese star Shohei Ohtani. RotoBaller's Pierre Camus analyzes future value for the prized free agent.

Shohei Ohtani is already the most talked-about player in the baseball world and he doesn't even belong to a Major League team. Not yet, at least.

When Giancarlo Stanton is practically an afterthought at the GM meetings, you know you have something big on your hands. The Japanese sensation has dominated headlines lately and is now down to a few select choices for his new home in the States. Wherever that happens to be, Ohtani will bring a skillset unlike anything we've seen since the days of Babe Ruth. As avid fantasy baseball players, we now have to decide what kind of value we are going to assign to this enticing, but still largely unknown commodity.

I'm not going to tell you where to draft Ohtani or what exactly to expect from him in year one, because that would be downright pretentious. I am going to discuss what we know about this tantalizing talent, look at possible landing spots, and determine just how we should begin valuing the most intriguing free agent/rookie of the 2018 season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Hype Machine, Begin!

New York Mets GM Sandy Alderson, a man used to being in the big-market spotlight, didn't understate the impact Ohtani could have in the majors. “I can’t remember anybody coming in creating this kind of interest. It will be fascinating to see what happens.’’

Seattle Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, now in charge of the team that brought Ichiro Mania to the U.S., was equally impressed. “When you see a guy hit a ball 500 feet, and throw a ball 100-mph, it’s a pretty unique skill set and there's a reason why it's attracted so much attention."

The question on everyone's mind is this: does Ohtani instantly become a dual-threat on the mound and in the batter's box? Some executives are a bit more skeptical (although it isn't stopping them from courting the international star).

"I think it would take a unique skill set, both physical and mental, to allow for those skills to play out, proper health and recovery and all those elements, as well," Rangers GM Jon Daniels said.

If Ohtani keeps the same routine as he had in Japan, he’d become a rotation arm and play in the field until the day before his scheduled start, and the day after his start. The biggest variable is whether he would play in the outfield in the National League or as a DH in the American League. Consequently, a team could choose to use him in the bullpen on a semi-regular basis, while keeping his bat in the lineup five times a week.

Early indications are that Ohtani insists on staying somewhere on the West Coast, but does not care which league he ends up in. Stepping into a winning ballclub doesn't seem to be a consideration either, as the Padres and Giants are in the same mix as the Mariners, who seem to be the front runner currently. At this point, all bets are still on the table in terms of usage, meaning we cannot rightfully predict how many AB or IP he will log as a rookie. In that case, we must look at whatever data we have available and project his value based on how productive he has been on average each time he steps up to the plate or takes the mound. Spoiler: early indicators are pretty good.

 

Just How Good Can Shohei Ohtani Be?

In five seasons playing for Nippon in Japan, Ohtani has posted a 2.52 ERA in 82 starts and three relief appearances, striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings. Offensively, he owns a slash line of .286/.358/.500 with a modest power/speed profile. He certainly is young enough to develop his tools, but we must be realistic and look at a reasonable comparison based on what we know. Let's start with the offensive aspect of his game. Since we only have a five-year data sample so far, let's do a fair compare/contrast of two other Japanese players who made a big impact in the majors.

The first and most obvious comp will be Ichiro, especially if Ohtani does sign with the Mariners. There are actually quite a few similarities in their offensive game, which I'll highlight below, although Ichiro's trademark speed is not one trait that Ohtani will bring with him.

Let's also look at how Ohtani stacks up to Hideki Matsui in their first five seasons in Japan. Matsui, the next most illustrious Japanese import of recent times, arrived in the Bronx at the age of 29, a bit past the typical prime age for professional athletes, but still had a long, prosperous Major League career. He was instantly an All-Star in his first two seasons and led the league in games played through each of his first three seasons, being branded an Iron Man before injuries and aging took their course. These tables represent an average season in the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization.

Note: Ohtani and Ichiro began their career at the age of 18, whereas Matsui was 19 in his first season.

1st five seasons AVG HR RBI R AB
Hideki Matsui .290 25.6 75 73 431
Ichiro Suzuki .349 11 45 66 354
Shohei Ohtani .286 9.6 33 30 234

 

Obviously, Matsui wasn't pitching each week and racked up many more at-bats, but it's still fair to evaluate them side-by-side to get an idea of Ohtani's potential. Even if we are slightly generous and double Ohtani's at-bats to catch up, his power numbers are well below Matsui. On the other hand, his batting average is similar to Matsui but well below Ichiro, who had a knack for reaching base with his unique swing and ability to beat out infield grounders with his speed. Ohtani was well below each in terms of runs scored, although that can fluctuate, depending on the talent surrounding a player.

Ohtani's club, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, improved steadily each year since he arrived until a disappointing 60-83 finish in 2017. They had a winning season in three of his five seasons there, including an 88-52 record in 2016. Overall, the club can be considered a quality team that rose steadily as Ohtani came to prominence as a young player. While his individual offensive numbers don't stand out as extraordinary, it's clear he had a positive impact on his team.

Now, let's look at the same numbers parsed out over a per-at-bat basis since Ohtani's usage is drastically lower than the other two, due to his service as a pitcher.

1st five seasons AVG AB/HR AB/RBI AB/R AB/YR
Hideki Matsui .290  16.8  5.75  5.94 431
Ichiro Suzuki .349 32.2 7.83 5.33 354
Shohei Ohtani .286  21.5  6.23  6.9 234

 

Matsui clearly wins the power battle here as exepcted, while Ohtani does show more pop than Ichiro on an AB/HR basis. Ohtani also drove in runs at a slightly higher rate and seems to sit squarely in between these two former greats in terms of offensive ability.

The big difference between Ichiro and the other two is speed. Ichiro stole 116 bases in those first five seasons in Japan and went on to steal 509 bases in 17 MLB seasons (and still going). Ohtani swiped a grand total of 13 bases in five seasons, which made a statistical comparison completely unnecessary. Ohtani is not really close to Ichiro's tremendous average either, which should make fantasy owners aware that he may not challenge for the batting title in his MLB tenure.

Without Ichiro's speed or Matsui's power, Ohtani profiles as an above-average offensive player, but not an elite one. His true value comes with his versatility, as he shows more promise as a starting pitcher who can hit, rather than a hitter who can step in for relief on occasion.

On the pitching front, two names stand out as Japanese imports who were near-dominant from the beginning. Hideo Nomo also spent exactly five seasons in the Nippon League before coming to L.A., although he began his career at the age of 21.

Yu Darvish is as good a comp as you can get; he began at the age of 18 and actually played for the same club, leaving just a couple of years before Ohtani debuted for Nippon Ham. He also plays in the current era, unlike Nomo who pitched in Japan in the early 90s.

1st five seasons ERA WHIP K/9 K/BB IP
Hideo Nomo 3.15 1.31 10.3 2.04 1051.3
Yu Darvish 2.20 1.02 8.1 3.00 834.1
Shohei Ohtani 2.52 1.07 10.3 3.12 543.0

 

The first takeaway here is that Ohtani's K rate surpasses Darvish and equals Nomo, yet with much better command. As a reminder, Darvish led the AL in strikeouts and nearly won the Cy Young award in 2013. Nomo won NL Rookie of the Year and led his league in strikeouts twice. Ohtani hasn't logged nearly as many innings, but in the current era where relievers are counted on as early as the sixth inning to take over, that doesn't matter. If he becomes a starting rotation piece in the majors, Ohtani won't be called on to go more than five or six innings at a time in order to keep him fresh for lineup duty the rest of the week.

Ohtani has maintained excellent ratios as well, with numbers that line up almost perfectly with Darvish. Despite spending nearly all of his MLB career in a hitter-friendly environment in Texas, Darvish has maintained a 3.42 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. If Ohtani ends up in San Francisco, squaring off against the #3 or #4 starters from NL West opponents, his upside as a starter becomes tantalizing.

As a reliever, he would have far less value unless used as a closer, which is unlikely. Either way, it appears his ratios could stay well above average, but he will be hard-pressed to do much in the counting stat categories because he will be treated carefully by managers and likely held to a pitch count. The paradox thus lies in the fact that Ohtani projects to be far more effective as a pitcher than a hitter, yet will bring fantasy owners less overall value this way.

 

Conclusion

There is no doubt that Shohei Ohtani will be worth a high draft pick no matter where he winds up. Even if he should choose a team like San Francisco or San Diego, who were scraping the bottom of the NL West last season, he lands in a favorable pitcher's park. In Seattle, he would boost an already strong lineup and could benefit from the DH rule by staying fresher between starts. Ohtani brings a great deal of value to a real-life club in terms of dual-threat productivity and even more from a marketing standpoint. It's obvious why so many teams are clamoring for his services.

While Ohtani has everything you could possibly want out of player, including humility and a team-friendly contract, it would be a mistake to count on him being a fantasy baseball league-winner in year one. Until we know how he will be used and how he manages to maintain that pace in the majors, he should be treated as an early risk-reward pick, but not a first or second rounder. Acclimating to the majors should be no problem for him. Finding the best way to translate his skills into stats that matter might be a conundrum that for whichever Major League team signs him. This alone should keep him out of the first round discussion in re-draft leagues. Dynasty league owners, on the other hand, should get ready to pony up for his services; he promises to be one of the most highly skilled players in the game and could be a valuable asset for years to come, even if treated as two separate players on fantasy rosters. While I would value Ohtani the pitcher more than Ohtani the batter, both show great promise. Did I mention yet that he's only 23 years old?

 

More Top MLB Prospects




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nolan Arenado

Ready for Second Half
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Back in Action to Begin Second Half
Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF