July 14, 2017

Troy Klauder recommends players to trade away in the second half. These players are likely to regress and can be sold at their peak value.

The All-Star break gives fantasy owners the opportunity to reflect on their roster and gear up for the second half. Knowing which players to sell high on and which players to to hang on to can be the difference between first place in your league and falling short of the championship.

Savvy fantasy owners can recognize when one of their own players is at their peak value, and that they should be traded.

In this article, I will be recommending six highly-owned players who had great first halves, but likely won't continue their success in the second-half.

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Sell High Candidates - Batters

Chris Taylor (3B, LAD)

Chris Taylor has burst on to the scene in 2017, going from an organizational depth utility player to an everyday piece of the Dodgers lineup. In 72 games this year, Taylor has 10 homers and 11 steals with a .285 average, and on the surface, he would seem like a great player to own in the second-half. However, if you dig deeper into Taylor's peripherals, you will see that there is some major regression on the way. His batting average is being supported by an insanely high .380 BABIP. That means that he's been incredibly lucky with batted balls, with lots of them are falling in for hits. Taylor's BABIP should regress mightily, and his batting average is going to come plummeting down with it. Likewise, Taylor has a 28.2% K-rate, so he's not making enough contact to support his current batting average. Taylor also has a 20.4% HR/FB rate, which suggests that he won't be able to replicate his power output. He's actually hitting less fly balls than he was last year, at 29.5% compared to 2016's 33.3%. With his current statistics, Taylor can get you a solid haul in a trade, so pull the trigger now before regression hits him.

Scooter Gennett (2B, CIN)

Scooter Gennett has worked his way into everyday playing time for the Reds after his incredible first half. Gennett has batted .311 with 15 homers in his 73 games this year, so it's understandably tough for Reds manager Bryan Price to keep Gennett out of the lineup right now. However, when Gennett slows his pace, his playing time could see a sharp decrease, with Jose Peraza ready to take his job at second. Gennett has an absurd 25.4% HR/FB rate, and it's bizarre to see him hit so many home runs when his season high was 14 homers before this year. At 27-years-old, it's just tough to buy that his power spike is legit. So with an impending drop in power and loss of playing time, it's a great time to get rid of Scooter, as his value has likely peaked.

Trey Mancini (DH, BAL)

25-year-old rookie Trey Mancini has been destroying the ball for the Orioles this year, putting up a 133 wRC+, batting .312 with 14 homers. Mancini owners should be more than happy with what they've gotten out of him, but it's time to sell high before he backslides. Mancini has a .385 BABIP, so his .312 batting average isn't going to last for long. He also has a very poor 5.7% walk-rate, so he won't be on base very much once his average falls, meaning he won't score as many runs or contribute so many RBIs. Combined with a 26.4% K-rate, it's probable that Mancini's poor plate discipline will come back to bite him. Therefore, he's a great player to sell for a more established and legitimate asset.

Sell High Candidates - Pitchers

Ervin Santana (SP, MIN)

By conventional metrics, Ervin Santana is having a fantastic year, putting up a 2.99 ERA in 120 1/3 innings. However, if you dig deeper into the 34-year-old's numbers, you'll find that Santana is a ticking time-bomb. He's actually already regressed from last season, with his K-rate dropping from 19.9% last year to 18.8% this year, as well as an increased walk-rate from 7.1% to 8.3%. Santana's ugly 4.83 FIP gives a more accurate representation of how he will perform in the second half. He's riding on an incredibly low .217 BABIP that isn't going to last much longer, plus an 83.6% strand rate that's sure to regress. The bottom is going to fall out quick on Santana, so sell high while you can.

Jason Vargas (SP, KC)

Jason Vargas's 2.62 ERA ranks him third among all qualified starters, meaning you should be able to get a nice haul for him in a deal. Now would be the time to make that deal, since Vargas is going to be dealing with some regression in the second half. Vargas only has an 18.2% K-rate, so not only does he fail to contribute much to the strikeout category, but he also relies heavily on batted balls. That's reflected in his 3.79 FIP, which more accurately describes his true talent level. Likewise, his Deserved Run Average, or DRA, is at 3.93. This means Vargas is still a decent pitcher, but you can sell him for much more than that right now.

David Robertson (RP, CHW)

White Sox closer David Robertson is different from everyone else on this list, as he doesn't have any regression coming his way. However, with the White Sox in a full out rebuild, he's likely to follow the path of Jose Quintana and get traded to a contender. This is a risky spot for a closer, as he may be traded to a team that already has an established closer. In that case, Robertson would move to a setup role, and lose all of his saves. At that point, unless you're in a holds league, nearly all of Robertson's value is gone. It would be a smart move to get a positive return on Robertson instead of risking a complete loss.

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