RADIO
After the whirlwind of emotions that Friday's events brought to Valhalla Golf Club, the exciting day we were treated to on Saturday did everything it could to restore focus on the year's second major. The final day will begin with a jam-packed leaderboard that features Colin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele tied at the top with a slew of guys on their heels at one and two shots back. Valhalla has never failed to provide fireworks, and tomorrow looks ripe to produce more of the same.
In a third round that seemed to serve up highlights on repeat for most of the afternoon, strokes gained numbers are pretty healthy for many different guys. For that reason, I'll be putting as much weight on first-round performance as I will the most recent third-round since both weather and course conditions for Sunday's round will be closer to what players saw on Thursday than either of the last two days.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. The usual strategy is finding guys who played well the previous day(s), particularly the players who have shown strong ability with their irons. However, it's also important to make roster decisions that give you ownership leverage over other players in your contest. This is usually done by taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
Weather, Course Conditions & Tee Times
Conditions will remain calm and leave the course in the same getable condition we've seen all week. Eight to 12 miles per hour is nothing out of the ordinary for these guys, so going after the ones in the morning will be more about taking advantage of smoother greens than avoiding any wind or weather.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys that have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday, and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point. Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, and finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite play: Scottie Scheffler admittedly didn't look like himself on Saturday, and in turn didn't play like himself either after carding his first over-par round in 41 rounds going back to last August. This is completely understandable given what has happened to him over the past 48 hours. However, being who he is, he likely won't produce two dud rounds in a row. So if you can find a way to get to his hefty price tag, do it.
Other options: Rory McIlroy is always a shoo-in for climbing a leaderboard on Sunday with no real shot at winning. He couldn't buy a putt Saturday with all the money in the world, but he still put on a stripe show from tee to green.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Bryson Dechambeau has steadily put together three solid rounds to put him in position to secure his second major championship. He's fourth in the field in strokes gained off the tee through three rounds (+1.32) and has gained almost three-and-a-half strokes on the greens over Rounds 2 and 3. If the wedges and irons cooperate, look for him to make a run tomorrow.
Other options: Cam Smith
Bryson DeChambeau EAGLES on 18 😱
He's ONE BACK off the lead!#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/9vODJiMbXF
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 18, 2024
$8,000+
Favorite play: Jordan Spieth has played decent this week, currently ranking 10th in strokes gained off the tee (+1.11) and 19th in strokes gained tee to green (+1.85). It would be nearly impossible for him to chase down the leaders in such scorable conditions. However, the 16th-ranked player on the PGA Tour in Round 4 stroke average could certainly do more than enough to be a solid showdown pick.
Other options: Tony Finau is putting on a ball-striking clinic this week (leading the field in strokes gained on approach), but hasn't made a putt since Thursday. Look for that to change tomorrow.
$7,000+
Favorite play: Alex Noren has been all over the place this week. He started like a man on a mission gaining over a stroke everywhere Thursday except off the tee, but has struggled to get anything going since. As someone who's lived on the fringe of getting major starts over the last few years, he has a great opportunity to give himself some cushion for the rest of the season with a strong performance tomorrow.
Other options: Harris English, Russell Henley
$6,000+
🤿🏊 A spectator stripped down & jumped into the water to retrieve a club for Adam Hadwin during round 2 💀
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) May 18, 2024
Favorite play: Adam Hadwin has been nursing a sick putter all season, and this week at Valhalla has been no different. The Canadian gained +2.62 strokes on the greens during Thursday's round before losing -3.69 strokes on them over the last two. However, as the 37th-ranked player on tour in Round 4 stroke average and someone who has made a career from being sharp with the putter, things can only go up tomorrow as long as all of his clubs stay dry this time.
Other options: Adam Svensson, Brian Harman
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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