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RotoBaller Experts League - Dynasty League Recap (Rounds 11-17)


Last month, 12 RotoBaller writers came together to do a live dynasty league startup on the internet. This article is the next in a series that will evaluate draft results in order to give readers a look into current dynasty values, and discuss the best and worst values in the draft.

Today we take a look at rounds 11-17, and provide some draft analysis.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Dynasty Draft Analysis - Rounds 11-17

The crucial middle rounds of a draft can make or break a team. This is especially true in dynasty formats, where you are committing to players long-term and may leave your team bereft of depth if you choose unwisely. This is also the time to take calculated risks in order to glean value from rookies or unproven players. Speaking of rookies, they were plentiful throughout this segment of the draft. The rookies started flying in round 10 and continued from that point on until the conclusion. A total of 21 rookies were selected in the 84 picks throughout these rounds.

In addition, quarterbacks began to fly off the board in much greater numbers. Whereas only five QB were taken in the first seven rounds, there were a total of 17 QB in rounds 11-17. I personally have been advocating for waiting on a signal caller in standard leagues, but found myself pulling the trigger on Cam Newton early on because of the dynasty format and a lack of more appealing options at my draft spot in rounds 3-4. Although only two of the writers appeared to truly embrace the Zero RB strategy, most teams padded their RB numbers equally in these rounds. 26 RB were picked in the first seven rounds, 29 RB came off the board in rounds 11-17. It will be interesting to see which group winds up being the higher performing one this season given the recent fluctuation in running back performance.

 

Best Pick - Charles Sims (RB, TB), 11.08 Overall

(Nathan Powell, @NPowellFF)

After waiting until the 10th round to take his first running back, Nathan Powell grabbed Sims next as part of a Zero RB strategy. He wisely grabbed this Gio Bernard clone three rounds later than the real thing and wound up with a player who totaled 1,090 yards from scrimmage and four TD in a part time role. His greatest asset is as a pass-catcher in a PPR format, as he tallied 51 receptions on 70 targets. Sims will deliver solid RB2-type value in a deep league such as this even if his role doesn't grow significantly.

Sims also makes a wise pick because of Doug Martin's injury history. If Martin should go down, Sims immediately vaults into a top-ten RB value. The Bucs will continue to help Jameis Winston along by keeping the short passing game a priority. Sims is entering his third year as a pro and could prove useful for many years to come. It doesn't hurt if you're a Tampa Bay fan either, right Nathan?

 

Worst Pick - Mike Wallace (WR, BAL), 12.12 Overall

(Chris Durell, @Jager_Bombs9)

Taking a 30 year-old receiver in a dynasty draft is questionable enough if you're not talking about a star player. Taking one that couldn't manage more than 473 yards and two TD last season and has seen his Y/R drop almost every year since 2010 is even more questionable. Taking a WR who is joining his third team in three years and failed his conditioning test less than a month ago is just baffling. For a player whose greatest asset was his downfield speed, it makes you wonder if Wallace even belongs on an NFL roster at this point.

In all likelihood, Wallace will have a role on the Ravens this season. After all, they are writing his paychecks at the moment. He may match his numbers from last season, but how much good will that really do? With Steve Smith due back, Breshad Perriman primed to become a primary target and Kamar Aiken returning as the most productive Ravens WR last year, Wallace figures to be fourth in line at best. Wallace didn't play in the first pre-season game and wasn't even targeted in the second game. This pick could have been better spent on a rookie like Tajae Sharpe or a young receiver due to actually improve, like Robert Woods.

 

Riskiest Pick - Martavis Bryant (WR, PIT), 14.02 Overall

(Justin Bales, @BalesSJustin)

Despite never being more than a WR2 on his own team and never playing for a full season, Bryant has the talent to be a dominant NFL receiver. Bryant has scored 14 TD in 21 games and posted a 17.3 AVG in his two seasons. That said, he continues to get in his own way and could become another casualty of the league's substance abuse policy. Steelers GM Kevin Colbert said it best, "He is at a crossroads of his professional life, and he needs to understand significant changes need to occur in his personal life if he wants to regain his career as a Pittsburgh Steeler."

A 14th round pick isn't too early to take a risk like this, but it remains a huge roll of the dice. For a player who is already guaranteed to miss the entire season, Bryant could become an empty WR spot on this team permanently if he doesn't conquer his personal demons first. Otherwise, every other owner will be jealous when Bryant is making big plays in 2017 as a 14th round pick the year before.

 

Biggest Upside Pick - Jared Goff (QB, LA), 17.03 Overall

(Matt Terrelle, @supermt)

This has to go to the #1 overall pick of the 2016 draft, QB Jared Goff. How much he plays this season remains to be seen, but this is obviously a long-term selection. This is also a risky pick, as evidenced by the brief careers of Tim Couch, David Carr and JaMarcus Russell (wow, haven't had to dredge up that name in a while). Fortunately, the list of recent QB successes is slightly longer, including Andrew Luck and Cam Newton among others. Goff obviously profiles closer to Luck than Newton, but with slightly less mobility. In three seasons at Cal, Goff completed 62.3% of his passes. In his junior year, he threw for an impressive 4,714 yards and a 43/13 TD/INT rate.

The Rams are still a rebuilding team, and I'm not talking about their stadium either. Todd Gurley is a stud in the backfield, but their top receiver is currently Tavon Austin. The rest of the receiving corps is either young and unproven or too inconsistent to count on. Eventually, fellow draft picks Pharoh Cooper, Mike Thomas and Tyler Higbee will give Goff a slew of options on the outside to complement the running game and recall the glory days of the Rams when Eric Dickerson, Jim Everett, Henry Ellard and Willie Anderson were running things. It was shocking to see such an obvious potential star last until the 17th round in a dynasty league where youth rules.

 

General Analysis

The middle of this dynasty draft was a true reflection of the current trends in fantasy football. In past years, nearly every draft-worthy running back would have been long gone by round 11. Instead, there was an equal quantity of runners taken and they may ultimately provide just as much value than those selected earlier. The quarterbacks represented the best value in these rounds by far, with veterans such as Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford all readily available in the double-digit rounds. Pairing a veteran QB in the middle rounds with a younger prospect later on could give fantasy owners a good balance between short and long term needs.

When the depth at certain positions such as receiver start to become questionable, pulling the trigger on a rookie becomes the norm. With so many changes and injuries year-to-year, last year's champ could easily become this year's chump. Dynasty owners always have to be forward-thinking and flexible. The more I reflect on these draft results, the more I am certain that this RotoBaller dynasty league is sure to be competitive for many years to come.

 




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